Determinants of listed property trust bond ratings : Australian evidence

Using artificial neural networks (ANN) and ordinal regression (OR) as alternative methods to predict LPT bond ratings, we examine the role that various financial and industry variables have on Listed Property Trust (LPT) bond ratings issued by Standard and Poor’s from 1999-2006. Our study shows that both OR and ANN provide robust alternatives to rating LPT bonds and that there are no significant differences in results between the two full models. OR results show that of the financial variables used in our models, debt coverage and financial leverage ratios have the most profound effect on LPT bond ratings. Further, ANN results show that 73.0% of LPT bond rating is attributable to financial variables and 23.0% to industry-based variables with office LPT sector accounting for 2.6%, retail LPT 10.9% and stapled management structure 13.5%.

Selected elements of housing affordability impacting otherwise potentially sustainable communities

It is widely held that strong relationships exist between housing, economic status, and well being. Therefore, recent events emerging from the United States, culminating in widespread housing stock surpluses in that country and others, threaten to destabilise many aspects related to individuals and community. However, despite global impact, the position of housing demand and supply is not consistent. The Australian position provides a strong contrast whereby continued strong housing demand generally remains a critical issue affecting the socio-economic landscape. Underpinned by strong levels of immigration, and further buoyed by sustained historically low interest rates, increasing income levels, and increased government assistance for first home buyers, this strong housing demand ensures elements related to housing affordability continue to gain prominence. A significant, but less visible factor impacting housing affordability – particularly new housing development – relates to holding costs. These costs are in many ways “hidden” and cannot always be easily identified. Although it is only one contributor, the nature and extent of its impact requires elucidation. In its simplest form, it commences with a calculation of the interest or opportunity cost of land holding. However, there is significantly more complexity for major new developments - particularly greenfield development. Analysis suggests that even small shifts in primary factors impacting holding costs can appreciably affect housing affordability. Those factors of greatest significance not only include interest rates and the rate of inflation, but even less apparent factors such as the regulatory assessment period. These are not just theoretical concepts but real, measurable price drivers. Ultimately, the real impact is felt by the one market segment whom can typically least afford it – new home, first home buyers. They can be easily pushed out of affordability. This paper suggests the stability and sustainability of growing, new communities require this problem to be acknowledged and accurately identified if the well being of such communities is to be achieved.

A comparison of farmland returns in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and United States

Rural land is still a major property asset class and rural commodity production is an important domestic and export market in all economies. This paper carries out a comprehensive analysis of both rural production and land prices in four major rural production countries. The study compares rural property values in Unites States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand over a period 1990 to 2005 and analyzes and compares the capital return and total return performance for rural land in these four countries. The analysis allows a comparison of farm land returns for both a subsidised and non-subsidised farming policy to determine if levels of farm support result in variations in farm profitability and therefore farm land values.

Property Education : an evaluation of how well undergraduate property students are prepared for commencing their careers

The evolution of property education to adapt to the changing business environment requires changes to course content, method of delivery and assessment. Many universities have a special interest in understanding how the students transition in and transition out of the property programs. The impact of the first year student experience is often easier to assess through students’ progression in the course and performance in their intermediate and advanced units. However, the students’ success in transitioning from university student to property professional is often more difficult to determine. In an environment where many property students commence their professional careers while still completing their undergraduate property qualification, a survey of current final year students was undertaken to identify the students’ perception of their level of preparedness for entry into the professional world. This study has also been informed by feedback received from and informal discussions held with industry representative bodies, alumni and senior members of professional organisations. The QUT UD40 Bachelor of Urban Development, Property Economics course has been designed to achieve graduate capabilities in core technical skills and generic professional skills which are required by property professionals. The results of this study were that some units in the program were perceived to provide direct preparation for students commencing their professional careers whilst the impact of other units was less tangible. Valuable feedback received during the study included an assessment of the relevance of many multi-disciplinary units, the appropriateness of the programming of units within the course and the appropriateness of repetition of content during the course. The further research question arises as to how universities can better assist students in the transition to the professional environment when frequently this occurs prior to completion of the property course.

Assessing the impact of streetscape on residential property in lower to middle socio-economic areas

A number of factors have been shown to influence residential property prices in various locations. Studies have identified the importance of location in relation to services, transport and proximity to negative factors such as power lines and cell phone towers. Often the socio-economic status of a residential precinct can determine the overall quality and nature of the streetscapes in that area, with higher value suburbs or locations offering a better visual appearance compared to areas where these factors are not present. However, does the same value for a good streetscape apply in lower socio-economic areas or a buyers more motivated by less aesthetic factors such as size of the house, construction materials or land size. This paper analyses specific streets in a lower to middle socio-economic suburb of Christchurch New Zealand to determine if the location of a house in a street with good streetscape appeal has greater value, investment performance and saleability compared to adjoining streets with less aesthetic appeal.

Public awareness of ‘green’ residential property – an empirical survey based on data from New Zealand and Germany

Over the last few years more stringent environmental laws (e.g. the German “Energie¬ein-sparverordnung ENEV” - Energy Performance of Buildings Directive) and soaring energy prices has increased the need for the real estate industry to react and participate in overall energy reduction through efficient house construction and design, as well as upgrading the existing housing stock to be more energy efficient. Therefore the Property Economics Group at Queensland University of Technology in Australia and Nuertingen-Geislingen University in Germany are carrying out research in relation to sustainable housing construction and public awareness of “green” residential property. Part of this research is to gain an understanding of the level of knowledge and importance of these issues to the house buyer and to determine the importance of sustainable housing to the general public. The paper compares data from two different empirical studies; one of studies analyzes the situation in New Zealand, the other is focused on Germany.

CSI Lincoln : an investigation into a declining housing market

The residential property market in New Zealand has been experiencing a boom and bubble period from 2001 through to mid 2007. Following a number of increases in the Official Cash Rate by the Reserve Bank and a decline in net migration numbers the housing market was perceived to be over inflated and due for a major correction. Numerous media, Government Departments, property experts and economists have been predicting significant reductions in the median price of residential property throughout New Zealand. This paper will analyse house prices in specific socio-economic locations within Christchurch over the past 12 months to determine how significant the current housing decline is. This study will review the change in residential property prices, variations in property listings since April 2008, sale volumes and days on the market across a range of housing sectors to determine the extent and range of any residential property downturn in the NZ recession.

The impact of property title type on residential property returns

Residential property in New Zealand comprises both freestanding residential properties and medium to high density residential properties. Medium to high density residential property comprises the typical units, townhouses and semi-detached houses common in most residential property markets. However, in many of the larger cities of New Zealand the free standing residential property market has evolved into two separate markets being freehold residential property and cross lease residential property. Cross leases have developed as a form of infill housing to reduce the urban sprawl in major canters, while reducing the time and cost for residential property developers. A cross lease is created when an existing freestanding residential property subdivides a portion of the existing land for the erection of another house on the original title, basically dividing one larger residential section into two smaller residential blocks. This paper will analyse house prices in Christchurch over the period 1992 to 2006 to determine if the various housing markets have shown similar capital returns or if there is a specific preference for a particular residential property title.

Current rural valuation practice : a survey of valuers and agribusiness managers on farm management and sustainable rural land use

Over the past 20 years the nature of rural valuation practice has required most rural valuers to undertake studies in both agriculture (farm management) and valuation, especially if carrying out valuation work for financial institutions. The additional farm financial and management information obtained by rural valuers exceeds that level of information required to value commercial, retail and industrial by the capitalisation of net rent/profit valuation method and is very similar to the level of information required for the valuation of commercial and retail property by the Discounted Cash Flow valuation method. On this basis the valuers specialising in rural valuation practice have the necessary skills and information to value rural properties by an income valuation method, which can focus on the long term environmental and economic sustainability of the property being valued. This paper will review the results of an extensive survey carried out by rural property valuers in Australia, in relation to the impact of farm management on rural property values and sustainable rural land use. A particular focus of the research relates to the increased awareness of the problems of rural land degradation in Australia and the subsequent impact such problems have on the productivity of rural land. These problems of sustainable land use have resulted in the need to develop an approach to rural valuation practice that allows the valuer to factor the past management practices on the subject rural property into the actual valuation figure. An analysis of the past farm management and the inclusion of this data into the valuation methodology provides a much more reliable indication of farm sustainable economic value than the existing direct comparison valuation methodology.

Comparative assessment of characteristics influencing the industrial property markets in Sydney and Hong Kong

Industrial property is commonly located in a designated ‘industrial’ precinct. An industrial property has a specific design and a number of services to support industrial activities including manufacture, distribution and transportation. Although it has a unique characteristic, certain industrial factor might operate differently in different countries. The aim of this paper is to provide a comparison between the Sydney and Hong Kong industrial property characteristics and to highlight their similarities and differences. This exploratory research used secondary data to provide background information of government policy and market conditions. Two case studies were use to illustrate similarities, trends, differences and to explore town planning, specific property characteristics including location, design and layout. Then, analyse whether these factors influence the performance and value of an industrial asset. The location of industrial properties varies between each country and depends heavily on infrastructure. It was noted that the town planning restrictions not only vary between markets and cities but also between property lots. The market conditions of both industrial markets were investigated and the supply and demand and rental levels in both cities were distinctly opposite.

An Analysis of UK Farmland : 1981-2004

The importance of agriculture in many countries has tended to reduce as their economies move from a resource base to a manufacturing industry base. Although the level of agricultural production in first world countries has increased over the past two decades, this increase has generally been at a less significant rate compared to other sectors of the economies. Despite this increase in secondary and high technology industries, developed countries have continued to encourage and support their agricultural industries. This support has been through both tariffs and price support. Although the average farm production property may require this support to maintain long-term production, the better farms can actually achieve production levels and commodity prices that result in these units being competitive on a free market basis. This paper will analyse the total return performance of UK farmland over the period 1981-2004. This analysis will compare the total return from rural properties in the UK and compare this performance to commercial property returns (total, office, retail, industrial), equities and gilts over this 24-year period. The analysis will be based on the IPD UK let land index and the IPD property index. The portfolio diversification and risk-reduction benefits of UK farmland will be highlighted. The analysis shows that rural property has negative correlations with equities and gilts, as well as insignificant positive correlations with retail, industrial and office property. Rural property also provides portfolio diversification benefits.

Residential sales by auction : a property type or geographic consideration

The sale of residential property by auction is a preferred sale method by real estate agents, but not always preferred by some vendors and most residential property buyers. In many residential property markets, the performance and measure of residential property market activity is based on the number of properties offered for sale by auction, auction clearance rates and the number of properties sold prior to auction. However, in many specific residential property markets, sale by auction may not be the preferred or supported method of sale. This paper will review the type of residential property sale within the Sydney residential property market and track the auction sales and clearance rates for Sydney over the past 5 months and compare these results in relation to clearance rates, passed in sales, and properties sold prior to auction This will provide a breakdown of real estate agency sale practice over a large metropolitan region to determine the impact of geographic location and socio-economic factors on the auction of residential property. In addition the paper will analyse the weekly auction sales in the Sydney residential property market to determine what areas of Sydney have the greatest number of house auctions and the performance of the auctions in relation location and socio economic factors.

Property and valuation education : an analysis of UWS property students from 1994 to 2006

The valuation and property is an evolving industry and the participants within the industry are also changing. This change is due to improved technology and construction, global nature of business today, professional standards, legal and accounting issues and environmental matters. Throughout this change in the property industry, there has also been significant change in the structure and content of tertiary property courses in Australia. Over the past thirteen years each first year cohort commencing study in the property program at the University of Western Sydney have been surveyed in relation to their background, reasons for course selection and job expectations. This paper will review this annual survey and the profile of all first year students who commenced their studies in the Bachelor of Business (Property) degree [formerly Bachelor of Commerce (Property Economics) and Bachelor of Commerce (Land Economy)] for years commencing 1994 to 2006. The paper will also provide a detailed analysis of the type of student entering the property industry and their exposure to the valuation and property sectors prior to commencing their studies.

Changing face of property students : an analysis of UWS property students from 1994 to 2003

Property is an evolving industry and the participants within the industry are also changing. This change is due to improved technology and construction, global nature of business today, professional standards, legal and accounting issues and environmental matters. Throughout this change in the property industry, there has also been significant change in the structure and content of tertiary property courses in Australia. Over the past ten years each first year cohort commencing study in the property program at the University of Western Sydney have been surveyed in relation to their background, reasons for course selection and job expectations. This paper will review the annual survey and the profile of all first year students who commenced their studies in the Bachelor of Business (Property Economics) degree [formerly Bachelor of Commerce (Property Economics) and Bachelor of Commerce (Land Economy)] for years commencing 1994 to 2003.