Medication incidents in primary care medicine: protocol of a study by the Swiss Federal Sentinel Reporting System.

BACKGROUND/RATIONALE: Patient safety is a major concern in healthcare systems worldwide. Although most safety research has been conducted in the inpatient setting, evidence indicates that medical errors and adverse events are a threat to patients in the primary care setting as well. Since information about the frequency and outcomes of safety incidents in primary care is required, the goals of this study are to describe the type, frequency, seasonal and regional distribution of medication incidents in primary care in Switzerland and to elucidate possible risk factors for medication incidents. Label="METHODS AND ANALYSIS" ="METHODS"/> <AbstractText STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We will conduct a prospective surveillance study to identify cases of medication incidents among primary care patients in Switzerland over the course of the year 2015. PARTICIPANTS: Patients undergoing drug treatment by 167 general practitioners or paediatricians reporting to the Swiss Federal Sentinel Reporting System. INCLUSION CRITERIA: Any erroneous event, as defined by the physician, related to the medication process and interfering with normal treatment course. EXCLUSION CRITERIA: Lack of treatment effect, adverse drug reactions or drug-drug or drug-disease interactions without detectable treatment error. PRIMARY OUTCOME: Medication incidents. RISK FACTORS: Age, gender, polymedication, morbidity, care dependency, hospitalisation. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Descriptive statistics to assess type, frequency, seasonal and regional distribution of medication incidents and logistic regression to assess their association with potential risk factors. Estimated sample size: 500 medication incidents. LIMITATIONS: We will take into account under-reporting and selective reporting among others as potential sources of bias or imprecision when interpreting the results. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: No formal request was necessary because of fully anonymised data. The results will be published in a peer-reviewed journal. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT0229537.

Azathioprine and 6-Mercaptopurine use in the Swiss IBD cohort : adverse effects, causes of discontinuation and risk of "flares" according to 6-TG levels

Background: To characterize and analyze in the Swiss IBD Cohort: a) reported Azathioprine (AZA) and 6-Mercaptopurine (6-MP) adverse effects (AE), b) causes of discontinuation and c) response to therapy according to gastroenterologists' clinical judgment, d) whether level of 6-TGN < 235pmol/8 x108 red blood cells (RBC) is associated with a higher risk of "flare" occurrence. Methods: Retrospective statistical description, Cox model and Kaplan-Meier survival estimation. Results: 1499 patients with Crohn's Disease (CD) and 1066 with Ulcerative colitis (UC).

Systemic adalimumab induces peripheral corneal infiltrates: a case report.

BACKGROUND: Tumor necrosis factor-alpha inhibitors are widely used agents in the treatment of immune disorders such as rheumatoid arthritis and inflammatory bowel disease. Despite their anti-inflammatory action, paradoxical drug-induced inflammatory events have been occasionally associated with the use of infliximab, etanercept, and in a lesser extent adalimumab. However, eye involvement is uncommon and anterior uveitis is the only reported ocular adverse manifestation. It can be induced by etanercept, but has also been described during adalimumab therapy. We present here the first report of recurrent peripheral corneal infiltrates following subcutaneous injections of adalimumab. CASE PRESENTATION: A 34 year-old Caucasian woman with Crohn's disease presented to the emergency department with bilateral red eyes and discomfort 36 hours after she received her bimonthly dose of subcutaneous adalimumab. Examination revealed bilateral peripheral corneal infiltrates with characteristic features of immune infiltrates. Symptoms and infiltrates regressed after topical corticosteroid therapy, but recurred after each adalimumab injection over the following weeks. CONCLUSION: Paradoxical immune reactions associated with tumor necrosis factor-alpha inhibitors may result either from hypersensitivity mechanisms, or from immune-complex deposition via anti-adalimumab antibodies. Both mechanisms could explain this newly described manifestation. Care should be taken to search for corneal infiltrates in the event of red eye symptoms during adalimumab therapy since they respond to topical corticosteroids and do not necessarily prompt the discontinuation of the immunosuppressive therapy.

Use of GRADE for assessment of evidence about prognosis : rating confidence in estimates of event rates in broad categories of patients.

Main concepts : The Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach defines quality of evidence as confidence in effect estimates; this conceptualization can readily be applied to bodies of evidence estimating the risk of future of events (that is, prognosis) in broadly defined populations In the field of prognosis, a body of observational evidence (including single arms of randomized controlled trials) begins as high quality evidence. The five domains GRADE considers in rating down confidence in estimates of treatment effect-that is, risk of bias, imprecision, inconsistency, indirectness, and publication bias-as well as the GRADE criteria for rating up quality, also apply to estimates of the risk of future of events from a body of prognostic studies Applying these concepts to systematic reviews of prognostic studies provides a ful approach to determine confidence in estimates of overall prognosis in broad populations.

An innovative and shared methodology for event reconstruction using images in forensic science

This study presents an innovative methodology for forensic science image analysis for event reconstruction. The methodology is based on experiences from real cases. It provides real added value to technical guidelines such as standard operating procedures (SOPs) and enriches the community of practices at stake in this field. This bottom-up solution outlines the many facets of analysis and the complexity of the decision-making process. Additionally, the methodology provides a backbone for articulating more detailed and technical procedures and SOPs. It emerged from a grounded theory approach; data from individual and collective interviews with eight Swiss and nine European forensic image analysis experts were collected and interpreted in a continuous, circular and reflexive manner. Throughout the process of conducting interviews and panel discussions, similarities and discrepancies were discussed in detail to provide a comprehensive picture of practices and points of view and to ultimately formalise shared know-how. Our contribution sheds light on the complexity of the choices, actions and interactions along the path of data collection and analysis, enhancing both the researchers' and participants' reflexivity.

Priming psychic and conjuring abilities of a magic demonstration influences event interpretation and random number generation biases

Magical ideation and belief in the paranormal is considered to represent a trait-like character; people either believe in it or not. Yet, anecdotes indicate that exposure to an anomalous event can turn skeptics into believers. This transformation is likely to be accompanied by altered cognitive functioning such as impaired judgments of event likelihood. Here, we investigated whether the exposure to an anomalous event changes individuals' explicit traditional (religious) and non-traditional (e.g., paranormal) beliefs as well as cognitive biases that have previously been associated with non-traditional beliefs, e.g., repetition avoidance when producing random numbers in a mental dice task. In a classroom, 91 students saw a magic demonstration after their psychology lecture. Before the demonstration, half of the students were told that the performance was done respectively by a conjuror (magician group) or a psychic (psychic group). The instruction influenced participants' explanations of the anomalous event. Participants in the magician, as compared to the psychic group, were more likely to explain the event through conjuring abilities while the reverse was true for psychic abilities. Moreover, these explanations correlated positively with their prior traditional and non-traditional beliefs. Finally, we observed that the psychic group showed more repetition avoidance than the magician group, and this effect remained the same regardless of whether assessed before or after the magic demonstration. We conclude that pre-existing beliefs and contextual suggestions both influence people's interpretations of anomalous events and associated cognitive biases. Beliefs and associated cognitive biases are likely flexible well into adulthood and change with actual life events.

Age and adverse drug reactions from psychopharmacological treatment: data from the AMSP drug surveillance programme in Switzerland.

QUESTION UNDER STUDY: The frequency of severe adverse drug reactions (ADRs) from psychotropic drugs was investigated in hospitalised psychiatric patients in relation to their age. Specifically, the incidence of ADRs in patients up to 60 years was compared to that of patients older than 60 years. METHODS: Prescription rates of psychotropic drugs and reports of severe ADRs were collected in psychiatric hospitals in Switzerland between 2001 and 2010. The data stem from the drug surveillance programme AMSP. RESULTS: A total of 699 patients exhibited severe ADRs: 517 out of 28,282 patients up to 60 years (1.8%); 182 out of 11,446 elderly patients (1.6%, ns). Logistic regression analyses showed a significantly negative relationship between the incidence of ADRs and patients' age in general and in particular for weight gain, extrapyramidal motor system (EPMS) symptoms, increased liver enzymes and galactorrhoea. A significantly negative relationship was observed for age and the dosages of olanzapine, quetiapine, risperidone, valproic acid and lamotrigine. When comparing age groups, frequency of ADRs was lower in general for antipsychotic drugs and anticonvulsants, in particular for valproic acid in the elderly. Weight gain was found to be lower in the elderly for antipsychotic drugs, in particular for olanzapine. For the group of mood-stabilising anticonvulsants (carbamazepine, lamotrigine and valproic acid) the elderly exhibited a lower incidence of reported allergic skin reactions. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that for psychiatric inpatients the incidence of common severe ADRs (e.g., weight gain or EPMS symptoms) arising from psychotropic medication decreases with the age of patients.

Developing a user-centric event management system

This thesis describes the development of a software requirements specification for a user-centric event management system. The system is set to satisfy three goals: adding value for the event attendees, adding value for the event organizer, and reducing the costs of arranging and running an event. The requirements are identified by researching the prescriptive traits of event business and the current state of the case company and its environment. First the professional and human needs for events are scrutinized. Second, some recent reports about the current trends in the event business are reviewed. Then the event life cycle is presented using the model of new service development, and online promotion of events and especially word-of-mouth marketing receive special attention. Events are also regarded from the perspective of social networks and social media. The case company’s current state and its competitors are reviewed to formulate the needs which the system should fulfil. Then the currently available solutions for social media oriented event management are reviewed. The result is a set of functional and non-functional requirements. The functional requirements are categorized into social media, social networking, event personalization, event management, and system administration features. The specified features and non-functional requirements satisfy the three goals set for the system.

Mesoscale numerical analysis of the historical November 1982 heavy precipitation event over Andorra (Eastern Pyrenees)

From 6 to 8 November 1982 one of the most catastrophic flash-flood events was recorded in the Eastern Pyrenees affecting Andorra and also France and Spain with rainfall accumulations exceeding 400 mm in 24 h, 44 fatalities and widespread damage. This paper aims to exhaustively document this heavy precipitation event and examines mesoscale simulations performed by the French Meso-NH non-hydrostatic atmospheric model. Large-scale simulations show the slow-evolving synoptic environment favourable for the development of a deep Atlantic cyclone which induced a strong southerly flow over the Eastern Pyrenees. From the evolution of the synoptic pattern four distinct phases have been identified during the event. The mesoscale analysis presents the second and the third phase as the most intense in terms of rainfall accumulations and highlights the interaction of the moist and conditionally unstable flows with the mountains. The presence of a SW low level jet (30 m s-1) around 1500 m also had a crucial role on focusing the precipitation over the exposed south slopes of the Eastern Pyrenees. Backward trajectories based on Eulerian on-line passive tracers indicate that the orographic uplift was the main forcing mechanism which triggered and maintained the precipitating systems more than 30 h over the Pyrenees. The moisture of the feeding flow mainly came from the Atlantic Ocean (7-9 g kg-1) and the role of the Mediterranean as a local moisture source was very limited (2-3 g kg-1) due to the high initial water vapour content of the parcels and the rapid passage over the basin along the Spanish Mediterranean coast (less than 12 h).

Clinical Development Strategies and Outcomes in First-in-Human Trials of Monoclonal Antibodies.

PURPOSE: We conducted a comprehensive review of the design, implementation, and outcome of first-in-human (FIH) trials of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) to clearly determine early clinical development strategies for this class of compounds. METHODS: We performed a PubMed search using appropriate terms to identify reports of FIH trials of mAbs published in peer-reviewed journals between January 2000 and April 2013. RESULTS: A total of 82 publications describing FIH trials were selected for analysis. Only 27 articles (33%) reported the criteria used for selecting the starting dose (SD). Dose escalation was performed using rule-based methods in 66 trials (80%). The median number of planned dose levels was five (range, two to 13). The median of the ratio between the highest planned dose and the SD was 27 (range, two to 3,333). Although in 56 studies (68%) at least one grade 3 or 4 toxicity event was reported, no dose-limiting toxicity was observed in 47 trials (57%). The highest planned dose was reached in all trials, but the maximum-tolerated dose (MTD) was defined in only 13 studies (16%). The median of the ratio between MTD and SD was eight (range, four to 1,000). The recommended phase II dose was indicated in 34 studies (41%), but in 25 (73%) of these trials, this dose was chosen without considering toxicity as the main selection criterion. CONCLUSION: This literature review highlights the broad design heterogeneity of FIH trials testing mAbs. Because of the limited observed toxicity, the MTD was infrequently reached, and therefore, the recommended phase II dose for subsequent clinical trials was only tentatively defined.

Drug-eluting stents compared to bare-metal stents improve short-term survival in patients with acute myocardial infarction undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention: a nationwide prospective analysis of the AMIS Plus registry.

BACKGROUND: Recently, it has been suggested that the type of stent used in primary percutaneous coronary interventions (pPCI) might impact upon the outcomes of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Indeed, drug-eluting stents (DES) reduce neointimal hyperplasia compared to bare-metal stents (BMS). Moreover, the later generation DES, due to its biocompatible polymer coatings and stent design, allows for greater deliverability, improved endothelial healing and therefore less restenosis and thrombus generation. However, data on the safety and performance of DES in large cohorts of AMI is still limited. AIM: To compare the early outcome of DES vs. BMS in AMI patients. METHODS: This was a prospective, multicentre analysis containing patients from 64 hospitals in Switzerland with AMI undergoing pPCI between 2005 and 2013. The primary endpoint was in-hospital all-cause death, whereas the secondary endpoint included a composite measure of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) of death, reinfarction, and cerebrovascular event. RESULTS: Of 20,464 patients with a primary diagnosis of AMI and enrolled to the AMIS Plus registry, 15,026 were referred for pPCI and 13,442 received stent implantation. 10,094 patients were implanted with DES and 2,260 with BMS. The overall in-hospital mortality was significantly lower in patients with DES compared to those with BMS implantation (2.6% vs. 7.1%,p < 0.001). The overall in-hospital MACCE after DES was similarly lower compared to BMS (3.5% vs. 7.6%, p < 0.001). After adjusting for all confounding covariables, DES remained an independent predictor for lower in-hospital mortality (OR 0.51,95% CI 0.40-0.67, p < 0.001). Since groups differed as regards to baseline characteristics and pharmacological treatment, we performed a propensity score matching (PSM) to limit potential biases. Even after the PSM, DES implantation remained independently associated with a reduced risk of in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.39-0.76, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In unselected patients from a nationwide, real-world cohort, we found DES, compared to BMS, was associated with lower in-hospital mortality and MACCE. The identification of optimal treatment strategies of patients with AMI needs further randomised evaluation; however, our findings suggest a potential benefit with DES.

Cerebriforms cells in cerebrum: an unusual finding

Background. Mycosis Fungoides (MF) is the most common cutaneous T-cell lymphoma, and large cell trasformation (tMF) is an adverse prognostic event. Extra-cutaneous dissemination can occur in the course of the disease, but dissemination to the central nervous system (CNS) is uncommon. Moreover, CNS lymphomas are overall rare and most often of B-cell phenotype. We report a case of CNS large T-cell lymphoma presenting as multiple cerebral lesions in a patient with a history of MF. Methods. We report a case of a 33-year-old woman, known since the age of 16 for erythematous plaques thought to be atopic dermatitis, who developed, end 2012, multiple nodular skin lesions and peripheral adenopathies. Two skin lesions were biopsied simultaneously, and diagnosed as MF and tMF. A lymph node biopsy showed dermatopathic changes without lymphoma (Stage IIB). She received local treatment (UVB, PUVA and radiation therapy) and interferon therapy, and experienced almost complete remission. In 2015 neurological symptoms lead to evidence multiple cerebral lesions, suspicious for lymphoma, evaluated by stereotaxic biopsies. We compared histopathological and molecular features of these with previous skin specimens. After negative bone marrow staging biopsy, she was recently started on chemotherapy (MATRIX). Short follow-up shows rapidly worsening clinical conditions. Results. One of the initial skin biopsies showed atypical lymphoid cells with epidermotropism, Pautrier abcesses and CD4+ CD30- phenotype; the other revealed diffuse dermal infiltration by predominantly large cerebriform tumor cells with high proliferative fraction, and CD2−CD3 −CD4+/−CD7−CD30+ALK- EMA- non-cytotoxic immunophenotype. Altogether, these results led us to diagnose MF and tMF, respectively. The brain was infiltrated by large atypical lymphoid cells with cerebriform nuclei, somewhat anaplastic features and perivascular distribution. By immunohistochemistry, tumor cells were highly proliferative, with a CD2−CD3+CD5−CD7+CD30+ activated cytotoxic immunophenotype. A diagnosis of CD30+ cytotoxic peripheral T-cell lymphoma was retained. TRG and TRB clonality analyses revealed clonal rearrangements in skin and CNS biopsies, with identical patterns in both skin specimens but only minimally overlapping profiles when compared to the CNS sample. Der Pathologe 6 ? 2015 | 633 Conclusions. The reported case illustrates an uncommon finding of a CNS T-cell lymphoma in a patient with previous MF, questioning the clonal relationship between the two diseases and challenging the adequate classification of this CNS lymphoma as either a progression or a de novo lymphoma. Despite differences in immunophenotype and clonality patterns, this CNS lymphoma could possibly represent an aggressive divergent evolution of a primary cutaneous T-cell lymphoma. Additional sequencing is ongoing to try to solve the question.

Pharmacogenetic and clinical study on adverse effects induced by psychotropic drugs

Second-generation antipsychotics (SGAs) have become the first-line antipsychotic treatment for psychotic disorders due to their better overall tolerance compared to classical antipsychotics. However, metabolic side effects such as weight gain are frequently described during treatment with SGAs and/or other psychotropic drugs including some antidepressants and mood stabilizers, which may also result in poor adherence to treatment. The aim of this work was to investigate different methods to predict common side effects, in particular weight gain during treatment with weight gain inducing psychotropic drugs. Firstly, clinical data were used to determine the potential predictive power of a one month weight gain on weight increase after three and 12 months of treatment (n=351 patients). A fast and strong weight gain of >5% after a period of one month (>5%WG) was found to be the best predictor for an important weight gain at three (>15%) and 12 months (>20%). Similar analyses in an independent cohort of psychiatric adolescents (n=42), showed that a comparable >4% weight gain at one month is the best predictor for an important weight gain at three months (>15%). Secondly, we aimed to determine whether an extensive analysis of genes could be used, in addition to clinical factors, to predict patients at risk for >5%WG or for type 2 diabetes (T2D). Adding genetic markers to clinical variables to predict >5%WG increased significantly the area under the curve (AUC) of the analysis (AUCfinai:0.92, AUCdmicai:0.75, pcO.OOOl, n=248). Conversely, genetic risk scores were found to be associated with T2D (OR: 2.5, p=0.03, n=285) but without a significant increase of AUC'when compared to the prediction based to clinical factors alone. Finally, therapeutic drug monitoring was used to predict extrapyramidal symptoms during risperidone treatment (n=150). Active moiety (sum of risperidone and of its active metabolite 9- hydroxyrisperidone plasma concentrations) of >40 ng/ml should be targeted only in case of insufficient response. These results highlight different approaches for personalizing psychotropic treatments in order to reduce related side effects. Further research is needed, in particular on the identification of genetic markers, to improve the implementation of these results into clinical practice. Résumé Les antipsychotiques atypiques (APA) sont devenus le traitement antipsychotique de première intention pour le traitement des psychoses, grâce à un profil d'effets secondaires plus favorables comparé aux antipsychotiques typiques. Néanmoins, d'autres effets indésirables d'ordre métabolique (ex. prise pondérale) sont observés sous APA, stabilisateurs de l'humeur et/ou certains antidépresseurs, pouvant aussi limiter l'adhérence au traitement. L'objectif de ce travail est d'explorer différentes méthodes permettant de prédire des effets secondaires courants, en particulier la prise de poids durant un traitement avec des psychotropes pouvant induire un tel effet. Dans une première partie, des données cliniques ont été évaluées pour leurs potentiels prédictifs d'une prise de poids à un mois sur une prise de poids à trois et 12 mois de traitement (n=351 patients). Une prise de poids rapide et forte >5% à un mois (PP>5%) s'est avérée être le meilleur prédicteur pour une prise pondérale importante à trois (>15%) et 12 (>20%) mois de traitement. Des analyses similaires dans une cohorte pédiatrique (n=42) ont indiqué une prise de poids >4% à un mois comme le meilleur prédicteur pour une prise pondérale importante (>15%) à trois mois de traitement. Dans une deuxième partie, des marqueurs génétiques, en complément aux données cliniques, ont été analysés pour leur contribution potentielle à la prédiction d'une PP>5% et au dépistage du diabète de type 2 (DT2). L'ajout de variants génétiques aux données cliniques afin de prédire une PP>5% a augmenté significativement l'aire sous la courbe (ASC) de l'analyse (ASCflnai:0.92, ASCC|inique:0.75, p<0.0001, n=248). Concernant le DT2, un score génétique est associé au DT2 (OR: 2.5, p=0.03, n=285), néanmoins aucune augmentation significative de l'ASC n'a été observée par rapport à l'analyse avec les données cliniques seules. Finalement, des mesures de concentrations plasmatiques de médicaments ont été utilisées pour prédire la survenue de symptômes extrapyramidaux sous rispéridone (n=150). Cette analyse nous a permis d'établir qu'une concentration plasmatique de rispéridone associée à son métabolite actif >40 ng/ml ne devrait être recherchée qu'en cas de réponse clinique insuffisante. Ces différents résultats soulignent différentes approches pour personnaliser la prescription de psychotropes afin de réduire la survenue d'effets secondaires. Des études supplémentaires sont néanmoins nécessaires, en particulier sur l'identification de marqueurs génétiques, afin d'améliorer l'implémentation de ces résultats en pratique clinique. Résumé large publique Les antipsychotiques atypiques et autres traitements psychotropes sont couramment utilisés pour traiter les symptômes liés à la schizophrénie et aux troubles de l'humeur. Comme pour tout médicament, des effets secondaires sont observés. L'objectif de ce travail est d'explorer différentes méthodes qui permettraient de prédire la survenue de certains effets indésirables, en particulier une prise de poids et la survenue d'un diabète. Dans une première partie, nous avons évalué l'effet d'une prise de poids précoce sur une prise de poids au long terme sous traitement psychotrope. Les analyses ont mis en évidence dans une population psychiatrique qu'une prise de poids à un mois >5% par rapport au poids initial permettait de prédire une prise pondérale importante après trois (>15%) et 12 (>20%) mois de traitement. Un résultat semblable a. été observé dans un autre groupe de patients exclusivement pédiatriques. Dans une deuxième partie, nous avons évalué la contribution potentielle de marqueurs génétiques à la prédiction d'une prise pondérale de >5% après un mois de traitement ainsi que dans la survenue d'un diabète de type 2. Pour la prise de poids, la combinaison des données génétiques aux données cliniques a permis d'augmenter de 17% la précision de la prédiction, en passant de 70% à 87%. Concernant la survenue d'un diabète, les données génétiques n'ont pas amélioré la prédiction. Finalement, nous avons analysé la relation possible entre les concentrations sanguines d'un antipsychotique atypique couramment utilisé, la rispéridone, et la survenue d'effets secondaires (ici les tremblements). Il est ressorti de cette étude qu'une concentration plasmatique du médicament supérieure à 40 ng/ml ne devrait être dépassée qu'en cas de réponse thérapeutique insuffisante, au risque de voir augmenter la survenue d'effets secondaires du type tremblements. Ces résultats démontrent la possibilité de prédire avec une bonne précision la survenue de certains effets secondaires. Cependant, en particulier dans le domaine de la génétique, d'autres études sont nécessaires afin de confirmer les résultats obtenus dans nos analyses. Une fois cette étape franchie, il serait possible d'utiliser ces outils dans la pratique clinique. A terme, cela pourrait permettre au prescripteur de sélectionner les traitements les mieux adaptés aux profils spécifiques de chaque patient.

Effect of Cumulating Exposure to Abacavir on the Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Events in Patients From the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Patients with HIV exposed to the antiretroviral drug abacavir may have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). There is concern that this association arises because of a channeling bias. Even if exposure is a risk, it is not clear how that risk changes as exposure cumulates. METHODS: We assess the effect of exposure to abacavir on the risk of CVD events in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. We use a new marginal structural Cox model to estimate the effect of abacavir as a flexible function of past exposures while accounting for risk factors that potentially lie on a causal pathway between exposure to abacavir and CVD. RESULTS: A total of 11,856 patients were followed for a median of 6.6 years; 365 patients had a CVD event (4.6 events per 1000 patient-years). In a conventional Cox model, recent--but not cumulative--exposure to abacavir increased the risk of a CVD event. In the new marginal structural Cox model, continued exposure to abacavir during the past 4 years increased the risk of a CVD event (hazard ratio = 2.06; 95% confidence interval: 1.43 to 2.98). The estimated function for the effect of past exposures suggests that exposure during the past 6-36 months caused the greatest increase in risk. CONCLUSIONS: Abacavir increases the risk of a CVD event: the effect of exposure is not immediate, rather the risk increases as exposure cumulates over the past few years. This gradual increase in risk is not consistent with a rapidly acting mechanism, such as acute inflammation.