Some new three-level orthogonal main effects plans robust to model uncertainty

In this paper, we list some new orthogonal main effects plans for three-level designs for 4, 5 and 6 factors in IS runs and compare them with designs obtained from the existing L-18 orthogonal array. We show that these new designs have better projection properties and can provide better parameter estimates for a range of possible models. Additionally, we study designs in other smaller run-sizes when there are insufficient resources to perform an 18-run experiment. Plans for three-level designs for 4, 5 and 6 factors in 13 to 17 runs axe given. We show that the best designs here are efficient and deserve strong consideration in many practical situations.

Nickel(II) complexes of terdentate or symmetrical tetradentate Schiff bases: Evidence of the influence of the counter anions in the hydrolysis of the imine bond in Schiff base complexes

Two sets of ligands, set-1 and set-2, have been prepared by mixing 1,3-diaminopentane and carbonyl compounds (2-acetylpyridine or pyridine-2-carboxaldehyde) in 1:1 and 1:2 ratios, respectively, and employed for the synthesis of complexes with Ni(II) perchlorate, Ni(II) thiocyanate and Ni(II) chloride. Ni(II) perchlorate yields the complexes having general formula [NiL2](ClO4)(2)(L = L-1 [N-3-(1-pyridin-2-yl-ethylidene)-pentane-1,3-diamine] for complex 1 or L-2[N-3-pyridin-2-ylmethylene-pentane-1,3-diamine] for complex 2) in which the Schiff bases are monocondensed terdentate, whereas Ni(II) thiocyanate results in the formation of tetradentate Schiff base complexes, [NiL(SCN)(2)] (L = L-3[N,N'-bis-(1-pyridin-2- yl-ethylidine)-pentane-1,3-diamine] for complex 3 or L-4 [N,N'-bis(pyridin-2-ylmethyline)-pentane-1,3- diamine] for complex 4) irrespective of the sets of ligands used. Complexes 5 {[NiL3(N-3)(2)]} and 6 {[NiL4(N-3)(2)]} are prepared by adding sodium azide to the methanol solution of complexes 1 and 2. Addition of Ni(II) chloride to the set-1 or set-2 ligands produces [Ni(pn)(2)]Cl-2, 7, as the major product, where pn = 1,3-diaminopentane. Formation of the complexes has been explained by the activation of the imine bond by the counter anion and thereby favouring the hydrolysis of the Schiff base. All the complexes have been characterized by elemental analyses and spectral data. Single crystal X-ray diffraction studies con. firm the structures of three representative members, 1, 4 and 7; all of them have distorted octahedral geometry around Ni(II). The bis-complex of terdentate ligands, 1, is the mer isomer, and complexes 4 and 7 possess trans geometry. (C) 2008 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Coordination behavior of symmetrical hexadentate O2N2S2-donor Schiff bases toward zinc (II): synthesis, characterization, and crystal structure

Two series of zinc(II) complexes of two Schiff bases (H2L1 and H2L2) formulated as [Zn(HL1/HL2)]ClO4 (1a and 1b) and [Zn(L1/L2)] (2a and 2b), where H2L1 = 1,8-bis(salicylideneamino)-3,6-dithiaoctane and H2L2 = 1,9-bis(salicylideneamino)-3,7-dithianonane, have been prepared and isolated in pure form by changing the chemical environment. Elemental, spectral, and other physicochemical results characterize the complexes. A single crystal X-ray diffraction study confirms the structure of [Zn(HL1)]ClO4 (1a). In 1a, zinc(II) has a distorted octahedral environment with a ZnO2N2S2 chromophore.

A simple, coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in climate predictions

A simple and coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in multi-model climate ensembles is presented. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) is used to decompose a measure of total variation additively into scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty and internal variability. This approach requires fewer assumptions than existing methods and can be easily used to quantify uncertainty related to model-scenario interaction - the contribution to model uncertainty arising from the variation across scenarios of model deviations from the ensemble mean. Uncertainty in global mean surface air temperature is quantified as a function of lead time for a subset of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 ensemble and results largely agree with those published by other authors: scenario uncertainty dominates beyond 2050 and internal variability remains approximately constant over the 21st century. Both elements of model uncertainty, due to scenario-independent and scenario-dependent deviations from the ensemble mean, are found to increase with time. Estimates of model deviations that arise as by-products of the framework reveal significant differences between models that could lead to a deeper understanding of the sources of uncertainty in multi-model ensembles. For example, three models are shown diverging pattern over the 21st century, while another model exhibits an unusually large variation among its scenario-dependent deviations.

Synthesis and characterization of Cu(II) complexes of tetradentate and tridentate symmetrical Schiff base ligands involving o-phenelenediamine, salicylaldehyde and diacetylmonoxime

A mononuclear complex [CuL] (1), a binuclear complex [Cu2LCl2(H2O)] (2), a trinuclear complex [Cu3L2](ClO4)(2) (3) involving o-phenylenediamine and salicylaldehyde and another binuclear complex of a tridentate ligand (H2L1) [Cu2L (2) (1) ](CH3COO)(2) (4) involving o-phenylenediamine and diacetylmonoxime have been synthesized, where H2L = N,N'-o-phenylenebis(salicylideneimine) and H2L1 = 3-(2-aminophenylimino)butan-2-one oxime. All the complexes have been characterized by elemental analyses, spectral and magnetic studies. The binuclear complex (2) was characterized structurally where the two Cu(II) centers are connected via an oxygen-bridged arrangement.

Uncertainty in the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response in UK catchments

This paper assesses the relationship between amount of climate forcing – as indexed by global mean temperature change – and hydrological response in a sample of UK catchments. It constructs climate scenarios representing different changes in global mean temperature from an ensemble of 21 climate models assessed in the IPCC AR4. The results show a considerable range in impact between the 21 climate models, with – for example - change in summer runoff at a 2oC increase in global mean temperature varying between -40% and +20%. There is evidence of clustering in the results, particularly in projected changes in summer runoff and indicators of low flows, implying that the ensemble mean is not an appropriate generalised indicator of impact, and that the standard deviation of responses does not adequately characterise uncertainty. The uncertainty in hydrological impact is therefore best characterised by considering the shape of the distribution of responses across multiple climate scenarios. For some climate model patterns, and some catchments, there is also evidence that linear climate change forcings produce non-linear hydrological impacts. For most variables and catchments, the effects of climate change are apparent above the effects of natural multi-decadal variability with an increase in global mean temperature above 1oC, but there are differences between catchments. Based on the scenarios represented in the ensemble, the effect of climate change in northern upland catchments will be seen soonest in indicators of high flows, but in southern catchments effects will be apparent soonest in measures of summer and low flows. The uncertainty in response between different climate model patterns is considerably greater than the range due to uncertainty in hydrological model parameterisation.

Uncertainty in climate change impacts on basin-scale freshwater resources – preface to the special issue: the QUEST-GSI methodology and synthesis of results

This paper presents a preface to this Special Issue on the results of the QUEST-GSI (Global Scale Impacts) project on climate change impacts on catchment-scale water resources. A detailed description of the unified methodology, subsequently used in all studies in this issue, is provided. The project method involved running simulations of catchment-scale hydrology using a unified set of past and future climate scenarios, to enable a consistent analysis of the climate impacts around the globe. These scenarios include "policy-relevant" prescribed warming scenarios. This is followed by a synthesis of the key findings. Overall, the studies indicate that in most basins the models project substantial changes to river flow, beyond that observed in the historical record, but that in many cases there is considerable uncertainty in the magnitude and sign of the projected changes. The implications of this for adaptation activities are discussed.

Measuring the response of macroeconomic uncertainty to shocks

Recent research documents the importance of uncertainty in determining macroeconomic outcomes, but little is known about the transmission of uncertainty across such outcomes. This paper examines the response of uncertainty about inflation and output growth to shocks documenting statistically significant size and sign bias and spillover effects. Uncertainty about inflation is a determinant of output uncertainty, whereas higher growth volatility tends to raise inflation volatility. Both inflation and growth volatility respond asymmetrically to positive and negative shocks. Negative growth and inflation shocks lead to higher and more persistent uncertainty than shocks of equal magnitude but opposite sign.

Decision theory and real estate development: a note on uncertainty

Real estate development appraisal is a quantification of future expectations. The appraisal model relies upon the valuer/developer having an understanding of the future in terms of the future marketability of the completed development and the future cost of development. In some cases the developer has some degree of control over the possible variation in the variables, as with the cost of construction through the choice of specification. However, other variables, such as the sale price of the final product, are totally dependent upon the vagaries of the market at the completion date. To try to address the risk of a different outcome to the one expected (modelled) the developer will often carry out a sensitivity analysis on the development. However, traditional sensitivity analysis has generally only looked at the best and worst scenarios and has focused on the anticipated or expected outcomes. This does not take into account uncertainty and the range of outcomes that can happen. A fuller analysis should include examination of the uncertainties in each of the components of the appraisal and account for the appropriate distributions of the variables. Similarly, as many of the variables in the model are not independent, the variables need to be correlated. This requires a standardised approach and we suggest that the use of a generic forecasting software package, in this case Crystal Ball, allows the analyst to work with an existing development appraisal model set up in Excel (or other spreadsheet) and to work with a predetermined set of probability distributions. Without a full knowledge of risk, developers are unable to determine the anticipated level of return that should be sought to compensate for the risk. This model allows the user a better understanding of the possible outcomes for the development. Ultimately the final decision will be made relative to current expectations and current business constraints, but by assessing the upside and downside risks more appropriately, the decision maker should be better placed to make a more informed and “better”.