Time series wind power forecasting based on variant Gaussian process and TLBO

Due to the variability and stochastic nature of wind power system, accurate wind power forecasting has an important role in developing reliable and economic power system operation and control strategies. As wind variability is stochastic, Gaussian Process regression has recently been introduced to capture the randomness of wind energy. However, the disadvantages of Gaussian Process regression include its computation complexity and incapability to adapt to time varying time-series systems. A variant Gaussian Process for time series forecasting is introduced in this study to address these issues. This new method is shown to be capable of reducing computational complexity and increasing prediction accuracy. It is further proved that the forecasting result converges as the number of available data approaches innite. Further, a teaching learning based optimization (TLBO) method is used to train the model and to accelerate
the learning rate. The proposed modelling and optimization method is applied to forecast both the wind power generation of Ireland and that from a single wind farm to show the eectiveness of the proposed method.

Characterisation of Large Disturbance Rotor Angle and Voltage Stability in Interconnected Power Networks with Distributed Wind Generation

Wind generation in highly interconnected power networks creates local and centralised stability issues based on their proximity to conventional synchronous generators and load centres. This paper examines the large disturbance stability issues (i.e. rotor angle and voltage stability) in power networks with geographically distributed wind resources in the context of a number of dispatch scenarios based on profiles of historical wind generation for a real power network. Stability issues have been analysed using novel stability indices developed from dynamic characteristics of wind generation. The results of this study show that localised stability issues worsen when significant penetration of both conventional and wind generation is present due to their non-complementary characteristics. In contrast, network stability improves when either high penetration of wind and synchronous generation is present in the network. Therefore, network regions can be clustered into two distinct stability groups (i.e. superior stability and inferior stability regions). Network stability improves when a voltage control strategy is implemented at wind farms, however both stability clusters remain unchanged irrespective of change in the control strategy. Moreover, this study has shown that the enhanced fault ride-through (FRT) strategy for wind farms can improve both voltage and rotor angle stability locally, but only a marginal improvement is evident in neighbouring regions.

Estimating Bat and Bird Mortality Occurring at Wind Energy Turbines from Covariates and Carcass Searches Using Mixture Models

Environmental impacts of wind energy facilities increasingly cause concern, a central issue being bats and birds killed by rotor blades. Two approaches have been employed to assess collision rates: carcass searches and surveys of animals prone to collisions. Carcass searches can provide an estimate for the actual number of animals being killed but they offer little information on the relation between collision rates and, for example, weather parameters due to the time of death not being precisely known. In contrast, a density index of animals exposed to collision is sufficient to analyse the parameters influencing the collision rate. However, quantification of the collision rate from animal density indices (e.g. acoustic bat activity or bird migration traffic rates) remains difficult. We combine carcass search data with animal density indices in a mixture model to investigate collision rates. In a simulation study we show that the collision rates estimated by our model were at least as precise as conventional estimates based solely on carcass search data. Furthermore, if certain conditions are met, the model can be used to predict the collision rate from density indices alone, without data from carcass searches. This can reduce the time and effort required to estimate collision rates. We applied the model to bat carcass search data obtained at 30 wind turbines in 15 wind facilities in Germany. We used acoustic bat activity and wind speed as predictors for the collision rate. The model estimates correlated well with conventional estimators. Our model can be used to predict the average collision rate. It enables an analysis of the effect of parameters such as rotor diameter or turbine type on the collision rate. The model can also be used in turbine-specific curtailment algorithms that predict the collision rate and reduce this rate with a minimal loss of energy production.

A Framework for Assessing the Reliability of Wind Energy Conversion Systems

During the last decade, wind power generation has seen rapid development. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, achieving 20\% wind power penetration in the U.S. by 2030 will require: (i) enhancement of the transmission infrastructure, (ii) improvement of reliability and operability of wind systems and (iii) increased U.S. manufacturing capacity of wind generation equipment. This research will concentrate on improvement of reliability and operability of wind energy conversion systems (WECSs). The increased penetration of wind energy into the grid imposes new operating conditions on power systems. This change requires development of an adequate reliability framework. This thesis proposes a framework for assessing WECS reliability in the face of external disturbances, e.g., grid faults and internal component faults. The framework is illustrated using a detailed model of type C WECS - doubly fed induction generator with corresponding deterministic and random variables in a simplified grid model. Fault parameters and performance requirements essential to reliability measurements are included in the simulation. The proposed framework allows a quantitative analysis of WECS designs; analysis of WECS control schemes, e.g., fault ride-through mechanisms; discovery of key parameters that influence overall WECS reliability; and computation of WECS reliability with respect to different grid codes/performance requirements.

A novel continuous pitch electronic wind instrument controller

We present a design for an electronic continuous pitch wind controller for musical performance. It uses a combination of linear position, magnetic reed, and air pressure sensors to generate three fully continuous control dimensions. Each control dimension is encoded and transmitted using the industry standard MIDI protocol to allow the instrument to interface with a large variety of synthesizers to control different parameters of the synthesis algorithm in real time, allowing for a high degree of expressiveness not possible with existing electronic wind instrument controllers. The first part of the thesis will provide a justification for the design of a novel instrument, and present some of the theory behind pitch representation, encoding, and transmission with respect to digital systems. The remainder of the thesis will present the particular design and explain the workings of its various subsystems.

Extrapolating Satellite Winds to Turbine Operating Heights

Ocean wind retrievals from satellite sensors are typically performed for the standard level of 10 m. This restricts their full exploitation for wind energy planning, which requires wind information at much higher levels where wind turbines operate. A new method is presented for the vertical extrapolation of satellite-based wind maps. Winds near the sea surface are obtained from satellite data and used together with an adaptation of the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory to estimate the wind speed at higher levels. The thermal stratification of the atmosphere is taken into account through a long-term stability correction that is based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) model outputs. The effect of the long-term stability correction on the wind profile is significant. The method is applied to Envisat Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar scenes acquired over the south Baltic Sea. This leads to maps of the long-term stability correction and wind speed at a height of 100 m with a spatial resolution of 0.02°. Calculations of the corresponding wind power density and Weibull parameters are shown. Comparisons with mast observations reveal that NWP model outputs can correct successfully for long-term stability effects and also, to some extent, for the limited number of satellite samples. The satellite-based and NWP-simulated wind profiles are almost equally accurate with respect to those from the mast. However, the satellite-based maps have a higher spatial resolution, which is particularly important in nearshore areas where most offshore wind farms are built.

Real-time load-side control of electric power systems

Two trends are emerging from modern electric power systems: the growth of renewable (e.g., solar and wind) generation, and the integration of information technologies and advanced power electronics. The former introduces large, rapid, and random fluctuations in power supply, demand, frequency, and voltage, which become a major challenge for real-time operation of power systems. The latter creates a tremendous number of controllable intelligent endpoints such as smart buildings and appliances, electric vehicles, energy storage devices, and power electronic devices that can sense, compute, communicate, and actuate. Most of these endpoints are distributed on the load side of power systems, in contrast to traditional control resources such as centralized bulk generators. This thesis focuses on controlling power systems in real time, using these load side resources. Specifically, it studies two problems.

(1) Distributed load-side frequency control: We establish a mathematical framework to design distributed frequency control algorithms for flexible electric loads. In this framework, we formulate a category of optimization problems, called optimal load control (OLC), to incorporate the goals of frequency control, such as balancing power supply and demand, restoring frequency to its nominal value, restoring inter-area power flows, etc., in a way that minimizes total disutility for the loads to participate in frequency control by deviating from their nominal power usage. By exploiting distributed algorithms to solve OLC and analyzing convergence of these algorithms, we design distributed load-side controllers and prove stability of closed-loop power systems governed by these controllers. This general framework is adapted and applied to different types of power systems described by different models, or to achieve different levels of control goals under different operation scenarios. We first consider a dynamically coherent power system which can be equivalently modeled with a single synchronous machine. We then extend our framework to a multi-machine power network, where we consider primary and secondary frequency controls, linear and nonlinear power flow models, and the interactions between generator dynamics and load control.

(2) Two-timescale voltage control: The voltage of a power distribution system must be maintained closely around its nominal value in real time, even in the presence of highly volatile power supply or demand. For this purpose, we jointly control two types of reactive power sources: a capacitor operating at a slow timescale, and a power electronic device, such as a smart inverter or a D-STATCOM, operating at a fast timescale. Their control actions are solved from optimal power flow problems at two timescales. Specifically, the slow-timescale problem is a chance-constrained optimization, which minimizes power loss and regulates the voltage at the current time instant while limiting the probability of future voltage violations due to stochastic changes in power supply or demand. This control framework forms the basis of an optimal sizing problem, which determines the installation capacities of the control devices by minimizing the sum of power loss and capital cost. We develop computationally efficient heuristics to solve the optimal sizing problem and implement real-time control. Numerical experiments show that the proposed sizing and control schemes significantly improve the reliability of voltage control with a moderate increase in cost.

Vortex Shedding Dynamics in Long Aspect-Ratio Aerodynamics Bodies

The focus of the current dissertation is to study qualitatively the underlying physics of vortex-shedding and wake dynamics in long aspect-ratio aerodynamics in incompressible viscous flow through the use of the KLE method. We carried out a long series of numerical experiments in the cases of flow around the cylinder at low Reynolds numbers. The study of flow at low Reynolds numbers provides an insight in the fluid physics and also plays a critical role when applying to stalled turbine rotors. Many of the conclusions about the qualitative nature of the physical mechanisms characterizing vortex formation, shedding and further interaction analyzed here at low Re could be extended to other Re regimes and help to understand the separation of the boundary layers in airfoils and other aerodynamic surfaces. In the long run, it aims to provide a better understanding of the complex multi-physics problems involving fluid-structure-control interaction through improved mathematical computational models of the multi-physics process. Besides the scientific conclusions produced, the research work on streamlined and bluff-body condition will also serve as a valuable guide for the future design of blade aerodynamics and the placement of wind turbines and hydrakinetic turbines, increasing the efficiency in the use of expensive workforce, supplies, and infrastructure. After the introductory section describing the main fields of application of wind power and hydrokinetic turbines, we describe the main features and theoretical background of the numerical method used here. Then, we present the analysis of the numerical experimentation results for the oscillatory regime right before the onset of vortex shedding for circular cylinders. We verified the wake length of the closed near-wake behind the cylinder and analysed the decay of the wake at the wake formation region, and then studied the St-Re relationship at the Reynolds numbers before the wake sheds compared to the experimental data. We found a theoretical model that describes the time evolution of the amplitude of fluctuations in the vorticity field on the twin vortex wake, which accurately matches the numerical results in terms of the frequency of the oscillation and rate of decay. We also proposed a model based on an analog circuit that is able to interpret the concerning flow by reducing the number of degrees of freedom. It follows the idea of the non-linear oscillator and resembles the dynamics mechanism of the closed near-wake with a common configured sine wave oscillator. This low-dimensional circuital model may also help to understand the underlying physical mechanisms, related to vorticity transport, that give origin to those oscillations.

Design of an Efficient Hybrid System for Electricity Production with Supervisory Control

This chapter aims to develop a new method for the economical evaluation of Hybrid Systems for electricity production. The different types of renewable sources are specifically evaluated in the economical performance of the overall equipment. The presented methodology was applied to evaluate the design of a photovoltaic-wind-diesel hybrid system to produce electricity for a community in the neighbourhood of Luanda, Angola. Once the hybrid generator is selected, it is proposed to provide the system with a supervisory control strategy to maximize its operating efficiency.

A second order control-volume finite-element least-squares strategy for simulating diffusion in strongly anisotropic media

An unstructured mesh �nite volume discretisation method for simulating di�usion in anisotropic media in two-dimensional space is discussed. This technique is considered as an extension of the fully implicit hybrid control-volume �nite-element method and it retains the local continuity of the ux at the control volume faces. A least squares function recon- struction technique together with a new ux decomposition strategy is used to obtain an accurate ux approximation at the control volume face, ensuring that the overall accuracy of the spatial discretisation maintains second order. This paper highlights that the new technique coincides with the traditional shape function technique when the correction term is neglected and that it signi�cantly increases the accuracy of the previous linear scheme on coarse meshes when applied to media that exhibit very strong to extreme anisotropy ratios. It is concluded that the method can be used on both regular and irregular meshes, and appears independent of the mesh quality.