Vitamin D and mortality: meta-analysis of individual participant data from a large consortium of cohort studies from Europe and the United States

Objective: To investigate the association between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations (25(OH)D) and mortality in a large consortium of cohort studies paying particular attention to potential age, sex, season, and country differences.

Design: Meta-analysis of individual participant data of eight prospective cohort studies from Europe and the US.

Setting: General population.

Participants: 26 018 men and women aged 50-79 years

Main outcome measures: All-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality.

Results: 25(OH)D concentrations varied strongly by season (higher in summer), country (higher in US and northern Europe) and sex (higher in men), but no consistent trend with age was observed. During follow-up, 6695 study participants died, among whom 2624 died of cardiovascular diseases and 2227 died of cancer. For each cohort and analysis, 25(OH)D quintiles were defined with cohort and subgroup specific cut-off values. Comparing bottom versus top quintiles resulted in a pooled risk ratio of 1.57 (95% CI 1.36 to 1.81) for all-cause mortality. Risk ratios for cardiovascular mortality were similar in magnitude to that for all-cause mortality in subjects both with and without a history of cardiovascular disease at baseline. With respect to cancer mortality, an association was only observed among subjects with a history of cancer (risk ratio, 1.70 (1.00 to 2.88)). Analyses using all quintiles suggest curvilinear, inverse, dose-response curves for the aforementioned relationships. No strong age, sex, season, or country specific differences were detected. Heterogeneity was low in most meta-analyses.

Conclusions: Despite levels of 25(OH)D strongly varying with country, sex, and season, the association between 25(OH)D level and all-cause and cause-specific mortality was remarkably consistent. Results from a long term randomised controlled trial addressing longevity are being awaited before vitamin D supplementation can be recommended in most individuals with low 25(OH)D levels.

Interacting supernovae from photoionization-confined shells around red supergiant stars

Betelgeuse, a nearby red supergiant, is a runaway star with a powerful stellar wind that drives a bow shock into its surroundings. This picture has been challenged by the discovery of a dense and almost static shell that is three times closer to the star than the bow shock and has been decelerated by some external force. The two physically distinct structures cannot both be formed by the hydrodynamic interaction of the wind with the interstellar medium. Here we report that a model in which Betelgeuse's wind is photoionized by radiation from external sources can explain the static shell without requiring a new understanding of the bow shock. Pressure from the photoionized wind generates a standing shock in the neutral part of the wind and forms an almost static, photoionization-confined shell. Other red supergiants should have significantly more massive shells than Betelgeuse, because the photoionization-confined shell traps up to 35 per cent of all mass lost during the red supergiant phase, confining this gas close to the star until it explodes. After the supernova explosion, massive shells dramatically affect the supernova lightcurve, providing a natural explanation for the many supernovae that have signatures of circumstellar interaction.

Predation in the marine intertidal amphipod Echinogammarus marinus Leach: implications of inter- and intra-individual variation

Studies of competition, predator–prey dynamics and food webs typically consider conspecifics as equal, however, individuals from the same population that are seemingly identical can show considerable variation with regards to a number of processes. Such phenomena may be demonstrated in terms of diet, and the quantities and types of resources that are consumed are commonly considered. The marine amphipod Echinogammarus marinus, a recently demonstrated predator on intertidal rocky shores, has been shown to consume a wide range of food types but it is unknown how this may vary between individuals. Here, we investigated the variation that occurs both among and within individuals of a population of E. marinus with respect to the mean numbers consumed of a common prey item, the isopod Jaera nordmanni. First, by comparing the length of starvation times, used as a proxy for hunger level, individuals maintained without food for up to 24 h consumed significantly less prey during feeding trials than those starved for 48 h and longer. The degree of inter-individual variation within each starvation period was also found to differ, with greater variation among individuals starved for shorter periods of time than those starved for longer time periods. Secondly, we tested whether individual amphipods tracked over time consumed consistently similar numbers of prey or whether they showed intra-individual variation, and if so, to what degree. We found that the numbers of prey consumed per individual could be predicted in the short-term between consecutive feeding trials, however over the long-term this relationship broke down. These results are discussed with respect to potential physiological and behavioural mechanisms, as well as the implications that such variation may have for stability of prey populations in the field.

Resilience and Burnout in Child protection social work: Individual and organisational themes from a systematic literature review

Child protection social work is acknowledged as a very stressful occupation, with high turnover and poor retention of staff being a major concern. This paper highlights themes that emerged from findings of sixty-five articles that were included as part of a systematic literature review. The review focused on the evaluation of research findings, which considered individual and organisational factors associated with resilience or burnout in child protection social work staff. The results identified a range of individual and organisational themes for staff in child protection social work. Nine themes were identified in total. These are categorised under ‘Individual’ and ‘Organisational’ themes. Themes categorised as individual included personal history of maltreatment, training and preparation for child welfare, coping, secondary traumatic stress, compassion fatigue and compassion satisfaction. Those classified as organisational included workload, social support and supervision, organisational culture and climate, organisational and professional commitment, and job satisfaction or dissatisfaction. The range of factors is discussed with recommendations and areas for future research are highlighted.

Transitional justice, demobilization, and peacebuilding amid political violence: Examining individual preferences in the Caribbean coast of Colombia

The conventional wisdom in the transitional justice literature is that there is no one-size-fits-all approach. This article suggests that this may also be true within a given state. The current paper reports on quantitative and qualitative data from 184 participants in a survey conducted in the Caribbean coast of Colombia. Results suggest widespread support for transitional justice mechanisms – such as perpetrator accountability, public acknowledgement and structural change – but dissatisfaction with national-level initiatives, specifically the 2005 Justice and Peace Law. Yet, despite a distrust of the national government and protracted conflict, individuals report social trust, community cohesion and reliance on local government institutions. These attitudes and behaviours suggest that decentralised transitional justice mechanisms may be more effective in meeting victims' needs. Moreover, analyses indicate that individual preferences are influenced by community factors, such as the presence of demobilised paramilitaries, which can be addressed through more localised approaches to promote peacebuilding. The paper concludes with best practices derived from the findings.

‘All illness is personal to that individual’: a qualitative study of patients’ perspectives on treatment adherence in bronchiectasis

Background: Adherence to treatment is low in bronchiectasis and is associated with poorer health outcomes. Factors affecting adherence decisions have not been explored in patients with bronchiectasis. 

Objective: We aimed to explore patients' perspectives on adherence, factors affecting adherence decision making and to develop a conceptual model explaining this decision-making process in adults with bronchiectasis. 

Methods: Adults with bronchiectasis participated in one-to-one semi-structured interviews. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed independently by two researchers using thematic analysis. Data from core themes were extracted, categorized into factors affecting adherence decision making and used to develop the conceptual model. 

Results: Participants' beliefs about treatment, the practical aspects of managing treatment, their trust in health-care professionals and acceptance of disease and treatment were important aspects of treatment adherence. The conceptual model demonstrated that adherence decisions were influenced by participants' individual balance of barriers and motivating factors (treatment-related, disease-related, health-care-related, personal and social factors). 

Conclusion: Adherence decision-making in bronchiectasis is complex, but there is the potential to enhance adherence by understanding patients' specific barriers and motivators to adherence and using this to tailor adherence strategies to individual patients and treatments. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Does chemical composition of individual Scots pine trees determine the biodiversity of their associated ground vegetation?

Despite plant secondary metabolites being major determinants of species interactions and ecosystem processes, their role in the maintenance of biodiversity has received little attention. In order to investigate the relationship between chemical and biological diversity in a natural ecosystem, we considered the impact of chemical diversity in individual Scots pine trees (Pinus sylvestris) on species richness of associated ground vegetation. Scots pine trees show substantial genetically determined constitutive variation between individuals in concentrations of a group of secondary metabolites, the monoterpenes. When the monoterpenes of particular trees were assessed individually, there was no relationship with species richness of associated ground flora. However, the chemical diversity of monoterpenes of individual trees was significantly positively associated with the species richness of the ground vegetation beneath each tree, mainly the result of an effect among the non-woody vascular plants. This correlation suggests that the chemical diversity of the ecosystem dominant species has an important role in shaping the biodiversity of the associated plant community. The extent and significance of this effect, and its underlying processes require further investigation.

Detecting the progenitors of core collapse supernovae

The masses and the evolutionary states of the progenitors of core-collapse supernovae are not well constrained by direct observations. Stellar evolution theory generally predicts that massive stars with initial masses less than about 30M_sol should undergo core-collapse when they are cool M-type supergiants. However the only two detections of a SN progenitor before explosion are SN1987A and SN1993J, and neither of these was an M-type supergiant. Attempting to identify the progenitors of supernovae is a difficult task, as precisely predicting the time of explosion of a massive star is impossible for obvious reasons. There are several different types of supernovae which have different spectral and photometric evolution, and how exactly these are related to the evolutionary states of the progenitor stars is not currently known. I will describe a novel project which may allow the direct identification of core-collapse supernovae progenitors on pre-explosion images of resolved, nearby galaxies. This project is now possible with the excellent image archives maintained by several facilities and will be enhanced by the new initiatives to create Virtual Observatories, the earliest of which ASTROVIRTEL is already producing results.

Giving structure to the biofilm matrix: an overview of individual strategies and emerging common themes

Biofilms are communities of microbial cells that underpin diverse processes including sewage bioremediation, plant growth promotion, chronic infections and industrial biofouling. The cells resident in the biofilm are encased within a self-produced exopolymeric matrix that commonly comprises lipids, proteins that frequently exhibit amyloid-like properties, eDNA and exopolysaccharides. This matrix fulfils a variety of functions for the community, from providing structural rigidity and protection from the external environment to controlling gene regulation and nutrient adsorption. Critical to the development of novel strategies to control biofilm infections, or the capability to capitalize on the power of biofilm formation for industrial and biotechnological uses, is an in-depth knowledge of the biofilm matrix. This is with respect to the structure of the individual components, the nature of the interactions between the molecules and the three-dimensional spatial organization. We highlight recent advances in the understanding of the structural and functional role that carbohydrates and proteins play within the biofilm matrix to provide three-dimensional architectural integrity and functionality to the biofilm community. We highlight, where relevant, experimental techniques that are allowing the boundaries of our understanding of the biofilm matrix to be extended using Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Vibrio cholerae, and Bacillus subtilis as exemplars.

Preferred Reporting Items for a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Individual Participant Data The PRISMA-IPD Statement

IMPORTANCE Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of individual participant data (IPD) aim to collect, check, and reanalyze individual-level data from all studies addressing a particular research question and are therefore considered a gold standard approach to evidence synthesis. They are likely to be used with increasing frequency as current initiatives to share clinical trial data gain momentum and may be particularly important in reviewing controversial therapeutic areas.

OBJECTIVE To develop PRISMA-IPD as a stand-alone extension to the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) Statement, tailored to the specific requirements of reporting systematic reviews and meta-analyses of IPD. Although developed primarily for reviews of randomized trials, many items will apply in other contexts, including reviews of diagnosis and prognosis.

DESIGN Development of PRISMA-IPD followed the EQUATOR Network framework guidance and used the existing standard PRISMA Statement as a starting point to draft additional relevant material. A web-based survey informed discussion at an international workshop that included researchers, clinicians, methodologists experienced in conducting systematic reviews and meta-analyses of IPD, and journal editors. The statement was drafted and iterative refinements were made by the project, advisory, and development groups. The PRISMA-IPD Development Group reached agreement on the PRISMA-IPD checklist and flow diagram by consensus.

FINDINGS Compared with standard PRISMA, the PRISMA-IPD checklist includes 3 new items that address (1) methods of checking the integrity of the IPD (such as pattern of randomization, data consistency, baseline imbalance, and missing data), (2) reporting any important issues that emerge, and (3) exploring variation (such as whether certain types of individual benefit more from the intervention than others). A further additional item was created by reorganization of standard PRISMA items relating to interpreting results. Wording was modified in 23 items to reflect the IPD approach.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE PRISMA-IPD provides guidelines for reporting systematic reviews and meta-analyses of IPD.

Observational Constraints on the Progenitors of Core-Collapse Supernovae: The Case for Missing High-Mass Stars

Over the last 15 years, the supernova community has endeavoured to directly identify progenitor stars for core-collapse supernovae discovered in nearby galaxies. These precursors are often visible as resolved stars in high-resolution images from space-and ground-based telescopes. The discovery rate of progenitor stars is limited by the local supernova rate and the availability and depth of archive images of galaxies, with 18 detections of precursor objects and 27 upper limits. This review compiles these results (from 1999 to 2013) in a distance-limited sample and discusses the implications of the findings. The vast majority of the detections of progenitor stars are of type II-P, II-L, or IIb with one type Ib progenitor system detected and many more upper limits for progenitors of Ibc supernovae (14 in all). The data for these 45 supernovae progenitors illustrate a remarkable deficit of high-luminosity stars above an apparent limit of log L/L-circle dot similar or equal to 5.1 dex. For a typical Salpeter initial mass function, one would expect to have found 13 high-luminosity and high-mass progenitors by now. There is, possibly, only one object in this time-and volume-limited sample that is unambiguously high-mass (the progenitor of SN2009ip) although the nature of that supernovae is still debated. The possible biases due to the influence of circumstellar dust, the luminosity analysis, and sample selection methods are reviewed. It does not appear likely that these can explain the missing high-mass progenitor stars. This review concludes that the community's work to date shows that the observed populations of supernovae in the local Universe are not, on the whole, produced by high-mass (M greater than or similar to 18 M-circle dot) stars. Theoretical explosions of model stars also predict that black hole formation and failed supernovae tend to occur above an initial mass of M similar or equal to 18 M-circle dot. The models also suggest there is no simple single mass division for neutron star or black-hole formation and that there are islands of explodability for stars in the 8-120 M-circle dot range. The observational constraints are quite consistent with the bulk of stars above M similar or equal to 18 M-circle dot collapsing to form black holes with no visible supernovae.

Impact of smoking and smoking cessation on cardiovascular events and mortality among older adults: meta-analysis of individual participant data from prospective cohort studies of the CHANCES consortium

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of smoking and smoking cessation on cardiovascular mortality, acute coronary events, and stroke events in people aged 60 and older, and to calculate and report risk advancement periods for cardiovascular mortality in addition to traditional epidemiological relative risk measures.

DESIGN: Individual participant meta-analysis using data from 25 cohorts participating in the CHANCES consortium. Data were harmonised, analysed separately employing Cox proportional hazard regression models, and combined by meta-analysis.

RESULTS: Overall, 503,905 participants aged 60 and older were included in this study, of whom 37,952 died from cardiovascular disease. Random effects meta-analysis of the association of smoking status with cardiovascular mortality yielded a summary hazard ratio of 2.07 (95% CI 1.82 to 2.36) for current smokers and 1.37 (1.25 to 1.49) for former smokers compared with never smokers. Corresponding summary estimates for risk advancement periods were 5.50 years (4.25 to 6.75) for current smokers and 2.16 years (1.38 to 2.39) for former smokers. The excess risk in smokers increased with cigarette consumption in a dose-response manner, and decreased continuously with time since smoking cessation in former smokers. Relative risk estimates for acute coronary events and for stroke events were somewhat lower than for cardiovascular mortality, but patterns were similar.

CONCLUSIONS: Our study corroborates and expands evidence from previous studies in showing that smoking is a strong independent risk factor of cardiovascular events and mortality even at older age, advancing cardiovascular mortality by more than five years, and demonstrating that smoking cessation in these age groups is still beneficial in reducing the excess risk.