Predicting market direction with hidden Markov models

This paper develops the model of Bicego, Grosso, and Otranto (2008) and applies Hidden Markov Models to predict market direction. The paper draws an analogy between financial markets and speech recognition, seeking inspiration from the latter to solve common issues in quantitative investing. Whereas previous works focus mostly on very complex modifications of the original hidden markov model algorithm, the current paper provides an innovative methodology by drawing inspiration from thoroughly tested, yet simple, speech recognition methodologies. By grouping returns into sequences, Hidden Markov Models can then predict market direction the same way they are used to identify phonemes in speech recognition. The model proves highly successful in identifying market direction but fails to consistently identify whether a trend is in place. All in all, the current paper seeks to bridge the gap between speech recognition and quantitative finance and, even though the model is not fully successful, several refinements are suggested and the room for improvement is significant.

EFFECT – Efficient finite element code

The theme of this dissertation is the finite element method applied to mechanical structures. A new finite element program is developed that, besides executing different types of structural analysis, also allows the calculation of the derivatives of structural performances using the continuum method of design sensitivities analysis, with the purpose of allowing, in combination with the mathematical programming algorithms found in the commercial software MATLAB, to solve structural optimization problems. The program is called EFFECT – Efficient Finite Element Code. The object-oriented programming paradigm and specifically the C ++ programming language are used for program development. The main objective of this dissertation is to design EFFECT so that it can constitute, in this stage of development, the foundation for a program with analysis capacities similar to other open source finite element programs. In this first stage, 6 elements are implemented for linear analysis: 2-dimensional truss (Truss2D), 3-dimensional truss (Truss3D), 2-dimensional beam (Beam2D), 3-dimensional beam (Beam3D), triangular shell element (Shell3Node) and quadrilateral shell element (Shell4Node). The shell elements combine two distinct elements, one for simulating the membrane behavior and the other to simulate the plate bending behavior. The non-linear analysis capability is also developed, combining the corotational formulation with the Newton-Raphson iterative method, but at this stage is only avaiable to solve problems modeled with Beam2D elements subject to large displacements and rotations, called nonlinear geometric problems. The design sensitivity analysis capability is implemented in two elements, Truss2D and Beam2D, where are included the procedures and the analytic expressions for calculating derivatives of displacements, stress and volume performances with respect to 5 different design variables types. Finally, a set of test examples were created to validate the accuracy and consistency of the result obtained from EFFECT, by comparing them with results published in the literature or obtained with the ANSYS commercial finite element code.

A public transport bus assignment problem: parallel metaheuristics assessment

Combinatorial Optimization Problems occur in a wide variety of contexts and generally are NP-hard problems. At a corporate level solving this problems is of great importance since they contribute to the optimization of operational costs. In this thesis we propose to solve the Public Transport Bus Assignment problem considering an heterogeneous fleet and line exchanges, a variant of the Multi-Depot Vehicle Scheduling Problem in which additional constraints are enforced to model a real life scenario. The number of constraints involved and the large number of variables makes impracticable solving to optimality using complete search techniques. Therefore, we explore metaheuristics, that sacrifice optimality to produce solutions in feasible time. More concretely, we focus on the development of algorithms based on a sophisticated metaheuristic, Ant-Colony Optimization (ACO), which is based on a stochastic learning mechanism. For complex problems with a considerable number of constraints, sophisticated metaheuristics may fail to produce quality solutions in a reasonable amount of time. Thus, we developed parallel shared-memory (SM) synchronous ACO algorithms, however, synchronism originates the straggler problem. Therefore, we proposed three SM asynchronous algorithms that break the original algorithm semantics and differ on the degree of concurrency allowed while manipulating the learned information. Our results show that our sequential ACO algorithms produced better solutions than a Restarts metaheuristic, the ACO algorithms were able to learn and better solutions were achieved by increasing the amount of cooperation (number of search agents). Regarding parallel algorithms, our asynchronous ACO algorithms outperformed synchronous ones in terms of speedup and solution quality, achieving speedups of 17.6x. The cooperation scheme imposed by asynchronism also achieved a better learning rate than the original one.

Machine diagnosis based on artificial immune systems

Nowadays, many of the manufactory and industrial system has a diagnosis system on top of it, responsible for ensuring the lifetime of the system itself. It achieves this by performing both diagnosis and error recovery procedures in real production time, on each of the individual parts of the system. There are many paradigms currently being used for diagnosis. However, they still fail to answer all the requirements imposed by the enterprises making it necessary for a different approach to take place. This happens mostly on the error recovery paradigms since the great diversity that is nowadays present in the industrial environment makes it highly unlikely for every single error to be fixed under a real time, no production stop, perspective. This work proposes a still relatively unknown paradigm to manufactory. The Artificial Immune Systems (AIS), which relies on bio-inspired algorithms, comes as a valid alternative to the ones currently being used. The proposed work is a multi-agent architecture that establishes the Artificial Immune Systems, based on bio-inspired algorithms. The main goal of this architecture is to solve for a resolution to the error currently detected by the system. The proposed architecture was tested using two different simulation environment, each meant to prove different points of views, using different tests. These tests will determine if, as the research suggests, this paradigm is a promising alternative for the industrial environment. It will also define what should be done to improve the current architecture and if it should be applied in a decentralised system.

Improvement of a photoautotrophic chassis robustness for synthetic biology applications

Cyanobacteria are photoautotrophic microorganisms with great potential for the biotechnological industry due to their low nutrient requirements, photosynthetic capacities and metabolic plasticity. In biotechnology, the energy sector is one of the main targets for their utilization, especially to produce the so called third generation biofuels, which are regarded as one of the best replacements for petroleum-based fuels. Although, several issues could be solved, others arise from the use of cyanobacteria, namely the need for high amounts of freshwater and contamination/predation by other microorganisms that affect cultivation efficiencies. The cultivation of cyanobacteria in seawater could solve this issue, since it has a very stable and rich chemical composition. Among cyanobacteria, the model microorganism Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 is one of the most studied with its genome fully sequenced and genomic, transcriptomic and proteomic data available to better predict its phenotypic behaviors/characteristics. Despite suitable for genetic engineering and implementation as a microbial cell factory, Synechocystis’ growth rate is negatively affected by increasing salinity levels. Therefore, it is important to improve. To achieve this, several strategies involving the constitutive overexpression of the native genes encoding the proteins involved in the production of the compatible solute glucosylglycerol were implemented, following synthetic biology principles. A preliminary transcription analysis of selected mutants revealed that the assembled synthetic devices are functional at the transcriptional level. However, under different salinities, the mutants did not show improved robustness to salinity in terms of growth, compared with the wild-type. Nevertheless, some mutants carrying synthetic devices appear to have a better physiological response under seawater’s NaCl concentration than in 0% (w/v) NaCl.

Critical analysis of old and new vaccines against N. meningitidis serogroup C, considering the meningococcal disease epidemiology in Brazil

Worldwide, the impact of meningococcal disease is substantial, and the potential for the introduction and spread of more virulent strains of N. meningitidis or strains with increased resistance to current antibiotics causes concern, making prevention essential. OBJECTIVES: Review the indications for meningococcal disease vaccines, considering the epidemiological status in Brazil. METHODS: A critical literature review on this issue using the Medline and Lilacs databases. RESULTS: In Brazil, MenB and MenC were the most important serogroups identified in the 1990s. Polysaccharide vaccines available against those serogroups can offer only limited protection for infants, the group at highest risk for meningococcal disease. Additionally, polysaccharide vaccines may induce a hypo-responsive state to MenC. New meningococcal C conjugate vaccines could partially solve these problems, but it is unlikely that in the next few years a vaccine against MenB that can promote good protection against multiple strains of MenB responsible for endemic and epidemic diseases will become available. CONCLUSIONS: In order to make the best decision about recommendations on immunization practices, better quality surveillance data are required. In Brazil, MenC was responsible for about 2,000 cases per year during the last 10 years. New conjugate vaccines against MenC are very effective and immunogenic, and they should be recommended, especially for children less than 5 years old. Polysaccharide vaccines should be indicated only in epidemic situations and for high-risk groups. Until new vaccines against MenC and MenB are available for routine immunization programs, the most important measure for controlling meningococcal disease is early diagnosis of these infections in order to treat patients and to offer chemoprophylaxis to contacts.

Professores realistas: mais eficazes e otimistas

A indisciplina na sala de aula prejudica o ensino e a aprendizagem sendo uma das principais causas do mal-estar dos professores, roubando-lhes energia e tempo conduzindo, muitos deles, à exaustão física e emocional e apresenta-se como um sério problema quer para professores principiantes, quer para professores experientes. A análise do ensino na perspetiva interpessoal possibilita uma nova visão sobre o ambiente de aprendizagem, nomeadamente no que se refere à relação professor-aluno. Nesta perspetiva, o enfoque dirige-se para a análise das perceções dos alunos sobre o comportamento do professor e o impacto que o mesmo tem sobre os alunos. Além de que, ao considerar-se a turma como um sistema deve ter-se em conta que o comportamento não pode ser visto como uma característica da pessoa mas, sim, como uma característica do sistema formado por aqueles que estão envolvidos na interação comunicacional. Analisar as interações comunicacionais à luz da pragmática da comunicação e dos seus cinco axiomas apresenta-se como um poderoso quadro clarificador de muitos dos comportamentos ditos disruptivos, possibilitando aos professores um “novo olhar” sobre o seu papel enquanto gestores da sala de aula. A formação realista de professores apresenta-se como uma estratégia com efeitos muito positivos uma vez que possibilita e ajuda-os a compreenderem o processo de circularidade característico da turma vista como um sistema. Por outro lado, permite evidenciar a impossibilidade dos professores de solucionarem os problemas disciplinares culpabilizando os alunos. Dito de outro modo, a formação realista conduz os professores a um (re) equacionar das suas práticas encorajando-os a selecionarem um comportamento interpessoal mais adequado. No 1º e 3º período letivo, os professores participantes (N= 15) responderam ao Questionário de Interação do Professor (Q.I.P.) e ao Questionário do Otimismo Académico (Q.O.A.) composto por três subescalas: Autoeficácia, Confiança nos alunos e famílias e Ênfase académica. Paralelamente, foram gravadas em suporte vídeo quatro aulas de cada professor, referentes a duas turmas selecionadas previamente pelos mesmos. Após a observação das suas aulas refletiram por escrito aquilo que observaram. No 2º período, participaram numa ação de formação intitulada “Ecologia da sala de aula: relacionamento interpessoal professor-aluno e a criação de ambientes de aprendizagem positivos” baseada no modelo realista de formação de professores. Desta formação resultou um conjunto de relatórios reflexivos que tiveram por objetivo desenvolver nos participantes a sua competência reflexiva, questionarem crenças tidas como inquestionáveis e otimizar a relação professor-aluno. A partir dos resultados obtidos pode afirmar-se que: 1) verificou-se um aumento no otimismo académico e no sentimento de autoeficácia; 2) observou-se um impacto nas conceções prévias, bem como no contexto organizacional.

Arts management

For the purpose of analyzing how did the considerable increase in the Portuguese tourism has influenced its cultural sector, this paper seeks to explore how has the company AntiFrame | Art Consulting replied to it. Arts Management: Contemporary Art Guides. Alibi – The Portuguese Case reviews some Arts Management literature whilst a multi-method approach is used. A market research was conducted, in which existing contemporary guides were analyzed as well as interviews made to tourists in Lisbon. Findings show that there is a flaw in the Portuguese contemporary art market, which the project Alibi aims to solve. Metrics on how the project’s results should be monitored, as part of a follow-up phase, were included, as well as limitations.

The global shopper & brands communication at airports

This project aims to illuminate two perspectives on travel retail. On the one hand, it describes the main character of the shopping scenario at airports, namely the Global Shopper. It covers the entire profile of the referred character, the main nationalities that represent him and the current shopping trends of the passenger. Also estimates of the booming nationalities and the future purchasing trends are accurately presented. On the other hand, the travel retail market is analyzed from the airport brands’ perspective. It is described what is currently done in terms of brands communication in the top ten airports around the world and the expected future market retail trends. To accurately explore the Global Shopper behavior and purchasing preferences, a market research was conducted with a sample of 128 respondents, male and female, from different nationalities, age groups, occupation and education backgrounds. The essay tests hypothesis regarding the relevance of several variables in the purchasing process of the Global Shopper in order to understand the most pleasant way to approach consumers in travel retail. The main variables studied concern the reasons to shop at airports, to whom the passenger shops, the preferred category and brand of purchase, feelings while shopping abroad, impulsive buying behavior, brand loyalty, the use of mobile devices in the shopping process, brands communication at airports, pre-ordering online and the attitude towards self-service stores. Some findings were in accordance with expectations, while others were a surprise and may produce valuable recommendations for future travel retail practices. 4 The main relevant results concern two areas, namely pre-ordering online and self-service stores. Results showed a certain stress about not having enough time to choose between the various offerings in travel retail, as well as difficulty in dealing with crowed stores. However, pre-ordering online was not common, which would be an initiative that could solve the discomfort at airport’s stores. Moreover, self-service would promote efficiency in stores allowing passengers to save time if they already know how to go through the shopping process by themselves. Another possible recommendation concerns differentiating the strategy in travel retail for the two genders. Some differences were found in the categories bought by male and female, as well as to how brands should shape their approach concerning the demands of each gender.

Proving a market for a startup befor scaling using the hypothesis-driven entrepreneurship process

The year is 2015 and the startup and tech business ecosphere has never seen more activity. In New York City alone, the tech startup industry is on track to amass $8 billion dollars in total funding – the highest in 7 years (CB Insights, 2015). According to the Kauffman Index of Entrepreneurship (2015), this figure represents just 20% of the total funding in the United States. Thanks to platforms that link entrepreneurs with investors, there are simply more funding opportunities than ever, and funding can be initiated in a variety of ways (angel investors, venture capital firms, crowdfunding). And yet, in spite of all this, according to Forbes Magazine (2015), nine of ten startups will fail. Because of the unpredictable nature of the modern tech industry, it is difficult to pinpoint exactly why 90% of startups fail – but the general consensus amongst top tech executives is that “startups make products that no one wants” (Fortune, 2014). In 2011, author Eric Ries wrote a book called The Lean Startup in attempts to solve this all-too-familiar problem. It was in this book where he developed the framework for The Hypothesis-Driven Entrepreneurship Process, an iterative process that aims at proving a market before actually launching a product. Ries discusses concepts such as the Minimum Variable Product, the smallest set of activities necessary to disprove a hypothesis (or business model characteristic). Ries encourages acting briefly and often: if you are to fail, then fail fast. In today’s fast-moving economy, an entrepreneur cannot afford to waste his own time, nor his customer’s time. The purpose of this thesis is to conduct an in-depth of analysis of Hypothesis-Driven Entrepreneurship Process, in order to test market viability of a reallife startup idea, ShowMeAround. This analysis will follow the scientific Lean Startup approach; for the purpose of developing a functional business model and business plan. The objective is to conclude with an investment-ready startup idea, backed by rigorous entrepreneurial study.

How to increase reach efficiency and effectiveness of MEO’s digital marketing campaigns?

Field lab: Business project

Operation modes of battery chargers for electric vehicles in the future smart grids

This paper presents an on-board bidirectional battery charger for Electric Vehicles (EVs), which operates in three different modes: Grid-to- Vehicle (G2V), Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G), and Vehicle-to-Home (V2H). Through these three operation modes, using bidirectional communications based on Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), it will be possible to exchange data between the EV driver and the future smart grids. This collaboration with the smart grids will strengthen the collective awareness systems, contributing to solve and organize issues related with energy resources and power grids. This paper presents the preliminary studies that results from a PhD work related with bidirectional battery chargers for EVs. Thus, in this paper is described the topology of the on-board bidirectional battery charger and the control algorithms for the three operation modes. To validate the topology it was developed a laboratory prototype, and were obtained experimental results for the three operation modes.

Otimização do estudo inicial do oboé: a procura da motivação

Relatório de estágio de mestrado em Ensino de Música

As potencialidades pedagógicas da WebQuest no ensino e aprendizagem da Geologia: um estudo com alunos do 11.º ano no tema "Principais etapas de formação das rochas sedimentares"

Relatório de estágio de mestrado em Ensino de Biologia e Geologia no 3.º Ciclo do Ensino Básico e no Ensino Secundário

A multi-criteria decision support system for a routing problem in waste collection

Autor proof