887 resultados para probability of occurrence


Relevância:

90.00% 90.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Purpose: To evaluate the safety-efficacy of Gamma Knife surgery (GKS) as a second treatment for classical trigeminal neuralgia (CTN), and the influence of prior microvascular decompression (MVD). Methods: Between July 1992 and November 2010, 737 patients have been operated with GKRS for ITN and prospectively evaluated in Timone University Hospital in Marseille, France. Among these, 54 patients had a previous history of MVD. Radiosurgery using a Gamma Knife (model B or C or Perfexion) was performed on the basis of on both MR and CT targeting. A single 4 mm isocenter was positioned in the cisternal portion of the trigeminal nerve at a median distance of 7.6 mm (range 3.9-11.9) anteriorly to the emergence of the nerve (retrogasserian target). A median maximum dose of 85 Gy (range 70-90) was delivered. Here, the 45 patients with previous MVD and a follow-up longer than one year are evaluated (the patients with megadolichobasilar artery compression and multiple sclerosis were excluded). Results: The median age in this series was 56.75 years (range 28.09-82.39). The median follow-up period was 39.48 months (range 14.10-144.65). All the patients had a past history of surgery, with at least one previous failed MVD, but also radiofrequency lesion (RFL) in 16 patients (35.6%), balloon microcompression in 7 (15.6%) and glycerol rhizotomy in 1 (2.2%). Thirty-five patients (77.8%) were initially pain free after GKS within a median time of 14 days (range 0, 180). Patients from this group had less probability of being pain free compared to our global population of essential trigeminal neuralgia without previous MVD history (p=0.010, hazard ratio of 0.64). Their probability of remaining pain free at 3, 5, 7 and 10 years was 66.5%, 59.1%, 59.1% and 44.3%, respectively. Twelve patients (34.3%) initially pain free experienced a recurrence with a median delay of 31.21 months (range 3.40-89.93). The hypoesthesia actuarial rate at 1 year was 9.1% and remained stable till 12 years with a median delay of onset of 8 months (range 8-8). Conclusions: Retrogasserian GKS proofed to be safe and effective on the long-term basis even after failed previous MVD. Even if the initial result of pain free was only 77.8%, the toxicity was low with only 9.1% hypoesthesia. No patient reported a bothersome hypoesthesia. The probability of maintaining pain relief in the long-term was of 44.3% at 10 years.

Relevância:

90.00% 90.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

OBJECTIVES: The use of tenofovir is highly associated with the emergence of mutation K65R, which confers broad resistance to nucleoside/nucleotide analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), especially when tenofovir is combined with other NRTIs also selecting for K65R. Although recent HIV-1 treatment guidelines discouraging these combinations resulted in reduced K65R selection with tenofovir, updated information on the impact of currently recommended regimens on the population selection rate of K65R is presently lacking. METHODS: In this study, we evaluated changes over time in the selection rate of resistance mutation K65R in a large population of 2736 HIV-1-infected patients failing combination antiretroviral treatment between 2002 and 2010. RESULTS: The K65R resistance mutation was detected in 144 patients, a prevalence of 5.3%. A large majority of observed K65R cases were explained by the use of tenofovir, reflecting its wide use in clinical practice. However, changing patterns over time in NRTIs accompanying tenofovir resulted in a persistent decreasing probability of K65R selection by tenofovir-based therapy. The currently recommended NRTI combination tenofovir/emtricitabine was associated with a low probability of K65R emergence. For any given dual NRTI combination including tenofovir, higher selection rates of K65R were consistently observed with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor than with a protease inhibitor as the third agent. DISCUSSION: Our finding of a stable time trend of K65R despite elevated use of tenofovir illustrates increased potency of current HIV-1 therapy including tenofovir.

Relevância:

90.00% 90.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Detection and discrimination of visuospatial input involve at least extracting, selecting and encoding relevant information and decision-making processes allowing selecting a response. These two operations are altered, respectively, by attentional mechanisms that change discrimination capacities, and by beliefs concerning the likelihood of uncertain events. Information processing is tuned by the attentional level that acts like a filter on perception, while decision-making processes are weighed by subjective probability of risk. In addition, it has been shown that anxiety could affect the detection of unexpected events through the modification of the level of arousal. Consequently, purpose of this study concerns whether and how decision-making and brain dynamics are affected by anxiety. To investigate these questions, the performance of women with either a high (12) or a low (12) STAI-T (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, Spielberger, 1983) was examined in a decision-making visuospatial task where subjects have to recognize a target visual pattern from non-target patterns. The target pattern was a schematic image of furniture arranged in such a way as to give the impression of a living room. Non-target patterns were created by either the compression or the dilatation of the distances between objects. Target and non-target patterns were always presented in the same configuration. Preliminary behavioral results show no group difference in reaction time. In addition, visuo-spatial abilities were analyzed trough the signal detection theory for quantifying perceptual decisions in the presence of uncertainty (Green and Swets, 1966). This theory treats detection of a stimulus as a decision-making process determined by the nature of the stimulus and cognitive factors. Astonishingly, no difference in d' (corresponding to the distance between means of the distributions) and c (corresponds to the likelihood ratio) indexes was observed. Comparison of Event-related potentials (ERP) reveals that brain dynamics differ according to anxiety. It shows differences in component latencies, particularly a delay in anxious subjects over posterior electrode sites. However, these differences are compensated during later components by shorter latencies in anxious subjects compared to non-anxious one. These inverted effects seem indicate that the absence of difference in reaction time rely on a compensation of attentional level that tunes cortical activation in anxious subjects, but they have to hammer away to maintain performance.

Relevância:

90.00% 90.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Inbreeding depression is one of the hypotheses explaining the maintenance of females within gynodioecious plant populations. However, the measurement of fitness components in selfed and outcrossed progeny depends on life-cycle stage and the history of inbreeding. Comparative data indicate that strong inbreeding depression is more likely to occur at later life-cycle stages. We used hermaphrodite individuals of Silene vulgaris originating from three populations located in different valleys in the Swiss Alps to investigate the effect of two generations of self- and cross-fertilization on fitness components among successive stages of the life cycle in a glasshouse experiment. We detected significant inbreeding depression for most life-cycle stages including: the number of viable and aborted seeds per fruit, probability of germination, above ground biomass, probability of flowering, number of flowers per plant, flower size and pollen viability. Overall, the intensity of inbreeding depression increased among successive stages of the life cycle and cumulative inbreeding depression was significantly stronger in the first generation (delta approximately 0.5) compared with the second generation (delta approximately 0.35). We found no evidence for synergistic epistasis in our experiment. Our finding of more intense inbreeding depression during later stages of the life cycle may help to explain the maintenance of females in gynodioecious populations of S. vulgaris because purging of genetic load is less likely to occur.

Relevância:

90.00% 90.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

It is not unusual for patients with "rare" conditions, such as skeletal dysplasias, to remain undiagnosed until adulthood. In such cases, a pregnancy may unexpectedly reveal hidden problems and special needs. A 28 year old primigravida was referred to us at 17 weeks for counselling with an undiagnosed skeletal dysplasia with specific skeletal anomalies suggesting the collagen 2 disorder, spondyloperipheral dysplasia (SPD; MIM 156550).She was counselled about the probability of dominant inheritance and was offered a prenatal diagnosis by sonography. US examination at 17, 18 and 20 weeks revealed fetal macrocephaly, a narrow thorax, and shortening and bowing of long bones. The parents elected to continue the pregnancy. At birth the baby showed severe respiratory distress for four weeks which then resolved. Mutation analysis of both mother and child revealed a hitherto undescribed heterozygous nonsense mutation in the C-propeptide coding region of COL2A1 confirming the diagnosis of SPD while reinforcing the genotype-phenotype correlations between C-propeptide COL2A1 mutations and the SPD-Torrance spectrum. This case demonstrates the importance of a correct diagnosis even in adulthood, enabling individuals affected by rare conditions to be made aware about recurrence and pregnancy-associated risks, and potential complications in the newborn.

Relevância:

90.00% 90.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The Pyrenean chamois (Rupicapra pyrenaica pyrenaica) is a mountain-dwelling ungulate with an extensive presence in open areas. Optimal group size results from the trade off between advantages (a reduction in the risk of predation) and disadvantages (competition between members of the herd) of group living. In addition, advantages and disadvantages of group living may vary depending on the position of each individual within the herd. Our objective was to study the effect of central vs. peripheral position in the herd on feeding and vigilance behavior in male and female Pyrenean chamois and to ascertain if a group size effect existed. We used focal animal sampling and recorded social interactions when a focal animal was involved. With males, vigilance rate was higher in the central part of the group than at the periphery, probably due to a higher density of animals in the central part of the herd and a higher probability of being disturbed by conspecifics. With females, vigilance rate did not differ according to position in the herd. Females spent more time feeding than males, and males showed a higher frequency of the vigilance behavior than females. We did not observe a clear relationship between group size and vigilance behavior. The differences in vigilance behavior might be due to social interactions.

Relevância:

90.00% 90.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

1. Species distribution modelling is used increasingly in both applied and theoretical research to predict how species are distributed and to understand attributes of species' environmental requirements. In species distribution modelling, various statistical methods are used that combine species occurrence data with environmental spatial data layers to predict the suitability of any site for that species. While the number of data sharing initiatives involving species' occurrences in the scientific community has increased dramatically over the past few years, various data quality and methodological concerns related to using these data for species distribution modelling have not been addressed adequately. 2. We evaluated how uncertainty in georeferences and associated locational error in occurrences influence species distribution modelling using two treatments: (1) a control treatment where models were calibrated with original, accurate data and (2) an error treatment where data were first degraded spatially to simulate locational error. To incorporate error into the coordinates, we moved each coordinate with a random number drawn from the normal distribution with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of 5 km. We evaluated the influence of error on the performance of 10 commonly used distributional modelling techniques applied to 40 species in four distinct geographical regions. 3. Locational error in occurrences reduced model performance in three of these regions; relatively accurate predictions of species distributions were possible for most species, even with degraded occurrences. Two species distribution modelling techniques, boosted regression trees and maximum entropy, were the best performing models in the face of locational errors. The results obtained with boosted regression trees were only slightly degraded by errors in location, and the results obtained with the maximum entropy approach were not affected by such errors. 4. Synthesis and applications. To use the vast array of occurrence data that exists currently for research and management relating to the geographical ranges of species, modellers need to know the influence of locational error on model quality and whether some modelling techniques are particularly robust to error. We show that certain modelling techniques are particularly robust to a moderate level of locational error and that useful predictions of species distributions can be made even when occurrence data include some error.

Relevância:

90.00% 90.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Factors affecting mating behaviour in the bug Triatoma infestans were quantitatively studied in the laboratory. Experimental conditions were established so that the probability of copulation increased with the time elapsed since the first adult meal. Copulatory attempts by males did not vary as a function of time, but rejections by females became significantly less frequent with the post feeding time. Non-receptive females displayed four types of rejection behaviour, i.e. flattening, stridulation, evasion and abdominal movements. The occurrence of stridulation performed by females in a sexual context was observed in a regular fashion and was quantified for the first time in this species.

Relevância:

90.00% 90.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Empirical modeling of exposure levels has been popular for identifying exposure determinants in occupational hygiene. Traditional data-driven methods used to choose a model on which to base inferences have typically not accounted for the uncertainty linked to the process of selecting the final model. Several new approaches propose making statistical inferences from a set of plausible models rather than from a single model regarded as 'best'. This paper introduces the multimodel averaging approach described in the monograph by Burnham and Anderson. In their approach, a set of plausible models are defined a priori by taking into account the sample size and previous knowledge of variables influent on exposure levels. The Akaike information criterion is then calculated to evaluate the relative support of the data for each model, expressed as Akaike weight, to be interpreted as the probability of the model being the best approximating model given the model set. The model weights can then be used to rank models, quantify the evidence favoring one over another, perform multimodel prediction, estimate the relative influence of the potential predictors and estimate multimodel-averaged effects of determinants. The whole approach is illustrated with the analysis of a data set of 1500 volatile organic compound exposure levels collected by the Institute for work and health (Lausanne, Switzerland) over 20 years, each concentration having been divided by the relevant Swiss occupational exposure limit and log-transformed before analysis. Multimodel inference represents a promising procedure for modeling exposure levels that incorporates the notion that several models can be supported by the data and permits to evaluate to a certain extent model selection uncertainty, which is seldom mentioned in current practice.

Relevância:

90.00% 90.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Because environmental conditions within a given basin are different for each season and at different water depth, knowledge of the life history and depth distribution of target species is important for environmental and palaeoenvironmental interpretations based on ostracod species assemblages and/or the geochemical compositions of their valves. In order to determine the distribution of species with depth as well as the life history of species from Lake Geneva, a one year sampling campaign of living ostracods was conducted at five sites (2, 5, 13, 33 and 70 m water depth) on a monthly basis in the Petit-Lac (western basin of Lake Geneva, Switzerland). Based on the results, the different species can be classified into three groups. Littoral taxa are found at 2 and 5 m water depth and include, in decreasing numbers of individuals, Cypridopsis vidua (O. F.Müller, 1776), Pseudocandona compressa (Koch, 1838), Limnocythere inopinata (Baird, 1843), Herpetocypris reptans (Baird, 1835), Potamocypris smaragdina (Vávra, 1891), Potamocypris similis (G. W. Müller, 1912), Plesiocypridopsis newtoni (Brady & Robertson, 1870), Prionocypris zenkeri (Chyzer & Toth, 1858) and Ilyocypris sp. Brady & Norman, 1889. Sublittoral species are found in a majority at 13 m water depth and to a lesser extend at 33 m water depth and include, in decreasing numbers of individuals, Fabaeformiscandona caudata (Kaufmann, 1900), Limnocytherina sanctipatricii, Candona candida (O. F. Müller, 1776) and Isocypris beauchampi (Paris, 1920). Profundal species are found equally at 13, 33 and 70 m water depth and includes, in decreasing numbers of individuals, Cytherissa lacustris (Sars, 1863), Candona neglecta Sars, 1887 and Cypria lacustris Lilljeborg, 1890. The occurrence of Limnocytherina sanctipatricii (Brady & Robertson, 1869) is restricted from late winter to late spring when temperatures are low, while C. vidua, L. inopinata, P. smaragdina, P. similis, P. newtoni and Ilyocypris sp. occur predominantly from spring to early autumn when temperatures are high. Individuals of C. neglecta, C. candida, F. caudata, P. compressa, C. lacustris, H. reptans and Cp. lacustris occur throughout the year with juveniles and adults occurring during the same period (C. neglecta at 70 m, C. lacustris at 13, 33 and 70 m, and H. reptans at 2, 5 and 13 m water depth) or with juveniles occurring during a different period of the year than adults (C. neglecta at 13 and 33 m and C. candida, F. caudata and P. compressa at their respective depth of occurrence). Among the environmental parameters investigated, an estimate of the relationship between ostracod autoecology and environmental parameters suggests that in the Petit-Lac: (i) water temperature and substrate characteristics are important factors controlling the distribution of species with depth, (ii) water temperature is also important for determining the timing of species development and, hence, its specific life history, and (iii) water oxygen and sedimentary organic matter content is less important compared to the other environmental parameter monitored.

Relevância:

90.00% 90.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Summary (in English) Computer simulations provide a practical way to address scientific questions that would be otherwise intractable. In evolutionary biology, and in population genetics in particular, the investigation of evolutionary processes frequently involves the implementation of complex models, making simulations a particularly valuable tool in the area. In this thesis work, I explored three questions involving the geographical range expansion of populations, taking advantage of spatially explicit simulations coupled with approximate Bayesian computation. First, the neutral evolutionary history of the human spread around the world was investigated, leading to a surprisingly simple model: A straightforward diffusion process of migrations from east Africa throughout a world map with homogeneous landmasses replicated to very large extent the complex patterns observed in real human populations, suggesting a more continuous (as opposed to structured) view of the distribution of modern human genetic diversity, which may play a better role as a base model for further studies. Second, the postglacial evolution of the European barn owl, with the formation of a remarkable coat-color cline, was inspected with two rounds of simulations: (i) determine the demographic background history and (ii) test the probability of a phenotypic cline, like the one observed in the natural populations, to appear without natural selection. We verified that the modern barn owl population originated from a single Iberian refugium and that they formed their color cline, not due to neutral evolution, but with the necessary participation of selection. The third and last part of this thesis refers to a simulation-only study inspired by the barn owl case above. In this chapter, we showed that selection is, indeed, effective during range expansions and that it leaves a distinguished signature, which can then be used to detect and measure natural selection in range-expanding populations. Résumé (en français) Les simulations fournissent un moyen pratique pour répondre à des questions scientifiques qui seraient inabordable autrement. En génétique des populations, l'étude des processus évolutifs implique souvent la mise en oeuvre de modèles complexes, et les simulations sont un outil particulièrement précieux dans ce domaine. Dans cette thèse, j'ai exploré trois questions en utilisant des simulations spatialement explicites dans un cadre de calculs Bayésiens approximés (approximate Bayesian computation : ABC). Tout d'abord, l'histoire de la colonisation humaine mondiale et de l'évolution de parties neutres du génome a été étudiée grâce à un modèle étonnement simple. Un processus de diffusion des migrants de l'Afrique orientale à travers un monde avec des masses terrestres homogènes a reproduit, dans une très large mesure, les signatures génétiques complexes observées dans les populations humaines réelles. Un tel modèle continu (opposé à un modèle structuré en populations) pourrait être très utile comme modèle de base dans l'étude de génétique humaine à l'avenir. Deuxièmement, l'évolution postglaciaire d'un gradient de couleur chez l'Effraie des clocher (Tyto alba) Européenne, a été examiné avec deux séries de simulations pour : (i) déterminer l'histoire démographique de base et (ii) tester la probabilité qu'un gradient phénotypique, tel qu'observé dans les populations naturelles puisse apparaître sans sélection naturelle. Nous avons montré que la population actuelle des chouettes est sortie d'un unique refuge ibérique et que le gradient de couleur ne peux pas s'être formé de manière neutre (sans l'action de la sélection naturelle). La troisième partie de cette thèse se réfère à une étude par simulations inspirée par l'étude de l'Effraie. Dans ce dernier chapitre, nous avons montré que la sélection est, en effet, aussi efficace dans les cas d'expansion d'aire de distribution et qu'elle laisse une signature unique, qui peut être utilisée pour la détecter et estimer sa force.

Relevância:

90.00% 90.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Failure to detect a species in an area where it is present is a major source of error in biological surveys. We assessed whether it is possible to optimize single-visit biological monitoring surveys of highly dynamic freshwater ecosystems by framing them a priori within a particular period of time. Alternatively, we also searched for the optimal number of visits and when they should be conducted. We developed single-species occupancy models to estimate the monthly probability of detection of pond-breeding amphibians during a four-year monitoring program. Our results revealed that detection probability was species-specific and changed among sampling visits within a breeding season and also among breeding seasons. Thereby, the optimization of biological surveys with minimal survey effort (a single visit) is not feasible as it proves impossible to select a priori an adequate sampling period that remains robust across years. Alternatively, a two-survey combination at the beginning of the sampling season yielded optimal results and constituted an acceptable compromise between sampling efficacy and survey effort. Our study provides evidence of the variability and uncertainty that likely affects the efficacy of monitoring surveys, highlighting the need of repeated sampling in both ecological studies and conservation management.

Relevância:

90.00% 90.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

We tested experimentally the effects of the presence of non-susceptible hosts on the infection with Trypanosoma cruzi of the vector Triatoma infestans. The experiment consisted in two treatments: with chickens, including two chickens (non-susceptible hosts) and two infected guinea pigs (susceptible hosts), and without chickens, including only two infected guinea pigs. The hosts were held unrestrained in individual metal cages inside a closed tulle chamber. A total of 200 uninfected T. infestans third instar nymphs were liberated in each replica, collected on day 14, and examined for infection and blood meal sources on day 32-36. The additional presence of chickens relative to infected guinea pigs: (a) significantly modified the spatial distribution of bugs; (b) increased significantly the likelihoods of having a detectable blood meal on any host and molting to the next instar; (c) did not affect the bugs' probability of death by predation; and (d) decreased significantly the overall percentage of T. infestans infected with T. cruzi. The bugs collected from inside or close to the guinea pigs' cages showed a higher infection rate (71-88%) than those collected from the chickens' cages (22-32%). Mixed blood meals on chickens and guinea pigs were detected in 12-21% of bugs. Although the presence of chickens would decrease the overall percentage of infected bugs in short term experiments, the high rate of host change of T. infestans would make this difference fade out if longer exposure times had been provided.

Relevância:

90.00% 90.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The analysis of the phytoplankton and environmental parameters of the time series in Alfacs and Fangar bays (north western Mediterranean) from 1990 to 2009 shows some trends. There is an increase in the average water column temperature, 0.11, 0.01, 0.80 and 0.23 ºC for spring, summer, fall and winter respectively in Alfacs Bay and 1.76, 0.71, 1.33, 0.89 ºC for spring, summer, fall and winter in Fangar Bay. The trends in phytoplankton populations show a shift in the timing of occurrence of Karlodinium spp. blooms and an increase of the Pseudo-nitzschia spp. abundances. There is a lack of correlation between the average seasonal temperatures and the toxic phytoplankton abundances.

Relevância:

90.00% 90.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Trypanosoma cruzi is a protozoan infection widely spread in Latin America, from Mexico in the north to Argentina and Chile in the south. The second most important way of acquiring the infection is by blood transfusion. Even if most countries of Latin America have law/decree/norms, that make mandatory the screening of blood donors for infectious diseases, including T. cruzi (El Salvador and Nicaragua do not have laws on the subject), there is usually no enforcement or it is very lax. Analysis of published serologic surveys of T. cruzi antibodies in blood donors done in 1993, indicating the number of donors and screening coverage for T. cruzi in ten countries of Central and South America indicated that the probability of receiving a potentially infected transfusion unit in each country varied from 1,096 per 10,000 transfusions in Bolivia, the highest, to 13.02 or 13.86 per 10,000 transfusions in Honduras and Venezuela respectively, where screening coverage was 100%. On the other hand the probability of transmitting a T. cruzi infected unit was 219/10,000 in Bolivia, 24/10,000 in Colombia, 17/10,000 in El Salvador, and around 2-12/10,000 for the seven other countries. Infectivity risks defined as the likelihood of being infected when receiving an infected transfusion unit were assumed to be 20% for T. cruzi. Based on this, estimates of the absolute number of infections induced by transfusion indicated that they were 832, 236, and 875 in Bolivia, Chile and Colombia respectively. In all the other countries varied from seven in Honduras to 85 in El Salvador. Since 1993, the situation has improved. At that time only Honduras and Venezuela screened 100% of donors, while seven countries, Argentina, Colombia, El Salvador, Honduras, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela, did the same in 1996. In Central America, without information from Guatemala, the screening of donors for T. cruzi prevented the transfusion of 1,481 infected units and the potential infection of 300 individuals in 1996. In the same year, in seven countries of South America, the screening prevented the transfusion of 36,017 infected units and 7, 201 potential cases of transfusional infection.