A population survey of the penetrance of contact lens wear in Australia : rationale, methodology and results

Purpose: A population based, cross-sectional telephone survey was conducted to estimate the total penetrance of contact lens wear in Australia. Methods: A total of 42,749 households around Australia were randomly selected from the national electronic telephone directory based on postcode distribution. Before contact was attempted, letters of introduction were sent. The number of individuals and contact lens wearers in each household was ascertained and lens wearers were interviewed to determine details of lens type and mode of wear using a structured questionnaire. Results: Of households contacted, 59.2% (19,171/32,405) agreed to participate. Response rates were only marginally higher amongst households that first received a letter of introduction. In these households, 35,914 individuals were identified, of which, 1,798 were contact lens wearers. The penetrance of contact lens wear during the study period was 5.01% (95% CI: 4.78-5.24). Soft hydrogel lenses had the largest penetrance in the community, (66.7% of all wearers), however, their market share decreased significantly over the study period with increased uptake of newly introduced lens types. Conclusions: The penetrance of contact lens wear concurs with market estimates and equates to approximately 680,000 contact lens wearers aged between 15 and 64 years in Australia. The low response rate obtained in this study highlights the difficulty in contemporary use of telephone survey methodology

The population approach to falls injury prevention in older people : findings of a two community trial

Background: There is a sound rationale for the population-based approach to falls injury prevention but there is currently insufficient evidence to advise governments and communities on how they can use population-based strategies to achieve desired reductions in the burden of falls-related injury.---------- Aim: To quantify the effectiveness of a streamlined (and thus potentially sustainable and cost-effective), population-based, multi-factorial falls injury prevention program for people over 60 years of age.---------- Methods: Population-based falls-prevention interventions were conducted at two geographically-defined and separate Australian sites: Wide Bay, Queensland, and Northern Rivers, NSW. Changes in the prevalence of key risk factors and changes in rates of injury outcomes within each community were compared before and after program implementation and changes in rates of injury outcomes in each community were also compared with the rates in their respective States.---------- Results: The interventions in neither community substantially decreased the rate of falls-related injury among people aged 60 years or older, although there was some evidence of reductions in occurrence of multiple falls reported by women. In addition, there was some indication of improvements in fall-related risk factors, but the magnitudes were generally modest.---------- Conclusion: The evidence suggests that low intensity population-based falls prevention programs may not be as effective as those are intensively implemented.

The association between MC1R genotype and BRAF mutation status in cutaneous melanoma : findings from an Australian population

There is increasing epidemiological and molecular evidence that cutaneous melanomas arise through multiple causal pathways. The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between germline and somatic mutations in a population-based series of melanoma patients to reshape and refine the divergent pathway model for melanoma. Melanomas collected from 123 Australian patients were analyzed for melanocortin-1 receptor (MC1R) variants and mutations in the BRAF and NRAS genes. Detailed phenotypic and sun exposure data were systematically collected from all patients. We found that BRAF-mutant melanomas were significantly more likely from younger patients and those with high nevus counts, and were more likely in melanomas with adjacent neval remnants. Conversely, BRAF-mutant melanomas were significantly less likely in people with high levels of lifetime sun exposure. We observed no association between germline MC1R status and somatic BRAF mutations in melanomas from this population. BRAF-mutant melanomas have different origins from other cutaneous melanomas. These data support the divergent pathways hypothesis for melanoma, which may require a reappraisal of targeted cancer prevention activities.

Utility of routine data sources for feedback on the quality of cancer care: an assessment based on clinical practice guidelines

Background Not all cancer patients receive state-of-the-art care and providing regular feedback to clinicians might reduce this problem. The purpose of this study was to assess the utility of various data sources in providing feedback on the quality of cancer care. Methods Published clinical practice guidelines were used to obtain a list of processes-of-care of interest to clinicians. These were assigned to one of four data categories according to their availability and the marginal cost of using them for feedback. Results Only 8 (3%) of 243 processes-of-care could be measured using population-based registry or administrative inpatient data (lowest cost). A further 119 (49%) could be measured using a core clinical registry, which contains information on important prognostic factors (e.g., clinical stage, physiological reserve, hormone-receptor status). Another 88 (36%) required an expanded clinical registry or medical record review; mainly because they concerned long-term management of disease progression (recurrences and metastases) and 28 (11.5%) required patient interview or audio-taping of consultations because they involved information sharing between clinician and patient. Conclusion The advantages of population-based cancer registries and administrative inpatient data are wide coverage and low cost. The disadvantage is that they currently contain information on only a few processes-of-care. In most jurisdictions, clinical cancer registries, which can be used to report on many more processes-of-care, do not cover smaller hospitals. If we are to provide feedback about all patients, not just those in larger academic hospitals with the most developed data systems, then we need to develop sustainable population-based data systems that capture information on prognostic factors at the time of initial diagnosis and information on management of disease progression.

Prevalence and prognostic significance of secondary lymphedema following breast cancer

Background The adverse consequences of lymphedema following breast cancer in relation to physical function and quality of life are clear; however, its potential relationship with survival has not been investigated. Our purpose was to determine the prevalence of lymphedema and associated upper-body symptoms at 6 years following breast cancer and to examine the prognostic significance of lymphedema with respect to overall 6-year survival (OS). Methods and Results A population-based sample of Australian women (n=287) diagnosed with invasive, unilateral breast cancer was followed for a median of 6.6 years and prospectively assessed for lymphedema (using bioimpedance spectroscopy [BIS], sum of arm circumferences [SOAC], and self-reported arm swelling), a range of upper-body symptoms, and vital status. OS was measured from date of diagnosis to date of death or last follow-up. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to calculate OS and Cox proportional hazards models quantified the risk associated with lymphedema. Approximately 45% of women had reported at least one moderate to extreme symptom at 6.6 years postdiagnosis, while 34% had shown clinical evidence of lymphedema, and 48% reported arm swelling at least once since baseline assessment. A total of 27 (9.4%) women died during the follow-up period, and lymphedema, diagnosed by BIS or SOAC between 6–18 months postdiagnosis, predicted mortality (BIS: HR=2.5; 95% CI: 0.9, 6.8, p=0.08; SOAC: 3.0; 95% CI: 1.1, 8.7, p=0.04). There was no association (HR=1.2; 95% CI: 0.5, 2.6, p=0.68) between self-reported arm swelling and OS. Conclusions These findings suggest that lymphedema may influence survival following breast cancer treatment and warrant further investigation in other cancer cohorts and explication of a potential underlying biology.

Seasonal variation in cardiovascular disease risk factors in a subarctic population : the Tromso Study 1979-2008

Background Seasonal changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors may be due to exposure to seasonal environmental variables like temperature and acute infections or seasonal behavioural patterns in physical activity and diet. Investigating the seasonal pattern of risk factors should help determine the causes of the seasonal pattern in CVD. Few studies have investigated the seasonal variation in risk factors using repeated measurements from the same individual, which is important as individual and population seasonal patterns may differ. Methods The authors investigated the seasonal pattern in systolic and diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, body weight, total cholesterol, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, C reactive protein and fibrinogen. Measurements came from 38 037 participants in the population-based cohort, the Tromsø Study, examined up to eight times from 1979 to 2008. Individual and population seasonal patterns were estimated using a cosinor in a mixed model. Results All risk factors had a highly statistically significant seasonal pattern with a peak time in winter, except for triglycerides (peak in autumn), C reactive protein and fibrinogen (peak in spring). The sizes of the seasonal variations were clinically modest. Conclusions Although the authors found highly statistically significant individual seasonal patterns for all risk factors, the sizes of the changes were modest, probably because this subarctic population is well adapted to a harsh climate. Better protection against seasonal risk factors like cold weather could help reduce the winter excess in CVD observed in milder climates.

Fertility and infertility : studies in reproductive epidemiology in Australia

Worldwide, there are few large-scale epidemiological studies on infertility. In Australia, population-based research on infertility is limited to a few small-scale studies. Therefore, the prevalence of infertility and unmet need for specialist medical advice and treatment cannot be estimated reliably. Women who have used assisted reproductive technologies (ART) are recorded in treatment registries. However, there are many infertile women who are excluded from these clinical populations because they neither seek advice nor use treatment. The thesis was based on a biopsychosocial model of health and used the methods of reproductive epidemiology to address the lack of national data on the prevalence of infertility in Australia. Firstly, numbers of births and pregnancy losses were investigated in two generations of women participating in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health (ALSWH). The ALSWH is a broad-ranging, longitudinal examination of biological, psychological and social factors that impact on women’s health and wellbeing. Women from three age cohorts were randomly sampled from the population using the universal public health insurance (i.e., Medicare) database and ALSWH participants were representative of the female population. However, the studies in the thesis only involved data from two cohorts. The younger cohort were born in 1973-78 and completed up to four mailed surveys between 1996 (when they were aged 18-23 years, n=14247) and 2006 (28-33 years, n=9145). The mid-aged cohort were born in 1946-51 and completed four mailed surveys between 1996 (when they were aged 45-50 years n=13715) and 2004 (53-58 years, n=10905). Compared to other studies that focus on outcomes of single pregnancies, these studies included all pregnancy outcomes by developing comprehensive reproductive histories for each woman. Pregnancy outcomes included birth, miscarriage, stillbirth, termination and ectopic pregnancy. Women in the youngest cohort (born in 1973-78) were only just reaching their peak childbearing years and many (44%) had yet to report their first pregnancy outcome. Women from the mid-aged cohort (born 1946-51) had completed their reproductive lives and 92% were able to report on their lifetime pregnancy outcomes. Pregnancy losses, especially miscarriage, were common for both generations of women. Secondly, the prevalence of infertility, seeking medical advice and using treatment was identified for these two generations of women. For the older generation, the lifetime prevalence of infertility and demand for treatment was investigated in the context of the specialist medical services which became available circa 1980. By this time, however, most of these older women had already been pregnant and completed their families. For women who experienced infertility (11%), their options for advice and treatment were limited and less than half (42%) had used any treatment. More recently for the younger generation of women, who were aged 28-33 years in 2006, specialist advice and treatment were extensively available. Among women who had tried to conceive or had been pregnant (n=5936), 17% had experienced infertility and the majority (72%) were able to access medical advice. However, after seeking advice only half of these infertile women had used treatment with fertility hormones or in vitro fertilisation (IVF). Overall for infertile women aged up to 33 years, only one-third had used these treatments. Thirdly, the barriers to accessing medical advice and using treatment for infertility were identified for women aged less than 34 years. Among a community sample of infertile women aged 28-33 years (ALSWH participants), self-reported depression was found to be a barrier to accessing medical advice. The characteristics of these infertile women in the community who had (n=121) or had not (n=110) used treatment were compared to infertile women aged 27-33 years (n=59) attending four fertility clinics. Compared to infertile women in the community, living in major cities and having private health insurance were associated with early use of treatment for infertility at specialist clinics by women aged <34 years. In contrast to most clinical studies of IVF, the final study reported in the thesis took into account repeated IVF cycles and the impact of women’s individual histories on IVF outcomes. Among 121 infertile women (aged 27-46 years) who had 286 IVF cycles, older age and prolonged use of the oral contraceptive pill were associated with fewer eggs collected. Further, women in particular occupations had lower proportions of eggs fertilised normally than women in other occupational groups. These studies form the first large-scale epidemiological examination of infertility in Australia. The finding that two-thirds of women with infertility had not used treatment indicates that there is an unmet need for specialist treatment in women aged less than 34 years. However, barriers to accessing treatment prevent women using ART at a younger age when there is a higher chance of pregnancy.

Estimation of reference values for dioxin, furan, and PCB congener concentrations for the Australian population

Population-representative data for dioxin and PCB congener concentrations are available for the Australian population based on measurements in age- and gender-specific serum pools.1 Such data provide a basis for characterizing the mean concentrations of these compounds in the population, but do not provide information on the inter-individual variation in serum concentrations that may exist in the population within an age- and gender-specific group. Such variation may occur due to inter-individual differences in long-term exposure levels or elimination rates. Reference values are estimates of upper percentiles (often the 95th percentile) of measured values in a defined population that can be used to evaluate data from individuals in the population in order to identify concentrations that are elevated, for example, from occupational exposures.2 The objective of this analysis is to estimate reference values corresponding to the 95th percentile (RV95s) for Australia on an age-specific basis for individual dioxin-like congeners based on measurements in serum pools from Toms and Mueller (2010).

The relationship between anti-mullerian hormone in women receiving fertility assessments and age at menopause in subfertile women : evidence from large population studies

Context: Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) concentration reflects ovarian aging and is argued to be a useful predictor of age at menopause (AMP). It is hypothesized that AMH falling below a critical threshold corresponds to follicle depletion, which results in menopause. With this threshold, theoretical predictions of AMP can be made. Comparisons of such predictions with observed AMP from population studies support the role for AMH as a forecaster of menopause. Objective: The objective of the study was to investigate whether previous relationships between AMH and AMP are valid using a much larger data set. Setting: AMH was measured in 27 563 women attending fertility clinics. Study Design: From these data a model of age-related AMH change was constructed using a robust regression analysis. Data on AMP from subfertile women were obtained from the population-based Prospect-European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (Prospect- EPIC) cohort (n � 2249). By constructing a probability distribution of age at which AMH falls below a critical threshold and fitting this to Prospect-EPIC menopausal age data using maximum likelihood, such a threshold was estimated. Main Outcome: The main outcome was conformity between observed and predicted AMP. Results: To get a distribution of AMH-predicted AMP that fit the Prospect-EPIC data, we found the critical AMH threshold should vary among women in such a way that women with low age-specific AMH would have lower thresholds, whereas women with high age-specific AMH would have higher thresholds (mean 0.075 ng/mL; interquartile range 0.038–0.15 ng/mL). Such a varying AMH threshold for menopause is a novel and biologically plausible finding. AMH became undetectable (�0.2 ng/mL) approximately 5 years before the occurrence of menopause, in line with a previous report. Conclusions: The conformity of the observed and predicted distributions of AMP supports the hypothesis that declining population averages of AMH are associated with menopause, making AMH an excellent candidate biomarker for AMP prediction. Further research will help establish the accuracy of AMH levels to predict AMP within individuals.

Prevalence and predictors of refractive error in a genetically isolated population : the Norfolk Island Eye Study

BACKGROUND: We aimed to determine the prevalence and associations of refractive error on Norfolk Island. DESIGN: Population-based study on Norfolk Island, South Pacific. PARTICIPANTS: All permanent residents on Norfolk Island aged ≥ 15 years were invited to participate. METHODS: Patients underwent non-cycloplegic autorefraction, slit-lamp biomicroscope examination and biometry assessment. Only phakic eyes were analysed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence and multivariate associations of refractive error and myopia. RESULTS: There were 677 people (645 right phakic eyes, 648 left phakic eyes) aged ≥ 15 years were included in this study. Mean age of participants was 51.1 (standard deviation 15.7; range 15-81). Three hundred and seventy-six people (55.5%) were female. Adjusted to the 2006 Norfolk Island population, prevalence estimates of refractive error were as follows: myopia (mean spherical equivalent ≥ -1.0 D) 10.1%, hypermetropia (mean spherical equivalent ≥ 1.0 D) 36.6%, and astigmatism 17.7%. Significant independent predictors of myopia in the multivariate model were lower age (P < 0.001), longer axial length (P < 0.001), shallower anterior chamber depth (P = 0.031) and increased corneal curvature (P < 0.001). Significant independent predictors of refractive error were increasing age (P < 0.001), male gender (P = 0.009), Pitcairn ancestry (P = 0.041), cataract (P < 0.001), longer axial length (P < 0.001) and decreased corneal curvature (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of myopia on Norfolk Island is lower than on mainland Australia, and the Norfolk Island population demonstrates ethnic differences in the prevalence estimates. Given the significant associations between refractive error and several ocular biometry characteristics, Norfolk Island may be a useful population in which to find the genetic basis of refractive error.

Multi-site study of additive genetic effects on fractional anisotropy of cerebral white matter: Comparing meta and megaanalytical approaches for data pooling

Combining datasets across independent studies can boost statistical power by increasing the numbers of observations and can achieve more accurate estimates of effect sizes. This is especially important for genetic studies where a large number of observations are required to obtain sufficient power to detect and replicate genetic effects. There is a need to develop and evaluate methods for joint-analytical analyses of rich datasets collected in imaging genetics studies. The ENIGMA-DTI consortium is developing and evaluating approaches for obtaining pooled estimates of heritability through meta-and mega-genetic analytical approaches, to estimate the general additive genetic contributions to the intersubject variance in fractional anisotropy (FA) measured from diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). We used the ENIGMA-DTI data harmonization protocol for uniform processing of DTI data from multiple sites. We evaluated this protocol in five family-based cohorts providing data from a total of 2248 children and adults (ages: 9-85) collected with various imaging protocols. We used the imaging genetics analysis tool, SOLAR-Eclipse, to combine twin and family data from Dutch, Australian and Mexican-American cohorts into one large "mega-family". We showed that heritability estimates may vary from one cohort to another. We used two meta-analytical (the sample-size and standard-error weighted) approaches and a mega-genetic analysis to calculate heritability estimates across-population. We performed leave-one-out analysis of the joint estimates of heritability, removing a different cohort each time to understand the estimate variability. Overall, meta- and mega-genetic analyses of heritability produced robust estimates of heritability.

Non-melanoma skin cancer: Ten years of cancer-registry-based surveillance

The Tasmanian Cancer Registry carried out population-based surveillance of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) from 1978 to 1987. A total of 8,651 NMSC were recorded in 7,160 individuals, representing an age-standardized rate of 161/100,000 per year. Ninety-four percent of cases were based on histological diagnosis. Incidence of basal-cell carcinoma (BCC) was higher than the incidence of squamous-cell carcinoma (SCC). The incidence of NMSC was twice as high in men as in women. Incidence increased substantially with age, more markedly for SCC than BCC. For most body sites, BCC was more frequent, but on highly exposed sites such as the backs of hands, lower limbs in women and ears in men, the incidence of SCC was higher. There was an overall increase of 7% per year in the age-standardized incidence rate of NMSC. The increase was more marked for BCC than for SCC, and was consistent across age groups and both sexes. A first NMSC during the study period was associated with a 12-fold increase among men and a 15-fold increase among women in the risk of development of a new NMSC within 5 years, when compared with the NMSC incidence recorded for the population as a whole.

Predicting health programme participation: A gravity‐based, hierarchical modelling approach

Statistical analyses of health program participation seek to address a number of objectives compatible with the evaluation of demand for current resources. In this spirit, a spatial hierarchical model is developed for disentangling patterns in participation at the small area level, as a function of population-based demand and additional variation. For the former, a constrained gravity model is proposed to quantify factors associated with spatial choice and account for competition effects, for programs delivered by multiple clinics. The implications of gravity model misspecification within a mixed effects framework are also explored. The proposed model is applied to participation data from a no-fee mammography program in Brisbane, Australia. Attention is paid to the interpretation of various model outputs and their relevance for public health policy.

Early-onset depressive disorders,related mental health disorders and substance use-A prospective : longitudinal study of Finnish twins born 1983-1987

Early-onset psychiatric illnesses effects scatter to academic achievements as well as functioning in familial and social environments. From a public health point of view, depressive disorders are the most significant mental health disorders that begin in adolescence. Using prospective and longitudinal design, this study aimed to increase the understanding of early-onset depressive disorders, related mental health disorders and developing substance use in a large population-derived sample of adolescent Finnish twins. The participants of this study, FinnTwin12, an ongoing longitudinal population-based study, came from Finnish families with twins born in 1983-87 (exhaustive of five birth cohorts, identified from Finland s Central Population Register). With follow-up ongoing at age 20-24, this thesis assessed adolescent mental health in the first three waves, starting from baseline age 11-12 to follow-ups at age 14 and 17½. Some 5600 twins participated in questionnaire assessments of a wide range of health related behaviors. Mental health was further assessed among an intensively studied subsample of 1852 adolescents, who completed also professionally administered interviews at age 14, which provided data for full DSM-IV/III-R (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Health disorders, 4th and 3rd editions) diagnoses. The participation rates of the study were 87-92%. The results of the study suggest, that the diagnostic criteria for major depressive disorder (MDD) may not capture youth with clinically significant early-onset depressive conditions outside clinical settings. Milder cases of depression, namely adolescents fulfilling the diagnostic criteria for minor depressive disorder, a qualitatively similar condition to MDD with fewer symptoms are also associated with marked suicidal thoughts, plans and attempts, recurrences and a high degree of comorbidity. Prospectively and longitudinally, early-onset depressive disorders were of substantial importance in the context of other mental health disorders and substance use behaviors: These data from a large population-derived sample established a substantial overlap between early-onset depressive disorders and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in adolescent females, both of them significantly predictive for development of substance use among girls. Only in females baseline DSM-IV ADHD symptoms were strong predictors of alcohol abuse and dependence and illicit drug use at age 14 and frequent alcohol use and illicit drug use at age 17.½ when conduct disorder and previous substance use were controlled for. Early-onset depressive disorders were also prospectively and longitudinally associated to daily smoking behavior, smokeless tobacco use, frequent alcohol use and illicit drug use and eating disorders. Analysis of discordant twins suggested that these predictive associations were independent of familial confounds, such as family income, structure and parental models. In sum, early-onset depressive disorders predict subsequent involvement of substance use and psychiatric morbidity. A heightened risk for substance use is substantial also among those depressed below categorical diagnosis of MDD. Whether early recognition and interventions among these young people hold potential for substance use prevention further in their lives has potential public health significance and calls for more research. Data from this population-derived sample with balanced representation of boys and girls, suggested that boys and girls with ADHD behaviors may differ from each other in their vulnerability to substance use and depressive disorders: the data suggest more adverse substance use outcome for girls that was not attenuated by conduct disorder or previous substance use. Further, the prospective associations of early-onset depressive disorders and future elevated levels of addictive substance use is not explained by familial factors supporting future substance use, which could have important implications for substance use prevention.

Concordance of genetic risk across migraine subgroups: Impact on current and future genetic association studies

BACKGROUND There has been intensive debate whether migraine with aura (MA) and migraine without aura (MO) should be considered distinct subtypes or part of the same disease spectrum. There is also discussion to what extent migraine cases collected in specialised headache clinics differ from cases from population cohorts, and how female cases differ from male cases with respect to their migraine. To assess the genetic overlap between these migraine subgroups, we examined genome-wide association (GWA) results from analysis of 23,285 migraine cases and 95,425 population-matched controls. METHODS Detailed heterogeneity analysis of single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) effects (odds ratios) between migraine subgroups was performed for the 12 independent SNP loci significantly associated (p < 5 x 10(-8); thus surpassing the threshold for genome-wide significance) with migraine susceptibility. Overall genetic overlap was assessed using SNP effect concordance analysis (SECA) at over 23,000 independent SNPs. RESULTS: Significant heterogeneity of SNP effects (p het < 1.4 x 10(-3)) was observed between the MA and MO subgroups (for SNP rs9349379), and between the clinic- and population-based subgroups (for SNPs rs10915437, rs6790925 and rs6478241). However, for all 12 SNPs the risk-increasing allele was the same, and SECA found the majority of genome-wide SNP effects to be in the same direction across the subgroups. CONCLUSIONS Any differences in common genetic risk across these subgroups are outweighed by the similarities. Meta-analysis of additional migraine GWA datasets, regardless of their major subgroup composition, will identify new susceptibility loci for migraine.