913 resultados para risk-based modeling
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This paper describes an interactive environment built entirely upon public domain or free software, intended to be used as the preprocessor of a finite element package for the simulation of three-dimensional electromagnetic problems.
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This paper presents a methodology based on geostatistical theory for quantifying the risks associated with heavy-metal contamination in the harbor area of Santana, Amapa State, Northern Brazil. In this area there were activities related to the commercialization of manganese ore from Serra do Navio. Manganese and arsenic concentrations at unsampled sites were estimated by postprocessing results from stochastic annealing simulations; the simulations were used to test different criteria for optimization, including average, median, and quantiles. For classifying areas as contaminated or uncontaminated, estimated quantiles based on functions of asymmetric loss showed better results than did estimates based on symmetric loss, such as the average or the median. The use of specific loss functions in the decision-making process can reduce the costs of remediation and health maintenance. The highest global health costs were observed for manganese. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved
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The conventional power flow method is considered to be inadequate to obtain the maximum loading point because of the singularity of Jacobian matrix. Continuation methods are efficient tools for solving this kind of problem since different parameterization schemes can be used to avoid such ill-conditioning problems. This paper presents the details of new schemes for the parameterization step of the continuation power flow method. The new parameterization options are based on physical parameters, namely, the total power losses (real and reactive), the power at the slack bus (real or reactive), the reactive power at generation buses, and transmission line power losses (real and reactive). The simulation results obtained with the new approach for the IEEE test systems (14, 30, 57, and 118 buses) are presented and discussed in the companion paper. The results show that the characteristics of the conventional method are not only preserved but also improved.
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Regulatory authorities in many countries, in order to maintain an acceptable balance between appropriate customer service qualities and costs, are introducing a performance-based regulation. These regulations impose penalties, and in some cases rewards, which introduce a component of financial risk to an electric power utility due to the uncertainty associated with preserving a specific level of system reliability. In Brazil, for instance, one of the reliability indices receiving special attention by the utilities is the Maximum Continuous Interruption Duration per customer (MCID). This paper describes a chronological Monte Carlo simulation approach to evaluate probability distributions of reliability indices, including the MCID, and the corresponding penalties. In order to get the desired efficiency, modern computational techniques are used for modeling (UML -Unified Modeling Language) as well as for programming (Object- Oriented Programming). Case studies on a simple distribution network and on real Brazilian distribution systems are presented and discussed. © Copyright KTH 2006.
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This paper presents a general modeling approach to investigate and to predict measurement errors in active energy meters both induction and electronic types. The measurement error modeling is based on Generalized Additive Model (GAM), Ridge Regression method and experimental results of meter provided by a measurement system. The measurement system provides a database of 26 pairs of test waveforms captured in a real electrical distribution system, with different load characteristics (industrial, commercial, agricultural, and residential), covering different harmonic distortions, and balanced and unbalanced voltage conditions. In order to illustrate the proposed approach, the measurement error models are discussed and several results, which are derived from experimental tests, are presented in the form of three-dimensional graphs, and generalized as error equations. © 2009 IEEE.
Digital filtering of oscillations intrinsic to transmission line modeling based on lumped parameters
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A correction procedure based on digital signal processing theory is proposed to smooth the numeric oscillations in electromagnetic transient simulation results from transmission line modeling based on an equivalent representation by lumped parameters. The proposed improvement to this well-known line representation is carried out with an Finite Impulse Response (FIR) digital filter used to exclude the high-frequency components associated with the spurious numeric oscillations. To prove the efficacy of this correction method, a well-established frequency-dependent line representation using state equations is modeled with an FIR filter included in the model. The results obtained from the state-space model with and without the FIR filtering are compared with the results simulated by a line model based on distributed parameters and inverse transforms. Finally, the line model integrated with the FIR filtering is also tested and validated based on simulations that include nonlinear and time-variable elements. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Low-grade chronic systemic inflammation is often associated with chronic non-communicable diseases, and its most frequently used marker, the C-reactive protein (CRP), has become an identifier of such diseases as well as an independent predictor for cardiovascular disorders and mortality. CRP is produced in response to pro-inflammatory signaling and to individual and behavioral factors, leading to pathological states. The aim of this study was to rank the predicting factors of high CRP concentrations in free-living adults from a community-based sample. We evaluated 522 adults (40-84 years old; 381 women) for anthropometric characteristics, dietary intake, clinical and physical tests, and blood analysis. Subjects were assigned to groups, according to CRP concentrations, as normal CRP (G1;<3.0 mg/L; n = 269), high CRP (G2; 3.0-6.0 mg/L; n = 139), and very high CRP (G3; >6.0 mg/dL; n = 116). Statistical comparison between groups used one-way ANOVA or Kruskal-Wallis tests, and prediction of altered values in increasing CRP was evaluated by proportional hazard models (odds ratio). CRP distribution was influenced by gender, body mass index, body and abdominal fatness, blood leukocytes, and neutrophil counts. The higher CRP group was discriminated by the above variables in addition to lower VO2max, serum metabolic syndrome components (triglycerides, glucose, and HDL cholesterol), higher insulin, homeostasis assessment of insulin resistance, uric acid, gamma-GT, and homocysteine. After adjustments, only fatness, blood leukocytes, and hyperglycemia remained as independent predictors for increased serum CRP concentrations. Intervention procedures to treat low-grade chronic inflammation in overweight women would mainly focus on restoring muscle mass and functions in addition to an antioxidant-rich diet. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.
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In businesses such as the software industry, which uses knowledge as a resource, activities are knowledge intensive, requiring constant adoption of new technologies and practices. Another feature of this environment is that the industry is particularly susceptible to failure; with this in mind, the objective of this research is to analyze the integration of Knowledge Management techniques into the activity of risk management as it applies to software development projects of micro and small Brazilian incubated technology-based firms. Research methods chosen were the Multiple Case Study. The main risk factor for managers and developers is that scope or goals are often unclear or misinterpreted. For risk management, firms have found that Knowledge Management techniques of conversion combination would be the most applicable for use; however, those most commonly used refer to the conversion mode as internalization.. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. APM and IPMA.
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A risks management, carried on in an effective way, leads the software development to success and may influence on the organization. The knowledge takes part of such a process as a way to help taking decisions. This research aimed to analyze the use of Knowledge Management techniques to the Risk Management in software projects development and the possible influence on the enterprise revenue. It had, as its main studying subject, Brazilian incubated and graduated software developing enterprises. The chosen research method was the Survey type. Multivariate statistical methods were used for the treatment and analysis of the obtained results, this way identifying the most significant factors, that is, enterprise's achievement constraining factors and those outcome achievement ones. Among the latter we highlight the knowledge methodology, the time of existence of the enterprise, the amount of employees and the knowledge externalization. The results encourage contributing actions to the increasing of financial revenue. © 2013 Springer-Verlag.
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This paper analyzes land use change in Rio Claro City and its surroundings, located in the southeastern state of Sao Paulo, in the period from 1988 to 1995, using air-borne digital imagery and a cellular automata model. The simulation experiment was carried out in the Dinamica EGO platform and the results revealed a constrained urban sprawl, resulting from both the densification of residential areas implemented in previous years and the economic recession that led to an internal financial crisis in Brazil during the early 1990s. The simulation outputs were validated using a multi-resolution procedure based on a fuzzy similarity index and showed a satisfactory fitness in relation to the historical reference data. © 2013 IEEE.
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Objective: Although previous studies have analyzed the association between cardiovascular risk factors and blood pressure in adolescents, few studies conducted in developing countries analyzed whether the aggregation of risk factors contributes to an increased risk of high blood pressure in adolescents. The objective of this study was to assess the association between cardiovascular risk factors (including general overweight, abdominal obesity, high consumption of foods rich in fats, and insufficient physical activity levels) and high blood pressure in adolescents.Methods: This study was carried out from 2007 to 2008 with 1021 adolescents (528 girls) from primary schools located in the city of Londrina- Brazil. Blood pressure was assessed using an oscillometric device. General overweight was obtained through body mass index, abdominal obesity was assessed using waist circumference, and the consumption of foods rich in fat and physical activity were assessed using a questionnaire. The sum of these risk factors was determined.Results: Adolescents with three or four aggregated risk factors were more likely to have higher values of systolic and diastolic blood pressure when compared with adolescents who did not have any cardiovascular risk factors (P = 0.001 for both). Logistic regression indicated that groups of adolescents with 2 (OR = 2.46 [1.11-5.42]; P = 0.026), 3 (OR = 4.97 [2.07-11.92]; P = 0.001) or 4 risk factors (OR = 6.79 [2.24-19.9]; P = 0.001) presented an increased likelihood of high blood pressure.Conclusions: The number of cardiovascular risk factors was found to be related to high blood pressure in adolescents. (C) 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Lifestyle is directly related to the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM-2), a risk dramatically elevated by obesity and inactivity. Several studies have verified that educational interventions can delay the onset of DM-2. Some of the interventions strategies utilized medication and diet, diet and/or physical exercise or the combination of diet and exercise, generally referred to a change in lifestyle. Despite the evidence that DM-2 can be preventive, there is still limited availability of effective prevention programs. DM-2 is considered an emerging public health problem as it is estimated that by the year of 2030 there will be about 366 million people with diabetes worldwide. DM2 remains a leading cause of cardiovascular disorders and many other complications. Our intent with this paper is to present researches and strategies (diet and physical activity interventions) that successfully improved plasma glucose control as a result of an effective lifestyle intervention program.
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A method is presented for estimating age-specific mortality based on minimal information: a model life table and an estimate of longevity. This approach uses expected patterns of mammalian survivorship to define a general model of age-specific mortality rates. One such model life table is based on data for northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus) using Siler’s (1979) 5-parameter competing risk model. Alternative model life tables are based on historical data for human females and on a published model for Old World monkeys. Survival rates for a marine mammal species are then calculated by scaling these models by the longevity of that species. By using a realistic model (instead of assuming constant mortality), one can see more easily the real biological limits to population growth. The mortality estimation procedure is illustrated with examples of spotted dolphins (Stenella attenuata) and harbor porpoise (Phocoena phocoena).