Does repairing a cleft lip neonatally have any effect on the longer-term attractiveness of the repair?

Objective: To determine whether attractiveness and success of surgical outcome differ according to the timing of cleft lip repair. Design: Three experiments were conducted: (1) surgeons rated postoperative medical photographs of infants having either neonatal or 3-month lip repair; (2) lay panelists rated the same photographs; (3) lay panelists rated dynamic video displays of the infants made at 12 months. Normal comparison infants were also rated. The order of stimuli was randomized, and panelists were blind to timing of lip repair and the purposes of the study. Setting: Four U.K. regional centers for cleft lip and palate. Participants: Infants with isolated clefts of the lip, with and without palate. Intervention: Early lip repair was conducted at median age 4 days (inter-quartile range [IQR] = 4), and late repair at 104 days (IQR = 57). Main Outcome Measures: Ratings of surgical outcome (Experiment 1 only) and attractiveness (all experiments) on 5-point Likert scales. Results: In Experiment 1 success of surgical outcome was comparable for early and late repair groups (difference = -0.08; 95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.43 to 0.28; p = .66). In all three experiments, attractiveness ratings were comparable for the two groups. Differences were, respectively, 0.10 (95% CI = -2.3 to 0.44, p = .54); -0.11 (95% CI = -0.42 to -0.19, p = .54); and 0.08 (95% CI = -0.11 to 0.28, p =.41). Normal infants were rated more attractive than index infants (difference = 0.38; 95% CI = 0.24 to 0.52; p < .001). Conclusion: Neonatal repair for cleft of the lip confers no advantage over repair at 3 months in terms of perceived infant attractiveness or success of surgical outcome.

Family treatment of child anxiety: outcomes, limitations and future directions

Anxiety of childhood is a common and serious condition. The past decade has seen an increase in treatment-focussed research, with recent trials tending to give greater attention to parents in the treatment process. This review examines the efficacy of family-based cognitive behaviour therapy and attempts to delineate some of the factors that might have an impact on its efficacy. The choice and timing of outcome measure, age and gender of the child, level of parental anxiety, severity and type of child anxiety and treatment format and content are scrutinised. The main conclusions are necessarily tentative, but it seems likely that Family Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (FCBT) is superior to no treatment, and, for some outcome measures, also superior to Child Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (CCBT). Where FCBT is successful, the results are consistently maintained at follow-up. It appears that where a parent is anxious, and this is not addressed, outcomes are less good. However, for children of anxious parents, FCBT is probably more effective than CCBT. What is most clear is that large, well-designed studies, examining these factors alone and in combination, are now needed.

Detection of neural correlates of self-paced motor activity using empirical mode decomposition phase locking analysis

Transient episodes of synchronisation of neuronal activity in particular frequency ranges are thought to underlie cognition. Empirical mode decomposition phase locking (EMDPL) analysis is a method for determining the frequency and timing of phase synchrony that is adaptive to intrinsic oscillations within data, alleviating the need for arbitrary bandpass filter cut-off selection. It is extended here to address the choice of reference electrode and removal of spurious synchrony resulting from volume conduction. Spline Laplacian transformation and independent component analysis (ICA) are performed as pre-processing steps, and preservation of phase synchrony between synthetic signals. combined using a simple forward model, is demonstrated. The method is contrasted with use of bandpass filtering following the same preprocessing steps, and filter cut-offs are shown to influence synchrony detection markedly. Furthermore, an approach to the assessment of multiple EEG trials using the method is introduced, and the assessment of statistical significance of phase locking episodes is extended to render it adaptive to local phase synchrony levels. EMDPL is validated in the analysis of real EEG data, during finger tapping. The time course of event-related (de)synchronisation (ERD/ERS) is shown to differ from that of longer range phase locking episodes, implying different roles for these different types of synchronisation. It is suggested that the increase in phase locking which occurs just prior to movement, coinciding with a reduction in power (or ERD) may result from selection of the neural assembly relevant to the particular movement. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the ability of a numerical weather prediction model to forecast tracer concentrations during ETEX 2

In this paper the meteorological processes responsible for transporting tracer during the second ETEX (European Tracer EXperiment) release are determined using the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM). The UM predicted distribution of tracer is also compared with observations from the ETEX campaign. The dominant meteorological process is a warm conveyor belt which transports large amounts of tracer away from the surface up to a height of 4 km over a 36 h period. Convection is also an important process, transporting tracer to heights of up to 8 km. Potential sources of error when using an operational numerical weather prediction model to forecast air quality are also investigated. These potential sources of error include model dynamics, model resolution and model physics. In the UM a semi-Lagrangian monotonic advection scheme is used with cubic polynomial interpolation. This can predict unrealistic negative values of tracer which are subsequently set to zero, and hence results in an overprediction of tracer concentrations. In order to conserve mass in the UM tracer simulations it was necessary to include a flux corrected transport method. Model resolution can also affect the accuracy of predicted tracer distributions. Low resolution simulations (50 km grid length) were unable to resolve a change in wind direction observed during ETEX 2, this led to an error in the transport direction and hence an error in tracer distribution. High resolution simulations (12 km grid length) captured the change in wind direction and hence produced a tracer distribution that compared better with the observations. The representation of convective mixing was found to have a large effect on the vertical transport of tracer. Turning off the convective mixing parameterisation in the UM significantly reduced the vertical transport of tracer. Finally, air quality forecasts were found to be sensitive to the timing of synoptic scale features. Errors in the position of the cold front relative to the tracer release location of only 1 h resulted in changes in the predicted tracer concentrations that were of the same order of magnitude as the absolute tracer concentrations.

Nocturnal ranging behaviour of urban hedgehogs, Erinaceus europaeus, in relation to risk and reward

Urban areas have both positive and negative influences on wildlife. For terrestrial mammals, one of the principle problems is the risk associated with moving through the environment whilst foraging. In this study, we examined nocturnal patterns of movement of urban-dwelling hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) in relation to (i) the risks posed by predators and motor vehicles and (ii) nightly weather patterns. Hedgehogs preferentially utilised the gardens of semi-detached and terraced houses. However, females, but not males, avoided the larger back gardens of detached houses, which contain more of the habitat features selected by badgers. This difference in the avoidance of predation risk is probably associated with sex differences in breeding behaviour. Differences in nightly movement patterns were consistent with strategies associated with mating behaviour and the accumulation of fat reserves for hibernation. Hedgehogs also exhibited differences in behaviour associated with the risks posed by humans; they avoided actively foraging near roads and road verges, but did not avoid crossing roads per se. They were, however, significantly more active after midnight when there was a marked reduction in vehicle and foot traffic. In particular, responses to increased temperature, which is associated with increased abundance of invertebrate prey, were only observed after midnight. This variation in the timing of bouts of activity would reduce the risks associated with human activities. There were also profound differences in both area ranged and activity with chronological year which warrant further investigation.

3D-Var assimilation of insect-derived Doppler radar radial winds in convective cases using a high resolution model

The assimilation of Doppler radar radial winds for high resolution NWP may improve short term forecasts of convective weather. Using insects as the radar target, it is possible to provide wind observations during convective development. This study aims to explore the potential of these new observations, with three case studies. Radial winds from insects detected by 4 operational weather radars were assimilated using 3D-Var into a 1.5 km resolution version of the Met Office Unified Model, using a southern UK domain and no convective parameterization. The effect on the analysis wind was small, with changes in direction and speed up to 45° and 2 m s−1 respectively. The forecast precipitation was perturbed in space and time but not substantially modified. Radial wind observations from insects show the potential to provide small corrections to the location and timing of showers but not to completely relocate convergence lines. Overall, quantitative analysis indicated the observation impact in the three case studies was small and neutral. However, the small sample size and possible ground clutter contamination issues preclude unequivocal impact estimation. The study shows the potential positive impact of insect winds; future operational systems using dual polarization radars which are better able to discriminate between insects and clutter returns should provided a much greater impact on forecasts.

Progressive erosion of genetic and epigenetic variation in callus-derived cocoa (Theobroma cacao) plants

Relatively little is known about the timing of genetic and epigenetic forms of somaclonal variation arising from callus growth. We surveyed for both types of change in cocoa (Theobroma cacao) plants regenerated from calli of various ages, and also between tissues from the source trees. For genetic change, we used 15 single sequence repeat (SSR) markers from four source trees and from 233 regenerated plants. For epigenetic change, we used 386 methylation-sensitive amplified polymorphism (MSAP) markers on leaf and explant (staminode) DNA from two source trees and on leaf DNA from 114 regenerants. Genetic variation within source trees was limited to one slippage mutation in one leaf. Regenerants were far more variable, with 35% exhibiting at least one mutation. Genetic variation initially accumulated with culture age but subsequently declined. MSAP (epigenetic) profiles diverged between leaf and staminode samples from source trees. Multivariate analysis revealed that leaves from regenerants occupied intermediate eigenspace between leaves and staminodes of source plants but became progressively more similar to source tree leaves with culture age. Statistical analysis confirmed this rather counterintuitive finding that leaves of ‘late regenerants’ exhibited significantly less genetic and epigenetic divergence from source leaves than those exposed to short periods of callus growth.

Sensitivity analysis of a cyanobacterial growth and movement model under two different flow regimes

Bloom-forming and toxin-producing cyanobacteria remain a persistent nuisance across the world. Modelling cyanobacterial behaviour in freshwaters is an important tool for understanding their population dynamics and predicting the location and timing of the bloom events in lakes, reservoirs and rivers. A new deterministic–mathematical model was developed, which simulates the growth and movement of cyanobacterial blooms in river systems. The model focuses on the mathematical description of the bloom formation, vertical migration and lateral transport of colonies within river environments by taking into account the major factors that affect the cyanobacterial bloom formation in rivers including light, nutrients and temperature. A parameter sensitivity analysis using a one-at-a-time approach was carried out. There were two objectives of the sensitivity analysis presented in this paper: to identify the key parameters controlling the growth and movement patterns of cyanobacteria and to provide a means for model validation. The result of the analysis suggested that maximum growth rate and day length period were the most significant parameters in determining the population growth and colony depth, respectively.

Markers of intestinally-derived lipoproteins: application to studies of altered diet and meal fatty acid compositions

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The atherogenic potential of dietary derived lipids, chylomicrons (CM) and their remnants (CMr) is now becoming more widely recognised. To investigate factors effecting levels of CM and CMr and their importance in coronary heart disease risk it is essential to use a specific method of quantification. Two studies were carried out to investigate: (i) effects of increased daily intake of long chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid (LC n-3 PUFA), and (ii) effects of increasing meal monounsaturated fatty acid (MUFA) content on the postprandial response of intestinally-derived lipoproteins. The contribution of the intestinally-derived lipoproteins to total lipaemia was assessed by triacylglycerol-rich lipoprotein (TRL) apolipoprotein B-48 (apo B-48) and retinyl ester (RE) concentrations. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a randomised controlled crossover trial (placebo vs LC n-3 PUFA) a mean daily intake of 1.4 g/day of LC n-3 PUFA failed to reduce fasting and postprandial triacylglycerol (TAG) response in 9 healthy male volunteers. Although the pattern and nature of the apo B-48 response was consistent with the TAG response following the two diets, the postprandial RE response differed on the LC n-3 PUFA diet with a lower early RE response and a delayed and more marked increase in RE in the late postprandial period compared with the control diet, but the differences did not reach levels of statistical significance. In the meal study there was no effect of MUFA/SFA content on the total lipaemic response to the meals nor on the contribution of intestinally derived lipoproteins evaluated as TAG, apo B-48 and RE responses in the TRL fraction. In both studies, the RE and apo B-48 measurements provided broadly similar information with respect to lack of effects of dietary or meal fatty acid composition and the presence of single or multiple peak responses. However the apo B-48 and RE measurements differed with respect to the timing of their peak response times, with a delayed RE peak, relalive to apo B-48, of approximately 2-3 hours for the LC n-3 PUFA diet (p = 0.002) study and 1-1.5 hours for the meal MUFA/SFA study. CONCLUSIONS: It was concluded that there are limitations of using RE as a specific CM marker, apo B-48 quantitation was found to be a more appropriate method for CM and CMr quantitation. However it was still considered of value to measure RE as it provided additional information regarding the incorporation of other constituents into the CM particle.

A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM) and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM). Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale as well as climatic and development conditions. These include the Liard (Canada), Mekong (SE Asia), Okavango (SW Africa), Rio Grande (Brazil), Xiangu (China) and Harper's Brook (UK). A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09) is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for each catchment. The CHMs typically simulate water resources impacts based on a more explicit representation of catchment water resources than that available from the GHM, and the CHMs include river routing. Simulations of average annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5) and low (Q95) monthly runoff under baseline (1961-1990) and climate change scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response of each hydrological model to (1) prescribed increases in global mean temperature from the HadCM3 climate model and (2)a prescribed increase in global-mean temperature of 2oC for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model and structural uncertainty. We find that differences in projected changes of mean annual runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial for a given GCM, and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low flow. However, they are relatively small in comparison to the range of projections across the seven GCMs. Hence, for the six catchments and seven GCMs we considered, climate model structural uncertainty is greater than the uncertainty associated with the type of hydrological model applied. Moreover, shifts in the seasonal cycle of runoff with climate change are presented similarly by both hydrological models, although for some catchments the monthly timing of high and low flows differs.This implies that for studies that seek to quantify and assess the role of climate model uncertainty on catchment-scale runoff, it may be equally as feasible to apply a GHM as it is to apply a CHM, especially when climate modelling uncertainty across the range of available GCMs is as large as it currently is. Whilst the GHM is able to represent the broad climate change signal that is represented by the CHMs, we find, however, that for some catchments there are differences between GHMs and CHMs in mean annual runoff due to differences in potential evaporation estimation methods, in the representation of the seasonality of runoff, and in the magnitude of changes in extreme monthly runoff, all of which have implications for future water management issues.

An examination of the complementary volume–volatility information theories

The volume–volatility relationship during the dissemination stages of information flow is examined by analyzing various theories relating volume and volatility as complementary rather than competing models. The mixture of distributions hypothesis, sequential arrival of information hypothesis, the dispersion of beliefs hypothesis, and the noise trader hypothesis all add to the understanding of how volume and volatility interact for different types of futures traders. An integrated picture of the volume–volatility relationship is provided by investigating the dynamic linear and nonlinear associations between volatility and the volume of informed (institutional) and uninformed (the general public) traders. In particular, the trading behavior explanation for the persistence of futures volatility, the effect of the timing of private information arrival, and the response of institutional traders to excess noise trading risk is examined

Spatial and temporal effects of free-air CO2 enrichment (POPFACE) on leaf growth, cell expansion and cell production in a closed canopy of poplar

Leaf expansion in the fast-growing tree,Populus × euramericana was stimulated by elevated [CO2] in a closed-canopy forest plantation, exposed using a free air CO2 enrichment technique enabling long-term experimentation in field conditions. The effects of elevated [CO2] over time were characterized and related to the leaf plastochron index (LPI), and showed that leaf expansion was stimulated at very early (LPI, 0–3) and late (LPI, 6–8) stages in development. Early and late effects of elevated [CO2] were largely the result of increased cell expansion and increased cell production, respectively. Spatial effects of elevated [CO2] were also marked and increased final leaf size resulted from an effect on leaf area, but not leaf length, demonstrating changed leaf shape in response to [CO2]. Leaves exhibited a basipetal gradient of leaf development, investigated by defining seven interveinal areas, with growth ceasing first at the leaf tip. Interestingly, and in contrast to other reports, no spatial differences in epidermal cell size were apparent across the lamina, whereas a clear basipetal gradient in cell production rate was found. These data suggest that the rate and timing of cell production was more important in determining leaf shape, given the constant cell size across the leaf lamina. The effect of elevated [CO2] imposed on this developmental gradient suggested that leaf cell production continued longer in elevated [CO2] and that basal increases in cell production rate were also more important than altered cell expansion for increased final leaf size and altered leaf shape in elevated [CO2].

The elasticity of demand is about occupancy, not prices: building European demand curves based on occupancy elasticity

The peak congestion of the European grid may create significant impacts on system costs because of the need for higher marginal cost generation, higher cost system balancing and increasing grid reinforcement investment. The use of time of use rates, incentives, real time pricing and other programmes, usually defined as Demand Side Management (DSM), could bring about significant reductions in prices, limit carbon emissions from dirty power plants, and improve the integration of renewable sources of energy. Unlike previous studies on elasticity of residential electricity demand under flat tariffs, the aim of this study is not to investigate the known relatively inelastic relationship between demand and prices. Rather, the aim is to assess how occupancy levels vary in different European countries. This reflects the reality of demand loads, which are predominantly determined by the timing of human activities (e.g. travelling to work, taking children to school) rather than prices. To this end, two types of occupancy elasticity are estimated: baseline occupancy elasticity and peak occupancy elasticity. These represent the intrinsic elasticity associated with human activities of single residential end-users in 15 European countries. This study makes use of occupancy time-series data from the Harmonised European Time Use Survey database to build European occupancy curves; identify peak occupancy periods; draw time use demand curves for video and TV watching activity; and estimate national occupancy elasticity levels of single-occupant households. Findings on occupancy elasticities provide an indication of possible DSM strategies based on occupancy levels and not prices.

Solar signal propagation: the role of gravity waves and stratospheric sudden warmings

We use a troposphere‐stratosphere model of intermediate complexity to study the atmospheric response to an idealized solar forcing in the subtropical upper stratosphere during Northern Hemisphere (NH) early winter. We investigate two conditions that could influence poleward and downward propagation of the response: (1) the representation of gravity wave effects and (2) the presence/absence of stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs). We also investigate how the perturbation influences the timing and frequency of SSWs. Differences in the poleward and downward propagation of the response within the stratosphere are found depending on whether Rayleigh friction (RF) or a gravity wave scheme (GWS) is used to represent gravity wave effects. These differences are likely related to differences in planetary wave activity in the GWS and RF versions, as planetary wave redistribution plays an important role in the downward and poleward propagation of stratospheric signals. There is also remarkable sensitivity in the tropospheric response to the representation of the gravity wave effects. It is most realistic for GWS. Further, tropospheric responses are systematically different dependent on the absence/presence of SSWs. When only years with SSWs are examined, the tropospheric signal appears to have descended from the stratosphere, while the signal in the troposphere appears disconnected from the stratosphere when years with SSWs are excluded. Different troposphere‐stratosphere coupling mechanisms therefore appear to be dominant for years with and without SSWs. The forcing does not affect the timing of SSWs, but does result in a higher occurrence frequency throughout NH winter. Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation effects were not included.

A cognitive and psycholinguistic investigation of neologisms

Background: Jargon aphasia with neologisms (i.e., novel nonword utterances) is a challenging language disorder that lacks a definitive theoretical description as well as clear treatment recommendations (Marshall, 2006). Aim: The aims of this two part investigation were to determine the source of neologisms in an individual with jargon aphasia (FF), to identify potential facilitatory semantic and/or phonological cuing effects in picture naming, and to determine whether the timing of the cues relative to the target picture mediated the cuing advantage. Methods and Procedures: FF’s underlying linguistic deficits were determined using several cognitive and linguistic tests. A series of computerized naming experiments using a modified version of the 175 item-Philadelphia Naming Test (Roach, Schwartz, Martin, Grewal, & Brecher, 1996) manipulated the cue type (semantic versus phonological) and relatedness (related versus unrelated). In a follow-up experiment, the relative timing of phonological cues was manipulated to test the effect of timing on the cuing advantage. The accuracy of naming responses and error patterns were analyzed. Outcome and Results: FF’s performance on the linguistic and cognitive test battery revealed a severe naming impairment with relatively spared word and nonword repetition, auditory comprehension of words and monitoring, and fairly well preserved semantic abilities. This performance profile was used to evaluate various explanations for neologisms including a loss of phonological codes, monitoring failure, and impairments in semantic system. The primary locus of his deficit appears to involve the connection between semantics to phonology, specifically, when word production involves accessing the phonological forms following semantic access. FF showed a significant cuing advantage only for phonological cues in picture naming, particularly when the cue preceded or coincided with the onset of the target picture. Conclusions: When integrated with previous findings, the results from this study suggest that the core deficit of this and at least some other jargon aphasics is in the connection from semantics to phonology. The facilitative advantage of phonological cues could potentially be exploited in future clinical and research studies to test the effectiveness of these cues for enhancing naming performance in individuals like FF.