Analysis and visualization of energy use for university campus

The reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is one of the big global challenges for the next decades due to its severe impact on the atmosphere that leads to a change in the climate and other environmental factors. One of the main sources of greenhouse gas is energy consumption, therefore a number of initiatives and calls for awareness and sustainability in energy use are issued among different types of institutional and organizations. The European Council adopted in 2007 energy and climate change objectives for 20% improvement until 2020. All European countries are required to use energy with more efficiency. Several steps could be conducted for energy reduction: understanding the buildings behavior through time, revealing the factors that influence the consumption, applying the right measurement for reduction and sustainability, visualizing the hidden connection between our daily habits impacts on the natural world and promoting to more sustainable life. Researchers have suggested that feedback visualization can effectively encourage conservation with energy reduction rate of 18%. Furthermore, researchers have contributed to the identification process of a set of factors which are very likely to influence consumption. Such as occupancy level, occupants behavior, environmental conditions, building thermal envelope, climate zones, etc. Nowadays, the amount of energy consumption at the university campuses are huge and it needs great effort to meet the reduction requested by European Council as well as the cost reduction. Thus, the present study was performed on the university buildings as a use case to: a. Investigate the most dynamic influence factors on energy consumption in campus; b. Implement prediction model for electricity consumption using different techniques, such as the traditional regression way and the alternative machine learning techniques; and c. Assist energy management by providing a real time energy feedback and visualization in campus for more awareness and better decision making. This methodology is implemented to the use case of University Jaume I (UJI), located in Castellon, Spain.

Tegumentary leishmaniasis in the State of Amazonas: what have we learned and what do we need?

This study evaluated the occurrence of American tegumentary leishmaniasis (ATL) in the State of Amazonas, Brazil, in the last 30 years with emphasis on the last 10 years (2001 to 2010). The disease was predominantly observed in males (76.2%), in the 21- to 30-year-old age group (26.6%) and in extractive workers (43.7%); 3.3% of the cases were the mucosal form. The endemic channel shows the disease seasonality, with a predominance of cases at the beginning and end of each year. The number of cases by municipality in the period of 2001-2010 shows the maintenance of the endemic in the localities where the highest numbers of cases have always been registered, namely, Manaus, Rio Preto da Eva, Itacoatiara and Presidente Figueiredo. The comparison of data from 2001 to 2005 and from 2006 to 2010 showed the emergence of this disease in municipalities that had been previously unaffected. In the last years, there has been a significant increase in the activities of control, diagnosis and treatment of leishmaniasis in the State of Amazonas. In conclusion, the historical series of ATL analyzed in this study suggests that the transmission foci remain and are even expanding, though without continuous transmission in the intra- or peridomicile settings. Moreover, the disease will persist in the Amazon while the factors associated with infection acquisition relative to forest exploitation continue to have economic appeal. There is a real expectation of wide variations in disease incidence that can be influenced by climate and economic aspects.

Defining habitat characteristics influencing the distribution, density and growth of Plaice (Pleuronectes Platessa) and Dab (Limanda Limanda) on west of Ireland nursery grounds

Plaice (Pleuronectes platessa, L.) and dab (Limanda limanda, L.) are among the most abundant flatfishes in the north-eastern Atlantic region and the dominant species in shallow coastal nursery grounds. With increasing pressures on commercial flatfish stocks in combination with changing coastal environments, better knowledge of population dynamics during all life stages is needed to evaluate variability in year-class strength and recruitment to the fishery. The aim of this research was to investigate the complex interplay of biotic and abiotic habitat components influencing the distribution, density and growth of plaice and dab during the vulnerable juvenile life stage and to gain insight in spatial and temporal differences in nursery habitat quality along the west coast of Ireland. Intraspecific variability in plaice diet was observed at different spatial scales and showed a link with condition, recent growth and morphology. This highlights the effect of food availability on habitat quality and the need to consider small scale variation when attempting to link habitat quality to feeding, growth and condition of juvenile flatfish. There was evidence of trophic, spatial and temporal resource partitioning between juvenile plaice and dab allowing the co-existence of morphologically similar species in nursery grounds. In the limited survey years there was no evidence that the carrying capacity of the studied nursery grounds was reached but spatial and interannual variations in fish growth indicated fluctuating environments in terms of food availability, predator densities, sediment features and physico-chemical conditions. Predation was the most important factor affecting habitat quality for juvenile plaice and dab with crab densities negatively correlated to fish condition whereas shrimp densities were negatively associated with densities of small-sized juveniles in spring. A comparison of proxies for fish growth showed the advantage of Fulton’s K for routine use whereas RNA:DNA ratios proved less powerful when short-term environmental fluctuations are lacking. This study illustrated how distinct sets of habitat features can drive spatial variation in density and condition of juvenile flatfish highlighting the value of studying both variables when modeling habitat requirements. The habitat models generated in this study also provide a powerful tool to predict potential climate and anthropogenic impacts on the distribution and condition of juveniles in flatfish nurseries. The need for effective coastal zone management was emphasized to ensure a sustainable use of coastal resources and successful flatfish recruitment to the fishery.

Stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope composition of waters from mine tailings in different climatic environments

The stable isotope composition of waters (delta H-2, delta O-18) can be used as a natural tracer of hydrologic processes in systems affected by acid mine drainage. We investigated the delta H-2 and delta O-18 values of pore waters from four oxidizing sulfidic mine tailings impoundments in different climatic regions of Chile (Piuquenes at La Andina with Alpine climate, Cauquenes and Caren at El Teniente with Mediterranean climate, and Talabre at the Chuquicamata deposit with hyperarid climate). No clear relationship was found between altitude and isotopic composition. The observed displacement of the tailings pore waters from the local meteoric water line toward higher delta O-18 values (by similar to +2% delta O-18 relative to delta H-2) is partly due to water-rock interaction processes, including hydration and O-isotope exchange with sulfates and Fe(III) oxyhydroxides produced by pyrite oxidation. In most tailings, from the saturated zone toward the surface, isotopically different zones can be distinguished. Zone I is characterized by an upward depletion of H-2 and O-18 in the pore waters from the saturated zone and the lowermost vadose zone, due to ascending diffused isotopically light water triggered by the constant loss of water vapor by evaporation at the surface. In zone II, the capillary flow of a mix of vapor and liquid water causes an evaporative isotopic enrichment in H-2 and O-18. At the top of the tailings in dry climate a zone III between the capillary zone and the surface contains isotopically light diffused and atmospheric water vapor. In temperate climates, the upper part of the profile is affected by recent rainfall and zone III may not differ isotopically from zone II.

Agronomic and commercial performance of four Spanish carob cultivars

The carob tree (Ceratonia siliqua) shows interesting prospects for some coastal Mediterranean growing areas and is widely used for industrial, agricultural, and ornamental purposes. It can be an alternative crop adapted to part-time farming and can also be used to regenerate vegetation in areas with a mild climate and erosion problems. Four Spanish carob cultivars were examined (Banya de Cabra, Duraio, Matalafera, and Rojal) to determine the one that performed the best for planting new orchards in northeastern Spain (Catalonia). The trees in this rain-fed trial (average rainfall of 500 mm) were planted in 1986 using seedling rootstocks that were budded in 1987. The trees were trained using the free-vase system and were spaced 8 x 9 m (138 trees/ha including 12% pollinators). The results showed that ‘Rojal’ was the earliest bearing cultivar. However, no significant differences were observed for cumulative pod production 18 years after budding. With respect to cumulative seed yield, ‘Duraio’ had the highest production (95 kg/tree). The lowest tree vigor (trunk cross-section) was observed in ‘Matalafera’. ‘Rojal’ trees produced the largest pods (average fruit weight of 18.9 g) and lowest seed content (11.8%), while ‘Banya de Cabra’ and ‘Duraio’ produced the smallest fruit (weighing 15.3 and 16.2 g, respectively) with the highest seed content (15.2% and 17.3%, respectively). Gum content, expressed as a percentage of the dry weight, was highest in ‘Duraio’ (56.9%) and was lowest in ‘Rojal’ (54.1%). Thus, in terms of kernel and pod production, ‘Duraio’ appeared to be the best-performing female cultivar for planting new carob orchards

Species distribution models for conservation-oriented studies in Switzerland : filling data and tools gaps

SUMMARYSpecies distribution models (SDMs) represent nowadays an essential tool in the research fields of ecology and conservation biology. By combining observations of species occurrence or abundance with information on the environmental characteristic of the observation sites, they can provide information on the ecology of species, predict their distributions across the landscape or extrapolate them to other spatial or time frames. The advent of SDMs, supported by geographic information systems (GIS), new developments in statistical models and constantly increasing computational capacities, has revolutionized the way ecologists can comprehend species distributions in their environment. SDMs have brought the tool that allows describing species realized niches across a multivariate environmental space and predict their spatial distribution. Predictions, in the form of probabilistic maps showing the potential distribution of the species, are an irreplaceable mean to inform every single unit of a territory about its biodiversity potential. SDMs and the corresponding spatial predictions can be used to plan conservation actions for particular species, to design field surveys, to assess the risks related to the spread of invasive species, to select reserve locations and design reserve networks, and ultimately, to forecast distributional changes according to scenarios of climate and/or land use change.By assessing the effect of several factors on model performance and on the accuracy of spatial predictions, this thesis aims at improving techniques and data available for distribution modelling and at providing the best possible information to conservation managers to support their decisions and action plans for the conservation of biodiversity in Switzerland and beyond. Several monitoring programs have been put in place from the national to the global scale, and different sources of data now exist and start to be available to researchers who want to model species distribution. However, because of the lack of means, data are often not gathered at an appropriate resolution, are sampled only over limited areas, are not spatially explicit or do not provide a sound biological information. A typical example of this is data on 'habitat' (sensu biota). Even though this is essential information for an effective conservation planning, it often has to be approximated from land use, the closest available information. Moreover, data are often not sampled according to an established sampling design, which can lead to biased samples and consequently to spurious modelling results. Understanding the sources of variability linked to the different phases of the modelling process and their importance is crucial in order to evaluate the final distribution maps that are to be used for conservation purposes.The research presented in this thesis was essentially conducted within the framework of the Landspot Project, a project supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation. The main goal of the project was to assess the possible contribution of pre-modelled 'habitat' units to model the distribution of animal species, in particular butterfly species, across Switzerland. While pursuing this goal, different aspects of data quality, sampling design and modelling process were addressed and improved, and implications for conservation discussed. The main 'habitat' units considered in this thesis are grassland and forest communities of natural and anthropogenic origin as defined in the typology of habitats for Switzerland. These communities are mainly defined at the phytosociological level of the alliance. For the time being, no comprehensive map of such communities is available at the national scale and at fine resolution. As a first step, it was therefore necessary to create distribution models and maps for these communities across Switzerland and thus to gather and collect the necessary data. In order to reach this first objective, several new developments were necessary such as the definition of expert models, the classification of the Swiss territory in environmental domains, the design of an environmentally stratified sampling of the target vegetation units across Switzerland, the development of a database integrating a decision-support system assisting in the classification of the relevés, and the downscaling of the land use/cover data from 100 m to 25 m resolution.The main contributions of this thesis to the discipline of species distribution modelling (SDM) are assembled in four main scientific papers. In the first, published in Journal of Riogeography different issues related to the modelling process itself are investigated. First is assessed the effect of five different stepwise selection methods on model performance, stability and parsimony, using data of the forest inventory of State of Vaud. In the same paper are also assessed: the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5 prior to model calibration; the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences; four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation; and finally, the effect of integrating predictor interactions. Results allowed to specifically enhance the GRASP tool (Generalized Regression Analysis and Spatial Predictions) that now incorporates new selection methods and the possibility of dealing with interactions among predictors as well as spatial autocorrelation. The contribution of different sources of remotely sensed information to species distribution models was also assessed. The second paper (to be submitted) explores the combined effects of sample size and data post-stratification on the accuracy of models using data on grassland distribution across Switzerland collected within the framework of the Landspot project and supplemented with other important vegetation databases. For the stratification of the data, different spatial frameworks were compared. In particular, environmental stratification by Swiss Environmental Domains was compared to geographical stratification either by biogeographic regions or political states (cantons). The third paper (to be submitted) assesses the contribution of pre- modelled vegetation communities to the modelling of fauna. It is a two-steps approach that combines the disciplines of community ecology and spatial ecology and integrates their corresponding concepts of habitat. First are modelled vegetation communities per se and then these 'habitat' units are used in order to model animal species habitat. A case study is presented with grassland communities and butterfly species. Different ways of integrating vegetation information in the models of butterfly distribution were also evaluated. Finally, a glimpse to climate change is given in the fourth paper, recently published in Ecological Modelling. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. The methodology was developed using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey and the article presents results concerning the observed shifts in the elevational distribution of breeding birds in Switzerland.The overall objective of this thesis is to improve species distribution models as potential inputs for different conservation tools (e.g. red lists, ecological networks, risk assessment of the spread of invasive species, vulnerability assessment in the context of climate change). While no conservation issues or tools are directly tested in this thesis, the importance of the proposed improvements made in species distribution modelling is discussed in the context of the selection of reserve networks.RESUMELes modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) représentent aujourd'hui un outil essentiel dans les domaines de recherche de l'écologie et de la biologie de la conservation. En combinant les observations de la présence des espèces ou de leur abondance avec des informations sur les caractéristiques environnementales des sites d'observation, ces modèles peuvent fournir des informations sur l'écologie des espèces, prédire leur distribution à travers le paysage ou l'extrapoler dans l'espace et le temps. Le déploiement des SDMs, soutenu par les systèmes d'information géographique (SIG), les nouveaux développements dans les modèles statistiques, ainsi que la constante augmentation des capacités de calcul, a révolutionné la façon dont les écologistes peuvent comprendre la distribution des espèces dans leur environnement. Les SDMs ont apporté l'outil qui permet de décrire la niche réalisée des espèces dans un espace environnemental multivarié et prédire leur distribution spatiale. Les prédictions, sous forme de carte probabilistes montrant la distribution potentielle de l'espèce, sont un moyen irremplaçable d'informer chaque unité du territoire de sa biodiversité potentielle. Les SDMs et les prédictions spatiales correspondantes peuvent être utilisés pour planifier des mesures de conservation pour des espèces particulières, pour concevoir des plans d'échantillonnage, pour évaluer les risques liés à la propagation d'espèces envahissantes, pour choisir l'emplacement de réserves et les mettre en réseau, et finalement, pour prévoir les changements de répartition en fonction de scénarios de changement climatique et/ou d'utilisation du sol. En évaluant l'effet de plusieurs facteurs sur la performance des modèles et sur la précision des prédictions spatiales, cette thèse vise à améliorer les techniques et les données disponibles pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces et à fournir la meilleure information possible aux gestionnaires pour appuyer leurs décisions et leurs plans d'action pour la conservation de la biodiversité en Suisse et au-delà. Plusieurs programmes de surveillance ont été mis en place de l'échelle nationale à l'échelle globale, et différentes sources de données sont désormais disponibles pour les chercheurs qui veulent modéliser la distribution des espèces. Toutefois, en raison du manque de moyens, les données sont souvent collectées à une résolution inappropriée, sont échantillonnées sur des zones limitées, ne sont pas spatialement explicites ou ne fournissent pas une information écologique suffisante. Un exemple typique est fourni par les données sur 'l'habitat' (sensu biota). Même s'il s'agit d'une information essentielle pour des mesures de conservation efficaces, elle est souvent approximée par l'utilisation du sol, l'information qui s'en approche le plus. En outre, les données ne sont souvent pas échantillonnées selon un plan d'échantillonnage établi, ce qui biaise les échantillons et par conséquent les résultats de la modélisation. Comprendre les sources de variabilité liées aux différentes phases du processus de modélisation s'avère crucial afin d'évaluer l'utilisation des cartes de distribution prédites à des fins de conservation.La recherche présentée dans cette thèse a été essentiellement menée dans le cadre du projet Landspot, un projet soutenu par le Fond National Suisse pour la Recherche. L'objectif principal de ce projet était d'évaluer la contribution d'unités 'd'habitat' pré-modélisées pour modéliser la répartition des espèces animales, notamment de papillons, à travers la Suisse. Tout en poursuivant cet objectif, différents aspects touchant à la qualité des données, au plan d'échantillonnage et au processus de modélisation sont abordés et améliorés, et leurs implications pour la conservation des espèces discutées. Les principaux 'habitats' considérés dans cette thèse sont des communautés de prairie et de forêt d'origine naturelle et anthropique telles que définies dans la typologie des habitats de Suisse. Ces communautés sont principalement définies au niveau phytosociologique de l'alliance. Pour l'instant aucune carte de la distribution de ces communautés n'est disponible à l'échelle nationale et à résolution fine. Dans un premier temps, il a donc été nécessaire de créer des modèles de distribution de ces communautés à travers la Suisse et par conséquent de recueillir les données nécessaires. Afin d'atteindre ce premier objectif, plusieurs nouveaux développements ont été nécessaires, tels que la définition de modèles experts, la classification du territoire suisse en domaines environnementaux, la conception d'un échantillonnage environnementalement stratifié des unités de végétation cibles dans toute la Suisse, la création d'une base de données intégrant un système d'aide à la décision pour la classification des relevés, et le « downscaling » des données de couverture du sol de 100 m à 25 m de résolution. Les principales contributions de cette thèse à la discipline de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces (SDM) sont rassemblées dans quatre articles scientifiques. Dans le premier article, publié dans le Journal of Biogeography, différentes questions liées au processus de modélisation sont étudiées en utilisant les données de l'inventaire forestier de l'Etat de Vaud. Tout d'abord sont évalués les effets de cinq méthodes de sélection pas-à-pas sur la performance, la stabilité et la parcimonie des modèles. Dans le même article sont également évalués: l'effet de la pondération des absences afin d'assurer une prévalence de 0.5 lors de la calibration du modèle; l'effet de limiter les absences au-delà de l'enveloppe définie par les présences; quatre méthodes différentes pour l'intégration de l'autocorrélation spatiale; et enfin, l'effet de l'intégration d'interactions entre facteurs. Les résultats présentés dans cet article ont permis d'améliorer l'outil GRASP qui intègre désonnais de nouvelles méthodes de sélection et la possibilité de traiter les interactions entre variables explicatives, ainsi que l'autocorrélation spatiale. La contribution de différentes sources de données issues de la télédétection a également été évaluée. Le deuxième article (en voie de soumission) explore les effets combinés de la taille de l'échantillon et de la post-stratification sur le la précision des modèles. Les données utilisées ici sont celles concernant la répartition des prairies de Suisse recueillies dans le cadre du projet Landspot et complétées par d'autres sources. Pour la stratification des données, différents cadres spatiaux ont été comparés. En particulier, la stratification environnementale par les domaines environnementaux de Suisse a été comparée à la stratification géographique par les régions biogéographiques ou par les cantons. Le troisième article (en voie de soumission) évalue la contribution de communautés végétales pré-modélisées à la modélisation de la faune. C'est une approche en deux étapes qui combine les disciplines de l'écologie des communautés et de l'écologie spatiale en intégrant leurs concepts de 'habitat' respectifs. Les communautés végétales sont modélisées d'abord, puis ces unités de 'habitat' sont utilisées pour modéliser les espèces animales. Une étude de cas est présentée avec des communautés prairiales et des espèces de papillons. Différentes façons d'intégrer l'information sur la végétation dans les modèles de répartition des papillons sont évaluées. Enfin, un clin d'oeil aux changements climatiques dans le dernier article, publié dans Ecological Modelling. Cet article propose un cadre conceptuel pour l'analyse des changements dans la distribution des espèces qui comprend notamment un catalogue des différentes formes possibles de changement le long d'un gradient d'élévation ou autre gradient environnemental, et une méthode quantitative améliorée pour identifier et décrire ces déplacements. Cette méthodologie a été développée en utilisant des données issues du monitoring des oiseaux nicheurs répandus et l'article présente les résultats concernant les déplacements observés dans la distribution altitudinale des oiseaux nicheurs en Suisse.L'objectif général de cette thèse est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution des espèces en tant que source d'information possible pour les différents outils de conservation (par exemple, listes rouges, réseaux écologiques, évaluation des risques de propagation d'espèces envahissantes, évaluation de la vulnérabilité des espèces dans le contexte de changement climatique). Bien que ces questions de conservation ne soient pas directement testées dans cette thèse, l'importance des améliorations proposées pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces est discutée à la fin de ce travail dans le contexte de la sélection de réseaux de réserves.

Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests

Altitudinal tree lines are mainly constrained by temperature, but can also be influenced by factors such as human activity, particularly in the European Alps, where centuries of agricultural use have affected the tree-line. Over the last decades this trend has been reversed due to changing agricultural practices and land-abandonment. We aimed to combine a statistical land-abandonment model with a forest dynamics model, to take into account the combined effects of climate and human land-use on the Alpine tree-line in Switzerland. Land-abandonment probability was expressed by a logistic regression function of degree-day sum, distance from forest edge, soil stoniness, slope, proportion of employees in the secondary and tertiary sectors, proportion of commuters and proportion of full-time farms. This was implemented in the TreeMig spatio-temporal forest model. Distance from forest edge and degree-day sum vary through feed-back from the dynamics part of TreeMig and climate change scenarios, while the other variables remain constant for each grid cell over time. The new model, TreeMig-LAb, was tested on theoretical landscapes, where the variables in the land-abandonment model were varied one by one. This confirmed the strong influence of distance from forest and slope on the abandonment probability. Degree-day sum has a more complex role, with opposite influences on land-abandonment and forest growth. TreeMig-LAb was also applied to a case study area in the Upper Engadine (Swiss Alps), along with a model where abandonment probability was a constant. Two scenarios were used: natural succession only (100% probability) and a probability of abandonment based on past transition proportions in that area (2.1% per decade). The former showed new forest growing in all but the highest-altitude locations. The latter was more realistic as to numbers of newly forested cells, but their location was random and the resulting landscape heterogeneous. Using the logistic regression model gave results consistent with observed patterns of land-abandonment: existing forests expanded and gaps closed, leading to an increasingly homogeneous landscape.

Will climate change drive alien invasive plants into areas of high protection value? An improved model-based regional assessment to prioritise the management of invasions.

Species distribution models (SDMs) studies suggest that, without control measures, the distribution of many alien invasive plant species (AIS) will increase under climate and land-use changes. Due to limited resources and large areas colonised by invaders, management and monitoring resources must be prioritised. Choices depend on the conservation value of the invaded areas and can be guided by SDM predictions. Here, we use a hierarchical SDM framework, complemented by connectivity analysis of AIS distributions, to evaluate current and future conflicts between AIS and high conservation value areas. We illustrate the framework with three Australian wattle (Acacia) species and patterns of conservation value in Northern Portugal. Results show that protected areas will likely suffer higher pressure from all three Acacia species under future climatic conditions. Due to this higher predicted conflict in protected areas, management might be prioritised for Acacia dealbata and Acacia melanoxylon. Connectivity of AIS suitable areas inside protected areas is currently lower than across the full study area, but this would change under future environmental conditions. Coupled SDM and connectivity analysis can support resource prioritisation for anticipation and monitoring of AIS impacts. However, further tests of this framework over a wide range of regions and organisms are still required before wide application.

Tree line shifts in the Swiss Alps: Climate change or land abandonment?

Questions: Did the forest area in the Swiss Alps increase between 1985 and 1997? Does the forest expansion near the tree line represent an invasion into abandoned grasslands (ingrowth) or a true upward shift of the local tree line? What land cover / land use classes did primarily regenerate to forest, and what forest structural types did primarily regenerate? And, what are possible drivers of forest regeneration in the tree line ecotone, climate and/or land use change? Location: Swiss Alps. Methods: Forest expansion was quantified using data from the repeated Swiss land use statistics GEOSTAT. A moving window algorithm was developed to distinguish between forest ingrowth and upward shift. To test a possible climate change influence, the resulting upward shifts were compared to a potential regional tree line. Results: A significant increase of forest cover was found between 1650 to and 2450 m. Above 1650 m, 10% of the new forest areas were identified as true upward shifts whereas 90% represented ingrowth, and we identified both land use and climate change as likely drivers. Most upward shift activities were found to occur within a band of 300 m below the potential regional tree line, indicating land use as the most likely driver. Only 4% of the upward shifts were identified to rise above the potential regional tree line, thus indicating climate change. Conclusions: Land abandonment was the most dominant driver for the establishment of new forest areas, even at the tree line ecotone. However, a small fraction of upwards shift can be attributed to the recent climate warming, a fraction that is likely to increase further if climate continues to warm, and with a longer time-span between warming and measurement of forest cover.

Rates and pattern of evolution among Cretaceous radiolarians: relations with global paleoceanographic events

We present a new approach for analyzing the turnover rates of Cretaceous radiolarians recorded in pelagic sequences of western Tethys, The analysis of major extinction-radiation events and the fluctuation of diversity are compared with major paleoceanographic events and variation of diversity in dinoflagellates, calcareous nannoplankton and ammonites. There is an extraordinary correlation between biotic changes and sea level changes, temperatures, O, C and Sr isotopes, phosphorus accumulation rates and anoxic episodes. This reveals a predominantly abiotic control on the evolution of radiolarians. The rate of turnover and the diversity through time of two major orders of radiolarians (nassellarians and spumellarians) exhibits (1) the quasi-parallelism of their diversity curves, excluding a direct competition between them, (2) greater resistance of spumellarians to extinction during the early stage of extinction intervals and (3) a stronger post-extinction recovery of nassellarians. Evolutionary rates of radiolarians can be a good means of monitoring global environmental changes and allowing us to understand more clearly the relationship between plankton evolution, climate and pale oceanographic processes.

Historical Development and Applications of the EPIC and APEX Models, June 2005

The development of the field-scale Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) model was initiated in 1981 to support assessments of soil erosion impacts on soil productivity for soil, climate, and cropping conditions representative of a broad spectrum of U.S. agricultural production regions. The first major application of EPIC was a national analysis performed in support of the 1985 Resources Conservation Act (RCA) assessment. The model has continuously evolved since that time and has been applied for a wide range of field, regional, and national studies both in the U.S. and in other countries. The range of EPIC applications has also expanded greatly over that time, including studies of (1) surface runoff and leaching estimates of nitrogen and phosphorus losses from fertilizer and manure applications, (2) leaching and runoff from simulated pesticide applications, (3) soil erosion losses from wind erosion, (4) climate change impacts on crop yield and erosion, and (5) soil carbon sequestration assessments. The EPIC acronym now stands for Erosion Policy Impact Climate, to reflect the greater diversity of problems to which the model is currently applied. The Agricultural Policy EXtender (APEX) model is essentially a multi-field version of EPIC that was developed in the late 1990s to address environmental problems associated with livestock and other agricultural production systems on a whole-farm or small watershed basis. The APEX model also continues to evolve and to be utilized for a wide variety of environmental assessments. The historical development for both models will be presented, as well as example applications on several different scales.

The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling.

Predicting which species will occur together in the future, and where, remains one of the greatest challenges in ecology, and requires a sound understanding of how the abiotic and biotic environments interact with dispersal processes and history across scales. Biotic interactions and their dynamics influence species' relationships to climate, and this also has important implications for predicting future distributions of species. It is already well accepted that biotic interactions shape species' spatial distributions at local spatial extents, but the role of these interactions beyond local extents (e.g. 10 km(2) to global extents) are usually dismissed as unimportant. In this review we consolidate evidence for how biotic interactions shape species distributions beyond local extents and review methods for integrating biotic interactions into species distribution modelling tools. Drawing upon evidence from contemporary and palaeoecological studies of individual species ranges, functional groups, and species richness patterns, we show that biotic interactions have clearly left their mark on species distributions and realised assemblages of species across all spatial extents. We demonstrate this with examples from within and across trophic groups. A range of species distribution modelling tools is available to quantify species environmental relationships and predict species occurrence, such as: (i) integrating pairwise dependencies, (ii) using integrative predictors, and (iii) hybridising species distribution models (SDMs) with dynamic models. These methods have typically only been applied to interacting pairs of species at a single time, require a priori ecological knowledge about which species interact, and due to data paucity must assume that biotic interactions are constant in space and time. To better inform the future development of these models across spatial scales, we call for accelerated collection of spatially and temporally explicit species data. Ideally, these data should be sampled to reflect variation in the underlying environment across large spatial extents, and at fine spatial resolution. Simplified ecosystems where there are relatively few interacting species and sometimes a wealth of existing ecosystem monitoring data (e.g. arctic, alpine or island habitats) offer settings where the development of modelling tools that account for biotic interactions may be less difficult than elsewhere.

Rehabilitation of Concrete Pavements Utilizing Rebblization and Crack and Seat Methods, June 2005

Deterioration in portland cement concrete (PCC) pavements can occur due to distresses caused by a combination of traffic loads and weather conditions. Hot mix asphalt (HMA) overlay is the most commonly used rehabilitation technique for such deteriorated PCC pavements. However, the performance of these HMA overlaid pavements is hindered due to the occurrence of reflective cracking, resulting in significant reduction of pavement serviceability. Various fractured slab techniques, including rubblization, crack and seat, and break and seat are used to minimize reflective cracking by reducing the slab action. However, the design of structural overlay thickness for cracked and seated and rubblized pavements is difficult as the resulting structure is neither a “true” rigid pavement nor a “true” flexible pavement. Existing design methodologies use the empirical procedures based on the AASHO Road Test conducted in 1961. But, the AASHO Road Test did not employ any fractured slab technique, and there are numerous limitations associated with extrapolating its results to HMA overlay thickness design for fractured PCC pavements. The main objective of this project is to develop a mechanistic-empirical (ME) design approach for the HMA overlay thickness design for fractured PCC pavements. In this design procedure, failure criteria such as the tensile strain at the bottom of HMA layer and the vertical compressive strain on the surface of subgrade are used to consider HMA fatigue and subgrade rutting, respectively. The developed ME design system is also implemented in a Visual Basic computer program. A partial validation of the design method with reference to an instrumented trial project (IA-141, Polk County) in Iowa is provided in this report. Tensile strain values at the bottom of the HMA layer collected from the FWD testing at this project site are in agreement with the results obtained from the developed computer program.

Biotic and abiotic variables show little redundancy in explaining tree species distributions

Abiotic factors such as climate and soil determine the species fundamental niche, which is further constrained by biotic interactions such as interspecific competition. To parameterize this realized niche, species distribution models (SDMs) most often relate species occurrence data to abiotic variables, but few SDM studies include biotic predictors to help explain species distributions. Therefore, most predictions of species distributions under future climates assume implicitly that biotic interactions remain constant or exert only minor influence on large-scale spatial distributions, which is also largely expected for species with high competitive ability. We examined the extent to which variance explained by SDMs can be attributed to abiotic or biotic predictors and how this depends on species traits. We fit generalized linear models for 11 common tree species in Switzerland using three different sets of predictor variables: biotic, abiotic, and the combination of both sets. We used variance partitioning to estimate the proportion of the variance explained by biotic and abiotic predictors, jointly and independently. Inclusion of biotic predictors improved the SDMs substantially. The joint contribution of biotic and abiotic predictors to explained deviance was relatively small (similar to 9%) compared to the contribution of each predictor set individually (similar to 20% each), indicating that the additional information on the realized niche brought by adding other species as predictors was largely independent of the abiotic (topo-climatic) predictors. The influence of biotic predictors was relatively high for species preferably growing under low disturbance and low abiotic stress, species with long seed dispersal distances, species with high shade tolerance as juveniles and adults, and species that occur frequently and are dominant across the landscape. The influence of biotic variables on SDM performance indicates that community composition and other local biotic factors or abiotic processes not included in the abiotic predictors strongly influence prediction of species distributions. Improved prediction of species' potential distributions in future climates and communities may assist strategies for sustainable forest management.

The role of phylogeny in the spatial distributions and assembly of mountain plant communities.

A major challenge in community ecology is a thorough understanding of the processes that govern the assembly and composition of communities in time and space. The growing threat of climate change to the vascular plant biodiversity of fragile ecosystems such as mountains has made it equally imperative to develop comprehensive methodologies to provide insights into how communities are assembled. In this perspective, the primary objective of this PhD thesis is to contribute to the theoretical and methodological development of community ecology, by proposing new solutions to better detect the ecological and evolutionary processes that govern community assembly. As phylogenetic trees provide by far, the most advanced tools to integrate the spatial, ecological and evolutionary dynamics of plant communities, they represent the cornerstone on which this work was based. In this thesis, I proposed new solutions to: (i) reveal trends in community assembly on phylogenies, depicted by the transition of signals at the nodes of the different species and lineages responsible for community assembly, (ii) contribute to evidence the importance of evolutionarily labile traits in the distribution of mountain plant species. More precisely, I demonstrated that phylogenetic and functional compositional turnover in plant communities was driven by climate and human land use gradients mostly influenced by evolutionarily labile traits, (iii) predict and spatially project the phylogenetic structure of communities using species distribution models, to identify the potential distribution of phylogenetic diversity, as well as areas of high evolutionary potential along elevation. The altitudinal setting of the Diablerets mountains (Switzerland) provided an appropriate model for this study. The elevation gradient served as a compression of large latitudinal variations similar to a collection of islands within a single area, and allowed investigations on a large number of plant communities. Overall, this thesis highlights that stochastic and deterministic environmental filtering processes mainly influence the phylogenetic structure of plant communities in mountainous areas. Negative density-dependent processes implied through patterns of phylogenetic overdispersion were only detected at the local scale, whereas environmental filtering implied through phylogenetic clustering was observed at both the regional and local scale. Finally, the integration of indices of phylogenetic community ecology with species distribution models revealed the prospects of providing novel and insightful explanations on the potential distribution of phylogenetic biodiversity in high mountain areas. These results generally demonstrate the usefulness of phylogenies in inferring assembly processes, and are worth considering in the theoretical and methodological development of tools to better understand phylogenetic community structure.