Development of advanced tools and methods for the assessment and management of risk due to atypical major accident scenarios

Proper hazard identification has become progressively more difficult to achieve, as witnessed by several major accidents that took place in Europe, such as the Ammonium Nitrate explosion at Toulouse (2001) and the vapour cloud explosion at Buncefield (2005), whose accident scenarios were not considered by their site safety case. Furthermore, the rapid renewal in the industrial technology has brought about the need to upgrade hazard identification methodologies. Accident scenarios of emerging technologies, which are not still properly identified, may remain unidentified until they take place for the first time. The consideration of atypical scenarios deviating from normal expectations of unwanted events or worst case reference scenarios is thus extremely challenging. A specific method named Dynamic Procedure for Atypical Scenarios Identification (DyPASI) was developed as a complementary tool to bow-tie identification techniques. The main aim of the methodology is to provide an easier but comprehensive hazard identification of the industrial process analysed, by systematizing information from early signals of risk related to past events, near misses and inherent studies. DyPASI was validated on the two examples of new and emerging technologies: Liquefied Natural Gas regasification and Carbon Capture and Storage. The study broadened the knowledge on the related emerging risks and, at the same time, demonstrated that DyPASI is a valuable tool to obtain a complete and updated overview of potential hazards. Moreover, in order to tackle underlying accident causes of atypical events, three methods for the development of early warning indicators were assessed: the Resilience-based Early Warning Indicator (REWI) method, the Dual Assurance method and the Emerging Risk Key Performance Indicator method. REWI was found to be the most complementary and effective of the three, demonstrating that its synergy with DyPASI would be an adequate strategy to improve hazard identification methodologies towards the capture of atypical accident scenarios.

Severe Accident Simulation of Small Modular Reactors

Since the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2), accident in 1979 which led to the meltdown of about one half of the reactor core and to limited releases of radioactive materials to the environment, an important international effort has been made on severe accident research. The present work aims to investigate the behaviour of a Small Modular Reactor during severe accident conditions. In order to perform these analyses, a SMR has been studied for the European reference severe accident analysis code ASTEC, developed by IRSN and GRS. In the thesis will be described in detail the IRIS Small Modular Reactor; the reference reactor chosen to develop the ASTEC input deck. The IRIS model was developed in the framework of a research collaboration with the IRSN development team. In the thesis will be described systematically the creation of the ASTEC IRIS input deck: the nodalization scheme adopted, the solution used to simulate the passive safety systems and the strong interaction between the reactor vessel and the containment. The ASTEC SMR model will be tested against the RELAP-GOTHIC coupled code model, with respect to a Design Basis Accident, to evaluate the capability of the ASTEC code on reproducing correctly the behaviour of the nuclear system. Once the model has been validated, a severe accident scenario will be simulated and the obtained results along with the nuclear system response will be analysed.

[Chronic right-sided pain-associated nondermatomal somatosensory deficit following an accident]

We present the case of a 48-year old man who, eight years after an industrial accident, presents with chronic right-sided nondermatomal pain and hypaesthesia to heat and touch. During symmetric peripheral touch functional magnetic resonance imaging revealed hypometabolism in the left thalamus, somatosensory cortex, and anterior cingulate cortex. Pain-associated nondermatomal somatosensory deficits (NDSDs) localizing to one side of the body are a frequent clinical entity, which are often triggered by an accident. The tendency of NDSDs to extend to adjunct ipsilateral body parts and to become chronic points to maladaptive adjustment of pain-processing areas in the central nervous system. Psychological stress prior to or around the triggering event seems an important risk factor for NDSDs.

[Examination reports on survived strangulation cases]

Clinical-forensic examination of strangulation victims is an increasing part of the routine of many forensic pathology institutes. The cases examined between 2004 and 2008 at the Institute of Legal Medicine of the Hanover Medical School were retrospectively analysed. In total, the study material comprised 218 victims (175 females and 43 males). In 80.7 %, the clinical-forensic examination was performed within 24 hours after the incident. In the overwhelming number of cases, the alleged perpetrator was no stranger. 128 victims (58.7 %) had strangulation marks, 32 victims (14.7 %) ligature marks and 65 victims (29.8 %) nail marks. Four victims showed injuries of the laryngeal and pharyngeal structures (reddening, hematomas, swelling and in one case a fracture of the cricoid cartilage on both sides). Extensive petechiae were predominantly seen in the conjunctivae, the buccal mucosa and the skin of the face in cases where the victims suffered a loss of consciousness. 87 cases (39.9% were classified as potentially life-threatening and 30 cases (13.8 %) as acute life-threatening events. This classification is of legal relevance for the penalty. In addition, 60 victims experienced sexual violence. These results suggest that early clinical-forensic examination is crucial for documenting forensic evidence in support of police investigations and may deliver significant details relevant in court.

[Analysis of clinical forensic examination reports on sexually abused children]

Clinical forensic examinations of children suspected of having been sexually abused are increasingly part of the routine of medicolegal institutes. The findings collected from 2005 until 2007 at the Institute of Legal Medicine of the Hanover Medical School were analysed retrospectively. Altogether, 91 children (74 females, 17 males, mean age 8.7 years) were examined. In 87.9% of the cases, the examination had been ordered by the police. In 73.6%, the victim knew the suspected perpetrator well or he was a family member. 40.7% of the children were seen within 72 hours after the alleged abuse. 12.1% of the children had extragenital lesions. In 27% of the victims, marked anogenital injuries were found, which were characteristic of sexual abuse in 9%. In 18 cases (20.2%), swabs were taken for spermatozoa detection. 3 of 17 vaginal smears showed positive test results for sperm up to 21 hours after the incident. No spermatozoa could be detected in 4 anal and 2 oral swabs as well as in one swab taken from the skin of the victim's thigh. In summary, the evaluation shows that early clinical forensic examination of children suspected of having been sexually abused is crucial to document evidence that is highly significant for the investigation and court proceedings. Often suspected sexual child abuse cannot be proved by medical findings alone. Of course, the absence of anogenital injuries does nor rule out sexual abuse.

Analysis of clinical forensic examination reports on sexual assault

Medical-forensic examination of sexual assault victims and alleged offenders is a common task of many forensic institutes. In the current study, the results from samples taken at the Institute of Legal Medicine, Hanover Medical School, during a period from 2005 to 2007 were retrospectively evaluated. In total, 292 victims (283 females and nine males) and 88 suspects were examined. At the time of the assault, 41.8% of the victims and 43.2% of the alleged perpetrators were under the influence of alcohol. Injuries were found in 84.9% of the victims and 39.8% of the suspects. Thirty victims (10.3%) reported having been choked or strangled. Cytology was performed in 218 victims. In 81 cases (38.0%), sperm could be detected in vaginal swabs up to 3 days post-assault. In seven (18.9%) out of 37 anal samples, evidence of sperm could be found 24 h post-assault. None of 22 oral samples was positive for sperm. Out of 301 sexual assault cases, 171 could be proved by means of medical-forensic examination. In summary, our evaluation shows that an early medical-forensic examination of both victim and suspect can secure numerous medical findings. Furthermore, persons intoxicated by alcohol, handicapped persons and persons with psychiatric disorders are more vulnerable to become a sexual assault victim.

Phosphatidylethanol: normalization during detoxification, gender aspects and correlation with other biomarkers and self-reports

Phosphatidylethanol (PEth) is a direct ethanol metabolite, and has recently attracted attention as biomarker of ethanol intake. The aims of the current study are: (1) to characterize the normalization time of PEth in larger samples than previously conducted; (2) to elucidate potential gender differences; and (3) to report the correlation of PEth with other biomarkers and self-reported alcohol consumption. Fifty-seven alcohol-dependent patients (ICD 10 F 10.25; 9 females, 48 males) entering medical detoxification at three study sites were enrolled. The study sample was comprised of 48 males and 9 females, with mean age 43.5. Mean gamma glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) was 209.61 U/l, average mean corpuscular volume (MCV) was 97.35 fl, mean carbohydrate deficient transferrin (%CDT) was 8.68, and mean total ethanol intake in the last 7 days was 1653 g. PEth was measured in heparinized whole blood with a high-pressure liquid chromatography method, while GGT, MCV and %CDT were measured using routine methods. PEth levels at day 1 of detoxification ranged between 0.63 and 26.95 micromol/l (6.22 mean, 4.70 median, SD 4.97). There were no false negatives at day 1. Sensitivities for the other biomarkers were 40.4% for MCV, 73.1% for GGT and 69.2% for %CDT, respectively. No gender differences were found for PEth levels at any time point. Our data suggest that PEth is (1) a suitable intermediate term marker of ethanol intake in both sexes; and (2) sensitivity is extraordinary high in alcohol dependent patients. The results add further evidence to the data that suggest that PEth has potential as a candidate for a sensitive and specific biomarker, which reflects longer-lasting intake of higher amounts of alcohol and seemingly has the above mentioned certain advantages over traditional biomarkers.

Paediatric traffic accident and obstructive sleep apnoea by antrochoanal polyps: case report and literature review

Antrochoanal polyps are hyperplasias of the nasal mucosa, which have their origin in the maxillary sinus and extend through the nasal cavity and the choanae into the naso- and oropharynx. In children antrochoanal polyps represent one of the more frequent manifestations of paediatric nasal polyposis. Most studies on antrochoanal polyps in children report only on nasal obstruction, hyponasal speech and snoring, which are also encountered in the most common cause of obstructive sleep apnoea syndrome; i.e. adenoid or tonsillar hyperplasia. Only very few studies report on additional health hazards by antrochoanal polyps ranging from obstructive sleep apnoea syndrome to swallowing disorders and cachexia. We present the case of an 8 year old girl with a bicycle accident caused by excessive daytime sleepiness and obstructive sleep apnoea syndrome due to an extensive antrochoanal polyp. After a transnasal polypectomy and meatotomy type II the obstructive sleep apnoea and day time sleepiness resolved completely. Awareness of this additional health hazard is important and correct evaluation and timely diagnosis of a potential antrochoanal polyp is mandatory because minimally invasive rhinosurgery is highly curative in preventing further impending problems.

The Accident and the Beautiful: On Alan Shapiro's "The Accident"

http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/literature_and_medicine/v030/30.1.schweizer.pdf

Multiplicity of data in trial reports and the reliability of meta-analyses: empirical study

Objectives To examine the extent of multiplicity of data in trial reports and to assess the impact of multiplicity on meta-analysis results. Design Empirical study on a cohort of Cochrane systematic reviews. Data sources All Cochrane systematic reviews published from issue 3 in 2006 to issue 2 in 2007 that presented a result as a standardised mean difference (SMD). We retrieved trial reports contributing to the first SMD result in each review, and downloaded review protocols. We used these SMDs to identify a specific outcome for each meta-analysis from its protocol. Review methods Reviews were eligible if SMD results were based on two to ten randomised trials and if protocols described the outcome. We excluded reviews if they only presented results of subgroup analyses. Based on review protocols and index outcomes, two observers independently extracted the data necessary to calculate SMDs from the original trial reports for any intervention group, time point, or outcome measure compatible with the protocol. From the extracted data, we used Monte Carlo simulations to calculate all possible SMDs for every meta-analysis. Results We identified 19 eligible meta-analyses (including 83 trials). Published review protocols often lacked information about which data to choose. Twenty-four (29%) trials reported data for multiple intervention groups, 30 (36%) reported data for multiple time points, and 29 (35%) reported the index outcome measured on multiple scales. In 18 meta-analyses, we found multiplicity of data in at least one trial report; the median difference between the smallest and largest SMD results within a meta-analysis was 0.40 standard deviation units (range 0.04 to 0.91). Conclusions Multiplicity of data can affect the findings of systematic reviews and meta-analyses. To reduce the risk of bias, reviews and meta-analyses should comply with prespecified protocols that clearly identify time points, intervention groups, and scales of interest.

Format preferences of district attorneys for post-mortem medical imaging reports: understandability, cost effectiveness, and suitability for the courtroom: a questionnaire based study

The objective of this study was to explore the perception of the legal authorities regarding different report types and visualization techniques for post-mortem radiological findings.

Do alpine skiers and snowboarders wear protective equipment more often after an accident?

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY/PRINCIPLES: Analysis of changes in the behaviour of wearing protective equipment by alpine skiers and snowboarders after injury, performed at a level I trauma centre in Switzerland.

Reporting of consistency of blood pressure control in randomized controlled trials of antihypertensive drugs: a systematic review of 1372 trial reports

Hypertension is a powerful treatable risk factor for stroke. Reports of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of antihypertensive drugs rightly concentrate on clinical outcomes, but control of blood pressure (BP) during follow-up is also important, particularly given that inconsistent control is associated with a high risk of stroke and that antihypertensive drug classes differ in this regard.