The feasibility of forecasting influenza epidemics in Cuba

A large influenza epidemic took place in Havana during the winter of 1988. The epidemiologic surveillance unit of the Pedro Kouri Institute of Tropical Medicine detected the begining of the epidemic wave. The Rvachev-Baroyan mathematical model of the geographic spread of an epidemic was used to forecast this epidemic under routine conditions of the public health system. The expected number of individuals who would attend outpatient services, because of influenza-like illness, was calculated and communicated to the health authorities within enough time to permit the introduction of available control measures. The approximate date of the epidemic peak, the daily expected number of individuals attending medical services, and the approximate time of the end of the epidemic wave were estimated. The prediction error was 12%. The model was sufficienty accurate to warrant its use as a pratical forecasting tool in the Cuban public health system.

Jaume Brossa (1868-1919) regeneracionista i revolucionari

Treball de recerca realitzat per una alumna d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit científic del Jovent l'any 2009. El present treball és un estudi de la personalitat humana, literària i filosòfica de Jaume Brossa així com un anàlisi del medi sociohistòric que li va tocar viure. El mètode utilitzat ha estat, en primer lloc, un rastreig de material original, articles publicats entre els anys 1892 i 1902 en diversos òrgans de premsa de Barcelona i Madrid. Una vegada obtingut el material requerit, s’ha sondejat per dins de les seves línies fins a trobar quin era el seu pensament en molts aspectes, a saber: el seu posicionament entorn els grans centres d’atenció del seu temps: el nacionalisme, el moviment obrer, l’estètica modernista en les seves parcel•les de música, literatura, teatre etc., tots aquests camps, tractats des de la base de la seva actitud regeneracionista i revolucionària. L’estudi s’ha realitzat des d’un enfocament crític: intentar esbrinar quines han estat les causes per les quals un autor certament notable de les nostres lletres ha estat marginat o, si més no, minimitzat en el seu abast intel•lectual. I, tal com es planteja al començament del treball, aquest consta d’una recerca de causes, implicacions, contextos etc. que ens permetin esbrinar per què Jaume Brossa ha estat desacreditat.

Les premiers lecteurs de Walras en Russie (1890-1919)

Cet article offre la première chronologie des lecteurs de Walras en Russie, entre 1890 et 1919. Ce panorama de la pensée économique russe est le résultat de recherches originales effectuées dans des bibliothèques en Russie, ainsi que quelques fonds d'archives. La plupart de ces informations sont en soi inédites. Elles ne constituent toutefois que des matériaux pour de subséquentes recherches, qui sont esquissées dans le commentaire final de cet article.

El teatre a les societats particulars de Barcelona durant els anys de la Primera Guerra Mundial (1914-1918). El CADCI i l’Ateneu Obrer del districte II

Aquest treball és una primera aproximació al magmàtic món del teatre societari barceloní de principis de segle XX. Vol ser una radiografia, primer, en forma d’estat de la qüestió general, i després, en forma d’anàlisi de dos casos concrets, el CADCI i l’Ateneu Obrer del districte II, de tots els aspectes que engloba el fet teatral en aquests espais: des dels repertoris al funcionament de les companyies, passant per la recepció, el paper del públic o la importància del teatre com a eina política i de transmissió generacional del coneixement. Tot això en el context d’uns anys de crisi del món teatral, en general, i del teatre català, en particular.

The use of classification and regression trees to predict the likelihood of seasonal influenza.

Background Individual signs and symptoms are of limited value for the diagnosis of influenza. Objective To develop a decision tree for the diagnosis of influenza based on a classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. Methods Data from two previous similar cohort studies were assembled into a single dataset. The data were randomly divided into a development set (70%) and a validation set (30%). We used CART analysis to develop three models that maximize the number of patients who do not require diagnostic testing prior to treatment decisions. The validation set was used to evaluate overfitting of the model to the training set. Results Model 1 has seven terminal nodes based on temperature, the onset of symptoms and the presence of chills, cough and myalgia. Model 2 was a simpler tree with only two splits based on temperature and the presence of chills. Model 3 was developed with temperature as a dichotomous variable (≥38°C) and had only two splits based on the presence of fever and myalgia. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCC) for the development and validation sets, respectively, were 0.82 and 0.80 for Model 1, 0.75 and 0.76 for Model 2 and 0.76 and 0.77 for Model 3. Model 2 classified 67% of patients in the validation group into a high- or low-risk group compared with only 38% for Model 1 and 54% for Model 3. Conclusions A simple decision tree (Model 2) classified two-thirds of patients as low or high risk and had an AUROCC of 0.76. After further validation in an independent population, this CART model could support clinical decision making regarding influenza, with low-risk patients requiring no further evaluation for influenza and high-risk patients being candidates for empiric symptomatic or drug therapy.

Characterization of the hemagglutinin receptor specificity and neuraminidase substrate specificity of clinical isolates of human influenza A viruses

Six clinical isolates of influenza A viruses were examined for hemagglutinin receptor specificity and neuraminidase substrate specificity. All of the viral isolates minimally passaged in mammalian cells demonstrated preferential agglutination of human erythrocytes enzymatically modified to contain NeuAc alpha 2,6Gal sequences, with no agglutination of cells bearing NeuAc alpha 2,3Gal sequences. This finding is consistent with the hemagglutination receptor specificity previously demonstrated for laboratory strains of influenza A viruses. The neuraminidase substrate specificities of the clinical isolates examined were also identical to that described for the N2 neuraminidase of recent laboratory strains of human influenza viruses. The H3N2 viruses all displayed the ability to release sialic acid from both alpha 2, 3 and alpha 2, 6 linkages. In addition, two clinical isolates of H1N1 viruses also demonstrated this dual neuraminidase substrate specificity, a characteristic which has not been previously described for the N1 neuraminidase. These results demonstrate that complementary hemagglutinin and neuraminidase specificities are found in recent isolates of both H1N1 and H3N2 influenza viruses.

How critical is timing for the diagnosis of influenza in general practice?

Résumé La performance diagnostic des signes et symptômes de la grippe a principalement été étudiée dans le cadre d'études contrôlées avec des critères d'inclusion stricts. Il apparaît nécessaire d'évaluer ces prédicteurs dans le cadre d'une consultation ambulatoire habituelle en tenant compte du délai écoulé entre le début des symptômes et la première consultation ainsi que la situation épidémiologique. Cette étude prospective a été menée à la Policlinique Médicale Universitaire durant l'hiver 1999-2000. Les patients étaient inclus s'ils présentaient un syndrome grippal et si le praticien suspectait une infection à Influenza. Le médecin administrait un questionnaire puis une culture d'un frottis de gorge était réalisée afin de documenter l'infection. 201 patients ont été inclus dans l'étude. 52% avaient une culture positive pour Influenza. En analyse univariée, une température > 37.8° (OR 4.2; 95% CI 2.3-7.7), une durée des symptômes < 48h (OR 3.2; 1.8-5.7), une toux (OR 3.2; 1-10.4) et des myalgies (OR 2.8; 1.0-7.5) étaient associés au diagnostic de grippe. En analyse de régression logistique, le modèle le plus performant qui prédisait la grippe était l'association d'une durée des symptômes <48h, une consultation en début d'épidémie, une température > 37.8° et une toux (sensibilité 79%, spécificité 69%, valeur prédictive positive 67%, une valeur prédictive négative de 73% et aire sous la courbe (ROC) de 0.74). En plus des signes et symptômes prédicteurs de la grippe, le médecin de premier recours devrait prendre en compte dans son jugement la durée des symptômes avant la première consultation et le contexte épidémiologique (début, pic, fin de l'épidémie), car ces deux paramètres modifient considérablement la valeurs des prédicteurs lors de l'évaluation de la probabilité clinique d'un patient d'avoir une infection à Influenza.

Distribuição Geográfica e Dispersão Alti-latitudinal de Alguns Gêneros e Espécies da Tribo Triatomini Jeannel, 1919 (Hemiptera, Reduviidae, Triatominae)

Geographical Distribution and Alti-latitudinal Dispersion of Some Genera and Species of the Tribe Triatomini Jeannel, 1919 (Hemiptera, Reduviidae, Triatominae) - With the currently known distribution of genera and species of the tribe Triatomini Jeannel, 1919, maps and diagrams were prepared, showing the geographical area occupied by the species and their respective dispersion in grades of latitude and altitude. Two genera are not treated: Panstrongylus Berg, 1879, already published and Triatoma Laporte, 1832, that is being published partially in several articles. Genus Eratyrus Stal, 1859, has two species, while Dipetalogaster Usinger, 1939, Mepraia Mazza, Gajardo & Joerg, 1940, Paratriatoma Barber, 1938 and recently created genus Hermanlentia Jurberg & Galvão, 1997, have only one each. The study of these maps and diagrams permits a better knowledge about some ecological requirements of Chagas' disease vectors and detects gaps in the geographical distribution, where the species were not found but probably they could be prevalent

Molecular Basis of Ribotype Variation in the Seventh Pandemic Clone and its O139 Variant of Vibrio cholerae

Ribotyping has been widely used to characterise the seventh pandemic clone including South American and O139 variants which appeared in 1991 and 1992 respectively. To reveal the molecular basis of ribotype variation we analysed the rrn operons and their flanking regions. All but one variation detected by BglI, the most discriminatory enzyme, was found to be due to changes within the rrn operons, resulting from recombination between operons. The recombinants are detected because of the presence of a BglI site in the 16S gene in three of the nine rrn operons and/or changes of intergenic spacer types of which four variants were identified. As the frequency of rrn recombination is high, ribotyping becomes a less useful tool for evolutionary studies and long term monitoring of the pathogenic clones of Vibrio cholerae as variation could undergo precise reversion by the same recombination event.

Dysfonction métabolique et stress chronique: un nouveau regard sur la pandémie de "diabésité" [Metabolic dysfunction and chronic stress: a new sight at "diabesity" pandemic]

Chronic stress in Western society can activate the autonomus, neuroendocrine and inflammatory/immunlogic systems. Chronic exposure to stressors can indeed stimulate the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis and induce a disbalance between anabolic and catabolic hormones, responsible of an increased in visceral fat and of insulin resistance. These metabolic consequences can lead to pre-diabetes. Exposure to chronic stress results in allostatic load and its pathophysiologic consequences. The knowledge of this mecanisms and the cardiovascular and metabolic risk related, should influence our way of thinking about patient care. To decrease allostatic load, practitioners can rely on therapeutic relation. Therapeutic education is one of the skill that can be use to create therapeutic relation.

Influenza vaccination and humoral alloimmunity in solid organ transplant recipients.

Annual influenza vaccination is recommended in solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients. However, concerns have been raised about the impact of vaccination on antigraft alloimmunity. We evaluated the humoral alloimmune responses to influenza vaccination in a cohort of SOT recipients between October 2008 and December 2011. Anti-HLA antibodies were measured before and 4-8 weeks after influenza vaccination using a solid-phase assay. Overall, 169 SOT recipients were included (kidney = 136, lung = 26, liver = 3, and combined = 4). Five (2.9%) of 169 patients developed de novo anti-HLA antibodies after vaccination, including one patient who developed donor-specific antibodies (DSA) 8 months after vaccination. In patients with pre-existing anti-HLA antibodies, median MFI was not significantly different before and after vaccination (P = 0.73 for class I and P = 0.20 for class II anti-HLA antibodies) and no development of de novo DSA was observed. Five episodes of rejection (2.9%) were observed within 12 months after vaccination, and only one patient had de novo anti-HLA antibodies. The incidence of development of anti-HLA antibodies after influenza vaccination in our cohort of SOT recipients was very low. Our findings indicate that influenza vaccination is safe and does not trigger humoral alloimmune responses in SOT recipients.

Report of the Pandemic Review Group

Report of the Pandemic Review Group This Report gives an overview of the response to Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 and will inform Pandemic Planning into the future. Click here to download PDF 262KB