Models of Mortality - Analysing the Residuals

The area of mortality modelling has received significant attention over the last 20 years owing to the need to quantify and forecast improving mortality rates. This need is driven primarily by the concern of governments, professionals, insurance and actuarial professionals and individuals to be able to fund their old age. In particular, to quantify the costs of increasing longevity we need suitable model of mortality rates that capture the dynamics of the data and forecast them with sufficient accuracy to make them useful. In this paper we test several of those models by considering the fitting quality and in particular, testing the residuals of those models for normality properties. In a wide ranging study considering 30 countries we find that almost exclusively the residuals do not demonstrate normality. Further, in Hurst tests of the residuals we find evidence that structure remains that is not captured by the models.

Outperformance in exchange-traded fund pricing deviations: Generalized control of data snooping bias

An investigation into exchange-traded fund (ETF) outperforrnance during the period 2008-2012 is undertaken utilizing a data set of 288 U.S. traded securities. ETFs are tested for net asset value (NAV) premium, underlying index and market benchmark outperformance, with Sharpe, Treynor, and Sortino ratios employed as risk-adjusted performance measures. A key contribution is the application of an innovative generalized stepdown procedure in controlling for data snooping bias. We find that a large proportion of optimized replication and debt asset class ETFs display risk-adjusted premiums with energy and precious metals focused funds outperforming the S&P 500 market benchmark. 

The dynamics of murid gammaherpesvirus 4 within wild, sympatric populations of bank voles and wood mice

Murid gammaherpesvirus 4 (MuHV-4) is widely used as a small animal model for understanding gammaherpesvirus infections in man. However, there have been no epidemiological studies of the virus in wild populations of small mammals. As MuHV-4 both infects cells associated with the respiratory and immune systems and attempts to evade immune control via various molecular mechanisms, infection may reduce immunocompetence with potentially serious fitness consequences for individuals. Here we report a longitudinal study of antibody to MuHV-4 in a mixed assemblage of bank voles (Clethrionomys glareolus) and wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus) in the UK. The study was conducted between April 2001 and March 2004. Seroprevalence was higher in wood mice than bank voles, supporting earlier work that suggested wood mice were the major host even though the virus was originally isolated from a bank vole. Analyses of both the probability of having antibodies and the probability of initial seroconversion indicated no clear seasonal pattern or relationship with host density. Instead, infection risk was most closely associated with individual characteristics, with heavier males having the highest risk. This may reflect individual variation in susceptibility, potentially related to variability in the ability to mount an effective immune response.

Highly polymorphic microsatellite loci in the bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus)

We describe seven polymorphic, dinucleotide microsatellite loci isolated from bank voles (Clethrionomys glareolus, Rodentia: Muridae) collected from the Wirral Peninsula, United Kingdom. Microsatellites were isolated as part of a long-term study on the wider effects of host-pathogen interactions of an endemic viral disease. These microsatellites showed between five and 13 alleles per locus in these populations. Observed and expected heterozygosities varied between 0.275 to 0.777 and 0.487 to 0.794, respectively. These markers will allow us to investigate the structure of this bank vole population. © 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The International Regulatory Regime on Capital Flows

Capital controls and exchange restrictions are used to restrict international capital flows during economic crises. This paper looks at the legal implications of these restrictions and explores the current international regulatory framework applicable to international capital movements and current payments. It shows how international capital flows suffer from the lack of a comprehensive and coherent regulatory framework that would harmonize the patchwork of
multilateral, regional, and bilateral treaties that currently regulate this issue. These treaties include the Articles of Agreement of the International Monetary Fund (IMF Articles), the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), free-trade agreements, the European Union treaty, bilateral investment treaties, and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Code of Liberalization of Capital Movements (OECD Code of Capital Movement). Each
of these instruments regulate differently capital movements with little coordination with other areas of law. This situation sometimes leads to regulatory overlaps and conflict between different sources of law. Given the strong links between capital movements and trade in services, this paper pays particular attention to the rules of the GATS on capital flows and discusses the policy space available in the GATS for restricting capital flows in times of crisis.

Does Basel Compliance Matter for Bank Performance?

The global financial crisis underscored the importance of regulation and supervision to a well-functioning banking system that efficiently channels financial resources into investment. In this paper, we contribute to the ongoing policy debate by assessing whether compliance with international regulatory standards and protocols enhances bank operating efficiency. We focus specifically on the adoption of international capital standards and the Basel Core Principles for Effective Bank Supervision (BCP). The relationship between bank efficiency and regulatory compliance is investigated using the Simar and Wilson (2007. J. Econ. 136 (1), 31) double bootstrapping approach on an international sample of publicly listed banks. Our results indicate that overall BCP compliance, or indeed compliance with any of its individual chapters,has no association with bank efficiency.

The role of the seed bank in recovery of temperate heath and blanket bog following wildfires

Questions - Are the germinable seed banks of upland heath and blanket bog reduced following wildfires? Are some species at particular risk? Do the impacts of wildfires on seed banks differ between heathlands and blanket bog?

Location - Northern Ireland, United Kingdom.

Methods - Vegetation surveys and seed bank sampling were conducted in 2012 at burned and unburned areas within six upland sites where large wildfires had occurred during spring 2011. Differences in seedling abundance, species richness and Jaccard similarity indices between burned and unburned areas were compared using GLMMs. Differences in the community composition were examined using pRDA.

Results - In total, 24 of the 51 species in the vegetation were detected in the germinable seed bank. Species richness and the abundance of seedlings other than Calluna vulgaris were lower in areas where wildfires had occurred. Species composition of both germinable seed banks and vegetation differed between burned and unburned areas within sites; with negative associations between burned areas and some key indicator species including Drosera rotundifolia, Eriophorum vaginatum, Empetrum nigrum, Narthecium ossifragum and Trichophorum germanicum. We did not find any evidence of significant interactions between burning and habitat, suggesting that wildfires had similar impacts on each species regardless of the habitat in which they occurred.

Conclusions - This study differs from other UK studies in that it examines impacts of wildfires at sites that have not been previously intensively managed by burning. In particular, we highlight potential impacts on N. ossifragum and D. rotundifolia, which are key components of the upland flora and, to our knowledge, were not present in previous UK studies.

Definição de uma política de água sustentável em Portugal: proposta de modelo financeiro

O presente trabalho aborda de que forma a Análise Económica pode contribuir para a definição de uma Política Pública da Água sustentável para Portugal. Analisam-se, inicialmente, as particularidades do recurso e o seu enquadramento legislativo, institucional, bem como as respectivas implicações no processo de gestão da água. Esta análise conduz à definição daquilo a que se chamará ―Novo Modelo de Gestão da Água‖. Tendo por enquadramento a Directiva-Quadro da Água (DQA) — Directiva 2000/60/CE de 23 de Outubro de 2000, publicada no Jornal Oficial das Comunidades Europeias, em 22 de Dezembro do mesmo ano — é ilustrada a aplicação dos conceitos e a abordagem desenvolvida na definição de uma estratégia política de actuação para Portugal, de modo a assegurar o seu cumprimento de forma eficaz, eficiente e sustentável. São discutidos os aspectos económicos e a justificação teórica para a intervenção nos mercados, nomeadamente através do desenvolvimento de sistemas de tarifas. As formas de financiamento do sector, à luz do princípio da recuperação de custos, são analisados propondo-se a chamada visão dos 4T. Dado o contexto de análise do sector da água, enquanto política pública, são referenciados os vários de tipos de regulação e as várias reformas propostas pelos principais investigadores e organizações internacionais. Neste contexto de análise é abordada a governação (governance) e os seus atributos. São enunciados os principais entraves a uma governação eficiente. As várias formas de participação do capital privado, bem como a descrição de algumas das suas potencialidades são postas em evidência. A partir de um modelo analítico procede-se ao estudo dos efeitos do uso de vários instrumentos económicos, nomeadamente a nível do bem-estar. Analisa-se o modelo institucional português, nas suas vertentes, legislativa e institucional. O estado dos recursos hídricos e dos serviços de água em Portugal é avaliado a partir de dados oficiais. Com base na identificação das restrições do actual modelo institucional, é proposto um novo modelo que responda de forma flexível e atempada às solicitações postas pela Directiva. Propõe se a criação de uma instituição financeira — o ―Banco da Água‖ — que, em condições de mercado, possa financiar os investimentos estruturais necessários à melhoria da qualidade dos recursos hídricos, bem como dos serviços associados à água. Pretende demonstrar-se que, face às restrições orçamentais, à esperada conclusão do Quadro de Referência Estratégico Nacional (QREN) e às limitações dos chamados project finance esta solução será necessária para o sucesso da Política Pública da Água. A criação de condições para um maior papel da iniciativa privada, uma legislação protectora do consumidor, a aplicação de instrumentos de política da água — nomeadamente sistemas de tarifas e a criação de um Fundo de Equilíbrio Tarifário —, e o uso da metodologia Oikomatrix, nas políticas sectoriais, são outras das sugestões que completam as propostas avançadas tendentes a que o Sector da Água mimize algumas das ineficiências detectadas e almeje à desejável sustentabilidade.

Exploring Consumer Opportunism Conundrum in the Insurance Industry: The Role of Marketing

Drawing from the extant literature, this paper explores the prevalent consumer opportunism in the insurance transactions, its links to consumers’ perception, and the relevance of marketing strategies in curbing the menace. It shows that insurance opportunism could be perpetrated by any party in the insurance transaction system and at any stage of the process involved. Among factors identified as prompting this conundrum are economic motive, resentment towards the insurance companies, laxity in the application processing/asymmetric information, and insiders’ collaborations. Nonetheless, the paper suggests that strong commitment of insurance marketers to creating and delivering value to the customers more robustly through a proactive and all-embracing implementation of marketing strategies vis-àvis relationship marketing could significantly enhance consumers’ positive perception of insurance business and consequently result in a healthier insurance industry.