Countries under Adjustment Programmes: What role for the ECB? CEPS Special Report No. 124, December 2015

Providing ‘technical assistance/advice’ on programmes for countries under financial stress is well within the mandate of the European Central Bank (ECB). Being fully part of the Troika, however, is a different role. Formally the ECB does not participate in the ‘decision-making’ on programmes (decisions are taken by the Finance Ministers – and the IMF). However, the ECB is part of the ‘decision-shaping’ process. These two roles have often been confused. The ECB should interpret its formal role in future ESM (European Stability Mechanism) programmes as narrowly as possible. Providing advice but avoid taking part in the operational work of programme surveillance. The ECB should de facto leave the Troika. At any rate, future incidents like the Italian or Spanish letters will be superseded by the OMTs (outright monetary transactions) and an Irish-type situation would be shaped by the legal framework of the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD) and the potential funding from the Single Resolution Fund (SRF). An additional issue for the ECB is internal coherence: Its six-member Executive Board manages the participation in the Troika, monetary policy is decided by the Governing Council and banking supervision is under the Supervisory Board, separated in principle by Chinese walls from the (rest of the) ECB.

(Table 1) Age determination of ODP Sites 124-769 and 124-768

The Sulu Sea is located in the 'warm pool' of the western Pacific Ocean, where mean annual temperatures are the highest of anywhere on Earth. Because this large heat source supplies the atmosphere with a significant portion of its water vapour and latent heat, understanding the climate history of the region is important for reconstructing global palaeoclimate and for predicting future climate change. Changes in the oxygen isotope composition of planktonic foraminifera from Sulu Sea sediments have previously been shown to reflect changes in the planetary ice volume at glacial-interglacial and millenial timeseales, and such records have been obtained for the late Pleistocene epoch and the last deglaciation (Linsley and Thunell, 1990, doi:10.1029/PA005i006p01025; Lindley and Dunbar, 1994, doi:10.1029/93PA03216; Kudrass et al., 1991, doi:10.1038/349406a0). Here I present results that extend the millenial time resolution record back to 150,000 years before present. On timescales of around 10,000 years, the Sulu Sea oxygen-isotope record matches changes in sea level deduced from coral terraces on the Huon peninsula (Chappell and Shackleton, doi:10.1038/324137a0). This is particularly the case during isotope stage 3 (an interglacial period 23,000 to 58,000 years ago) where the Sulu Sea oxygen-isotope record deviates from the SPECMAP deep-ocean oxygen-isotope record (Imbrie et al., 1984). Thus these results support the idea (Chappell and Shackleton, doi:10.1038/324137a0; Shackleton, 1987, doi:10.1016/0277-3791(87)90003-5) that there were higher sea levels and less continental ice during stage 3 than the SPECMAP record implies and that sea level during this interglacial was just 40-50 metres below present levels. The subsequent rate of increase in continental ice volume during the return to full glacial conditions was correspondingly faster than previously thought.