The potential inefficiency of using marketing margins in applied commodity price analysis, forecasting and risk management

This paper examines the implications of using marketing margins in applied commodity price analysis. The marketing-margin concept has a long and distinguished history, but it has caused considerable controversy. This is particularly the case in the context of analyzing the distribution of research gains in multi-stage production systems. We derive optimal tax schemes for raising revenues to finance research and promotion in a downstream market, derive the rules for efficient allocation of the funds, and compare the rules with an without the marketing-margin assumption. Applying the methodology to quarterly time series on the Australian beef-cattle sector and, with several caveats, we conclude that, during the period 1978:2 - 1988:4, the Australian Meat and Livestock Corporation optimally allocated research resources.

Collateral, default penalties and almost finite-time solvency

We argue that it is possible to adapt the approach of imposing restrictions on available plans through finitely effective debt constraints, introduced by Levine and Zame (1996), to encompass models with default and collateral. Along this line, we introduce in the setting of Araujo, Páscoa and Torres-Martínez (2002) and Páscoa and Seghir (2008) the concept of almost finite-time solvency. We show that the conditions imposed in these two papers to rule out Ponzi schemes implicitly restrict actions to be almost finite-time solvent. We define the notion of equilibrium with almost finite-time solvency and look on sufficient conditions for its existence. Assuming a mild assumption on default penalties, namely that agents are myopic with respect to default penalties, we prove that existence is guaranteed (and Ponzi schemes are ruled out) when actions are restricted to be almost finite-time solvent. The proof is very simple and intuitive. In particular, the main existence results in Araujo et al. (2002) and Páscoa and Seghir (2008) are simple corollaries of our existence result.

Endogenous debt constraints in collateralized economies with default penalties

In infinite horizon financial markets economies, competitive equilibria fail to exist if one does not impose restrictions on agents' trades that rule out Ponzi schemes. When there is limited commitment and collateral repossession is the unique default punishment, Araujo, Páscoa and Torres-Martínez (2002) proved that Ponzi schemes are ruled out without imposing any exogenous/endogenous debt constraints on agents' trades. Recently Páscoa and Seghir (2009) have shown that this positive result is not robust to the presence of additional default punishments. They provide several examples showing that, in the absence of debt constraints, harsh default penalties may induce agents to run Ponzi schemes that jeopardize equilibrium existence. The objective of this paper is to close a theoretical gap in the literature by identifying endogenous borrowing constraints that rule out Ponzi schemes and ensure existence of equilibria in a model with limited commitment and (possible) default. We appropriately modify the definition of finitely effective debt constraints, introduced by Levine and Zame (1996) (see also Levine and Zame (2002)), to encompass models with limited commitment, default penalties and collateral. Along this line, we introduce in the setting of Araujo, Páscoa and Torres-Martínez (2002), Kubler and Schmedders (2003) and Páscoa and Seghir (2009) the concept of actions with finite equivalent payoffs. We show that, independently of the level of default penalties, restricting plans to have finite equivalent payoffs rules out Ponzi schemes and guarantees the existence of an equilibrium that is compatible with the minimal ability to borrow and lend that we expect in our model. An interesting feature of our debt constraints is that they give rise to budget sets that coincide with the standard budget sets of economies having a collateral structure but no penalties (as defined in Araujo, Páscoa and Torres-Martínez (2002)). This illustrates the hidden relation between finitely effective debt constraints and collateral requirements.

Estudos éticos em representação do conhecimento: uma análise da questão feminina em linguagens documentais brasileiras

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Literatura e debate pós-colonial em A história do bando de Kelly, de Peter Carey

Pós-graduação em Letras - IBILCE

Phylogenetic relationships of rock-wallabies, Petrogale (Marsupialia: Macropodidae) and their biogeographic history within Australia

The rock-wallaby genus Petrogale comprises a group of habitat-specialist macropodids endemic to Australia. Their restriction to rocky outcrops, with infrequent interpopulation dispersal, has been suggested as the cause of their recent and rapid diversification. Molecular phylogenetic relationships within and among species of Petrogale were analysed using mitochondrial (cytochrome oxidase c subunit 1, cytochrome b. NADH dehydrogenase subunit 2) and nuclear (omega-globin intron, breast and ovarian cancer susceptibility gene) sequence data with representatives that encompassed the morphological and chromosomal variation within the genus, including for the first time both Petrogale concinna and Petrogale purpureicollis. Four distinct lineages were identified, (1) the brachyotis group, (2) Petrogale persephone, (3) Petrogale xanthopus and (4) the lateralis-penicillata group. Three of these lineages include taxa with the ancestral karyotype (2n = 22). Paraphyletic relationships within the brachyotis group indicate the need for a focused phylogeographic study. There was support for P. purpureicollis being reinstated as a full species and P. concinna being placed within Petrogale rather than in the monotypic genus Peradorcas. Bayesian analyses of divergence times suggest that episodes of diversification commenced in the late Miocene-Pliocene and continued throughout the Pleistocene. Ancestral state reconstructions suggest that Petrogale originated in a mesic environment and dispersed into more arid environments, events that correlate with the timing of radiations in other arid zone vertebrate taxa across Australia. Crown Copyright (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Agricultural commodities pricing model applied to the Brazilian sugar market

This article suggests a pricing model for commodities used to produce biofuel. The model is based on the concept that the deterministic component of the Wiener process is not constant and depends on time and exogenous variables. The model, which incorporates theory of storage, the convenience yield and the seasonality of harvests, was applied in the Brazilian sugar market. After predictions were made with the Kalman filter, the model produced results that were statistically more accurate than those returned by the two-factor model available in the literature.

Genetic structure and connectivity between populations of two common Mediterranean sessile invertebrates

Population genetic and phylogeography of two common mediterranean species were studied in 10 localities located on the coasts of Toscana, Puglia and Calabria. The aim of the study was to verify the extent of genetic breaks, in areas recognized as boundaries between Mediterranean biogeographic sectors. From about 100 sequences obtained from the mitochondrial Cytochrome Oxidase subunit I (COI) gene of Halocynthia papillosa and Hexaplex trunculus genetic diversity, genetic structure at small and large distances and demographic history of both specieswere analyzed. No evidences of genetic breaks were found for the two species in Toscana and Puglia. The genetic structure of H. trunculus evidences the extent of a barrier to gene flow localized in Calabria, which could be represented by the Siculo-Tunisian Strait and the Strait of Messina. The observed patterns showed similar level of gene flow at small distances in both species, although the two species have different larval ecology. These results suggest that other factors, such as currents, local dynamics and seasonal temperatures, influence the connectivity along the Italian peninsula. The geographic distribution of the haplotypes shows that H. papillosacould represent a single genetic pool in expansion, whereas H. trunculus has two distinct genetic pools in expansion. The demographic pattern of the two species suggests that Pleistocene sea level oscillations, in particular of the LGM, may have played a key role in shaping genetic structure of the two species. This knowledge provides basic information, useful for the definition of management plans, or for the design of a network of marine protected areas along the Italian peninsula.

Communication about standard treatment options and clinical trials: can we teach doctors new skills to improve patient outcomes?

BACKGROUND: The International Breast Cancer Study Group conducted a phase III trial in Australian/New Zealand (ANZ) and Swiss/German/Austrian (SGA) centres on training doctors in clear and ethical information delivery about treatment options and strategies to encourage shared decision making. METHODS: Medical, surgical, gynaecological and radiation oncologists, and their patients for whom adjuvant breast cancer therapy was indicated, were eligible. Doctors were randomised to participate in a workshop with standardised teaching material and role playing. Patients were recruited in the experimental and control groups before and after the workshop. RESULTS: In ANZ centres, 21 eligible doctors recruited a total of 304 assessable patients. In SGA centres, 41 doctors recruited 390 patients. The training was well accepted. There was no overall effect on patient decisional conflict (primary endpoint) 2 weeks after the consultation. Overall, patients were satisfied with their treatment decision, their consultation and their doctors' consultation skills. Considerable variation was observed in patient outcomes between SGA and ANZ centres; the effect sizes of the intervention were marginal (<0.2). CONCLUSIONS: Shared decision making remains a challenge. A sustained training effect may require more intensive training tailored to the local setting. Cross-cultural differences need attention in conducting trials on communication interventions.

The role of subpolar deep water formation and Nordic Seas overflows in simulated multidecadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

We investigate the respective role of variations in subpolar deep water formation and Nordic Seas overflows for the decadal to multidecadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). This is partly done by analysing long (order of 1000 years) control simulations with five coupled climate models. For all models, the maximum influence of variations in subpolar deep water formation is found at about 45° N, while the maximum influence of variations in Nordic Seas overflows is rather found at 55 to 60° N. Regarding the two overflow branches, the influence of variations in the Denmark Strait overflow is, for all models, substantially larger than that of variations in the overflow across the Iceland–Scotland Ridge. The latter might, however, be underestimated, as the models in general do not realistically simulate the flow path of the Iceland–Scotland overflow water south of the Iceland–Scotland Ridge. The influence of variations in subpolar deep water formation is, on multimodel average, larger than that of variations in the Denmark Strait overflow. This is true both at 45° N, where the maximum standard deviation of decadal to multidecadal AMOC variability is located for all but one model, and at the more classical latitude of 30° N. At 30° N, variations in subpolar deep water formation and Denmark Strait overflow explain, on multimodel average, about half and one-third respectively of the decadal to multidecadal AMOC variance. Apart from analysing multimodel control simulations, we have performed sensitivity experiments with one of the models, in which we suppress the variability of either subpolar deep water formation or Nordic Seas overflows. The sensitivity experiments indicate that variations in subpolar deep water formation and Nordic Seas overflows are not completely independent. We further conclude from these experiments that the decadal to multidecadal AMOC variability north of about 50° N is mainly related to variations in Nordic Seas overflows. At 45° N and south of this latitude, variations in both subpolar deep water formation and Nordic Seas overflows contribute to the AMOC variability, with neither of the processes being very dominant compared to the other.

Strategy and Action Plan for Sustainable Land Management in the High Pamir and Pamir-Alai Mountains

This Strategy and Action Plan was written within the framework of the project on Sustainable Land Management in the High Pamir and Pamir-Alai Mountains (PALM). PALM is an integrated transboundary initiative of the governments of the Kyrgyz Republic and the Republic of Tajikistan. It aims to address the interlinked problems of land degradation and poverty within a region that is one of Central Asia’s crucial sources of freshwater and a location of biodiversity hotspots. The project is executed by the Committee on Environment Protection in Tajikistan and the National Center for Mountain Regions Development in Kyrgyzstan, with fi nancial support from the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and other donors. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is the GEF Implementing Agency for the project, and the United Nations University (UNU) is the International Executing Agency. This Strategy and Action Plan integrates the work of three main teams of experts, namely the Pamir-Alai Transboundary Strategy and Action Plan (PATSAP) team, the Legal Task Forces, and a team of Natural Disaster Risk specialists. The PATSAP team was coordinated by the Centre for Development and Environment (CDE), University of Bern, Switzerland. The Legal Task Force was led by the Australian Centre for Agriculture and Law of the University of New England (UNE), and responsibility for the Natural Disaster Risk assessment was with the Central- Asian Institute of Applied Geosciences (CAIAG) in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. The development of the strategy took place from June 2009 to October 2010. The activities included fi eld study tours for updating the information base with fi rst-hand information from the local level, coordination meetings with actors from the region, and two multi-level stakeholder forums conducted in Khorog and Osh to identify priorities and to collect ideas for concrete action plans. The baseline information collected for the Strategy and Action Plan has been compiled by the experts and made available as reports1. A joint multi-level stakeholder forum was conducted in Jirgitol, Tajikistan, for in-depth discussion of the transboundary aspects. In August 2010, the draft Strategy and Action Plan was distributed among local, national, and international actors for consultation, and their comments were discussed at feedback forums in Khorog and Bishkek. This Strategy and Action Plan is intended as a recommendation. Nevertheless, it proposes concrete mechanisms for implementing the proposed sustainable land management (SLM) activities: The Regional Natural Resources Governance Framework provides the legal and policy concepts, principles, and regulatory requirements needed to create an enabling environment for SLM in the High Pamir and Pamir-Alai region at the transboundary, national, and local levels. The priority directions outlined provide a framework for the elaboration of rayon-level strategies and for strategies on specifi c topics (forestry, livestock, etc.), as well as for further development of government programmes and international projects. The action plans may serve as a pool of concrete ideas, which can be taken up by diff erent institutions and in smaller or larger projects. Finally, this document provides a basis for the elaboration and signing of targeted cooperation agreements on land use and management between the leaders of Osh oblast (Kyrgyz Republic), Gorno Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast, and Jirgitol rayon (Republic of Tajikistan).

Clay mineralogy and multi-element chemistry of surface sediments on the Aiberian-Arctic Shelf

Clay mineral and bulk chemical (Si, Al, K, Mg, Sr, La, Ce, Nd) analyses of terrigenous surface sediments on the Siberian-Arctic shelf indicate that there are five regions with distinct, or endmember, sedimentary compositions. The formation of these geochemical endmembers is controlled by sediment provenance and grain size sorting. (1) The shale endmember (Al, K and REE rich sediment) is eroded from fine-grained marine sedimentary rocks of the Verkhoyansk Mountains and Kolyma-Omolon superterrain, and discharged to the shelf by the Lena, Yana, Indigirka and Kolyma Rivers. (2) The basalt endmember (Mg rich) originates from NE Siberia's Okhotsk-Chukotsk volcanic belt and Bering Strait inflow, and is prevalent in Chukchi Sea Sediments. Concentrations of the volcanically derived clay mineral smectite are elevated in Chukchi fine-fraction sediments, corroborating the conclusion that Chukchi sediments are volcanic in origin. (3) The mature sandstone endmember (Si rich) is found proximal to Wrangel Island and sections of the Chukchi Sea's Siberian coast and is derived from the sedimentary Chukotka terrain that comprises these landmasses. (4) The immature sandstone endmember (Sr rich) is abundant in the New Siberian Island region and reflects inputs from sedimentary rocks that comprise the islands. (5) The immature sandstone endmember is also prevalent in the western Laptev Sea, where it is eroded from sedimentary deposits blanketing the Siberian platform that are compositionally similar to those on the New Siberian Islands. Western Laptev can be distinguished from New Siberian Island region sediments by their comparatively elevated smectite concentrations and the presence of the basalt endmember, which indicate Siberian platform flood basalts are also a source of western Laptev sediments. In certain locations grain size sorting noticeably affects shelf sediment chemistry. (1) Erosion of fines by currents and sediment ice rafting contributes to the formation of the coarse-grained sandstone endmembers. (2) Bathymetrically controlled grain size sorting, in which fines preferentially accumulate offshore in deeper, less energetic water, helps distribute the fine-grained shale and basalt endmembers. An important implication of these results is that the observed sedimentary geochemical endmembers provide new markers of sediment provenance, which can be used to track sediment transport, ice-rafted debris dispersal or the movement of particle-reactive contaminants.