Optimizing simulation model on forest policy.

XVIII IUFRO World Congress, Ljubljana 1986.

Forest sector simulation models as methodological tools in forest policy analysis.

XVIII IUFRO World Congress, Ljubljana 1986.

The Tourism-Development Nexus in Namibia : A Study on National Tourism Policy and Local Tourism Enterprises' Policy Knowledge

The tourism development nexus in southern Africa involves highly topical issues related to tourism planning, power relations, community participation, and natural resources. Namibia offers a particularly interesting context for the study of these issues due to its colonial legacy, vast tourism potential, recently adopted tourism policy and community-based approaches to tourism and natural resource management. This study is an interdisciplinary endeavour to analyse the role of tourism in Namibia s post-apartheid transformation process by focusing on Namibian tourism policy and local tourism enterprises' policy knowledge. Major attention is paid to how the tourism policy's national development objectives are understood and conceptualised by the representatives of different tourism enterprises and the ways in which they relate to the practical needs of the enterprises. Through such local policy knowledge the study explores various opportunities, challenges and constraints related to the promotion of tourism as a development strategy. The study utilises a political economy approach to tourism and development through three current and interrelated discourses which are relevant in the Namibian context. These are tourism, power and inequality, tourism and sustainable development, and tourism and poverty reduction. The qualitative research material was gathered in Namibia in 2006-2007 and 2008. This material consists of 34 semi-structured interviews in 16 tourism enterprises, including private trophy hunting farms and private lodges, small tour operators and community-based tourism enterprises. In addition, the research material consists of observations in the enterprises, and 37 informal and 23 expert interviews. The findings indicate that in the light of local tourism enterprises the tourism policy objectives appear more complex and ambiguous. Furthermore, they involve multiple meanings and interpretations which reflect the socio-economic stratification of the informants and Namibian society, together with the professional stratification of the tourism enterprises and restrictions on the capacity of tourism to address the development objectives. In the light of such findings it is obvious that aspects of power and inequality affect the tourism development nexus in Namibia. The study concludes that, as in the case of other southern African countries, in order to promote sustainable development and reduce poverty, Namibia should not only target tourism growth but pay attention to who benefits from that growth and how. From a political economy point of view, it is important that prevailing structural challenges are addressed equally in the planning of tourism, development and natural resource management. Such approach would help the Namibian majority to enjoy the benefits of increasing tourism in the country.

Energy efficiency in India: Assessing the policy regimes and their impacts

In the recent years. India has emerged as one of the fast growing economies of the world necessitating equally rapid increase in modern energy consumption. With an imminent global climate change threat, India will have difficulties in continuing with this rising energy use levels towards achieving high economic growth. It will have to follow an energy-efficient pathway in attaining this goal. In this context, an attempt is made to present India's achievements on the energy efficiency front by tracing the evolution of policies and their impacts. The results indicate that India has made substantial progress in improving energy efficiency which is evident from the reductions achieved in energy intensities of GDP to the tune of 88% during 1980-2007. Similar reductions have been observed both with respect to overall Indian economy and the major sectors of the economy. In terms of energy intensity of GDP, India occupies a relatively high position of nine among the top 30 energy consuming countries of the world. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Monetary policy rules and estimated reaction functions for the European Central Bank

This thesis studies the interest-rate policy of the ECB by estimating monetary policy rules using real-time data and central bank forecasts. The aim of the estimations is to try to characterize a decade of common monetary policy and to look at how different models perform at this task.The estimated rules include: contemporary Taylor rules, forward-looking Taylor rules, nonlinearrules and forecast-based rules. The nonlinear models allow for the possibility of zone-like preferences and an asymmetric response to key variables. The models therefore encompass the most popular sub-group of simple models used for policy analysis as well as the more unusual non-linear approach. In addition to the empirical work, this thesis also contains a more general discussion of monetary policy rules mostly from a New Keynesian perspective. This discussion includes an overview of some notable related studies, optimal policy, policy gradualism and several other related subjects. The regression estimations are performed with either least squares or the generalized method of moments depending on the requirements of the estimations. The estimations use data from both the Euro Area Real-Time Database and the central bank forecasts published in ECB Monthly Bulletins. These data sources represent some of the best data that is available for this kind of analysis. The main results of this thesis are that forward-looking behavior appears highly prevalent, but that standard forward-looking Taylor rules offer only ambivalent results with regard to inflation. Nonlinear models are shown to work, but on the other hand do not have a strong rationale over a simpler linear formulation. However, the forecasts appear to be highly useful in characterizing policy and may offer the most accurate depiction of a predominantly forward-looking central bank. In particular the inflation response appears much stronger while the output response becomes highly forward-looking as well.

'South-South' Remittance - Poverty reduction nexus. The Case of 'Hadiya' immigrants in South Africa, as Agents of 'Constituence development' in Ethiopia, and the policy implications of their 'remittance instrument'

This thesis explores the link between South-South remittance and development. It attempts to establish improved understanding about the role of immigrants as agents of constituency growth and development. By doing so, it illuminates the dark corners of the policy implications that the unconventional development agency of immigrants might have for countries in the Organization ft Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The thesis problematises the existence of state-centric international cooperation as providing the recipe for failed Aid in the face of global poverty menace. In the last half a century, the relative shi' of focus to non-state actors brought about the proliferation of NGOs. That, intrun, helped improve international access to crisis situations; however, their long-term remedial impacts on poverty and development have been contested. Major misgivings for non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are, on one hand, low level goal-bound expenditures and lack of independence from influence of the state, on the other. Therefore, the thesis enterprises to empirically verify its fundamental question whether remitting immigrants constitute an alternative development agency to the traditional players: the State and NGOs. Its main arguments are: due to state's failures in bringing sustainable development in many countries of the South, the future of poverty reduction and development also rests in immigrants' remittances. Nonetheless, in the last decade, remittance security-nexus dominated its discourse. Because of that remittance was viewed as something requiring global regime and restrictions. These temptations to tightly regulate remittance flows carry the danger of overlooking its trans-boundary nature and its strong link with livelihood of the poor. Therefore, to avoid unintended consequences of interventions, there need to be clear policy that bases itself on a discursive knowledge on the issues of North-South and South-South remittances The study involved both literature based and empirical research. It employed Discourse Analysis (C as main method for the former and snow-balling as its approach for the latter. For the first part the thesis constructed three conceptual models, these are: metrological model, police model and ecological model on remittance development-nexus. Through this modeling, the thesis achieved better deconstruction on the concepts remittance, immigrants and development agency. The protagonists of each model, the values and interests they represent, and their main arguments along various lines of dichotomies have been discussed. For instance, the main treats of meteorological model include: it sees remittance as transitional economic variable which require constant speculations and global management; it acts as meteorological station for following up or predicting the level, direction, flow and movement of global remittance. It focuses on official lines and considers the state as legitimate recipient of advic and positive consequence of remittance. On the other hand, police model views remittance as beir at best, development neutral or as an illicit activity requiring global regulations and tight control. Both immigrants and remittance viewed as subversive to establishments. It gives primacy to state stable agent of development and a partner for international cooperation. The anti-thesis to the police model is supplied by ecological model, which this thesis is a part. Ecological model on remittance and immigrants argues that, tight global regulations alone cannot be a panacea for possible abuse of informal remittance system. Ecological model, not only links remittance to poverty reduction, the main trust of development, but also considers the development agency of immigrants as critical factor for 21st century north-south development intervention. It sees immigrants as development conscious and their remittance instrument as most stable flow of finance to the developing countries. Besides, it sees remittance as effective poverty solutions than Foreign Direct Investment and international AID. This thesis focuses on the significance of South-South remittance and investigates the South Africa - Ethiopia remittance corridor, as case study; and empirically verifies the role of Ethiopian (Kembata and Hadiya) immigrants in South Africa as agents of local development back home. The study involved techniques of interview, group discussions, observations and investigative study. It also looked into the determinants of their migration to South Africa, and their remittance to Ethiopia. The theoretical models in the first part of the thesis have been operationalised throughout the empirical part to verify if the Kembata and Hadiya immigrants played the crucial role in their household poverty and local development in comparison with the Ethiopian state and the NGOs involved in the system. As evidenced by the research the thesis has made three distinct contributions to the discourse of remittance development-nexus. Fist, it systematized the debate about linkages between remittance, immigrants, development agency and policy of international cooperation by creating three conceptual models (school of thoughts); second, it singled out remitting immigrants as new agents of development in the South; third, it deconstructed concept of remittance and established South¬South remittance as additional sphere of academic investigation. In addition to the above contributions, the thesis finds that Kembata and Hadiya immigrants have engaged in various developmental activities in their locality than usually anticipated. Hence, it concludes that Ethiopian immigrants constitute an alternative development agency to the state and other non-state actors in their country, and the lesson can be applied to poverty reduction strategies in most developing countries.

An efficient web cache replacement policy

Several replacement policies for web caches have been proposed and studied extensively in the literature. Different replacement policies perform better in terms of (i) the number of objects found in the cache (cache hit), (ii) the network traffic avoided by fetching the referenced object from the cache, or (iii) the savings in response time. In this paper, we propose a simple and efficient replacement policy (hereafter known as SE) which improves all three performance measures. Trace-driven simulations were done to evaluate the performance of SE. We compare SE with two widely used and efficient replacement policies, namely Least Recently Used (LRU) and Least Unified Value (LUV) algorithms. Our results show that SE performs at least as well as, if not better than, both these replacement policies. Unlike various other replacement policies proposed in literature, our SE policy does not require parameter tuning or a-priori trace analysis and has an efficient and simple implementation that can be incorporated in any existing proxy server or web server with ease.

Optimal maintenance policy of a machine subject to failure

Optimal maintenance policies for a machine with degradation in performance with age and subject to failure are derived using optimal control theory. The optimal policies are shown to be, normally, of bang-coast nature, except in the case when probability of machine failure is a function of maintenance. It is also shown, in the deterministic case that a higher depreciation rate tends to reverse this policy to coast-bang. When the probability of failure is a function of maintenance, considerable computational effort is needed to obtain an optimal policy and the resulting policy is not easily implementable. For this case also, an optimal policy in the class of bang-coast policies is derived, using a semi-Markov decision model. A simple procedure for modifying the probability of machine failure with maintenance is employed. The results obtained extend and unify the recent results for this problem along both theoretical and practical lines. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the results obtained.

Adaptive power optimization of on-chip SNUCA cache on tiled chip multicore architecture using remap policy

Advances in technology have increased the number of cores and size of caches present on chip multicore platforms(CMPs). As a result, leakage power consumption of on-chip caches has already become a major power consuming component of the memory subsystem. We propose to reduce leakage power consumption in static nonuniform cache architecture(SNUCA) on a tiled CMP by dynamically varying the number of cache slices used and switching off unused cache slices. A cache slice in a tile includes all cache banks present in that tile. Switched-off cache slices are remapped considering the communication costs to reduce cache usage with minimal impact on execution time. This saves leakage power consumption in switched-off L2 cache slices. On an average, there map policy achieves 41% and 49% higher EDP savings compared to static and dynamic NUCA (DNUCA) cache policies on a scalable tiled CMP, respectively.

Loss ratio of the EDF scheduling policy with early discarding technique

This paper considers a firm real-time M/M/1 system, where jobs have stochastic deadlines till the end of service. A method for approximately specifying the loss ratio of the earliest-deadline-first scheduling policy along with exit control through the early discarding technique is presented. This approximation uses the arrival rate and the mean relative deadline, normalized with respect to the mean service time, for exponential and uniform distributions of relative deadlines. Simulations show that the maximum approximation error is less than 4% and 2% for the two distributions, respectively, for a wide range of arrival rates and mean relative deadlines. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of an queue operated under the FCFS policy with exact admission control

In this article, we present an exact theoretical analysis of an system, with arbitrary distribution of relative deadline for the end of service, operated under the first come first served scheduling policy with exact admission control. We provide an explicit solution to the functional equation that must be satisfied by the workload distribution, when the system reaches steady state. We use this solution to derive explicit expressions for the loss ratio and the sojourn time distribution. Finally, we compare this loss ratio with that of a similar system operating without admission control, in the cases of some common distributions of the relative deadline.

SEP-Optimal Transmit Power Policy for Peak Power and Interference Outage Probability Constrained Underlay Cognitive Radios

In underlay cognitive radio (CR), a secondary user (SU) can transmit concurrently with a primary user (PU) provided that it does not cause excessive interference at the primary receiver (PRx). The interference constraint fundamentally changes how the SU transmits, and makes link adaptation in underlay CR systems different from that in conventional wireless systems. In this paper, we develop a novel, symbol error probability (SEP)-optimal transmit power adaptation policy for an underlay CR system that is subject to two practically motivated constraints, namely, a peak transmit power constraint and an interference outage probability constraint. For the optimal policy, we derive its SEP and a tight upper bound for MPSK and MQAM constellations when the links from the secondary transmitter (STx) to its receiver and to the PRx follow the versatile Nakagami-m fading model. We also characterize the impact of imperfectly estimating the STx-PRx link on the SEP and the interference. Extensive simulation results are presented to validate the analysis and evaluate the impact of the constraints, fading parameters, and imperfect estimates.