Uncertainty, electoral incentives and political myopia

We study the determinants of political myopia in a rational model of electoral accountability where the key elements are informational frictions and uncertainty. We build aframework where political ability is ex-ante unknown and policy choices are not perfectlyobservable. On the one hand, elections improve accountability and allow to keep well-performing incumbents. On the other, politicians invest too little in costly policies withfuture returns in an attempt to signal high ability and increase their reelection probability.Contrary to the conventional wisdom, uncertainty reduces political myopia and may, undersome conditions, increase social welfare. We use the model to study how political rewardscan be set so as to maximise social welfare and the desirability of imposing a one-term limitto governments. The predictions of our theory are consistent with a number of stylised factsand with a new empirical observation documented in this paper: aggregate uncertainty, measured by economic volatility, is associated to better fiscal discipline in a panel of 20 OECDcountries.

Good practice for dialogue and communication as strategic principle for policing political manifestations in Europe (GODIAC):field study handbook

This handbook describes the peer review methodology that was applied at the GODIAC project fi eld studies1. The peer review evaluation method as initiated by Otto Adang in the Netherlands and further developed in a European football context (Adang & Brown, 2008) involves experienced police offi cers cooperating with researchers to perform observational fi eld studies to identify good practices and learning points for public order management. The handbook builds on the GODIAC seminars and workshops, for the fi eld study members, which took place in September 2010, January 2012 and January 2013. The handbook has been discussed in the project group and in the steering committee. It is primarily written for the GODIAC fi eld study members as background material for understanding the fi eld study process and for clarifying the different responsibilities that enable active participation in the fi eld study. The handbook has been developed during the project period and incorporates learning points and developments of the peer review method. The handbook aims at promoting the use of fi eld studies for evaluation of policing major events.

Good practice for dialogue and communication as strategic principle for policing political manifestations in Europe (GODIAC):the anthology

The volume is divided into two parts; the fi rst deals with issues related to the police, and the second addresses issues related to demonstrators and protesters. We hope that this volume will provide further insight into issues associated with policing at major events and shed light on the complexity of the organisations, motives, and strategies in play whenever protester groups are involved.

Good practice for dialogue and communication as strategic principle for policing political manifestations in Europe (GODIAC):recommendations for policing political manifestations in Europe

This report summarises the fi eld study results of the project ’Good practice for dialogue and communication as strategic principles for policing political manifestations in Europe’ (GODIAC).1 The overall idea was to integrate operative police work, research and training within the fi eld and to build international and institutional networks, ensuring and recognising the responsibilities of the organisers. The purpose of the GODIAC project was to contribute to the development of a European approach to policing political manifestations.

Kinship, ritual kinship and political milieus in an alpine Valley in 19th century

In my paper I will present some results about ritual kinship and political mobilization of popular groups in an alpine Valley: the Val de Bagnes, in the Swiss canton of Valais. There are two major reasons to choose the Val de Bagnes for our inquiry about social networks: the existence of sharp political and social conflicts during the 18th and the 19th century and the availability of almost systematic genealogical data between 1700 and 1900. The starting point of my research focuses on this question: what role did kinship and ritual kinship play in the political mobilization of popular groups and in the organization of competing factions? This question allows us to shed light on some other uses and meanings of ritual kinship in the local society. Was ritual kinship a significant instrument for economic cooperation? Or was it a channel for patronage or for privileged social contacts? The analysis highlights the importance of kinship and godparentage for the building of homogeneous social and political networks. If we consider transactions between individuals, the analysis of 19th century Val de Bagnes gives the impression of quite open networks. Men and women tried to diversify their relations in order to avoid strong dependency from powerful patrons. Nevertheless, when we consider the family networks, we can notice that most relations took place in a structured social space or a specific "milieu", were intense contacts enhanced trust, although political allegiances and social choices were not fully predictable on the basis of such preferential patterns. In a politically conflictual society, like 19th century Bagnes, ritual kinship interacted with kinship solidarities and ideological factors shaping dense social networks mostly based on a common political orientation. Such milieus sustained the building of political factions, which show surprising stability over time. In this sense, milieus are important factors to understand political and religious polarization in 19th century Switzerland.

Changes in the use of broad-spectrum antibiotics after cefepime shortage: a time series analysis.

The original cefepime product was withdrawn from the Swiss market in January 2007, and replaced by a generic 10 months later. The goals of the study were to assess the impact of this cefepime shortage on the use and costs of alternative broad-spectrum antibiotics, on antibiotic policy, and on resistance of Pseudomonas aeruginosa towards carbapenems, ceftazidime and piperacillin-tazobactam. A generalized regression-based interrupted time series model assessed how much the shortage changed the monthly use and costs of cefepime and of selected alternative broad-spectrum antibiotics (ceftazidime, imipenem-cilastatin, meropenem, piperacillin-tazobactam) in 15 Swiss acute care hospitals from January 2005 to December 2008. Resistance of P. aeruginosa was compared before and after the cefepime shortage. There was a statistically significant increase in the consumption of piperacillin-tazobactam in hospitals with definitive interruption of cefepime supply, and of meropenem in hospitals with transient interruption of cefepime supply. Consumption of each alternative antibiotic tended to increase during the cefepime shortage and to decrease when the cefepime generic was released. These shifts were associated with significantly higher overall costs. There was no significant change in hospitals with uninterrupted cefepime supply. The alternative antibiotics for which an increase in consumption showed the strongest association with a progression of resistance were the carbapenems. The use of alternative antibiotics after cefepime withdrawal was associated with a significant increase in piperacillin-tazobactam and meropenem use and in overall costs, and with a decrease in susceptibility of P. aeruginosa in hospitals. This warrants caution with regard to shortages and withdrawals of antibiotics.

Mutations in the human UBR1 gene and the associated phenotypic spectrum.

Johanson-Blizzard syndrome (JBS) is a rare, autosomal recessive disorder characterized by exocrine pancreatic insufficiency, typical facial features, dental anomalies, hypothyroidism, sensorineural hearing loss, scalp defects, urogenital and anorectal anomalies, short stature, and cognitive impairment of variable degree. This syndrome is caused by a defect of the E3 ubiquitin ligase UBR1, which is part of the proteolytic N-end rule pathway. Herein, we review previously reported (n = 29) and a total of 31 novel UBR1 mutations in relation to the associated phenotype in patients from 50 unrelated families. Mutation types include nonsense, frameshift, splice site, missense, and small in-frame deletions consistent with the hypothesis that loss of UBR1 protein function is the molecular basis of JBS. There is an association of missense mutations and small in-frame deletions with milder physical abnormalities and a normal intellectual capacity, thus suggesting that at least some of these may represent hypomorphic UBR1 alleles. The review of clinical data of a large number of molecularly confirmed JBS cases allows us to define minimal clinical criteria for the diagnosis of JBS. For all previously reported and novel UBR1 mutations together with their clinical data, a mutation database has been established at LOVD.

Characterizing the connectome in schizophrenia with diffusion spectrum imaging.

Schizophrenia is a complex psychiatric disorder characterized by disabling symptoms and cognitive deficit. Recent neuroimaging findings suggest that large parts of the brain are affected by the disease, and that the capacity of functional integration between brain areas is decreased. In this study we questioned (i) which brain areas underlie the loss of network integration properties observed in the pathology, (ii) what is the topological role of the affected regions within the overall brain network and how this topological status might be altered in patients, and (iii) how white matter properties of tracts connecting affected regions may be disrupted. We acquired diffusion spectrum imaging (a technique sensitive to fiber crossing and slow diffusion compartment) data from 16 schizophrenia patients and 15 healthy controls, and investigated their weighted brain networks. The global connectivity analysis confirmed that patients present disrupted integration and segregation properties. The nodal analysis allowed identifying a distributed set of brain nodes affected in the pathology, including hubs and peripheral areas. To characterize the topological role of this affected core, we investigated the brain network shortest paths layout, and quantified the network damage after targeted attack toward the affected core. The centrality of the affected core was compromised in patients. Moreover the connectivity strength within the affected core, quantified with generalized fractional anisotropy and apparent diffusion coefficient, was altered in patients. Taken together, these findings suggest that the structural alterations and topological decentralization of the affected core might be major mechanisms underlying the schizophrenia dysconnectivity disorder. Hum Brain Mapp, 36:354-366, 2015. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Nouveau spectre des troubles cognitifs liés à l'infection par le VIH à l'ère des trithérapies [New spectrum of HIV-associated cognitive disorders in the HAART era]

Highly active anti-retroviral therapy (HAART) has almost abolished HIV-related mortality and serious opportunistic diseases; among them, AIDS-related dementia. However, minor forms of cognitive dysfunction, have not disappeared, and even increased in frequency. Ageing of HIV+ patients, insufficient penetration of anti-viral drugs into the brain with continuous low-grade viral production and inflammation may play a role. Minor cognitive dysfunction in HIV infection shares some clinical and pathophysiological features with neuro-degenerative diseases, in particular Alzheimers disease. It can thus be postulated that, such in Alzheimer disease, anti-cholinesterase drugs might also be efficacious in AIDS-related minor cognitive dysfunction. This hypothesis has not been tested yet however A clinical trial using ravistigmine is starting this spring in patients with HIV-associated cognitive dysfunction in Geneva and Lausanne.