A New Model Of Trend Inflation

This paper introduces a new model of trend (or underlying) inflation. In contrast to many earlier approaches, which allow for trend inflation to evolve according to a random walk, ours is a bounded model which ensures that trend inflation is constrained to lie in an interval. The bounds of this interval can either be fixed or estimated from the data. Our model also allows for a time-varying degree of persistence in the transitory component of inflation. The bounds placed on trend inflation mean that standard econometric methods for estimating linear Gaussian state space models cannot be used and we develop a posterior simulation algorithm for estimating the bounded trend inflation model. In an empirical exercise with CPI inflation we find the model to work well, yielding more sensible measures of trend inflation and forecasting better than popular alternatives such as the unobserved components stochastic volatility model.

Avaluació de variables estàtiques i dinàmiques predictives del risc de reincidència en delinqüents sexuals: estudi d’una mostra dels interns de les presons de Catalunya

Aquest treball presenta un estudi sobre les variables de risc de reincidència d’un grup de 315 delinqüents sexuals. Els subjectes han estat obtinguts del total d’interns que van sortir en llibertat condicional o definitiva de les presons de Catalunya entre 1998 i 2003. La investigació té dues parts. Una primera quantitativa on s’analitza la capacitat predictiva de 18 variables representatives de la carrera delictiva, l’incompliment de les mesures de supervisió a la comunitat, la conflictivitat a la presó, el tractament i les condicions de la condemna. Durant un període de seguiment que va de tres anys i 10 mesos a nou anys i dos mesos s’ha enregistrat la reincidència en delictes sexuals, delictes violents, qualsevol tipus de delicte violent (tant sexual com no sexual) i reincidència general. A la segona part, qualitativa, s’han fet entrevistes semiestructurades a un grup de 14 delinqüents sexuals dels quals nou havien reincidit i cinc estaven en llibertat condicional. Si bé les variables més comunes a la investigació sobre delinqüència general han mostrat relació amb la reincidència general, només tres variables de la carrera delictiva han mostrat relació amb la reincidència sexual. L’estudi qualitatiu ha permès obtenir informació sobre la influència de les variables dinàmiques més importants. A partir de l’anàlisi del procés del delicte es configuren tres perfils de delinqüents sexuals que ja s’havien trobat a altres investigacions. A partir de la informació obtinguda es proposen algunes orientacions pels programes de tractament.

Spondylarthropathies in children--are they different from those in adults?

Juvenile spondylarthropathies (JSpAs) comprise a group of rheumatic diseases distinct from other categories of juvenile arthritis. Several classification systems have been applied, and some are specific for children, such as the seronegative enthesopathy and arthropathy (SEA) syndrome and the enthesitis-related arthritis, diagnostic forms in the International League of Associations for Rheumatism (ILAR) classification. JSpA seems more frequent than was previously believed, but actual epidemiological data show important variations between studies. Compared to adult patients, children with JSpA present with peripheral arthritis and enthesitis early in disease but sacroiliac and spine joints involvement many years later. A multidisciplinary team in a paediatric environment should be responsible for the management of children with spondylarthropathies to ensure the best care for these children with their chronic disease and risk of long-term disability. Recent advances in the treatment of rheumatic diseases with biological agents show promising results in children with JSpA. Further research needs to be conducted to increase our knowledge of the long-term outcome of these patients, to improve management, and to prevent long-term consequences of the disease.

Systematics and Population Level Analysis of Anopheles darlingi

A new phylogenetic analysis of the Nyssorhynchus subgenus (Danoff-Burg and Conn, unpub. data) using six data sets {morphological (all life stages); scanning electron micrographs of eggs; nuclear ITS2 sequences; mitochondrial COII, ND2 and ND6 sequences} revealed different topologies when each data set was analyzed separately but no heterogeneity between the data sets using the arn test. Consequently, the most accurate estimate of the phylogeny was obtained when all the data were combined. This new phylogeny supports a monophyletic Nyssorhynchus subgenus but both previously recognized sections in the subgenus (Albimanus and Argyritarsis) were demonstrated to be paraphyletic relative to each other and four of the seven clades included species previously placed in both sections. One of these clades includes both Anopheles darlingi and An. albimanus, suggesting that the ability to vector malaria effectively may have originated once in this subgenus. Both a conserved (315 bp) and a variable (425 bp) region of the mitochondrial COI gene from 15 populations of An. darlingi from Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, French Guiana, Peru and Venezuela were used to examine the evolutionary history of this species and to test several analytical assumptions. Results demonstrated (1) parsimony analysis is equally informative compared to distance analysis using NJ; (2) clades or clusters are more strongly supported when these two regions are combined compared to either region separately; (3) evidence (in the form of remnants of older haplotype lineages) for two colonization events; and (4) significant genetic divergence within the population from Peixoto de Azevedo (State of Mato Grosso, Brazil). The oldest lineage includes populations from Peixoto, Boa Vista (State of Roraima) and Dourado (State of São Paulo).

Apport du bleu de toluidine en cancérologie bucco-pharyngo-oesophagienne [Contribution of Toluidine blue to bucco-pharyngo-oesophageal cancerology]

En muqueuse malpighienne lisse, le Bleu de Toluidine présente un intérêt diagnostic considérable, non seulement lors de l'endoscopie, mais lors de la chirurgie d'exérèse des carcinomes intra-épithéliaux et micro-invasifs de la voie digestive supérieure (bouche, pharynx, oesophage). L'utilisation systématique de ce colorant vital nous a permis le diagnostic et l'étude morphologique endoscopique de 18 carcinomes « précoces » de l'oesophage (9 in situ, 3 dysplasies sévères, 1 microinvasif, 5 limités à la sous-muqueuse). La multicentricité et la multifocalité de ces lésions est fréquente (80 à 90 % des cas), ce qui impose leur exérèse chirurgicale sous Bleu de Toluidine, afin de détecter les foyers de carcinome in situ à distance de la lésion primaire. La connaissance exacte des faux positifs et négatifs permet de limiter les erreurs d'interprétation lors de la coloration.

Collaboration entre cliniciens et chercheurs autour de la «consultation systémique» : une situation de violence intrafamiliale

Cet article vise à illustrer la collaboration et l'enrichissement mutuel qu'apportent aux chercheurs et aux cliniciens l'utilisation de la «consultation systémique». Cette dernière, demandée soit spontanément par les parents, soit par le(s) thérapeute(s) qui suive(nt) la famille, a pour but l'évaluation des interactions familiales. Lors d'une première rencontre, les questions qui motivent les parents et/ou thérapeute(s) à consulter sont formulées et la famille est invitée à faire des jeux familiaux semi-standardisés qui sont filmés. Lors d'une deuxième rencontre réunissant les mêmes personnes, un visionnement d'extraits des films sert de base à une discussion ainsi qu'à l'élaboration de réponses aux questions posées, en partant des observations des chercheurs. Après une description de la consultation systémique standard (principes, objectifs, procédure et situations d'observation), une vignette clinique atypique, concernant des violences intrafamiliales, illustrera la variété et la richesse de ces consultations. Les observations micro et macro-analytiques des interactions données par les chercheurs, auxquelles s'ajoute la compréhension clinique des thérapeutes, montrent qu'une collaboration entre eux est fructueuse pour toutes les parties concernées.

CoLaus: diabète et dyslipidémie, il y a toujours du nouveau ! [CoLaus: diabetes and dyslipidemia, there is always something to new !].

Résumé : Les maladies cardiovasculaires restent la première cause de mortalité dans notre pays. Elles sont associées à des facteurs de risque (FRCV) bien connus comme le diabète ou la dyslipidémie. Nous résumons ici les principaux résultats de l'étude CoLaus concernant d'une part la prévalence du diabète et de la dyslipidémie et certaines caractéristiques de leur prise en charge.Les découvertes récentes concernant de nouveaux déterminants génétiques impliqués dans ces FRCV sont présentées de manière succincte. La contribution de ces données génétiques est également discutée dans une perspective de prise en charge clinique.[Abstract] Cardiovascular diseases remain the first cause of mortality in our country. They are associated with well known risk factors such as diabetes and dyslipidemia. Herein we summarize main results of the CoLaus study regarding, first the prevalence and characteristics of the treatment of these risk factors.Then we present recent discoveries of new genetic determinants associated with these risk factors. Finally, we discuss whether this knowledge changes our current clinical management of our patients.

Le Groupe Prévention et Traitement des Plaies des Hospices-CHUV [The Hospices-CHUV's Wound Prevention and Treatment Group]

The treatment of wounds is a challenge that caregivers of all specialities encounter daily in the care of an ageing population and chronically ill patients. An interdisciplinary group has been created in recent years within the Hospices-CHUV to assist caregivers in their care of patients with wounds. This group has developed a variety of tools to assist decision-making and offers a range of continuing education for those employees involved in wound care. The authors describe the approach of the group and the documents produced during the first two years of experience.

Blood parasites in some birds from eastern plains of Colombia

A total of 315 birds representing 75 species (23 families) from Villavicencio and San Miguel (Meta, Colombia) were examined for haematozoa. Fifty birds (15.9%) harbored blood parasites. Microfilariae were the most common haematozoans encountered, followed by species of the genera Haemoproteus, Plasmodium and Trypanosoma. This survey included 15 new host-parasite records and 8 species of birds that were examined for haematozoa for the first time. The prevalence registered in this research was similar to others recorded in the Neotropical region, but in sharp contrast with the prevalence of blood parasites in other major land masses.

The InterPro Database, 2003 brings increased coverage and new features.

InterPro, an integrated documentation resource of protein families, domains and functional sites, was created in 1999 as a means of amalgamating the major protein signature databases into one comprehensive resource. PROSITE, Pfam, PRINTS, ProDom, SMART and TIGRFAMs have been manually integrated and curated and are available in InterPro for text- and sequence-based searching. The results are provided in a single format that rationalises the results that would be obtained by searching the member databases individually. The latest release of InterPro contains 5629 entries describing 4280 families, 1239 domains, 95 repeats and 15 post-translational modifications. Currently, the combined signatures in InterPro cover more than 74% of all proteins in SWISS-PROT and TrEMBL, an increase of nearly 15% since the inception of InterPro. New features of the database include improved searching capabilities and enhanced graphical user interfaces for visualisation of the data. The database is available via a webserver (http://www.ebi.ac.uk/interpro) and anonymous FTP (ftp://ftp.ebi.ac.uk/pub/databases/interpro).

Role of the sub-cellular localization of RasGAP fragment N2 for its ability to sensitize cancer cells to genotoxin-induced apoptosis.

The specific sensitization of tumor cells to the apoptotic response induced by genotoxins is a promising way of increasing the efficacy of chemotherapies. The RasGAP-derived fragment N2, while not regulating apoptosis in normal cells, potently sensitizes tumor cells to cisplatin- and other genotoxin-induced cell death. Here we show that fragment N2 in living cells is mainly located in the cytoplasm and only minimally associated with specific organelles. The cytoplasmic localization of fragment N2 was required for its cisplatin-sensitization property because targeting it to the mitochondria or the ER abrogated its ability to increase the death of tumor cells in response to cisplatin. These results indicate that fragment N2 requires a spatially constrained cellular location to exert its anti-cancer activity.

Prevalencia e implicaciones clínicas de la repolarización precoz en deportistas de alto nivel de entrenamiento

Objectiu: Analitzar la prevalença inicial i en el seguiment de la repolarització precoç en esportistes d´alt nivell d´entrenament. Material y mètodes: Anàlisis retrospectiu i actual d´ECGs i històries clíniques d´una mostra de 315 esportistes Resultats: La prevalença inicial de la repolarització precoç va ser 32,3% ( IC del 95% de 27-37,6%), reduint-se significativament al 20,3 % ( IC del 95% de 16,9-26,3%) en el seguiment. La incidència d´events cardiovasculars va ser baixa. Conclusions: La prevalença de la repolarització precoç en esportistes entrenats disminueix significativament després de deixar la pràctica esportiva

CoLaus: diabète et dyslipidémie, il y a toujours du nouveau [CoLaus: diabetes and dyslipidemia, there is always something new!].

Cardiovascular diseases remain the first cause of mortality in our country. They are associated with well known risk factors such as diabetes and dyslipidemia. Herein we summarize main results of the CoLaus study regarding, first the prevalence and characteristics of the treatment of these risk factors. Then we present recent discoveries of new genetic determinants associated with these risk factors. Finally, we discuss whether this knowledge changes our current clinical management of our patients.

Alzheimer's Disease Biomarkers, 2009

This report gives a comprehensive and up-to-date review of Alzheimer's disease biomarkers. Recent years have seen significant advances in this field. Whilst considerable effort has focused on A�_ and tau related markers, a substantial number of other molecules have been identified, that may offer new opportunities.This Report : Identifies 60 candidate Alzheimer's (AD) biomarkers and their associated studies. Of these, 49 are single species or single parameters, 7 are combinations or panels and 4 involve the measurement of two species or parameters or their ratios. These include proteins (n=34), genes (n=11), image-based parameters (n=7), small molecules (n=3), proteins + genes (n=2) and others (n=3). Of these, 30 (50%) relate to species identified in CSF and 19 (32%) were found in the blood. These candidate may be classified on the basis of their diagnostic utility, namely those which i) may allow AD to be detected when the disease has developed (48 of 75†= 64%), ii) may allow early detection of AD (18 of 75† = 24%) and iii) may allow AD to be predicted before the disease has begun to develop (9 of 75†= 12%). † Note: Of these, 11 were linked to two or more of these capabilities (e.g. allowed both early-stage detection as well as diagnosis after the disease has developed).Biomarkers: AD biomarkers identified in this report show significant diversity, however of the 60 described, 18 (30%) are associated with amyloid beta (A�_) and 9 (15%) relate to Tau. The remainder of the biomarkers (just over half) fall into a number of different groups. Of these, some are associated with other hypotheses on the pathogenesis of AD however the vast majority are individually unique and not obviously linked with other markers. Analysis and discussion presented in this report includes summaries of the studies and clinical trials that have lead to the identification of these markers. Where it has been calculated, diagnostic sensitivity, specificity and the capacity of these markers to differentiate patients with suspected AD from healthy controls and individuals believed to be suffering from other neurodegenerative conditions, have been indicated. These findings are discussed in relation to existing hypotheses on the pathogenesis of the AD and the current drug development pipeline. Many uncertainties remain in relation to the pathogenesis of AD, in diagnosing and treating the disease and many of the studies carried out to identify disease markers are at an early stage and will require confirmation through larger and longer investigations. Nevertheless, significant advances in the identification of AD biomarkers have now been made. Moreover, whilst much of the research on AD biomarkers has focused on amyloid and tau related species, it is evident that a substantial number of other species may provide important opportunities.Purpose of Report: To provide a comprehensive review of important and recently discovered candidate biomarkers of AD, in particular those with potential to reliably detect the disease or with utility in clinical development, drug repurposing, in studies of the pathogenesis and in monitoring drug response and the course of the disease. Other key goals were to identify markers that support current pipeline developments, indicate new potential drug targets or which advance understanding of the pathogenesis of this disease.Drug Repurposing: Studies of the pathogenesis of AD have identified aberrant changes in a number of other disease areas including inflammation, diabetes, oxidative stress, lipid metabolism and others. These findings have prompted studies to evaluate some existing approved drugs to treat AD. This report identifies studies of 9 established drug classes currently being investigated for potential repurposing.Alzheimer’s Disease: In 2005, the global prevalence of dementia was estimated at 25 million, with more than 4 million new cases occurring each year. It is also calculated that the number of people affected will double every 20 years, to 80 million by 2040, if a cure is not found. More than 50% of dementia cases are due to AD. Today, approximately 5 million individuals in the US suffer from AD, representing one in eight people over the age of 65. Direct and indirect costs of AD and other forms of dementia in the US are around $150 billion annually. Worldwide, costs for dementia care are estimated at $315 billion annually. Despite significant research into this debilitating and ultimately fatal disease, advances in the development of diagnostic tests for AD and moreover, effective treatments, remain elusive.Background: Alzheimer's disease is the most common cause of dementia, yet its clinical diagnosis remains uncertain until an eventual post-mortem histopathology examination is carried out. Currently, therapy for patients with Alzheimer disease only treats the symptoms; however, it is anticipated that new disease-modifying drugs will soon become available. The urgency for new and effective treatments for AD is matched by the need for new tests to detect and diagnose the condition. Uncertainties in the diagnosis of AD mean that the disease is often undiagnosed and under treated. Moreover, it is clear that clinical confirmation of AD, using cognitive tests, can only be made after substantial neuronal cell loss has occurred; a process that may have taken place over many years. Poor response to current therapies may therefore, in part, reflect the fact that such treatments are generally commenced only after neuronal damage has occurred. The absence of tests to detect or diagnose presymptomatic AD also means that there is no standard that can be applied to validate experimental findings (e.g. in drug discovery) without performing lengthy studies, and eventual confirmation by autopsy.These limitations are focusing considerable effort on the identification of biomarkers that advance understanding of the pathogenesis of AD and how the disease can be diagnosed in its early stages and treated. It is hoped that developments in these areas will help physicians to detect AD and guide therapy before the first signs of neuronal damage appears. The last 5-10 years have seen substantial research into the pathogenesis of AD and this has lead to the identification of a substantial number of AD biomarkers, which offer important insights into this disease. This report brings together the latest advances in the identification of AD biomarkers and analyses the opportunities they offer in drug R&D and diagnostics.��