Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The historiographic Hispano-Americanism: Spain and America in the perspective of Ricardo Levene and Rafael Altamira

This article analyzes how Latin American history was interpreted by two eminent historians, the Argentine Ricardo Levene and the Spaniard Rafael Altamira. It discusses how their paths crossed in the advocacy of Hispano-Americanism as a political project and interpretive horizon of Iberian and American history.

The design of planar gradient coils. Part I: A winding path correction method

In this work a new approach for designing planar gradient coils is outlined for the use in an existing MRI apparatus. A technique that allows for gradient field corrections inside the diameter-sensitive volume is deliberated. These corrections are brought about by making changes to the wire paths that constitute the coil windings, and hence, is called the path correction method. The existing well-known target held method is used to gauge the performance of a typical gradient coil. The gradient coil design methodology is demonstrated for planar openable gradient coils that can be inserted into an existing MRI apparatus. The path corrected gradient coil is compared to the coil obtained using the target field method. It is shown that using a wire path correction with optimized variables, winding patterns that can deliver high magnetic gradient field strengths and large imaging regions can be obtained.

A transformation toughening white cast iron

An experimental white cast iron with the unprecedented fracture tough ness of 40 MPa m(1/2) is currently being studied to determine the mechanisms of toughening. This paper reports the investigation of the role of strain-induced martensitic (SIM) transformation. The dendritic microconstituent in the toughened alloy consists primarily of retained austenite, with precipitated M(7)C(3) carbides and some martensite. Refrigeration experiments and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) were used to demonstrate, firstly, that this retained austenite has an ''effective'' sub-ambient M(S) temperature and, secondly, that SIM transformation can occur at ambient temperatures. Comparison between room temperature and elevated temperature K-Ic tests showed that the observed SIM produces a transformation toughening response in the alloy, contributing to, but not fully accounting for, its high tough ness. SIM as a mechanism for transformation toughening has not previously been reported for white cast irons. Microhardness traverses on crack paths and X-ray diffraction (XRD) on fracture surfaces confirmed the interpretation of the K-Ic experiments. Further DSC and quantitative XRD showed that, as heat-treatment temperature is varied, there is a correlation between fracture toughness and the volume fraction of unstable retained austenite.

A review of health effects of aircraft noise

Social surveys have established dose-response relationships between aircraft noise and annoyance, with a number of psychological symptoms being positively related to annoyance. Evidence that exposure to aircraft noise is associated with higher psychiatric hospital admission rates is mixed. Some evidence exists of an association between aircraft noise exposure and use of psychotropic medications. People with a pre-existing psychological or psychiatric condition may be more susceptible to the effects of exposure to aircraft noise. Aircraft noise can produce effects on electroencephalogram sleep patterns and cause wakefulness and difficulty in sleeping. Attendances at general practitioners, self-reported health problems and use of medications, have been associated with exposure to aircraft noise, but some findings are inconsistent. Some association between aircraft noise exposure and elevated mean blood pressure has been observed in cross-sectional studies of schoolchildren, but with little confirmation from cohort studies. There is no convincing evidence to suggest that all-cause or cause-specific mortality is increased by exposure to aircraft noise. There is no strong evidence that aircraft noise has significant perinatal effects. Using the World Health Organization definition of health, which includes positive mental and social wellbeing, aircraft noise is responsible for considerable ill-health. However, population-based studies have not found strong evidence that people living near or under aircraft flight paths suffer higher rates of clinical morbidity or mortality as a consequence of exposure to aircraft noise. A dearth of high quality studies in this area precludes drawing substantive conclusions.

Goal setting among adolescents: A comparison of delinquent, at risk, and not-at-risk youth

A series of studies was conducted to compare group differences in the goal orientations of delinquent, at-risk, and not-at-risk adolescents. An Importance of Goals Scale was developed by examining the item responses of 230 high school students and validated by administering the revised scale to 80 delinquent, 90 at-risk, and 90 not-at-risk adolescents. Results identified differences in the importance attributed to different goals by the 3 groups. Delinquent and at-risk adolescents attached significantly more importance to goals associated with developing a social image (e.g., delinquency, freedom-autonomy), whereas not-at-risk adolescents were more concerned with goals associated with an academic image (e.g., educational, interpersonal). Results are discussed in terms of their implications for school achievement, peer relations, and future life paths.

Effect of processing induced particle alignment on the fracture toughness and fracture behavior of multiphase dental ceramics

Objective. To investigate the processing induced particle alignment on fracture behavior of four multiphase dental ceramics (one porcelain, two glass-ceramics and a glass-infiltrated-alumina composite). Methods. Disks (empty set12mm x 1.1 mm-thick) and bars (3 mm x 4 mm x 20 mm) of each material were processed according to manufacturer instructions, machined and polished. Fracture toughness (K(IC)) was determined by the indentation strength method using 3-point bending and biaxial flexure fixtures for the fracture of bars and disks, respectively. Microstructural and fractographic analyses were performed with scanning electron microscopy, energy dispersive spectroscopy and X-ray diffraction. Results. The isotropic microstructure of the porcelain and the leucite-based glass-ceramic resulted in similar fracture toughness values regardless of the specimen geometry. On the other hand, materials containing second-phase particles with high aspect ratio (lithium disilicate glass-ceramic and glass-infiltrated-alumina composite) showed lower fracture toughness for disk specimens compared to bars. For the lithium disilicate glass-ceramic disks, it was demonstrated that the occurrence of particle alignment during the heat-pressing procedure resulted in an unfavorable pattern that created weak microstructural paths during the biaxial test. For the glass-infiltrated-alumina composite, the microstructural analysis showed that the large alumina platelets tended to align their large surfaces perpendicularly to the direction of particle deposition during slip casting of green preforms. Significance. The fracture toughness of dental ceramics with anisotropic microstructure should be determined by means of biaxial testing, since it results in lower values. (C) 2009 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Resource entitlements of indigenous minorities, their poverty and conservation of nature: Status of Australian Aborigines, comparisons with India's tribals, theory and changing policies globally

Considers the relevance of A.K. Sen’s theory of entitlements to the situation facing indigenous tribal people, its relationship to institutionalism, and to theories of property rights. Changing world views about the resource entitlements that should be given to local communities are outlined concentrating on the views expressed by the World Conservation Union (IUCN). These changing views have relevance for the resource entitlements of indigenous tribal communities and are reflected in differences in the policy approaches inherent in the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) and the more recent Convention on Biological Diversity. The latter embodies the view that provision of greater resource entitlements to local communities can provide economic incentives for nature conservation. There is a case for Indigenous Australians to be given greater rights to market the natural produce from their lands. Despite progress with land rights, they are not entitled to market much of the natural produce from their land. The socioeconomic status of Australian Aborigines is outlined. Their standard of living and their life expectancy are low by world standards and in comparison to other Australians. This is partly a result of historical events that have restricted their rights. These events are outlined briefly. Views differ about the appropriate development paths for Indigenous Australians and these are assessed. Concern on environmental and economic grounds is expressed about the view that the economic development of Australian Aboriginal communities would be accelerated by replacing their communal land titles by private land titles and encouraging Western-style agriculture and commercial development of their lands. Some comparisons are also made with the situation of India’s Tribals.

Influence of seaward boundary condition on contaminant transport in unconfined coastal aquifers

Contaminant transport in coastal aquifers is complicated partly due to the conditions at the seaward boundary including seawater intrusion and tidal variations of sea level. Their inclusion in modelling this system will be computationally expensive. Therefore, it will be instructive to investigate the consequence of simplifying the seaward boundary condition by neglecting the seawater density and tidal variations in numerical predictions of contaminant transport in this zone. This paper presents a comparison of numerical predictions for a simplified seaward boundary condition with experimental results for a corresponding realistic one including a saltwater interface and tidal variations. Different densities for contaminants are considered. The comparison suggests that the neglect of the seawater intrusion and tidal variations does not affect noticeably the overall migration rate of the plume before it reaches the saltwater interface. However, numerical prediction shows that a more dense contaminant travels further seaward and part of the solute mass exits under the sea if the seawater density is not included. This is not consistent with the experimental result, which shows that the contaminant travels upwards to the shoreline along the saltwater interface. Neglect of seawater density, therefore, will result in an underestimation of the exit rate of solute mass around the coastline and fictitious migration paths under the seabed. For a less dense contaminant, neglect of seawater density has little effect on numerical prediction of migration paths. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Cytological basis of photoresponsive behavior in a sponge larva

Ontogenetic changes in the photoresponse of larvae from the demosponge Reneira sp. were studied by analyzing the swimming paths of individual larvae exposed to diffuse white light. Larvae swam upward upon release from the adult, but were negatively phototactic until at least 12 hours after release. The larval photoreceptors are presumed to be a posterior ring of columnar monociliated epithelial cells that possess 120-mum-long cilia and pigment-filled protrusions. A sudden increase in light intensity caused these cilia to become rigidly straight. If the light intensity remained high, the cilia gradually bent over the pigmented vesicles in the adjacent cytoplasm, and thus covered one entire pole of the larva. The response was reversed upon a sudden decrease in light intensity. The ciliated cells were sensitive to changes in light intensity in larvae of all ages. This response is similar to the shadow response in tunicate larvae or the shading of the photoreceptor in Euglena and is postulated to allow the larvae to steer away from brighter light to darker areas, such as under coral rubble-the preferred site of the adult sponge on the reef flat. In the absence of a coordinating system in cellular sponges, the spatial organization and autonomous behavior of the pigmented posterior cells control the rapid responses to light shown by these larvae.

A critical appraisal of the intrinsic pancreatic angiotensin-generating system

The pancreas is a relative newcomer to the stable of tissues with an intrinsic angiotensin-generating system. The involvement of this system in pancreatic activity will be dependent on the angiotensin-generating paths present in the pancreas and their precise cellular location. Thus far, renin, angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE), angiotensin II and AT1 and AT2 receptors have been found. These are components of the "classical" renin-angiotensin system. But there is uncertainty as to their location and site of action. Furthermore, it is not known which, if any, alternative enzymes to renin and ACE are present, which angiotensins in addition to angiotensin II are generated and whether or not there are receptors to angiotensin IV and angiotensin-(1-7). Future research should focus on these aspects in order to provide a mechanistic basis to pancreatic physiological functions and to pathological conditions of clinical relevance.

Read-only-memory-based quantum computation: Experimental explorations using nuclear magnetic resonance and future prospects

Read-only-memory-based (ROM-based) quantum computation (QC) is an alternative to oracle-based QC. It has the advantages of being less magical, and being more suited to implementing space-efficient computation (i.e., computation using the minimum number of writable qubits). Here we consider a number of small (one- and two-qubit) quantum algorithms illustrating different aspects of ROM-based QC. They are: (a) a one-qubit algorithm to solve the Deutsch problem; (b) a one-qubit binary multiplication algorithm; (c) a two-qubit controlled binary multiplication algorithm; and (d) a two-qubit ROM-based version of the Deutsch-Jozsa algorithm. For each algorithm we present experimental verification using nuclear magnetic resonance ensemble QC. The average fidelities for the implementation were in the ranges 0.9-0.97 for the one-qubit algorithms, and 0.84-0.94 for the two-qubit algorithms. We conclude with a discussion of future prospects for ROM-based quantum computation. We propose a four-qubit algorithm, using Grover's iterate, for solving a miniature real-world problem relating to the lengths of paths in a network.

On the importance function in splitting simulation

The splitting method is a simulation technique for the estimation of very small probabilities. In this technique, the sample paths are split into multiple copies, at various stages in the simulation. Of vital importance to the efficiency of the method is the Importance Function (IF). This function governs the placement of the thresholds or surfaces at which the paths are split. We derive a characterisation of the optimal IF and show that for multi-dimensional models the natural choice for the IF is usually not optimal. We also show how nearly optimal splitting surfaces can be derived or simulated using reverse time analysis. Our numerical experiments illustrate that by using the optimal IF, one can obtain a significant improvement in simulation efficiency.

Investigation of electrical conductivity as a function of dopant-ion radius in the systems Zr0.75Ce0.08M0.17O1.92 (M=Nd, Sm, Gd, Dy, Ho, Y, Er, Yb, Sc)

Electrical conductivity versus dopant ionic radius studies in zirconia- and ceria-based, solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) electrolyte systems have shown that oxygen-ion conductivity is highest when the host and dopant ions are similar in size [J. Am. Ceram. Soc. 48 (1965) 286; Solid State Ionics 37 (1989) 67; Solid State Ionics 5 (1981) 547]. Under these conditions, it is thought that the conduction paths within the crystal lattice become less distorted [Solid State Ionics 8 (1983) 201]. In this study, binary ZrO2-M2O3 unit cells were expanded, via the partial substitution of Ce+4 for Zr+4 into the lattice, in an attempt to identify new, ternary, zirconia/ceria-based electrolyte systems with enhanced electrical conductivity. The compositions Zr0.75Ce0.08M0.17O1.92 (M = Nd, Sm, Gd, Dy, Ho, Y, Yb, Sc) were prepared using traditional solid state techniques. Bulk phase characterisation and precise lattice parameter measurements were performed with X-ray diffraction techniques. Four-probe DC conductivity measurements between 400 and 900 degreesC showed that the dopant-ion radius influenced electrical conductivity. The conductivity versus dopant-ion radius trends previously observed in zirconia-based, binary systems are clearly apparent in the ternary systems investigated in this study. The addition of ceria was found to have a negative influence on the electrical conductivity over the temperature range 400-900 degreesC. It is suggested that distortion of the oxygen-ion conduction path by the presence of the larger M+3 and Ce+4 species (relative to Zr+4) is the reason for the decreasing electrical conductivity as a function of increasing dopant size and ceria addition, respectively. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

High resolution 3-D imaging via multi-pass SAR

Spaceborne/airborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) systems provide high resolution two-dimensional terrain imagery. The paper proposes a technique for combining multiple SAR images, acquired on flight paths slightly separated in the elevation direction, to generate high resolution three-dimensional imagery. The technique could be viewed as an extension to interferometric SAR (InSAR) in that it generates topographic imagery with an additional dimension of resolution. The 3-D multi-pass SAR imaging system is typically characterised by a relatively short ambiguity length in the elevation direction. To minimise the associated ambiguities we exploit the relative phase information within the set of images to track the terrain landscape. The SAR images are then coherently combined, via a nonuniform DFT, over a narrow (in elevation) volume centred on the 'dominant' terrain ground plane. The paper includes a detailed description of the technique, background theory, including achievable resolution, and the results of an experimental study.