942 resultados para Auto-Regressive and Moving-Average Model with exogenous inputs
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A search for the direct production of charginos and neutralinos in final states with three leptons and missing transverse momentum is presented. The analysis is based on 20.3 fb−1 of √s = 8TeV proton-proton collision data delivered by the Large Hadron Collider and recorded with the ATLAS detector. Observations are consistent with the Standard Model expectations and limits are set in R-parity-conserving phenomenological Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Models and in simplified supersymmetric models, significantly extending previous results. For simplified supersymmetric models of direct chargino (˜χ±1 ) and next-to-lightest neutralino (˜χ02) production with decays to lightest neutralino(˜χ01) via either all three generations of sleptons, staus only, gauge bosons, or Higgs bosons, ˜χ±1 and ˜χ02 masses are excluded up to 700GeV, 380GeV, 345GeV, or 148GeV respectively, for a massless ˜χ01.
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Treatment allocation by epidermal growth factor receptor mutation status is a new standard in patients with metastatic nonesmall-cell lung cancer. Yet, relatively few modern chemotherapy trials were conducted in patients characterized by epidermal growth factor receptor wild type. We describe the results of a multicenter phase II trial, testing in parallel 2 novel combination therapies, predefined molecular markers, and tumor rebiopsy at progression. Objective: The goal was to demonstrate that tailored therapy, according to tumor histology and epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutation status, and the introduction of novel drug combinations in the treatment of advanced nonesmall-cell lung cancer are promising for further investigation. Methods: We conducted a multicenter phase II trial with mandatory EGFR testing and 2 strata. Patients with EGFR wild type received 4 cycles of bevacizumab, pemetrexed, and cisplatin, followed by maintenance with bevacizumab and pemetrexed until progression. Patients with EGFR mutations received bevacizumab and erlotinib until progression. Patients had computed tomography scans every 6 weeks and repeat biopsy at progression. The primary end point was progression-free survival (PFS) ≥ 35% at 6 months in stratum EGFR wild type; 77 patients were required to reach a power of 90% with an alpha of 5%. Secondary end points were median PFS, overall survival, best overall response rate (ORR), and tolerability. Further biomarkers and biopsy at progression were also evaluated. Results: A total of 77 evaluable patients with EGFR wild type received an average of 9 cycles (range, 1-25). PFS at 6 months was 45.5%, median PFS was 6.9 months, overall survival was 12.1 months, and ORR was 62%. Kirsten rat sarcoma oncogene mutations and circulating vascular endothelial growth factor negatively correlated with survival, but thymidylate synthase expression did not. A total of 20 patients with EGFR mutations received an average of 16.
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AIM To identify novel variants associated with anthracycline-induced cardiotoxicity and to assess these in a genotype-guided risk prediction model. PATIENTS & METHODS Two cohorts treated for childhood cancer (n = 344 and 218, respectively) were genotyped for 4578 SNPs in drug ADME and toxicity genes. RESULTS Significant associations were identified in SLC22A17 (rs4982753; p = 0.0078) and SLC22A7 (rs4149178; p = 0.0034), with replication in the second cohort (p = 0.0071 and 0.047, respectively). Additional evidence was found for SULT2B1 and several genes related to oxidative stress. Adding the SLC22 variants to the prediction model improved its discriminative ability (AUC 0.78 vs 0.75 [p = 0.029]). CONCLUSION Two novel variants in SLC22A17 and SLC22A7 were significantly associated with anthracycline-induced cardiotoxicity and improved a genotype-guided risk prediction model, which could improve patient risk stratification.
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BACKGROUND The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of linear measurements on three imaging modalities: lateral cephalograms from a cephalometric machine with a 3 m source-to-mid-sagittal-plane distance (SMD), from a machine with 1.5 m SMD and 3D models from cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) data. METHODS Twenty-one dry human skulls were used. Lateral cephalograms were taken, using two cephalometric devices: one with a 3 m SMD and one with a 1.5 m SMD. CBCT scans were taken by 3D Accuitomo® 170, and 3D surface models were created in Maxilim® software. Thirteen linear measurements were completed twice by two observers with a 4 week interval. Direct physical measurements by a digital calliper were defined as the gold standard. Statistical analysis was performed. RESULTS Nasion-Point A was significantly different from the gold standard in all methods. More statistically significant differences were found on the measurements of the 3 m SMD cephalograms in comparison to the other methods. Intra- and inter-observer agreement based on 3D measurements was slightly better than others. LIMITATIONS Dry human skulls without soft tissues were used. Therefore, the results have to be interpreted with caution, as they do not fully represent clinical conditions. CONCLUSIONS 3D measurements resulted in a better observer agreement. The accuracy of the measurements based on CBCT and 1.5 m SMD cephalogram was better than a 3 m SMD cephalogram. These findings demonstrated the linear measurements accuracy and reliability of 3D measurements based on CBCT data when compared to 2D techniques. Future studies should focus on the implementation of 3D cephalometry in clinical practice.
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Ninety-one Swiss veal farms producing under a label with improved welfare standards were visited between August and December 2014 to investigate risk factors related to antimicrobial drug use and mortality. All herds consisted of own and purchased calves, with a median of 77.4% of purchased calves. The calves' mean age was 29±15days at purchasing and the fattening period lasted at average 120±28 days. The mean carcass weight was 125±12kg. A mean of 58±33 calves were fattened per farm and year, and purchased calves were bought from a mean of 20±17 farms of origin. Antimicrobial drug treatment incidence was calculated with the defined daily dose methodology. The mean treatment incidence (TIADD) was 21±15 daily doses per calf and year. The mean mortality risk was 4.1%, calves died at a mean age of 94±50 days, and the main causes of death were bovine respiratory disease (BRD, 50%) and gastro-intestinal disease (33%). Two multivariable models were constructed, for antimicrobial drug treatment incidence (53 farms) and mortality (91 farms). No quarantine, shared air space for several groups of calves, and no clinical examination upon arrival at the farm were associated with increased antimicrobial treatment incidence. Maximum group size and weight differences >100kg within a group were associated with increased mortality risk, while vaccination and beef breed were associated with decreased mortality risk. The majority of antimicrobial treatments (84.6%) were given as group treatments with oral powder fed through an automatic milk feeding system. Combination products containing chlortetracycline with tylosin and sulfadimidine or with spiramycin were used for 54.9%, and amoxicillin for 43.7% of the oral group treatments. The main indication for individual treatment was BRD (73%). The mean age at the time of treatment was 51 days, corresponding to an estimated weight of 80-100kg. Individual treatments were mainly applied through injections (88.5%), and included administration of fluoroquinolones in 38.3%, penicillines (amoxicillin or benzylpenicillin) in 25.6%, macrolides in 13.1%, tetracyclines in 12.0%, 3th and 4th generation cephalosporines in 4.7%, and florfenicol in 3.9% of the cases. The present study allowed for identifying risk factors for increased antimicrobial drug treatment and mortality. This is an important basis for future studies aiming at reducing treatment incidence and mortality in veal farms. Our results indicate that improvement is needed in the selection of drugs for the treatment of veal calves according to the principles of prudent use of antibiotics.
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We propose a way to incorporate NTBs for the four workhorse models of the modern trade literature in computable general equilibrium models (CGEs). CGE models feature intermediate linkages and thus allow us to study global value chains (GVCs). We show that the Ethier-Krugman monopolistic competition model, the Melitz firm heterogeneity model and the Eaton and Kortum model can be defined as an Armington model with generalized marginal costs, generalized trade costs and a demand externality. As already known in the literature in both the Ethier-Krugman model and the Melitz model generalized marginal costs are a function of the amount of factor input bundles. In the Melitz model generalized marginal costs are also a function of the price of the factor input bundles. Lower factor prices raise the number of firms that can enter the market profitably (extensive margin), reducing generalized marginal costs of a representative firm. For the same reason the Melitz model features a demand externality: in a larger market more firms can enter. We implement the different models in a CGE setting with multiple sectors, intermediate linkages, non-homothetic preferences and detailed data on trade costs. We find the largest welfare effects from trade cost reductions in the Melitz model. We also employ the Melitz model to mimic changes in Non tariff Barriers (NTBs) with a fixed cost-character by analysing the effect of changes in fixed trade costs. While we work here with a model calibrated to the GTAP database, the methods developed can also be applied to CGE models based on the WIOD database.
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We develop a portfolio balance model with real capital accumulation. The introduction of real capital as an asset as well as a good produced and demanded by firms enriches extant portfolio balance models of exchange rate determination. We show that expansionary monetary policy causes exchange rate overshooting, not once, but twice; the secondary repercussion comes through the reaction of firms to changed asset prices and the firms' decisions to invest in real capital. The model sheds further light on the volatility of real and nominal exchange rates, and it suggests that changes in corporate sector profitability may affect exchange rates through portfolio diversification in corporate securities.
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We develop coincident and leading employment indexes for the Connecticut economy. Four employment-related variables enter the coincident index while five employment-related variables enter the leading index. The peaks and troughs in the leading index lead the peaks and troughs in the coincident index by an average of 3 and 9 months. Finally, we use the leading index in vector-autoregressive (VAR) and Bayesian vector-autoregressive (BVAR) models to forecast the coincident index, nonfarm employment, and the unemployment rate.
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The disparate burden of breast cancer-related morbidity and mortality experienced by African American women compared with women of other races is a topic of intense debate in the medical and public health arenas. The anomaly is consistently attributed to the fact that at diagnosis, a large proportion of African American women have advanced-stage disease. Extensive research has documented the impacts of cultural factors and of socioeconomic factors in shaping African American women's breast-health practices; however, there is another factor of a more subtle influence that might have some role in establishing these women's vulnerability to this disease: the lack of or perceived lack of partner support. Themes expressed in the research literature reflect that many African American breast cancer patients and survivors consider their male partners as being apathetic and nonsupportive. ^ The purpose of this study was to learn how African American couples' ethnographic paradigms and cultural explanatory model of breast cancer frame the male partners' responses to the women's diagnosis and to assess his ability to cope and willingness to adapt to the subsequent challenges. The goal of the study was to determine whether these men's coping and adaptation skills positively or negatively affect the women's self-care attitudes and behaviors. ^ This study involved 4 African American couples in which the woman was a breast cancer survivor. Participants were recruited through a community-based cancer support group and a church-based cancer support group. Recruitment sessions were held at regular meetings of these organizations. Accrual took 2 months. In separate sessions, each male partner and each survivor completed a demographic survey and a questionnaire and were interviewed. Additionally, the couples were asked to participate in a communications activity (Adinkra). This activity was not done to fulfill any part of the study purpose and was not included in the data analysis; rather, it was done to assess its potential use as an intervention to promote dialogue between African American partners about the experience of breast cancer. ^ The questionnaire was analyzed on the basis of a coding schema and the interview responses were analyzed on the principles of hermeneutic phenomenology. In both cases, the instruments were used to determine whether the partner's coping skills reflected a compassionate attitude (positive response) versus an apathetic attitude (negative response) and whether his adaptation skills reflected supportive behaviors (the positive response) versus nonsupportive behaviors (the negative response). Overall, the women's responses showed that they perceived of their partners as being compassionate, yet nonsupportive, and the partner's perceived of themselves likewise. Only half of the women said that their partners' coping and adaptation abilities enabled them to relinquish traditional concepts of control and focus on their own well-being. ^ The themes that emerged indicate that African American men's attitudes and behaviors regarding his female partner's diagnosis of breast cancer and his ability to cope and willingness to adapt are influenced by their ritualistic mantras, folk beliefs, religious teachings/spiritual values, existential ideologies, socioeconomic status, and environmental factors and by their established perceptions of what causes breast cancer, what the treatments and outcomes are, and how the disease affects the entire family, particularly him. These findings imply that a culturally specific intervention might be useful in educating African American men about breast cancer and their roles in supporting their female partners, physically and psychologically, during diagnosis, treatment, and recovery. ^
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"Slow Learners" is a term used to describe children with an IQ range of 70-89 on a standardized individual intelligence test (i.e. with a standard deviation of either 15 or 16). They have above retarded, but below average intelligence and potential to learn. If the factors associated with the etiology of slow learning in children can be identified, it may be possible to hypothesize causal relationships which can be tested by intervention studies specifically designed to prevent slow learning. If effective, these may ultimately reduce the incidence of school dropouts and their cost to society. To date, there is little information about variables which may be etiologically significant. In an attempt to identify such etiologic factors this study examines the sociodemographic characteristics, prenatal history (hypertension, smoking, infections, medication, vaginal bleeding, etc.), natal history (length of delivery, Apgar score, birth trauma, resuscitation, etc.), neonatal history (infections, seizures, head trauma, etc.), developmental history (health problems, developmental milestones and growth during infancy and early childhood), and family history (educational level of the parents, occupation, history of similar condition in the family, etc.) of a series of children defined as slow learners. The study is limited to children from middle to high socioeconomic families in order to exclude the possible confounding variable of low socioeconomic status, and because a descriptive study of this group has not been previously reported. ^
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This paper defines and compares several models for describing excess influenza pneumonia mortality in Houston. First, the methodology used by the Center for Disease Control is examined and several variations of this methodology are studied. All of the models examined emphasize the difficulty of omitting epidemic weeks.^ In an attempt to find a better method of describing expected and epidemic mortality, time series methods are examined. Grouping in four-week periods, truncating the data series to adjust epidemic periods, and seasonally-adjusting the series y(,t), by:^ (DIAGRAM, TABLE OR GRAPHIC OMITTED...PLEASE SEE DAI)^ is the best method examined. This new series w(,t) is stationary and a moving average model MA(1) gives a good fit for forecasting influenza and pneumonia mortality in Houston.^ Influenza morbidity, other causes of death, sex, race, age, climate variables, environmental factors, and school absenteeism are all examined in terms of their relationship to influenza and pneumonia mortality. Both influenza morbidity and ischemic heart disease mortality show a very high relationship that remains when seasonal trends are removed from the data. However, when jointly modeling the three series it is obvious that the simple time series MA(1) model of truncated, seasonally-adjusted four-week data gives a better forecast.^
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This study proposed a novel statistical method that modeled the multiple outcomes and missing data process jointly using item response theory. This method follows the "intent-to-treat" principle in clinical trials and accounts for the correlation between outcomes and missing data process. This method may provide a good solution to chronic mental disorder study. ^ The simulation study demonstrated that if the true model is the proposed model with moderate or strong correlation, ignoring the within correlation may lead to overestimate of the treatment effect and result in more type I error than specified level. Even if the within correlation is small, the performance of proposed model is as good as naïve response model. Thus, the proposed model is robust for different correlation settings if the data is generated by the proposed model.^
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Background. Kidney disease is a growing public health phenomenon in the U.S. and in the world. Downstream interventions, dialysis and renal transplants covered by Medicare's renal disease entitlement policy in those who are 65 years and over have been expensive treatments that have been not foolproof. The shortage of kidney donors in the U.S. has grown in the last two decades. Therefore study of upstream events in kidney disease development and progression is justified to prevent the rising prevalence of kidney disease. Previous studies have documented the biological route by which obesity can progress and accelerate kidney disease, but health services literature on quantifying the effects of overweight and obesity on economic outcomes in the context of renal disease were lacking. Objectives . The specific aims of this study were (1) to determine the likelihood of overweight and obesity in renal disease and in three specific adult renal disease sub-populations, hypertensive, diabetic and both hypertensive and diabetic (2) to determine the incremental health service use and spending in overweight and obese renal disease populations and (3) to determine who financed the cost of healthcare for renal disease in overweight and obese adult populations less than 65 years of age. Methods. This study was a retrospective cross-sectional study of renal disease cases pooled for years 2002 to 2009 from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. The likelihood of overweight and obesity was estimated using chi-square test. Negative binomial regression and generalized gamma model with log link were used to estimate healthcare utilization and healthcare expenditures for six health event categories. Payments by self/family, public and private insurance were described for overweight and obese kidney disease sub-populations. Results. The likelihood of overweight and obesity was 0.29 and 0.46 among renal disease and obesity was common in hypertensive and diabetic renal disease population. Among obese renal disease population, negative binomial regression estimates of healthcare utilization per person per year as compared to normal weight renal disease persons were significant for office-based provider visits and agency home health visits respectively (p=0.001; p=0.005). Among overweight kidney disease population health service use was significant for inpatient hospital discharges (p=0.027). Over years 2002 to 2009, overweight and obese renal disease sub-populations had 53% and 63% higher inpatient facility and doctor expenditures as compared to normal weight renal disease population and these result were statistically significant (p=0.007; p=0.026). Overweigh renal disease population had significant total expenses per person per year for office-based and outpatient associated care. Overweight and obese renal disease persons paid less from out-of-pocket overall compared to normal weight renal disease population. Medicare and Medicaid had the highest mean annual payments for obese renal disease persons, while mean annual payments per year were highest for private insurance among normal weight renal disease population. Conclusion. Overweight and obesity were common in those with acute and chronic kidney disease and resulted in higher healthcare spending and increased utilization of office-based providers, hospital inpatient department and agency home healthcare. Healthcare for overweight and obese renal disease persons younger than 65 years of age was financed more by private and public insurance and less by out of pocket payments. With the increasing epidemic of obesity in the U.S. and the aging of the baby boomer population, the findings of the present study have implications for public health and for greater dissemination of healthcare resources to prevent, manage and delay the onset of overweight and obesity that can progress and accelerate the course of the kidney disease.^
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The current study is a secondary data analysis of a prospective cohort study that examined demographic and psychosocial variables and their associations with physical activity levels in Mexican-American adolescents in Houston, Texas. Body image, subjective social status, and anxiety were the main variables of interest. The sample included 952 unrelated Mexican-American adolescents in Houston, Texas. The majority (84.2%) of the study population did not meet physical activity standards prescribed by the CDC.^ In a multivariate model controlling for age, socioeconomic status, gender, general body image, preferred body image, subjective social status, and anxiety, gender and subjective social status were found to be the strongest determinants of physical activity levels. Males and those with a high subjective social status were more likely to participate in physical activity than those with low subjective status. Lower levels of anxiety and a more positive body image were also found to be associated with higher levels of physical activity. In multivariate analyses gender and subjective social status showed the strongest associations with physical activity.^
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The central paradigm linking disadvantaged social status and mental health has been the social stress model (Horwitz, 1999), the assumption being that individuals residing in lower social status groups are subjected to greater levels of stress not experienced by individuals from higher status groups. A further assumption is that such individuals have fewer resources to cope with stress, in turn leading to higher levels of psychological disorder, including depression (Pearlin, 1989). Despite these key assumptions, there is a dearth of literature comparing the social patterning of stress exposure (Hatch & Dohrenwend, 2007; Meyer, Schwartz, & Frost, 2008; Kessler, Mickelson, & Williams, 1999; Turner & Avison, 2003; Turner & Lloyd, 1999; Turner, Wheaton, & Lloyd, 1995), and the distribution and contribution of protective factors, posited to play a role in the low rates of depression found among African- and Latino-Americans (Alegria et al., 2007; Breslau, Aguilar-Gaxiola, Kendler, Su, Williams, & Kessler, 2006; Breslau, Borges, Hagar, Tancredi, Gilman, 2009; Gavin, Walton, Chae, Alegria, Jackson, & Takeuchi, 2010; Williams, & Neighbors, 2006). Thus, this study sought to describe both the distribution and contribution of risk and protective factors in relation to depression among a sample of African-, European-, and Latina-American mothers of adolescents, including testing a hypothesized mechanism through which social support, an important protective factor specific to women and depression, operates. ^ Despite the finding that the levels of depression were not statistically different across all three groups of women, surprising results were found in describing the distribution of both risk and protective factors, in that results reported among all women who were mothers when analyzed masked differences within each ethnic group when SES was assessed, a point made explicit by Williams (2002) regarding racial and ethnic variations in women's health. In the final analysis, while perceived social support was found to partially mediate the effect of social isolation on depression, among African-Americans, the direct effect of social isolation and depression was lower among this group of women, as was the indirect effect of social isolation and perceived social support when compared to European- and Latina-American mothers. Or, put differently, higher levels of social isolation were not found to be as associated with more depression or lower social support among African-American mothers when compared to their European- and Latina-American counterparts. ^ Women in American society occupy a number of roles, i.e., that of being female, married or single, mother, homemaker or employee. In addition, to these roles, ethnicity and SES also come into play, such that the intersection of all these roles and the social contexts that they occupy are equally important and must be taken into consideration when making predictions drawn from the social stress model. Based on these findings, it appears that the assumptions of the social stress model need to be revisited to include the variety of roles that intersect among individuals from differing social groups. More specifically, among women who are mothers and occupy a myriad of other roles, i.e., that of being female, married or single, African- or Latina-American, mother, homemaker or employee, the intersection of all the roles and the social contexts that women occupy are equally important and must be taken into consideration when looking at both the types and distribution of stressors across women. Predictions based on simple, mutually exclusive categories of social groups may lead to erroneous assumptions and misleading results.^