890 resultados para real option analysis


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In this paper, a real-time and in situ optical measuring system is reported to observe high-velocity deformations of samples subjected to impact loading. The system consists of a high-speed camera, a He-Ne laser, a frame grabber, a synchronization device and analysis software based on digital correlation theory. The optical system has been adapted to investigate the dynamic deformation field and its evolution in notched samples loaded by an split Hopkinson tension bar, with a resolution of 50 pin and an accuracy of 0.5 mum. Results obtained in experiments are discussed and compared with numerical simulations. It is shown that the measuring system is effective and valid.

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Imitating a real tooth and the periodontal supporting tissues, we have established a 2D finite element model and carried out a numerical analysis based on the inhomogeneous and anisotropic (IA) stress-strain relation and strength model of dentin proposed in the preceding Parts I and II, and the conventional homogeneous and isotropic (III) model, respectively. Quite a few cases of loadings for a non-defected and a defected tooth are considered. The numerical results show that the stress level predicted by the IA model is remarkably higher than that by the III model, revealing that the effect of the dentin tubules should be taken into a serious consideration from the viewpoint of biomechanics.

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This paper has been presented at the XIII Encuentros de Economía Aplicada, Sevilla, Spain, 2010.

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Published also as: Documento de Trabajo Banco de España 0504/2005.

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The main objective of this paper is to analyse the value of information contained in prices of options on the IBEX 35 index at the Spanish Stock Exchange Market. The forward looking information is extracted using implied risk-neutral density functions estimated by a mixture of two-lognormals and three alternative risk-adjustments: the classic power and exponential utility functions and a habit-based specification that allows for a counter-cyclical variation of risk aversion. Our results show that at four-week horizon we can reject the hypothesis that between October 1996 and March 2000 the risk-neutral densities provide accurate predictions of the distributions of future realisations of the IBEX 35 index at a four-week horizon. When forecasting through risk-adjusted densities the performance of this period is statistically improved and we no longer reject that hypothesis. All risk-adjusted densities generate similar forecasting statistics. Then, at least for a horizon of four-weeks, the actual risk adjustment does not seem to be the issue. By contrast, at the one-week horizon risk-adjusted densities do not improve the forecasting ability of the risk-neutral counterparts.

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Published as an article in: Investigaciones Economicas, 2005, vol. 29, issue 3, pages 483-523.

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The effects of the free-stream thermo-chemical state on the test model flow field in the high-enthalpy tunnel are studied numerically. The properties of the free-stream, which is in thermo-chemical non-equilibrium, are determined by calculating the nozzle flow field. A free-stream with total enthalpy equal to the real one in the tunnel while in thermo-chemical equilibrium is constructed artificially to simulate the natural atmosphere condition. The flow fields over the test models (blunt cone and Apollo command capsule model) under both the non-equilibrium and the virtual equilibrium free-stream conditions are calculated. By comparing the properties including pressure, temperature, species concentration and radiation distributions of these two types of flow fields, the effects of the non-equilibrium state of the free-stream in the high-enthalpy shock tunnel are analyzed.

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Low Voltage (LV) electricity distribution grid operations can be improved through a combination of new smart metering systems' capabilities based on real time Power Line Communications (PLC) and LV grid topology mapping. This paper presents two novel contributions. The first one is a new methodology developed for smart metering PLC network monitoring and analysis. It can be used to obtain relevant information from the grid, thus adding value to existing smart metering deployments and facilitating utility operational activities. A second contribution describes grid conditioning used to obtain LV feeder and phase identification of all connected smart electric meters. Real time availability of such information may help utilities with grid planning, fault location and a more accurate point of supply management.

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A sliding mode position control for high-performance real-time applications of induction motors in developed in this work. The design also incorporates a simple flux estimator in order to avoid the flux sensors. Then, the proposed control scheme presents a low computational cost and therefore can be implemented easily in a real-time applications using a low cost DSP-processor. The stability analysis of the controller under parameter uncertainties and load disturbances in provided using Lyapunov stability theory. Finally, simulated and experimental results show that the proposed controller with the proposed observer provides a good trajectory tracking and that this scheme is robust with respect to plant parameter variations and external load disturbances.

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Survival from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest depends largely on two factors: early cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) and early defibrillation. CPR must be interrupted for a reliable automated rhythm analysis because chest compressions induce artifacts in the ECG. Unfortunately, interrupting CPR adversely affects survival. In the last twenty years, research has been focused on designing methods for analysis of ECG during chest compressions. Most approaches are based either on adaptive filters to remove the CPR artifact or on robust algorithms which directly diagnose the corrupted ECG. In general, all the methods report low specificity values when tested on short ECG segments, but how to evaluate the real impact on CPR delivery of continuous rhythm analysis during CPR is still unknown. Recently, researchers have proposed a new methodology to measure this impact. Moreover, new strategies for fast rhythm analysis during ventilation pauses or high-specificity algorithms have been reported. Our objective is to present a thorough review of the field as the starting point for these late developments and to underline the open questions and future lines of research to be explored in the following years.

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ENGLISH: We analyzed catches per unit of effort (CPUE) from the Japanese longline fishery for bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO) with regression tree methods. Regression trees have not previously been used to estimate time series of abundance indices fronl CPUE data. The "optimally sized" tree had 139 parameters; year, month, latitude, and longitude interacted to affect bigeye CPUE. The trend in tree-based abundance indices for the EPO was similar to trends estimated from a generalized linear model and fronl an empirical model that combines oceanographic data with information on the distribution of fish relative to environmental conditions. The regression tree was more parsimonious and would be easier to implement than the other two nl0dels, but the tree provided no information about the nlechanisms that caused bigeye CPUEs to vary in time and space. Bigeye CPUEs increased sharply during the mid-1980's and were more variable at the northern and southern edges of the fishing grounds. Both of these results can be explained by changes in actual abundance and changes in catchability. Results from a regression tree that was fitted to a subset of the data indicated that, in the EPO, bigeye are about equally catchable with regular and deep longlines. This is not consistent with observations that bigeye are more abundant at depth and indicates that classification by gear type (regular or deep longline) may not provide a good measure of capture depth. Asimulated annealing algorithm was used to summarize the tree-based results by partitioning the fishing grounds into regions where trends in bigeye CPUE were similar. Simulated annealing can be useful for designing spatial strata in future sampling programs. SPANISH: Analizamos la captura por unidad de esfuerzo (CPUE) de la pesquería palangrera japonesa de atún patudo (Thunnus obesus) en el Océano Pacifico oriental (OPO) y central con métodos de árbol de regresión. Hasta ahora no se han usado árboles de regresión para estimar series de tiempo de índices de abundancia a partir de datos de CPUE. EI árbol de "tamaño optimo" tuvo 139 parámetros; ano, mes, latitud, y longitud interactuaron para afectar la CPUE de patudo. La tendencia en los índices de abundancia basados en árboles para el OPO fue similar a las tendencias estimadas con un modelo lineal generalizado y con un modelo empírico que combina datos oceanográficos con información sobre la distribución de los peces en relación con las condiciones ambientales. EI árbol de regresión fue mas parsimonioso y seria mas fácil de utilizar que los dos otros modelos, pero no proporciono información sobre los mecanismos que causaron que las CPUE de patudo valiaran en el tiempo y en el espacio. Las CPUE de patudo aumentaron notablemente a mediados de los anos 80 y fueron mas variables en los extremos norte y sur de la zona de pesca. Estos dos resultados pueden ser explicados por cambios en la abundancia real y cambios en la capturabilidad. Los resultados de un arbal de regresión ajustado a un subconjunto de los datos indican que, en el OPO, el patudo es igualmente capturable con palangres regulares y profundos. Esto no es consistente con observaciones de que el patudo abunda mas a profundidad e indica que clasificación por tipo de arte (palangre regular 0 profundo) podría no ser una buena medida de la profundidad de captura. Se uso un algoritmo de templado simulado para resumir los resultados basados en el árbol clasificando las zonas de pesca en zonas con tendencias similares en la CPUE de patudo. El templado simulado podría ser útil para diseñar estratos espaciales en programas futuros de muestreo. (PDF contains 45 pages.)

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Hematopoiesis is a well-established system used to study developmental choices amongst cells with multiple lineage potentials, as well as the transcription factor network interactions that drive these developmental paths. Multipotent progenitors travel from the bone marrow to the thymus where T-cell development is initiated and these early T-cell precursors retain lineage plasticity even after initiating a T-cell program. The development of these early cells is driven by Notch signaling and the combinatorial expression of many transcription factors, several of which are also involved in the development of other cell lineages. The ETS family transcription factor PU.1 is involved in the development of progenitor, myeloid, and lymphoid cells, and can divert progenitor T-cells from the T-lineage to a myeloid lineage. This diversion of early T-cells by PU.1 can be blocked by Notch signaling. The PU.1 and Notch interaction creates a switch wherein PU.1 in the presence of Notch promotes T-cell identity and PU.1 in the absence of Notch signaling promotes a myeloid identity. Here we characterized an early T-cell cell line, Scid.adh.2c2, as a good model system for studying the myeloid vs. lymphoid developmental choice dependent on PU.1 and Notch signaling. We then used the Scid.adh.2c2 system to identify mechanisms mediating PU.1 and Notch signaling interactions during early T-cell development. We show that the mechanism by which Notch signaling is protecting pro-T cells is neither degradation nor modification of the PU.1 protein. Instead we give evidence that Notch signaling is blocking the PU.1-driven inhibition of a key set of T-regulatory genes including Myb, Tcf7, and Gata3. We show that the protection of Gata3 from PU.1-mediated inhibition, by Notch signaling and Myb, is important for retaining a T-lineage identity. We also discuss a PU.1-driven mechanism involving E-protein inhibition that leads to the inhibition of Notch target genes. This is mechanism may be used as a lockdown mechanism in pro-T-cells that have made the decision to divert to the myeloid pathway.

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Escherichia coli is one of the best studied living organisms and a model system for many biophysical investigations. Despite countless discoveries of the details of its physiology, we still lack a holistic understanding of how these bacteria react to changes in their environment. One of the most important examples is their response to osmotic shock. One of the mechanistic elements protecting cell integrity upon exposure to sudden changes of osmolarity is the presence of mechanosensitive channels in the cell membrane. These channels are believed to act as tension release valves protecting the inner membrane from rupturing. This thesis presents an experimental study of various aspects of mechanosensation in bacteria. We examine cell survival after osmotic shock and how the number of MscL (Mechanosensitive channel of Large conductance) channels expressed in a cell influences its physiology. We developed an assay that allows real-time monitoring of the rate of the osmotic challenge and direct observation of cell morphology during and after the exposure to osmolarity change. The work described in this thesis introduces tools that can be used to quantitatively determine at the single-cell level the number of expressed proteins (in this case MscL channels) as a function of, e.g., growth conditions. The improvement in our quantitative description of mechanosensation in bacteria allows us to address many, so far unsolved, problems, like the minimal number of channels needed for survival, and can begin to paint a clearer picture of why there are so many distinct types of mechanosensitive channels.

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Hypervelocity impact of meteoroids and orbital debris poses a serious and growing threat to spacecraft. To study hypervelocity impact phenomena, a comprehensive ensemble of real-time concurrently operated diagnostics has been developed and implemented in the Small Particle Hypervelocity Impact Range (SPHIR) facility. This suite of simultaneously operated instrumentation provides multiple complementary measurements that facilitate the characterization of many impact phenomena in a single experiment. The investigation of hypervelocity impact phenomena described in this work focuses on normal impacts of 1.8 mm nylon 6/6 cylinder projectiles and variable thickness aluminum targets. The SPHIR facility two-stage light-gas gun is capable of routinely launching 5.5 mg nylon impactors to speeds of 5 to 7 km/s. Refinement of legacy SPHIR operation procedures and the investigation of first-stage pressure have improved the velocity performance of the facility, resulting in an increase in average impact velocity of at least 0.57 km/s. Results for the perforation area indicate the considered range of target thicknesses represent multiple regimes describing the non-monotonic scaling of target perforation with decreasing target thickness. The laser side-lighting (LSL) system has been developed to provide ultra-high-speed shadowgraph images of the impact event. This novel optical technique is demonstrated to characterize the propagation velocity and two-dimensional optical density of impact-generated debris clouds. Additionally, a debris capture system is located behind the target during every experiment to provide complementary information regarding the trajectory distribution and penetration depth of individual debris particles. The utilization of a coherent, collimated illumination source in the LSL system facilitates the simultaneous measurement of impact phenomena with near-IR and UV-vis spectrograph systems. Comparison of LSL images to concurrent IR results indicates two distinctly different phenomena. A high-speed, pressure-dependent IR-emitting cloud is observed in experiments to expand at velocities much higher than the debris and ejecta phenomena observed using the LSL system. In double-plate target configurations, this phenomena is observed to interact with the rear-wall several micro-seconds before the subsequent arrival of the debris cloud. Additionally, dimensional analysis presented by Whitham for blast waves is shown to describe the pressure-dependent radial expansion of the observed IR-emitting phenomena. Although this work focuses on a single hypervelocity impact configuration, the diagnostic capabilities and techniques described can be used with a wide variety of impactors, materials, and geometries to investigate any number of engineering and scientific problems.