901 resultados para two-stage sequential procedure


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Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit war es, mithilfe von Dressurexperimenten in Kombination mit dem Einsatz von Neuropharmaka die Bedeutung des retinalen ON-Kanals für zwei visuelle Leistungen des Goldfisches – das kontrastabhängige zeitliche Auflösungsvermögen sowie die Wellenlängenunterscheidungsfähigkeit - zu untersuchen. Da die Tiere nach der pharmakologischen Blockade keinerlei verändertes Verhalten zeigten, kann davon ausgegangen werden, dass der retinale ON-Kanal weder für die Prozessierung des kontrastabhängigen zeitlichen Auflösungsvermögens noch für die Wellenlängenunterscheidungsfähigkeit eine maßgebliche Rolle spielt. Aus den Versuchen zur Wellenlängenunterscheidungsfähigkeit kann des Weiteren abgeleitet werden, dass der ON-Kanal auch für die spektrale Empfindlichkeit der Tiere bei der gegebenen Beleuchtungs- und Dressurbedingungen (L+-Dressur) keine Bedeutung zu haben scheint. Nach den Versuchen zum kontrastabhängigen zeitlichen Auflösungsvermögen kann festgehalten werden, dass das zeitliche Auflösungsvermögen des Goldfisches sich mit abnehmendem Stimuluskontrast verändert: Der für die Tiere wahrnehmbare Flickerfrequenzbereich wird mit abnehmendem Kontrast geringer. Die Flimmerfusionsfrequenz wird im oberen Frequenzbereich früher erreicht; im unteren Flickerfrequenzbereich tritt mit abnehmendem Kontrast auch eine untere Grenze des zeitlichen Auflösungsvermögens auf. Des Weiteren zeigen die Ergebnisse aus den Verhaltensversuchen zu den kontrastabhängigen zeitlichen Übertragungseigenschaften eine gute Vergleichbarkeit zu elektrophysiologisch gewonnenen Antworten von ON bzw. OFF-Bipolarzellen. Ebenso ähneln sich die Kurvenverläufe zum kontrastabhängigen zeitlichen Auflösungsvermögen und die aus den Versuchen zur kontrastabhängigen Ganzfeldbewegungswahrnehmung – einer visuellen Leistung, deren Prozessierung eines ON-Kanal-Beitrages bedarf. Diese Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass das zeitliche Auflösungsvermögen wie auch die Ganzfeldbewegungswahrnehmung hauptsächlich von retinalen Verarbeitungsprozessen abhängen.

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In questo lavoro di tesi si è elaborato un quadro di riferimento per l’utilizzo combinato di due metodologie di valutazione di impatti LCA e RA, per tecnologie emergenti. L’originalità dello studio sta nell’aver proposto e anche applicato il quadro di riferimento ad un caso studio, in particolare ad una tecnologia innovativa di refrigerazione, basata su nanofluidi (NF), sviluppata da partner del progetto Europeo Nanohex che hanno collaborato all’elaborazione degli studi soprattutto per quanto riguarda l’inventario dei dati necessari. La complessità dello studio è da ritrovare tanto nella difficile integrazione di due metodologie nate per scopi differenti e strutturate per assolvere a quegli scopi, quanto nel settore di applicazione che seppur in forte espansione ha delle forti lacune di informazioni circa processi di produzione e comportamento delle sostanze. L’applicazione è stata effettuata sulla produzione di nanofluido (NF) di allumina secondo due vie produttive (single-stage e two-stage) per valutare e confrontare gli impatti per la salute umana e l’ambiente. Occorre specificare che il LCA è stato quantitativo ma non ha considerato gli impatti dei NM nelle categorie di tossicità. Per quanto concerne il RA è stato sviluppato uno studio di tipo qualitativo, a causa della problematica di carenza di parametri tossicologici e di esposizione su citata avente come focus la categoria dei lavoratori, pertanto è stata fatta l’assunzione che i rilasci in ambiente durante la fase di produzione sono trascurabili. Per il RA qualitativo è stato utilizzato un SW specifico, lo Stoffenmanger-Nano che rende possibile la prioritizzazione dei rischi associati ad inalazione in ambiente di lavoro. Il quadro di riferimento prevede una procedura articolata in quattro fasi: DEFINIZIONE SISTEMA TECNOLOGICO, RACCOLTA DATI, VALUTAZIONE DEL RISCHIO E QUANTIFICAZIONE DEGLI IMPATTI, INTERPRETAZIONE.

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Waste management represents an important issue in our society and Waste-to-Energy incineration plants have been playing a significant role in the last decades, showing an increased importance in Europe. One of the main issues posed by waste combustion is the generation of air contaminants. Particular concern is present about acid gases, mainly hydrogen chloride and sulfur oxides, due to their potential impact on the environment and on human health. Therefore, in the present study the main available technological options for flue gas treatment were analyzed, focusing on dry treatment systems, which are increasingly applied in Municipal Solid Wastes (MSW) incinerators. An operational model was proposed to describe and optimize acid gas removal process. It was applied to an existing MSW incineration plant, where acid gases are neutralized in a two-stage dry treatment system. This process is based on the injection of powdered calcium hydroxide and sodium bicarbonate in reactors followed by fabric filters. HCl and SO2 conversions were expressed as a function of reactants flow rates, calculating model parameters from literature and plant data. The implementation in a software for process simulation allowed the identification of optimal operating conditions, taking into account the reactant feed rates, the amount of solid products and the recycle of the sorbent. Alternative configurations of the reference plant were also assessed. The applicability of the operational model was extended developing also a fundamental approach to the issue. A predictive model was developed, describing mass transfer and kinetic phenomena governing the acid gas neutralization with solid sorbents. The rate controlling steps were identified through the reproduction of literature data, allowing the description of acid gas removal in the case study analyzed. A laboratory device was also designed and started up to assess the required model parameters.

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During a two-stage revision for prosthetic joint infections (PJI), joint aspirations, open tissue sampling and serum inflammatory markers are performed before re-implantation to exclude ongoing silent infection. We investigated the performance of these diagnostic procedures on the risk of recurrence of PJI among asymptomatic patients undergoing a two-stage revision. A total of 62 PJI were found in 58 patients. All patients had intra-operative surgical exploration during re-implantation, and 48 of them had intra-operative microbiological swabs. Additionally, 18 joint aspirations and one open biopsy were performed before second-stage reimplantation. Recurrence or persistence of PJI occurred in 12 cases with a mean delay of 218 days after re-implantation, but only four pre- or intraoperative invasive joint samples had grown a pathogen in cultures. In at least seven recurrent PJIs (58%), patients had a normal C-reactive protein (CRP, < 10 mg/l) level before re-implantation. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive and negative predictive values of pre-operative invasive joint aspiration and CRP for the prediction of PJI recurrence was 0.58, 0.88, 0.5, 0.84 and 0.17, 0.81, 0.13, 0.86, respectively. As a conclusion, pre-operative joint aspiration, intraoperative bacterial sampling, surgical exploration and serum inflammatory markers are poor predictors of PJI recurrence. The onset of reinfection usually occurs far later than reimplantation.

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Elevated transaminases in asymptomatic patients can be detected in more than 5 % of the investigations. If there are no obvious reasons, the finding should be confirmed within the next 3 months. Frequent causes are non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), alcohol, hepatitis B or C, hemochromatosis and drugs or toxins. Rarer causes are autoimmune hepatitis, M. Wilson and α1-antitrypsine deficiency. There are also non-hepatic causes such as celiac disease or hemolysis and myopathies in the case of an exclusive increase of ASAT. I recommend a two-step investigational procedure; the more frequent causes are examined first before the rare causes are studied. The value of the proposed investigations is discussed.

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Multi-site time series studies of air pollution and mortality and morbidity have figured prominently in the literature as comprehensive approaches for estimating acute effects of air pollution on health. Hierarchical models are generally used to combine site-specific information and estimate pooled air pollution effects taking into account both within-site statistical uncertainty, and across-site heterogeneity. Within a site, characteristics of time series data of air pollution and health (small pollution effects, missing data, highly correlated predictors, non linear confounding etc.) make modelling all sources of uncertainty challenging. One potential consequence is underestimation of the statistical variance of the site-specific effects to be combined. In this paper we investigate the impact of variance underestimation on the pooled relative rate estimate. We focus on two-stage normal-normal hierarchical models and on under- estimation of the statistical variance at the first stage. By mathematical considerations and simulation studies, we found that variance underestimation does not affect the pooled estimate substantially. However, some sensitivity of the pooled estimate to variance underestimation is observed when the number of sites is small and underestimation is severe. These simulation results are applicable to any two-stage normal-normal hierarchical model for combining information of site-specific results, and they can be easily extended to more general hierarchical formulations. We also examined the impact of variance underestimation on the national average relative rate estimate from the National Morbidity Mortality Air Pollution Study and we found that variance underestimation as much as 40% has little effect on the national average.

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In this paper, we develop Bayesian hierarchical distributed lag models for estimating associations between daily variations in summer ozone levels and daily variations in cardiovascular and respiratory (CVDRESP) mortality counts for 19 U.S. large cities included in the National Morbidity Mortality Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) for the period 1987 - 1994. At the first stage, we define a semi-parametric distributed lag Poisson regression model to estimate city-specific relative rates of CVDRESP associated with short-term exposure to summer ozone. At the second stage, we specify a class of distributions for the true city-specific relative rates to estimate an overall effect by taking into account the variability within and across cities. We perform the calculations with respect to several random effects distributions (normal, t-student, and mixture of normal), thus relaxing the common assumption of a two-stage normal-normal hierarchical model. We assess the sensitivity of the results to: 1) lag structure for ozone exposure; 2) degree of adjustment for long-term trends; 3) inclusion of other pollutants in the model;4) heat waves; 5) random effects distributions; and 6) prior hyperparameters. On average across cities, we found that a 10ppb increase in summer ozone level for every day in the previous week is associated with 1.25 percent increase in CVDRESP mortality (95% posterior regions: 0.47, 2.03). The relative rate estimates are also positive and statistically significant at lags 0, 1, and 2. We found that associations between summer ozone and CVDRESP mortality are sensitive to the confounding adjustment for PM_10, but are robust to: 1) the adjustment for long-term trends, other gaseous pollutants (NO_2, SO_2, and CO); 2) the distributional assumptions at the second stage of the hierarchical model; and 3) the prior distributions on all unknown parameters. Bayesian hierarchical distributed lag models and their application to the NMMAPS data allow us estimation of an acute health effect associated with exposure to ambient air pollution in the last few days on average across several locations. The application of these methods and the systematic assessment of the sensitivity of findings to model assumptions provide important epidemiological evidence for future air quality regulations.

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ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Sierra Leone has undergone a decade of civil war from 1991 to 2001. From this period few data on immunization coverage are available, and conflict-related delays in immunization according to the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) schedule have not been investigated. We aimed to study delays in childhood immunization in the context of civil war in a Sierra Leonean community. METHODS: We conducted an immunization survey in Kissy Mess-Mess in the Greater Freetown area in 1998/99 using a two-stage sampling method. Based on immunization cards and verbal history we collected data on immunization for tuberculosis, diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, polio, and measles by age group (0-8/9-11/12-23/24-35 months). We studied differences between age groups and explored temporal associations with war-related hostilities taking place in the community. RESULTS: We included 286 children who received 1690 vaccine doses; card retention was 87%. In 243 children (85%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 80-89%) immunization was up-to-date. In 161 of these children (56%, 95%CI: 50-62%) full age-appropriate immunization was achieved; in 82 (29%, 95%CI: 24-34%) immunization was not appropriate for age. In the remaining 43 children immunization was partial in 37 (13%, 95%CI: 9-17) and absent in 6 (2%, 95%CI: 1-5). Immunization status varied across age groups. In children aged 9-11 months the proportion with age-inappropriate (delayed) immunization was higher than in other age groups suggesting an association with war-related hostilities in the community. CONCLUSION: Only about half of children under three years received full age-appropriate immunization. In children born during a period of increased hostilities, immunization was mostly inappropriate for age, but recommended immunizations were not completely abandoned. Missing or delayed immunization represents an additional threat to the health of children living in conflict areas.

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Metals price risk management is a key issue related to financial risk in metal markets because of uncertainty of commodity price fluctuation, exchange rate, interest rate changes and huge price risk either to metals’ producers or consumers. Thus, it has been taken into account by all participants in metal markets including metals’ producers, consumers, merchants, banks, investment funds, speculators, traders and so on. Managing price risk provides stable income for both metals’ producers and consumers, so it increases the chance that a firm will invest in attractive projects. The purpose of this research is to evaluate risk management strategies in the copper market. The main tools and strategies of price risk management are hedging and other derivatives such as futures contracts, swaps and options contracts. Hedging is a transaction designed to reduce or eliminate price risk. Derivatives are financial instruments, whose returns are derived from other financial instruments and they are commonly used for managing financial risks. Although derivatives have been around in some form for centuries, their growth has accelerated rapidly during the last 20 years. Nowadays, they are widely used by financial institutions, corporations, professional investors, and individuals. This project is focused on the over-the-counter (OTC) market and its products such as exotic options, particularly Asian options. The first part of the project is a description of basic derivatives and risk management strategies. In addition, this part discusses basic concepts of spot and futures (forward) markets, benefits and costs of risk management and risks and rewards of positions in the derivative markets. The second part considers valuations of commodity derivatives. In this part, the options pricing model DerivaGem is applied to Asian call and put options on London Metal Exchange (LME) copper because it is important to understand how Asian options are valued and to compare theoretical values of the options with their market observed values. Predicting future trends of copper prices is important and would be essential to manage market price risk successfully. Therefore, the third part is a discussion about econometric commodity models. Based on this literature review, the fourth part of the project reports the construction and testing of an econometric model designed to forecast the monthly average price of copper on the LME. More specifically, this part aims at showing how LME copper prices can be explained by means of a simultaneous equation structural model (two-stage least squares regression) connecting supply and demand variables. A simultaneous econometric model for the copper industry is built: {█(Q_t^D=e^((-5.0485))∙P_((t-1))^((-0.1868) )∙〖GDP〗_t^((1.7151) )∙e^((0.0158)∙〖IP〗_t ) @Q_t^S=e^((-3.0785))∙P_((t-1))^((0.5960))∙T_t^((0.1408))∙P_(OIL(t))^((-0.1559))∙〖USDI〗_t^((1.2432))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((-0.0561))@Q_t^D=Q_t^S )┤ P_((t-1))^CU=e^((-2.5165))∙〖GDP〗_t^((2.1910))∙e^((0.0202)∙〖IP〗_t )∙T_t^((-0.1799))∙P_(OIL(t))^((0.1991))∙〖USDI〗_t^((-1.5881))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((0.0717) Where, Q_t^D and Q_t^Sare world demand for and supply of copper at time t respectively. P(t-1) is the lagged price of copper, which is the focus of the analysis in this part. GDPt is world gross domestic product at time t, which represents aggregate economic activity. In addition, industrial production should be considered here, so the global industrial production growth that is noted as IPt is included in the model. Tt is the time variable, which is a useful proxy for technological change. A proxy variable for the cost of energy in producing copper is the price of oil at time t, which is noted as POIL(t ) . USDIt is the U.S. dollar index variable at time t, which is an important variable for explaining the copper supply and copper prices. At last, LIBOR(t-6) is the 6-month lagged 1-year London Inter bank offering rate of interest. Although, the model can be applicable for different base metals' industries, the omitted exogenous variables such as the price of substitute or a combined variable related to the price of substitutes have not been considered in this study. Based on this econometric model and using a Monte-Carlo simulation analysis, the probabilities that the monthly average copper prices in 2006 and 2007 will be greater than specific strike price of an option are defined. The final part evaluates risk management strategies including options strategies, metal swaps and simple options in relation to the simulation results. The basic options strategies such as bull spreads, bear spreads and butterfly spreads, which are created by using both call and put options in 2006 and 2007 are evaluated. Consequently, each risk management strategy in 2006 and 2007 is analyzed based on the day of data and the price prediction model. As a result, applications stemming from this project include valuing Asian options, developing a copper price prediction model, forecasting and planning, and decision making for price risk management in the copper market.

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Heroin prices are a reflection of supply and demand, and similar to any other market, profits motivate participation. The intent of this research is to examine the change in Afghan opium production due to political conflict affecting Europe’s heroin market and government policies. If the Taliban remain in power, or a new Afghan government is formed, the changes will affect the heroin market in Europe to a certain degree. In the heroin market, the degree of change is dependent on many socioeconomic forces such as law enforcement, corruption, and proximity to Afghanistan. An econometric model that examines the degree of these socioeconomic effects has not been applied to the heroin trade in Afghanistan before. This research uses a two-stage least squares econometric model to reveal the supply and demand of heroin in 36 different countries from the Middle East to Western Europe in 2008. An application of the two-stage least squares model to the heroin market in Europe will attempt to predict the socioeconomic consequences of Afghanistan opium production.

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Complex human diseases are a major challenge for biological research. The goal of my research is to develop effective methods for biostatistics in order to create more opportunities for the prevention and cure of human diseases. This dissertation proposes statistical technologies that have the ability of being adapted to sequencing data in family-based designs, and that account for joint effects as well as gene-gene and gene-environment interactions in the GWA studies. The framework includes statistical methods for rare and common variant association studies. Although next-generation DNA sequencing technologies have made rare variant association studies feasible, the development of powerful statistical methods for rare variant association studies is still underway. Chapter 2 demonstrates two adaptive weighting methods for rare variant association studies based on family data for quantitative traits. The results show that both proposed methods are robust to population stratification, robust to the direction and magnitude of the effects of causal variants, and more powerful than the methods using weights suggested by Madsen and Browning [2009]. In Chapter 3, I extended the previously proposed test for Testing the effect of an Optimally Weighted combination of variants (TOW) [Sha et al., 2012] for unrelated individuals to TOW &ndash F, TOW for Family &ndash based design. Simulation results show that TOW &ndash F can control for population stratification in wide range of population structures including spatially structured populations, is robust to the directions of effect of causal variants, and is relatively robust to percentage of neutral variants. In GWA studies, this dissertation consists of a two &ndash locus joint effect analysis and a two-stage approach accounting for gene &ndash gene and gene &ndash environment interaction. Chapter 4 proposes a novel two &ndash stage approach, which is promising to identify joint effects, especially for monotonic models. The proposed approach outperforms a single &ndash marker method and a regular two &ndash stage analysis based on the two &ndash locus genotypic test. In Chapter 5, I proposed a gene &ndash based two &ndash stage approach to identify gene &ndash gene and gene &ndash environment interactions in GWA studies which can include rare variants. The two &ndash stage approach is applied to the GAW 17 dataset to identify the interaction between KDR gene and smoking status.

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The microalga Haematococcus pluvialis was cultivated in MES-volvox medium at various light intensities and CO2 concentrations. It was found that CO2 concentrations of 10 and 15%, in combination with high irradiance at initial pH =6.7, accelerate astaxanthin accumulation in H. pluvialis cells but obstruct cell growth. The purpose of this research study was to devise a one-stage process consisting of the simultaneous cultivation of H. pluvialis and astaxanthin production using high light intensity and high CO2 concentration. This could be achieved at 200 µE/m2s and 15% CO2 in growth medium at initial pH = 4.3. Compared to the traditional two-stage H. pluvialis cultivation system, this one-step process can save up to 8-9 days of astaxanthin production time. The astaxanthin content in H. pluvialis cells induced with high light intensity only or with a combination of high light intensity and high CO2 concentration had comparable astaxanthin content; 94 and 97 mg/g dry biomass, respectively. However, it was extremely low in nitrate-free medium at high irradiance alone or combined with high CO2 concentration, with an average value of 4 mg/g dry biomass. Cell density was 40% less in cultures under discontinuous illumination compared to continuous illumination. This process could serve as a microalgal CO2 mitigation system after further understanding of the CO2 fixation ability of H. pluvialis has been gained.

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The purpose of this investigation is to determine the effect of the factors listed previously by conducting a series of tests that will indicate the ex­tent to which the purification is influenced by time, temperature, zinc oust size, zinc dust quantity, iron concentration, two stage precipitation, and aeration.

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OBJECTIVES: This retrospective study reports on histologic and histomorphometric observations performed on human biopsies harvested from sites augmented exclusively by biphasic calcium phosphate [BCP: hydroxyapatite (HA)/ tricalcium phosphate (TCP) 60/40] and healed for a minimum of 6 months. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Five patients benefited from three augmentation regimens (i.e.: one-stage lateral augmentation; two-stage lateral augmentation; and two-stage sinus grafting). In all patients, a degradable collagen membrane served as a cell-occlusive barrier. Core biopsies were obtained from lateral as from crestal aspects 6-10 months after augmentation surgeries. For histologic and histomorphometric evaluations, the non-decalcified tissue processing was performed. RESULTS: The histological examination of 11 biopsies showed graft particles frequently being bridged by the new bone, and a close contact between the graft particles and newly formed bone was seen in all samples. The mean percentages of newly formed bone, soft tissue compartment, and graft material were 38.8% (+/-5.89%), 41.75% (+/-6.08%), and 19.63% (+/-4.85%), respectively. Regarding bone-to-graft contact values, the percentage of bone coverage of graft particles for all biopsies ranged from 27.83% to 80.17%. The mean percentage of bone coverage was 55.39% (+/-13.03%). CONCLUSIONS: Data from the present study demonstrated osteoconductivity scores for the BCP material (HA/TCP 60/40) in patients resembling those previously shown for grafting materials of xenogenic and alloplastic origin.

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To compare the effects on body composition and body weight of tibolone vs two different sequential oral or transdermal oestrogen-progestogen hormone replacement therapies versus no therapy.