The collision branching process

We consider a branching model, which we call the collision branching process (CBP), that accounts for the effect of collisions, or interactions, between particles or individuals. We establish that there is a unique CBP, and derive necessary and sufficient conditions for it to be nonexplosive. We review results on extinction probabilities, and obtain explicit expressions for the probability of explosion and the expected hitting times. The upwardly skip-free case is studied in some detail.

Improving wheat simulation capabilities in Australia from a cropping systems perspective - III. The integrated wheat model (I_WHEAT)

Previous work has identified several short-comings in the ability of four spring wheat and one barley model to simulate crop processes and resource utilization. This can have important implications when such models are used within systems models where final soil water and nitrogen conditions of one crop define the starting conditions of the following crop. In an attempt to overcome these limitations and to reconcile a range of modelling approaches, existing model components that worked demonstrably well were combined with new components for aspects where existing capabilities were inadequate. This resulted in the Integrated Wheat Model (I_WHEAT), which was developed as a module of the cropping systems model APSIM. To increase predictive capability of the model, process detail was reduced, where possible, by replacing groups of processes with conservative, biologically meaningful parameters. I_WHEAT does not contain a soil water or soil nitrogen balance. These are present as other modules of APSIM. In I_WHEAT, yield is simulated using a linear increase in harvest index whereby nitrogen or water limitations can lead to early termination of grainfilling and hence cessation of harvest index increase. Dry matter increase is calculated either from the amount of intercepted radiation and radiation conversion efficiency or from the amount of water transpired and transpiration efficiency, depending on the most limiting resource. Leaf area and tiller formation are calculated from thermal time and a cultivar specific phyllochron interval. Nitrogen limitation first reduces leaf area and then affects radiation conversion efficiency as it becomes more severe. Water or nitrogen limitations result in reduced leaf expansion, accelerated leaf senescence or tiller death. This reduces the radiation load on the crop canopy (i.e. demand for water) and can make nitrogen available for translocation to other organs. Sensitive feedbacks between light interception and dry matter accumulation are avoided by having environmental effects acting directly on leaf area development, rather than via biomass production. This makes the model more stable across environments without losing the interactions between the different external influences. When comparing model output with models tested previously using data from a wide range of agro-climatic conditions, yield and biomass predictions were equal to the best of those models, but improvements could be demonstrated for simulating leaf area dynamics in response to water and nitrogen supply, kernel nitrogen content, and total water and nitrogen use. I_WHEAT does not require calibration for any of the environments tested. Further model improvement should concentrate on improving phenology simulations, a more thorough derivation of coefficients to describe leaf area development and a better quantification of some processes related to nitrogen dynamics. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.

Determining forest structural attributes using an inverted geometric-optical model in mixed eucalypt forests, Southeast Queensland, Australia

The Montreal Process indicators are intended to provide a common framework for assessing and reviewing progress toward sustainable forest management. The potential of a combined geometrical-optical/spectral mixture analysis model was assessed for mapping the Montreal Process age class and successional age indicators at a regional scale using Landsat Thematic data. The project location is an area of eucalyptus forest in Emu Creek State Forest, Southeast Queensland, Australia. A quantitative model relating the spectral reflectance of a forest to the illumination geometry, slope, and aspect of the terrain surface and the size, shape, and density, and canopy size. Inversion of this model necessitated the use of spectral mixture analysis to recover subpixel information on the fractional extent of ground scene elements (such as sunlit canopy, shaded canopy, sunlit background, and shaded background). Results obtained fron a sensitivity analysis allowed improved allocation of resources to maximize the predictive accuracy of the model. It was found that modeled estimates of crown cover projection, canopy size, and tree densities had significant agreement with field and air photo-interpreted estimates. However, the accuracy of the successional stage classification was limited. The results obtained highlight the potential for future integration of high and moderate spatial resolution-imaging sensors for monitoring forest structure and condition. (C) Elsevier Science Inc., 2000.

An assumption-driven case-specific model editor

A case sensitive intelligent model editor has been developed for constructing consistent lumped dynamic process models and for simplifying them using modelling assumptions. The approach is based on a systematic assumption-driven modelling procedure and on the syntax and semantics of process,models and the simplifying assumptions.

A context noise model of episodic word recognition

Item noise models of recognition assert that interference at retrieval is generated by the words from the study list. Context noise models of recognition assert that interference at retrieval is generated by the contexts in which the test word has appeared. The authors introduce the bind cue decide model of episodic memory, a Bayesian context noise model, and demonstrate how it can account for data from the item noise and dual-processing approaches to recognition memory. From the item noise perspective, list strength and list length effects, the mirror effect for word frequency and concreteness, and the effects of the similarity of other words in a list are considered. From the dual-processing perspective, process dissociation data on the effects of length, temporal separation of lists, strength, and diagnosticity of context are examined. The authors conclude that the context noise approach to recognition is a viable alternative to existing approaches.

Environmental impact evaluation using a cooperative model for implementing EMS (ISO 14001) in small and medium-sized enterprises

Certification of an ISO 14001 Environmental Management System (EMS) is currently an important requirement for those enterprises wishing to sell their products in the context of a global market. The system`s structure is based on environmental impact evaluation (EIE). However, if an erroneous or inadequate methodology is applied, the entire process may be jeopardized. Many methodologies have been developed for making of EIEs, some of them are fairly complex and unsuitable for EMS implementation in an organizational context, principally when small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) are involved. The proposed methodology for EIE is part of a model for implementing EMS. The methodological approach used was a qualitative exploratory research method based upon sources of evidence such as document analyses, semi-structured interviews and participant observations. By adopting a cooperative implementation model based on the theory of system engineering, difficulties relating to implementation of the sub-system were overcome thus encouraging SMEs to implement EMS. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecosystem process models at multiple scales for mapping tropical forest productivity

Quantifying mass and energy exchanges within tropical forests is essential for understanding their role in the global carbon budget and how they will respond to perturbations in climate. This study reviews ecosystem process models designed to predict the growth and productivity of temperate and tropical forest ecosystems. Temperate forest models were included because of the minimal number of tropical forest models. The review provides a multiscale assessment enabling potential users to select a model suited to the scale and type of information they require in tropical forests. Process models are reviewed in relation to their input and output parameters, minimum spatial and temporal units of operation, maximum spatial extent and time period of application for each organization level of modelling. Organizational levels included leaf-tree, plot-stand, regional and ecosystem levels, with model complexity decreasing as the time-step and spatial extent of model operation increases. All ecosystem models are simplified versions of reality and are typically aspatial. Remotely sensed data sets and derived products may be used to initialize, drive and validate ecosystem process models. At the simplest level, remotely sensed data are used to delimit location, extent and changes over time of vegetation communities. At a more advanced level, remotely sensed data products have been used to estimate key structural and biophysical properties associated with ecosystem processes in tropical and temperate forests. Combining ecological models and image data enables the development of carbon accounting systems that will contribute to understanding greenhouse gas budgets at biome and global scales.

Systemic Model for Diagnosis of the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises from Two Cities from the Countryside of the State of So Paulo in Brazil

This article presents a proposal of a systemic model composed for the micro and small companies (MSE) of the region of Ribeiro Preto and the agents which influenced their environment. The proposed model was based on Stafford Beer`s (Diagnosing the system for organizations. Chichester, Wiley, 1985) systemic methodologies VSM (Viable System Model) and on Werner Ulrich`s (1983) CSH (Critical Systems Heuristics). The VSM is a model for the diagnosis of the structure of an organization and of its flows of information through the application of the cybernetics concepts (Narvarte, In El Modelo del Sistema Viable-MSV: experiencias de su aplicacin en Chile. Proyecto Cerebro Colectivo del IAS, Santiago, 2001). On the other hand, CSH focus on the context of the social group applied to the systemic vision as a counterpoint to the organizational management view considered by the VSM. MSE of Ribeiro Preto and Sertozinho had been analyzed as organizations inserted in systems that relate and integrate with other systems concerning the public administration, entities of representation and promotion agencies. The research questions: which are the bonds of interaction among the subsystems in this process and who are the agents involved? The systemic approach not only diagnosed a social group, formed by MSE of Ribeiro Preto and Sertozinho, public authorities and support entities, but could also delineate answers that aimed the clarification of obscure questions generating financial assistance to the formularization of efficient actions for the development of this system.

Preparation of protein-loaded-PLGA microspheres by an emulsion/solvent evaporation process employing LTCC micromixers

This study presents the possibilities offered by microfluidic structures for the production of polymeric microspheres, using a process based upon the production of an emulsion. LTCC (Low Temperature Co-fired Ceramics) micromixers have been used for the preparation of polymeric microspheres. The effect of the geometry of the micromixers has been studied, with a specific focus on the size of the microspheres. as well as the control release properties of a model protein loaded within these microspheres. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V.

A Comparison Between Pulse Pressure Variation and Right End Diastolic Volume Index as Guides to Resuscitation in a Model of Hemorrhagic Shock in Pigs

Background: Different hemodynamic parameters including static indicators of cardiac preload as right ventricular end-diastolic volume index (RVEDVI) and dynamic parameters as pulse pressure variation (PPV) have been used in the decision-making process regarding volume expansion in critically ill patients. The objective of this study was to compare fluid resuscitation guided by either PPV or RVEDVI after experimentally induced hemorrhagic shock. Methods: Twenty-six anesthetized and mechanically ventilated pigs were allocated into control (group I), PPV (group II), or RVEDVI (group III) group. Hemorrhagic shock was induced by blood withdrawal to target mean arterial pressure of 40 mm Hg, maintained for 60 minutes. Parameters were measured at baseline, time of shock, 60 minutes after shock, immediately after resuscitation with hydroxyethyl starch 6% (130/0.4), 1 hour and 2 hours thereafter. The endpoint of fluid resuscitation was determined as the baseline values of PPV and RVEDVI. Statistical analysis of data was based on analysis of variance for repeated measures followed by the Bonferroni test (p < 0.05). Results: Volume and time to resuscitation were higher in group III than in group II (group III = 1,305 +/- 331 mL and group II = 965 +/- 245 mL, p < 0.05; and group III = 24.8 +/- 4.7 minutes and group II = 8.8 +/- 1.3 minutes, p < 0.05, respectively). All static and dynamic parameters and biomarkers of tissue oxygenation were affected by hemorrhagic shock and nearly all parameters were restored after resuscitation in both groups. Conclusion: In the proposed model of hemorrhagic shock, resuscitation to the established endpoints was achieved within a smaller amount of time and with less volume when guided by PPV than when guided by pulmonary artery catheter-derived RVEDVI.

Satellite observation and climate system model simulation of the St. Lawrence Island polynya

The St. Lawrence Island polynya (SLIP) is a commonly occurring winter phenomenon in the Bering Sea, in which dense saline water produced during new ice formation is thought to flow northward through the Bering Strait to help maintain the Arctic Ocean halocline. Winter darkness and inclement weather conditions have made continuous in situ and remote observation of this polynya difficult. However, imagery acquired from the European Space Agency ERS-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) has allowed observation of the St. Lawrence Island polynya using both the imagery and derived ice displacement products. With the development of ARCSyM, a high resolution regional model of the Arctic atmosphere/sea ice system, simulation of the SLIP in a climate model is now possible. Intercomparisons between remotely sensed products and simulations can lead to additional insight into the SLIP formation process. Low resolution SAR, SSM/I and AVHRR infrared imagery for the St. Lawrence Island region are compared with the results of a model simulation for the period of 24-27 February 1992. The imagery illustrates a polynya event (polynya opening). With the northerly winds strong and consistent over several days, the coupled model captures the SLIP event with moderate accuracy. However, the introduction of a stability dependent atmosphere-ice drag coefficient, which allows feedbacks between atmospheric stability, open water, and air-ice drag, produces a more accurate simulation of the SLIP in comparison to satellite imagery. Model experiments show that the polynya event is forced primarily by changes in atmospheric circulation followed by persistent favorable conditions: ocean surface currents are found to have a small but positive impact on the simulation which is enhanced when wind forcing is weak or variable.

The formal representation of process system modelling assumptions and their implications

In order to analyse the effect of modelling assumptions in a formal, rigorous way, a syntax of modelling assumptions has been defined. The syntax of modelling assumptions enables us to represent modelling assumptions as transformations acting on the set of model equations. The notion of syntactical correctness and semantical consistency of sets of modelling assumptions is defined and methods for checking them are described. It is shown on a simple example how different modelling assumptions act on the model equations and their effect on the differential index of the resulted model is also indicated.

A Dynamic Model of Hand-and-Foot Syndrome in Patients Receiving Capecitabine

For the purpose of developing a longitudinal model to predict hand-and-foot syndrome (HFS) dynamics in patients receiving capecitabine, data from two large phase III studies were used. Of 595 patients in the capecitabine arms, 400 patients were randomly selected to build the model, and the other 195 were assigned for model validation. A score for risk of developing HFS was modeled using the proportional odds model, a sigmoidal maximum effect model driven by capecitabine accumulation as estimated through a kinetic-pharmacodynamic model and a Markov process. The lower the calculated creatinine clearance value at inclusion, the higher was the risk of HFS. Model validation was performed by visual and statistical predictive checks. The predictive dynamic model of HFS in patients receiving capecitabine allows the prediction of toxicity risk based on cumulative capecitabine dose and previous HFS grade. This dose-toxicity model will be useful in developing Bayesian individual treatment adaptations and may be of use in the clinic.

A two-dimensional fuzzy random model of soil pore structure

A new conceptual model for soil pore-solid structure is formalized. Soil pore-solid structure is proposed to comprise spatially abutting elements each with a value which is its membership to the fuzzy set ''pore,'' termed porosity. These values have a range between zero (all solid) and unity (all pore). Images are used to represent structures in which the elements are pixels and the value of each is a porosity. Two-dimensional random fields are generated by allocating each pixel a porosity by independently sampling a statistical distribution. These random fields are reorganized into other pore-solid structural types by selecting parent points which have a specified local region of influence. Pixels of larger or smaller porosity are aggregated about the parent points and within the region of interest by controlled swapping of pixels in the image. This creates local regions of homogeneity within the random field. This is similar to the process known as simulated annealing. The resulting structures are characterized using one-and two-dimensional variograms and functions describing their connectivity. A variety of examples of structures created by the model is presented and compared. Extension to three dimensions presents no theoretical difficulties and is currently under development.

Expression of vitamin D receptor mRNA in the hippocampal formation of rats submitted to a model of temporal lobe epilepsy induced by pilocarpine

Vitamin D (VD), is a steroid hormone with multiple functions in the central nervous system (CNS), producing numerous physiological effects mediated by its receptor (VDR). Clinical and experimental studies have shown a link between VD dysfunction and epilepsy. Along these lines, the purpose of our work was to analyze the relative expression of VDR mRNA in the hippocampal formation of rats during the three periods of pilocarpine-induced epilepsy. Male Wistar rats were divided into five groups: (1) control group; rats that received saline 0.9%, i.p. and were killed 7 days after its administration (CTRL, n = 8), (2) SE group; rats that received pilocarpine and were killed 4 h after SE (SE, n = 8), (3) Silent group-7 days; rats that received pilocarpine and were killed 7 days after SE (SIL 7d, n = 8), (4) Silent group-14 days; rats that received pilocarpine and were killed 14 days after SE (SIL 14d, n = 8), (5) Chronic group; rats that received pilocarpine and were killed 60 days after the first spontaneous seizure, (chronic, n = 8). The relative expression of VDR mRNA was determined by real-time PCR. Our results showed an increase of the relative expression of VDR mRNA in the SIL 7 days, SIL 14 days and Chronic groups, respectively (0.060 +/- 0.024; 0.052 +/- 0.035; 0.085 +/- 0.055) when compared with the CTRL and SE groups (0.019 +/- 0.017; 0.019 +/- 0.025). These data suggest the VDR as a possible candidate participating in the epileptogenesis process of the pilocarpine model of epilepsy. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.