Estimating HIV Incidence, Time to Diagnosis, and the Undiagnosed HIV Epidemic Using Routine Surveillance Data.

BACKGROUND Estimates of the size of the undiagnosed HIV-infected population are important to understand the HIV epidemic and to plan interventions, including "test-and-treat" strategies. METHODS We developed a multi-state back-calculation model to estimate HIV incidence, time between infection and diagnosis, and the undiagnosed population by CD4 count strata, using surveillance data on new HIV and AIDS diagnoses. The HIV incidence curve was modelled using cubic splines. The model was tested on simulated data and applied to surveillance data on men who have sex with men in The Netherlands. RESULTS The number of HIV infections could be estimated accurately using simulated data, with most values within the 95% confidence intervals of model predictions. When applying the model to Dutch surveillance data, 15,400 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 15,000, 16,000) men who have sex with men were estimated to have been infected between 1980 and 2011. HIV incidence showed a bimodal distribution, with peaks around 1985 and 2005 and a decline in recent years. Mean time to diagnosis was 6.1 (95% CI = 5.8, 6.4) years between 1984 and 1995 and decreased to 2.6 (2.3, 3.0) years in 2011. By the end of 2011, 11,500 (11,000, 12,000) men who have sex with men in The Netherlands were estimated to be living with HIV, of whom 1,750 (1,450, 2,200) were still undiagnosed. Of the undiagnosed men who have sex with men, 29% (22, 37) were infected for less than 1 year, and 16% (13, 20) for more than 5 years. CONCLUSIONS This multi-state back-calculation model will be useful to estimate HIV incidence, time to diagnosis, and the undiagnosed HIV epidemic based on routine surveillance data.

Chronic postsurgical pain in Europe: An observational study.

BACKGROUND Chronic postsurgical pain (CPSP) is an important clinical problem. Prospective studies of the incidence, characteristics and risk factors of CPSP are needed. OBJECTIVES The objective of this study is to evaluate the incidence and risk factors of CPSP. DESIGN A multicentre, prospective, observational trial. SETTING Twenty-one hospitals in 11 European countries. PATIENTS Three thousand one hundred and twenty patients undergoing surgery and enrolled in the European registry PAIN OUT. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Pain-related outcome was evaluated on the first postoperative day (D1) using a standardised pain outcome questionnaire. Review at 6 and 12 months via e-mail or telephonic interview used the Brief Pain Inventory (BPI) and the DN4 (Douleur Neuropathique four questions). Primary endpoint was the incidence of moderate to severe CPSP (numeric rating scale, NRS ≥3/10) at 12 months. RESULTS For 1044 and 889 patients, complete data were available at 6 and 12 months. At 12 months, the incidence of moderate to severe CPSP was 11.8% (95% CI 9.7 to 13.9) and of severe pain (NRS ≥6) 2.2% (95% CI 1.2 to 3.3). Signs of neuropathic pain were recorded in 35.4% (95% CI 23.9 to 48.3) and 57.1% (95% CI 30.7 to 83.4) of patients with moderate and severe CPSP, respectively. Functional impairment (BPI) at 6 and 12 months increased with the severity of CPSP (P < 0.01) and presence of neuropathic characteristics (P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis identified orthopaedic surgery, preoperative chronic pain and percentage of time in severe pain on D1 as risk factors. A 10% increase in percentage of time in severe pain was associated with a 30% increase of CPSP incidence at 12 months. CONCLUSION The collection of data on CPSP was feasible within the European registry PAIN OUT. The incidence of moderate to severe CPSP at 12 months was 11.8%. Functional impairment was associated with CPSP severity and neuropathic characteristics. Risk factors for CPSP in the present study were chronic preoperative pain, orthopaedic surgery and percentage of time in severe pain on D1. TRIAL REGISTRATION Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT01467102.

Cigarette Smoke Exposure Increases Myeloid Cell Production and Lung Bacterial Clearance in Mice

Pneumonia is a leading cause of hospitalization in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Although most COPD patients are smokers, the effects of cigarette smoke exposure on clearance of lung bacterial pathogens and on immune and inflammatory responses are incompletely defined. Here, clearance of Streptococcus pneumoniae and Pseudomonas aeruginosa and associated immune responses were examined in mice exposed to cigarette smoke or following smoking cessation. Mice exposed to cigarette smoke for 6 weeks or 4 months demonstrated decreased lung bacterial burden compared to air-exposed mice when infected 16-24 hours post-exposure. When infection was performed after smoke cessation, bacterial clearance kinetics of mice previously exposed to smoke reversed to comparable levels as those of control mice suggesting that the observed defects were not dependent on adaptive immunological memory to bacterial determinants found in smoke. Comparing cytokine levels and myeloid cell production prior to infection in mice exposed to cigarette smoke relative to mice never exposed or following smoke cessation revealed that reduced bacterial burden was most strongly associated with higher levels of IL-1β and GM-CSF in the lungs and with increased neutrophil reserve and monocyte turnover in the bone marrow. Using serpinb1a-deficient mice with reduced neutrophil numbers and treatment with G-CSF showed that increased neutrophil numbers contribute only in part to the effect of smoke on infection. Our findings indicate that cigarette smoke induces a temporary and reversible increase in clearance of lung pathogens, which correlates with local inflammation and increased myeloid cell output from the bone marrow.

Central and peripheral defects in motor units of the diaphragm of spinal muscular atrophy mice.

Spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) is characterized by motoneuron loss and muscle weakness. However, the structural and functional deficits that lead to the impairment of the neuromuscular system remain poorly defined. By electron microscopy, we previously found that neuromuscular junctions (NMJs) and muscle fibres of the diaphragm are among the earliest affected structures in the severe mouse SMA model. Because of certain anatomical features, i.e. its thinness and its innervation from the cervical segments of the spinal cord, the diaphragm is particularly suitable to characterize both central and peripheral events. Here we show by immunohistochemistry that, at postnatal day 3, the cervical motoneurons of SMA mice receive less stimulatory synaptic inputs. Moreover, their mitochondria become less elongated which might represent an early stage of degeneration. The NMJs of the diaphragm of SMA mice show a loss of synaptic vesicles and active zones. Moreover, the partly innervated endplates lack S100 positive perisynaptic Schwann cells (PSCs). We also demonstrate the feasibility of comparing the proteomic composition between diaphragm regions enriched and poor in NMJs. By this approach we have identified two proteins that are significantly upregulated only in the NMJ-specific regions of SMA mice. These are apoptosis inducing factor 1 (AIFM1), a mitochondrial flavoprotein that initiates apoptosis in a caspase-independent pathway, and four and a half Lim domain protein 1 (FHL1), a regulator of skeletal muscle mass that has been implicated in several myopathies.

Direct Mechanical Intervention Versus Combined Intravenous and Mechanical Intervention in Large Artery Anterior Circulation Stroke: A Matched-Pairs Analysis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Five randomized controlled trials have consistently shown that mechanical thrombectomy (MT) in addition to best medical treatment (±intravenous tissue-type plasminogen activator) improves outcome after acute ischemic stroke in patients with large artery anterior circulation stroke. Whether direct MT is equally effective as combined intravenous thrombolysis with MT (ie, bridging thrombolysis) remains unclear. METHODS We retrospectively compared clinical and radiological outcomes in 167 bridging patients with 255 patients receiving direct MT because of large artery anterior circulation stroke. We matched all patients from the direct MT group who would have qualified for intravenous tissue-type plasminogen activator with controls from the bridging group, using multivariate and propensity score analyses. Functional independence was defined as modified Rankin Scale score of 0 to 2. RESULTS From February 2009 to August 2014, 40 patients from the direct MT group would have qualified for bridging thrombolysis but were treated with MT only. Clinical and radiological characteristics did not differ from the bridging cohort, except for higher rates of hypercholesterolemia (P=0.019), coronary heart disease (P=0.039), and shorter intervals from symptom onset to endovascular intervention (P=0.01) in the direct MT group. Functional independence, mortality, and intracerebral hemorrhage rates did not differ (P>0.1). After multivariate matching analysis outcome in both groups did not differ, except for lower rates of asymptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (P=0.023) and lower mortality (P=0.007) in the direct MT group. CONCLUSIONS In patients with large anterior circulation stroke, direct mechanical intervention seems to be equally effective as bridging thrombolysis. A randomized trial comparing direct MT with bridging therapy is warranted.

France, Italy, and Spain: Culturally Similar Nations, Yet Drastically Different In Their Roles as European Union Nations

Since France, Italy and Spain are neighboring Western European countries, whose languages and cultures have descended from Latin, it is inevitable that these countries share similarities on many levels. France, Italy and Spain share similar lifestyles, religious values and cultural heritages. Throughout history France, Italy and Spain have experienced many of the same historical events because of their geographical proximity. Now that all three countries are members of the European Union they have become further united by occupying a common area without border controls, and sharing a common market, laws, and currency. While France, Italy and Spain share many commonalities, their opinions and relationships within the European Union are diverse. Although each nation struggles to balance its national identity with its European identity and to maintain its sovereignty while at the same time giving some of it up to the EU, each nation has its own ideas about how much its identity should change and how much sovereignty it should give up to the EU government. Each nation also has unique opinions about what it means to part of the European Union and what the requirements for becoming a member nation should be. Each nation has different goals it hopes to accomplish for its own country and for the European Union. The differing ideas amongst France, Italy and Spain are a result of the variance that exists amongst their political and economic relationships and institutions, which have been molded by the historical experiences of each nation. The focus of this paper will be examining why France, Spain and Italy share many cultural similarities, yet differ so greatly in their roles as members of the European Union. After a brief background on the European Union, I will discuss the cultural similarities France, Italy and Spain share. I will then mention several economic and political differences between the three countries and use supporting evidence to explain why and in what context these differences have arisen

Isotone Recursive Methods for Overlapping Generation Models with Stochastic Nonclassical Production

Based on an order-theoretic approach, we derive sufficient conditions for the existence, characterization, and computation of Markovian equilibrium decision processes and stationary Markov equilibrium on minimal state spaces for a large class of stochastic overlapping generations models. In contrast to all previous work, we consider reduced-form stochastic production technologies that allow for a broad set of equilibrium distortions such as public policy distortions, social security, monetary equilibrium, and production nonconvexities. Our order-based methods are constructive, and we provide monotone iterative algorithms for computing extremal stationary Markov equilibrium decision processes and equilibrium invariant distributions, while avoiding many of the problems associated with the existence of indeterminacies that have been well-documented in previous work. We provide important results for existence of Markov equilibria for the case where capital income is not increasing in the aggregate stock. Finally, we conclude with examples common in macroeconomics such as models with fiat money and social security. We also show how some of our results extend to settings with unbounded state spaces.

LCAO-MO's are not Eigenfunctions of the H_2^+ Hamiltonian

A simple LCAO-MO for the hydrogen molecule cation is tested for eigenfunctionality and found to be flawed.