948 resultados para Bayes credible intervals
Resumo:
Direct and simultaneous observation of root growth and plant water uptake is difficult because soils are opaque. X-ray imaging techniques such as projection radiography or Computer Tomography (CT) offer a partial alternative to such limitations. Nevertheless, there is a trade-off between resolution, large field-of-view and 3-dimensionality: With the current state of the technology, it is possible to have any two. In this study, we used X-ray transmission through thin-slab systems to monitor transient saturation fields that develop around roots as plants grow. Although restricted to 2-dimensions, this approach offers a large field-of-view together with high spatial and dynamic resolutions. To illustrate the potential of this technology, we grew peas in 1 cm thick containers filled with soil and imaged them at regular intervals. The dynamics of both the root growth and the water content field that developed around the roots could be conveniently monitored. Compared to other techniques such as X-ray CT, our system is relatively inexpensive and easy to implement. It can potentially be applied to study many agronomic problems, such as issues related to the impact of soil constraints (physical, chemical or biological) on root development.
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Objective - To assess the relationship between infrarenal aortic diameter and subsequent all-cause mortality in men aged 65 years or older. Methods and Results - Aortic diameter was measured using ultrasound in 12 203 men aged 65 to 83 years as part of a trial of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms. A range of cardiovascular risk factors was also documented. Mortality over the next 3 to 7 years was assessed using record linkage. Initial aortic diameter was categorized into 10 intervals, and the relationship between increasing diameter and subsequent mortality was explored using Cox proportional hazard models. Median diameter increased from 21.4 mm in the youngest men to 22.1 mm in the oldest men. The cumulative all-cause mortality increased in a graded fashion with increasing aortic diameter. Using the diameter interval 19 to 22 mm as the reference, the adjusted hazard ratio for all-cause mortality increased from 1.26 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.44; P = 0.001) for aortic diameters of 23 to 26 mm to 2.38 (95% CI: 1.22, 4.61; P = 0.011) for aortic diameters of 47 to 50 mm. Analysis of causes of death indicated that cardiovascular disease was an important contributor to this increase. Conclusion - Infrarenal aortic diameter is an independent marker of subsequent all-cause mortality.
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The population structure, reproductive period, and juvenile recruitment of Panopeus americanus were studied in order to enhance knowledge of its life cycle and reproductive strategy and promote the maintenance of its natural stocks in an impacted region. Specimens were collected in the remnant human-impacted mangrove at Araca, state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, at two-month intervals from January to November 2005, at low tide, with a capture effort by three people. The crabs were measured (carapace width, CW) and sexed. The total catch was 275 animals, including 132 males (48.0%); 127 females (46.2%), of which 39 were ovigerous (14.2% of total catch); and 16 individuals whose sex could not be identified (5.8%). No correlation was observed between water temperature and the number of collected individuals; however, there was a significant, positive correlation with salinity. Males were significantly larger than females. The size-frequency distribution was bimodal, reflecting the occurrende of more than one recruitment pulse and the differential abundance of adults during the period of study. The overall sex ratio was 1:0.97 favoring males, and was not significantly different from the expected value, i.e., this population fits the anomalous pattern of sex occurrence in size classes. Ovigerous females were captured in all sampled months, which explain the continuous recruitment observed. Expected low levels of individuals of different size classes in the population were not confirmed. All population aspects found here allowed us to infer that this population of P. americanus is well established in the impacted mangrove by virtue of its reproductive strategy.
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Several studies have reported the occurrence of hermaphroditism in caridean shrimps of the family Hippolytidae. Here we provide the first observations of population traits from the small Western Atlantic shrimp, Hippolyte obliquimanus, to determine its sexual system using descriptive and experimental approaches. Specimens were collected at 2-month intervals from March 2005 to May 2006 in Ubatuba Bay on the northern coast of the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The sex of individuals was checked and morphometric dimensions (carapace length, maximum pleura of second abdominal segment width, appendix masculina length, maximum propodus width, and dactyl length of the third pereopod) were also analyzed. The gonads were dissected and examined for signs of abnormalities. The possibility of sex change was experimentally evaluated under laboratory conditions. A total of 674 specimens were collected: 211 males, 339 non-ovigerous females, and 124 ovigerous females. The carapace length ranged from 0.55 to 3.20 mm, with females being significantly larger than males. Hippolyte obliquimanus showed sexual dimorphism in the third pereopod, absence of cincinnuli in the first pleopod, and no reduction of the appendix masculina in the largest males. All males examined had only testes, and all females had only ovaries. There was no sex change observed in the experiments. Together, these data indicate a population with females reaching larger sizes than males, males with a well-developed appendix masculina, and no transitional individuals. The results presented allow characterizing H. obliquimanus as a gonochoric species.
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The distribution and density of a population of the narrowback mud crab Panopeus americanus were evaluated, with emphasis on the different developmental stages (juveniles and adults) and sexes. Specimens were collected in a remnant human-impacted mangrove at Araca on the northern coast of Sao Paulo, Brazil, at two-month intervals from January through July 2006, using 1m x 1m sample plots randomly distributed in the intertidal zone. The population was abundant, with a mean density of 14.3 +/- 9.3 individuals/m(2). Larger individuals were more abundant in the upper and middle intertidal zones, whereas smaller crabs were predominant in the lower intertidal and thus remained submerged longer. Males and juveniles were homogeneously distributed. Females preferred regions farther from the waterline. A clustered distribution pattern suggested gregarious behaviour and settling of juveniles in the vicinity of the adults` habitats, in an adaptive process as a function of tidal rhythms.
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Objective: To assess from a health sector perspective the incremental cost-effectiveness of interventions for generalized anxiety disorder (cognitive behavioural therapy [CBT] and serotonin and noradrenaline reuptake inhibitors [SNRIs]) and panic disorder (CBT, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors [SSRIs] and tricyclic antidepressants [TCAs]). Method: The health benefit is measured as a reduction in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), based on effect size calculations from meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials. An assessment on second stage filters ('equity', 'strength of evidence', 'feasibility' and 'acceptability to stakeholders') is also undertaken to incorporate additional factors that impact on resource allocation decisions. Costs and benefits are calculated for a period of one year for the eligible population (prevalent cases of generalized anxiety disorder/panic disorder identified in the National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing, extrapolated to the Australian population in the year 2000 for those aged 18 years and older). Simulation modelling techniques are used to present 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) around the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Results: Compared to current practice, CBT by a psychologist on a public salary is the most cost-effective intervention for both generalized anxiety disorder (A$6900/DALY saved; 95% UI A$4000 to A$12 000) and panic disorder (A$6800/DALY saved; 95% UI A$2900 to A$15 000). Cognitive behavioural therapy results in a greater total health benefit than the drug interventions for both anxiety disorders, although equity and feasibility concerns for CBT interventions are also greater. Conclusions: Cognitive behavioural therapy is the most effective and cost-effective intervention for generalized anxiety disorder and panic disorder. However, its implementation would require policy change to enable more widespread access to a sufficient number of trained therapists for the treatment of anxiety disorders.
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Background-C- reactive protein (CRP) levels have been shown to predict a number of cardiovascular outcomes. CRP levels have also been found to be elevated in patients with abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs). The aim of this study was to assess the relation between CRP levels and rates of expansion of small AAAs. Methods and Results-A cohort of men with small aneurysms was identified in a trial of screening with ultrasound scanning. After initial screening, men were rescanned at 6- to 12-month intervals. CRP levels were measured at the first follow-up visit. Rates of expansion and risk factors for expansion were assessed with the use of data from 545 men who attended for at least 1 scan after CRP levels were measured. These men were followed for a median of 48 (range, 5 to 69) months. The mean annual rate of expansion was 1.6 mm. The median CRP level was 2.6 mg/L in men with the smaller AAAs (30 to 39 mm, n=433) compared with 3.5 mg/L in men with larger AAAs (40 to 54 mm, n=112) (P=0.007). The multivariate age-adjusted logistic model confirmed initial aortic diameter to be the only factor associated with rapid expansion with an odds ratio of 7.2 (95% CI, 4.3,12.2) for an initial diameter of 40 to 54 mm relative to one of 30 to 39 mm. Conclusions-Most small aneurysms expand slowly. CRP levels are elevated in larger aneurysms but do not appear to be associated with rapid expansion. The most useful predictor of aneurysmal expansion in men is aortic diameter.
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Hippolyte obliquimanus is a small, gonochoric shrimp found in algal substrates along the western Atlantic coast of Brazil, particularly in association with seaweed of the genus Sargassum. We studied population features (sexual ratio, reproductive period and temporal distribution) of H. obliquimanus in southeastern Brazil, including its relationships with the seasonality of banks of this alga. Specimens were collected at two-monthly intervals from March 2005 to January 2006, in Ubatuba Bay. The sex of individuals was checked, and the carapace length measured. In total, 668 individuals were collected: 211 males (0.70-2.50 mm carapace length), 341 non-ovigerous females (0.55-2.90 mm), and 116 ovigerous females (1.55-3.20 mm). Hippolyte obliquimanus showed seasonal-continuous reproduction and variable continuous recruitment. The highest number of animals (75%) was collected in fall-winter. The percentages of ovigerous females/total females (fall-winter: 27%; spring-summer: 26%) and the sexual ratio (fall-winter: 31%; spring-summer: 32%) were practically equal in both periods. The sexual ratio showed a predominance of females in almost all size classes, and we detected a new sex ratio pattern for this species. The seasonal variation in the number of individuals can be related to its migration to deeper areas, due to the decrease in the abundance of Sargassum sp. in shallower waters in spring-summer.
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The present study (N532) investigated attentional modulation of the startle blink reflex at long lead intervals under conditions of differing emotional valence. Participants performed a visual discrimination and counting task while coloured lights indicated whether it was possible for the participant to receive an electrotactile shock (threat of shock) or if no shock would be presented (safe). Latency and magnitude of startle responses to probes during inter-stimulus intervals were facilitated during threat periods relative to safe periods. Startle latency and magnitude modulation were enhanced during attended discrimination and counting task stimuli relative to startle during ignored stimuli. This attention effect did not vary under threat or safe conditions, suggesting that attentional startle modulation is not affected by the emotional valence of the context.
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Inorganic nutrients play a critical role in determining benthic community structure in tropical seas. This study examined the impact of adding inorganic nutrients (ammonium and phosphate) on the isotopic composition of 2 reef-building corals, Pocillopora damicornis and Heliofungia actiniformis, on the southern Great Barrier Reef. The addition of elevated nutrients to patch reefs that pond at low tide did not perturb the C:N ratio of either species or their symbiotic dinoflagellates. The C:N ratios were significantly higher in material extracted from the skeleton (14.8 +/- 1.50 and 10.8 +/- 1.42) than either host (7.6 +/- 0.87 and 6.0 +/- 0.71) or symbiotic dinoflagellates (5.7 +/- 0.48 and 6.9 +/- 0.66) (P. damicornis and H. actiniformis respectively; 95 confidence intervals). The ratio of acquired N to background N suggests that the added dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) accounted for 50 to 100% of total nitrogen within the tissues of P. damicornis and H. actiniformis at the end of the experiment. The addition of the isotopically depleted nutrients (delta(15) N = 0parts per thousand) to patch reefs significantly decreased delta(15)N from control values of between 3 and 4 to values to below 1 in the case of all compartments, while delta(13)C values were relatively unresponsive to nutrient treatments. These findings suggest that coral delta(15)N has the potential to provide a historical record of the delta(15)N of dissolved nitrogen surrounding reef-building corals and their symbiotic dinoflagellates.
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Objective: To determine the age-standardised prevalence of peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and associated risk factors, particularly smoking. Method: Design: Cross-sectional survey of a randomly selected population. Setting: Metropolitan area of Perth, Western Australia. Participants: Men aged between 65-83 years. Results: The adjusted response fraction was 77.2%. Of 4,470 men assessed, 744 were identified as having PAD by the Edinburgh Claudication Questionnaire and/or the ankle-brachial index of systolic blood pressure, yielding an age-standardised prevalence of PAD of 15.6% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 14.5%, 16.6%). The main risk factors identified in univariate analyses were increasing age, smoking current (OR=3.9, 95% CI 2.9-5.1) or former (OR=2.0, 95% CI 1.6-2.4), physical inactivity (OR=1.4, 95% CI 1.2-1.7), a history of angina (OR=2.2, 95% CI 1.8-2.7) and diabetes mellitus (OR=2.1, 95% CI 1.7-2.6). The multivariate analysis showed that the highest relative risk associated with PAD was current smoking of 25 or more cigarettes daily (OR=7.3, 95% CI 4.2-12.8). In this population, 32% of PAD was attributable to current smoking and a further 40% was attributable to past smoking by men who did not smoke currently. Conclusions: This large observational study shows that PAD is relatively common in older, urban Australian men. In contrast with its relationship to coronary disease and stroke, previous smoking appears to have a long legacy of increased risk of PAD. Implications: This research emphasises the importance of smoking as a preventable cause of PAD.
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We conducted two psychophysical experiments to investigate the relationship between processing mechanisms for exocentric distance and direction. In the first experiment, the task was to discriminate exocentric distances. In the second one, the task was to discriminate exocentric directions. The individual effects of distance and direction on each task were dissociated by analyzing their corresponding psychophysical functions. Under stereoscopicviewing conditions, distancejudgments of excentric intervals were not affected by exocentric direction. However, directionjudgments were influenced by the distance between the pair of stimuli. Therefore, the mechanism processing exocentric direction is dependent on exocentric distance, but the mechanism processing exocentric distance does not require exocentric: direction measures. As a result, we suggest that exocentric distance and direction are hierarchically processed, with distance preceding direction. Alternatively, and more probably, a necessary condition for processing the exocentric direction between two stimuli may be to know the location of each of them.
Resumo:
Although stingless bees are capable of maintaining their nest temperature within certain limits, brood production of several species declines or even completely stops during periods of low ambient temperature. In the present study, we investigated whether the brood production of the meliponine species Nannotrigona testaceicornis can be artificially increased through heating the colonies during the cold season. For this, we monitored the rate of brood cell production of seven hives in intervals of 24 hours under two different experimental conditions: 1. without; and 2. with heating. Each treatment (first with and subsequently without heating) lasted for nine consecutive days. The ambient temperature (TA) during both experimental periods was very similar (TA(WITH) = 16.1 degrees C; TA(WITHOUT) = 16.3 degrees C). On average, the colonies built 3.6 brood cells per day without and 15.8 brood cells per day with artificial heating (Wilcoxon Rank Sum test: T = 10, Z = 4, P < 0.001). In both treatments, the rate of brood cell production increased with increasing environmental temperature (Spearman Rank Correlation: R(WITH) = 0.71, P = 0.02; R(WITHOUT) = 0.66, P = 0.05). We concluded that artificial heating during cold periods increased the brood cell production in N. testaceicornis Our results indicate that the use of heaters for stingless bee hives during periods of low ambient temperature may be helpful for stingless beekeeping.
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Dynamic foam films have been investigated using an improved experimental set-up with a CCD high-speed linescan camera in conjunction with the Scheludko micro-interferometric cell for studying the drainage and rupture of liquid foam films. The improved experimental set-up increased the sensibility of detection of the local thickness heterogeneities and domains during the film evolution. The evolution of the foam films up to the formation of black spots was recorded in the time intervals of 50ms. The wavelengths of the propagating surface waves and their frequencies were determined experimentally. The experimental results show that the current quasi-static hydrodynamic theory does not properly describe the wave dynamics with inter-domain channels. However, the thermodynamic condition for formation of black spots in the foam films was met by the experimental results. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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We investigated two of the most studied relationships in the macroecological research program (species richness vs. body size and abundance vs. body size) of a local chironomid assemblage from southeastern Brazil. Although numerous Studies have examined these relationships, few have investigated how they vary at different temporal scales. We used data from a forested stream to document and examine these patterns at monthly intervals. Both the species body size distribution and the abundance-body size relationship varied temporally. In some months the body size distribution was skewed to the right. whereas in others it approached normality. We Found both linear relationships (with different values of slopes). and a polygonal pattern in the abundance-body size relationship. This temporal variation was not related to environmental variables. Our results suggest that body size relationships are temporally instable properties of this chironomid assemblage. (C) 2007 Gesellschaft fur Okologie. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.