Adjoint goal-based error norms for adaptive mesh ocean modelling

Flow in the world's oceans occurs at a wide range of spatial scales, from a fraction of a metre up to many thousands of kilometers. In particular, regions of intense flow are often highly localised, for example, western boundary currents, equatorial jets, overflows and convective plumes. Conventional numerical ocean models generally use static meshes. The use of dynamically-adaptive meshes has many potential advantages but needs to be guided by an error measure reflecting the underlying physics. A method of defining an error measure to guide an adaptive meshing algorithm for unstructured tetrahedral finite elements, utilizing an adjoint or goal-based method, is described here. This method is based upon a functional, encompassing important features of the flow structure. The sensitivity of this functional, with respect to the solution variables, is used as the basis from which an error measure is derived. This error measure acts to predict those areas of the domain where resolution should be changed. A barotropic wind driven gyre problem is used to demonstrate the capabilities of the method. The overall objective of this work is to develop robust error measures for use in an oceanographic context which will ensure areas of fine mesh resolution are used only where and when they are required. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pesticides, preference heterogeneity and environmental taxes

In this paper we present results from two choice experiments (CE), designed to take account of the different negative externalities associated with pesticide use in agricultural production. For cereal production, the most probable impact of pesticide use is a reduction in environmental quality. For fruit and vegetable production, the negative externality is on consumer health. Using latent class models we find evidence of the presence of preference heterogeneity in addition to reasonably high willingness to pay (WTP) estimates for a reduction in the use of pesticides for both environmental quality and consumer health. To place our WTP estimates in a policy context we convert them into an equivalent pesticide tax by type of externality. Our tax estimates suggest that pesticide taxes based on the primary externality resulting from a particular mode of agricultural production are a credible policy option that warrants further consideration.

Mixed Logit Model Performance and Distributional Assumptions: Preferences and GM foods

Using mixed logit models to analyse choice data is common but requires ex ante specification of the functional forms of preference distributions. We make the case for greater use of bounded functional forms and propose the use of the Marginal Likelihood, calculated using Bayesian techniques, as a single measure of model performance across non nested mixed logit specifications. Using this measure leads to very different rankings of model specifications compared to alternative rule of thumb measures. The approach is illustrated using data from a choice experiment regarding GM food types which provides insights regarding the recent WTO dispute between the EU and the US, Canada and Argentina and whether labelling and trade regimes should be based on the production process or product composition.

Protocol for the PINCER trial: a cluster randomised trial comparing the effectiveness of a pharmacist-led IT-based intervention with simple feedback in reducing rates of clinically important errors in medicines management in general practices

Background: Medication errors are an important cause of morbidity and mortality in primary care. The aims of this study are to determine the effectiveness, cost effectiveness and acceptability of a pharmacist-led information-technology-based complex intervention compared with simple feedback in reducing proportions of patients at risk from potentially hazardous prescribing and medicines management in general (family) practice. Methods: Research subject group: "At-risk" patients registered with computerised general practices in two geographical regions in England. Design: Parallel group pragmatic cluster randomised trial. Interventions: Practices will be randomised to either: (i) Computer-generated feedback; or (ii) Pharmacist-led intervention comprising of computer-generated feedback, educational outreach and dedicated support. Primary outcome measures: The proportion of patients in each practice at six and 12 months post intervention: - with a computer-recorded history of peptic ulcer being prescribed non-selective non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs - with a computer-recorded diagnosis of asthma being prescribed beta-blockers - aged 75 years and older receiving long-term prescriptions for angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors or loop diuretics without a recorded assessment of renal function and electrolytes in the preceding 15 months. Secondary outcome measures; These relate to a number of other examples of potentially hazardous prescribing and medicines management. Economic analysis: An economic evaluation will be done of the cost per error avoided, from the perspective of the UK National Health Service (NHS), comparing the pharmacist-led intervention with simple feedback. Qualitative analysis: A qualitative study will be conducted to explore the views and experiences of health care professionals and NHS managers concerning the interventions, and investigate possible reasons why the interventions prove effective, or conversely prove ineffective. Sample size: 34 practices in each of the two treatment arms would provide at least 80% power (two-tailed alpha of 0.05) to demonstrate a 50% reduction in error rates for each of the three primary outcome measures in the pharmacist-led intervention arm compared with a 11% reduction in the simple feedback arm. Discussion: At the time of submission of this article, 72 general practices have been recruited (36 in each arm of the trial) and the interventions have been delivered. Analysis has not yet been undertaken.

Comparison of preferences for object properties in the rat using paired- and free-choice paradigms

A common method for testing preference for objects is to determine which of a pair of objects is approached first in a paired-choice paradigm. In comparison, many studies of preference for environmental enrichment (EE) devices have used paradigms in which total time spent with each of a pair of objects is used to determine preference. While each of these paradigms gives a specific measure of the preference for one object in comparison to another, neither method allows comparisons between multiple objects simultaneously. Since it is possible that several EE objects would be placed in a cage together to improve animal welfare, it is important to determine measures for rats' preferences in conditions that mimic this potential home cage environment. While it would be predicted that each type of measure would produce similar rankings of objects, this has never been tested empirically. In this study, we compared two paradigms: EE objects were either presented in pairs (paired-choice comparison) or four objects were presented simultaneously (simultaneous presentation comparison). We used frequency of first interaction and time spent with each object to rank the objects in the paired-choice experiment, and time spent with each object to rank the objects in the simultaneous presentation experiment. We also considered the behaviours elicited by the objects to determine if these might be contributing to object preference. We demonstrated that object ranking based on time spent with objects from the paired-choice experiment predicted object ranking in the simultaneous presentation experiment. Additionally, we confirmed that behaviours elicited were an important determinant of time spent with an object. This provides convergent evidence that both paired choice and simultaneous comparisons provide valid measures of preference for EE objects in rats. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Self-, parent-report and interview measures of obsessive-compulsive disorder in children and adolescents

Self-report measures of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) in children and adolescents are needed for practical evaluation of severity and treatment response. We compared the self- and parent-report Obsessional Compulsive Inventory Revised (CHOCI-R) to the interview-based Child Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale (CY-BOCS) in a clinical sample of 285 children and adolescents with OCD. Classical test theory and item-response theory were applied to compare the instruments. The self- and parent-report CHOCI-R had good internal consistency and were strongly related to each other. The self- and parent-report CHOCI-R severity scores correlated with the CY-BOCS (Pearson's r 0.55 and 0.45 respectively). The CY-BOCS discriminated better at the severe end of the spectrum. The CHOCI-R provided better discrimination in the mild to moderate range. The time-efficient self- and parent-report alternatives will enable routine measurement of OCD severity in clinical practice. Estimates of equivalent summed scores are provided to facilitate comparison. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multivariate analysis of the Fugl-Meyer outcome measures assessing the effectiveness of GENTLE/S robot-mediated stroke therapy

Background: Robot-mediated therapies offer entirely new approaches to neurorehabilitation. In this paper we present the results obtained from trialling the GENTLE/S neurorehabilitation system assessed using the upper limb section of the Fugl-Meyer ( FM) outcome measure. Methods: We demonstrate the design of our clinical trial and its results analysed using a novel statistical approach based on a multivariate analytical model. This paper provides the rational for using multivariate models in robot-mediated clinical trials and draws conclusions from the clinical data gathered during the GENTLE/S study. Results: The FM outcome measures recorded during the baseline ( 8 sessions), robot-mediated therapy ( 9 sessions) and sling-suspension ( 9 sessions) was analysed using a multiple regression model. The results indicate positive but modest recovery trends favouring both interventions used in GENTLE/S clinical trial. The modest recovery shown occurred at a time late after stroke when changes are not clinically anticipated. Conclusion: This study has applied a new method for analysing clinical data obtained from rehabilitation robotics studies. While the data obtained during the clinical trial is of multivariate nature, having multipoint and progressive nature, the multiple regression model used showed great potential for drawing conclusions from this study. An important conclusion to draw from this paper is that this study has shown that the intervention and control phase both caused changes over a period of 9 sessions in comparison to the baseline. This might indicate that use of new challenging and motivational therapies can influence the outcome of therapies at a point when clinical changes are not expected. Further work is required to investigate the effects arising from early intervention, longer exposure and intensity of the therapies. Finally, more function-oriented robot-mediated therapies or sling-suspension therapies are needed to clarify the effects resulting from each intervention for stroke recovery.

An assessment of aerosol‐cloud interactions in marine stratus clouds based on surface remote sensing

An assessment of aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) from ground-based remote sensing under coastal stratiform clouds is presented. The assessment utilizes a long-term, high temporal resolution data set from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program deployment at Pt. Reyes, California, United States, in 2005 to provide statistically robust measures of ACI and to characterize the variability of the measures based on variability in environmental conditions and observational approaches. The average ACIN (= dlnNd/dlna, the change in cloud drop number concentration with aerosol concentration) is 0.48, within a physically plausible range of 0–1.0. Values vary between 0.18 and 0.69 with dependence on (1) the assumption of constant cloud liquid water path (LWP), (2) the relative value of cloud LWP, (3) methods for retrieving Nd, (4) aerosol size distribution, (5) updraft velocity, and (6) the scale and resolution of observations. The sensitivity of the local, diurnally averaged radiative forcing to this variability in ACIN values, assuming an aerosol perturbation of 500 c-3 relative to a background concentration of 100 cm-3, ranges betwee-4 and -9 W -2. Further characterization of ACI and its variability is required to reduce uncertainties in global radiative forcing estimates.

PINCER trial: a cluster randomised trial comparing the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a pharmacist-led IT-based intervention with simple feedback in reducing rates of clinically important errors in medicines management in general practices

Background: Medication errors in general practice are an important source of potentially preventable morbidity and mortality. Building on previous descriptive, qualitative and pilot work, we sought to investigate the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and likely generalisability of a complex pharm acist-led IT-based intervention aiming to improve prescribing safety in general practice. Objectives: We sought to: • Test the hypothesis that a pharmacist-led IT-based complex intervention using educational outreach and practical support is more effective than simple feedback in reducing the proportion of patients at risk from errors in prescribing and medicines management in general practice. • Conduct an economic evaluation of the cost per error avoided, from the perspective of the National Health Service (NHS). • Analyse data recorded by pharmacists, summarising the proportions of patients judged to be at clinical risk, the actions recommended by pharmacists, and actions completed in the practices. • Explore the views and experiences of healthcare professionals and NHS managers concerning the intervention; investigate potential explanations for the observed effects, and inform decisions on the future roll-out of the pharmacist-led intervention • Examine secular trends in the outcome measures of interest allowing for informal comparison between trial practices and practices that did not participate in the trial contributing to the QRESEARCH database. Methods Two-arm cluster randomised controlled trial of 72 English general practices with embedded economic analysis and longitudinal descriptive and qualitative analysis. Informal comparison of the trial findings with a national descriptive study investigating secular trends undertaken using data from practices contributing to the QRESEARCH database. The main outcomes of interest were prescribing errors and medication monitoring errors at six- and 12-months following the intervention. Results: Participants in the pharmacist intervention arm practices were significantly less likely to have been prescribed a non-selective NSAID without a proton pump inhibitor (PPI) if they had a history of peptic ulcer (OR 0.58, 95%CI 0.38, 0.89), to have been prescribed a beta-blocker if they had asthma (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.58, 0.91) or (in those aged 75 years and older) to have been prescribed an ACE inhibitor or diuretic without a measurement of urea and electrolytes in the last 15 months (OR 0.51, 95% CI 0.34, 0.78). The economic analysis suggests that the PINCER pharmacist intervention has 95% probability of being cost effective if the decision-maker’s ceiling willingness to pay reaches £75 (6 months) or £85 (12 months) per error avoided. The intervention addressed an issue that was important to professionals and their teams and was delivered in a way that was acceptable to practices with minimum disruption of normal work processes. Comparison of the trial findings with changes seen in QRESEARCH practices indicated that any reductions achieved in the simple feedback arm were likely, in the main, to have been related to secular trends rather than the intervention. Conclusions Compared with simple feedback, the pharmacist-led intervention resulted in reductions in proportions of patients at risk of prescribing and monitoring errors for the primary outcome measures and the composite secondary outcome measures at six-months and (with the exception of the NSAID/peptic ulcer outcome measure) 12-months post-intervention. The intervention is acceptable to pharmacists and practices, and is likely to be seen as costeffective by decision makers.

Assessment of CloudSat reflectivity measurements and ice cloud properties using ground-based and airborne cloud radar observations

A quantitative assessment of Cloudsat reflectivities and basic ice cloud properties (cloud base, top, and thickness) is conducted in the present study from both airborne and ground-based observations. Airborne observations allow direct comparisons on a limited number of ocean backscatter and cloud samples, whereas the ground-based observations allow statistical comparisons on much longer time series but with some additional assumptions. Direct comparisons of the ocean backscatter and ice cloud reflectivities measured by an airborne cloud radar and Cloudsat during two field experiments indicate that, on average, Cloudsat measures ocean backscatter 0.4 dB higher and ice cloud reflectivities 1 dB higher than the airborne cloud radar. Five ground-based sites have also been used for a statistical evaluation of the Cloudsat reflectivities and basic cloud properties. From these comparisons, it is found that the weighted-mean difference ZCloudsat − ZGround ranges from −0.4 to +0.3 dB when a ±1-h time lag around the Cloudsat overpass is considered. Given the fact that the airborne and ground-based radar calibration accuracy is about 1 dB, it is concluded that the reflectivities of the spaceborne, airborne, and ground-based radars agree within the expected calibration uncertainties of the airborne and ground-based radars. This result shows that the Cloudsat radar does achieve the claimed sensitivity of around −29 dBZ. Finally, an evaluation of the tropical “convective ice” profiles measured by Cloudsat has been carried out over the tropical site in Darwin, Australia. It is shown that these profiles can be used statistically down to approximately 9-km height (or 4 km above the melting layer) without attenuation and multiple scattering corrections over Darwin. It is difficult to estimate if this result is applicable to all types of deep convective storms in the tropics. However, this first study suggests that the Cloudsat profiles in convective ice need to be corrected for attenuation by supercooled liquid water and ice aggregates/graupel particles and multiple scattering prior to their quantitative use.

Determination of the in vivo prebiotic potential of a maize based wholegrain breakfast cereal: a human feeding study

Epidemiological studies have shown an inverse relationship between risk of CVD and intake of whole grain (WG)-rich food. Regular consumption of breakfast cereals can provide not only an increase in dietary WG but also improvements to cardiovascular health. Various mechanisms have been proposed, including prebiotic modulation of the colonic microbiota. In the present study, the prebiotic activity of a maize-derived WG cereal (WGM) was evaluated in a double-blind, placebo-controlled human feeding study (n 32). For a period of 21 d, healthy men and women, mean age 32 (sd 8) years and BMI 23·3 (sd 0·58) kg/m2, consumed either 48 g/d WG cereal (WGM) or 48 g placebo cereal (non-whole grain (NWG)) in a crossover fashion. Faecal samples were collected at five points during the study on days 0, 21, 42, 63 and 84 (representing at baseline, after both treatments and both wash-out periods). Faecal bacteriology was assessed using fluorescence in situ hybridisation with 16S rRNA oligonucleotide probes specific for Bacteroides spp., Bifidobacterium spp., Clostridium histolyticum/perfringens subgroup, Lactobacillus–Enterococcus subgroup and total bacteria. After 21 d consumption of WGM, mean group levels of faecal bifidobacteria increased significantly compared with the control cereal (P = 0·001). After a 3-week wash-out period, bifidobacterial levels returned to pre-intervention levels. No statistically significant changes were observed in serum lipids, glucose or measures of faecal output. In conclusion, this WG maize-enriched breakfast cereal mediated a bifidogenic modulation of the gut microbiota, indicating a possible prebiotic mode of action

Normative, systemic and procedural aspects: a review of indicator‐based sustainability assessments in agriculture

Several methods for assessing the sustainability of agricultural systems have been developed. These methods do not fully: (i) take into account the multi‐functionality of agriculture; (ii) include multidimensionality; (iii) utilize and implement the assessment knowledge; and (iv) identify conflicting goals and trade‐offs. This paper reviews seven recently developed multidisciplinary indicator‐based assessment methods with respect to their contribution to these shortcomings. All approaches include (1) normative aspects such as goal setting, (2) systemic aspects such as a specification of scale of analysis, (3) a reproducible structure of the approach. The approaches can be categorized into three typologies. The top‐down farm assessments focus on field or farm assessment. They have a clear procedure for measuring the indicators and assessing the sustainability of the system, which allows for benchmarking across farms. The degree of participation is low, potentially affecting the implementation of the results negatively. The top‐down regional assessment assesses the on‐farm and the regional effects. They include some participation to increase acceptance of the results. However, they miss the analysis of potential trade‐offs. The bottom‐up, integrated participatory or transdisciplinary approaches focus on a regional scale. Stakeholders are included throughout the whole process assuring the acceptance of the results and increasing the probability of implementation of developed measures. As they include the interaction between the indicators in their system representation, they allow for performing a trade‐off analysis. The bottom‐up, integrated participatory or transdisciplinary approaches seem to better overcome the four shortcomings mentioned above.

Consumer-based brand equity conceptualisation and measurement: a literature review

Although there is a large body of research on brand equity, little in terms of a literature review has been published on this since Feldwick's (1996) paper. To address this gap, this paper brings together the scattered literature on consumer-based brand equity's conceptualisation and measurement. Measures of consumer-based brand equity are classified as either direct or indirect. Indirect measures assess consumer-based brand equity through its demonstrable dimensions and are superior from a diagnostic level. The paper concludes with directions for future research and managerial pointers for setting up a brand equity measurement system.

An overview of domestic energy models and a new approach with agent based modelling

Government targets for CO2 reductions are being progressively tightened, the Climate Change Act set the UK target as an 80% reduction by 2050 on 1990 figures. The residential sector accounts for about 30% of emissions. This paper discusses current modelling techniques in the residential sector: principally top-down and bottom-up. Top-down models work on a macro-economic basis and can be used to consider large scale economic changes; bottom-up models are detail rich to model technological changes. Bottom-up models demonstrate what is technically possible. However, there are differences between the technical potential and what is likely given the limited economic rationality of the typical householder. This paper recommends research to better understand individuals’ behaviour. Such research needs to include actual choices, stated preferences and opinion research to allow a detailed understanding of the individual end user. This increased understanding can then be used in an agent based model (ABM). In an ABM, agents are used to model real world actors and can be given a rule set intended to emulate the actions and behaviours of real people. This can help in understanding how new technologies diffuse. In this way a degree of micro-economic realism can be added to domestic carbon modelling. Such a model should then be of use for both forward projections of CO2 and to analyse the cost effectiveness of various policy measures.

An objective, niche-based approach to indicator species selection

1. Species-based indices are frequently employed as surrogates for wider biodiversity health and measures of environmental condition. Species selection is crucial in determining an indicators metric value and hence the validity of the interpretation of ecosystem condition and function it provides, yet an objective process to identify appropriate indicator species is frequently lacking. 2. An effective indicator needs to (i) be representative, reflecting the status of wider biodiversity; (ii) be reactive, acting as early-warning systems for detrimental changes in environmental conditions; (iii) respond to change in a predictable way. We present an objective, niche-based approach for species' selection, founded on a coarse categorisation of species' niche space and key resource requirements, which ensures the resultant indicator has these key attributes. 3. We use UK farmland birds as a case study to demonstrate this approach, identifying an optimal indicator set containing 12 species. In contrast to the 19 species included in the farmland bird index (FBI), a key UK biodiversity indicator that contributes to one of the UK Government's headline indicators of sustainability, the niche space occupied by these species fully encompasses that occupied by the wider community of 62 species. 4. We demonstrate that the response of these 12 species to land-use change is a strong correlate to that of the wider farmland bird community. Furthermore, the temporal dynamics of the index based on their population trends closely matches the population dynamics of the wider community. However, in both analyses, the magnitude of the change in our indicator was significantly greater, allowing this indicator to act as an early-warning system. 5. Ecological indicators are embedded in environmental management, sustainable development and biodiversity conservation policy and practice where they act as metrics against which progress towards national, regional and global targets can be measured. Adopting this niche-based approach for objective selection of indicator species will facilitate the development of sensitive and representative indices for a range of taxonomic groups, habitats and spatial scales.