TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE LOCAL ADVANTAGE? - Investment value of the analyst local advantage in the Finnish stock market in 2006–2014

An investor can either conduct independent analysis or rely on the analyses of others. Stock analysts provide markets with expectations regarding particular securities. However, analysts have different capabilities and resources, of which investors are seldom cognizant. The local advantage refers to the advantage stemming from cultural or geographical proximity to securities analyzed. The research has confirmed that local agents are generally more accurate or produce excess returns. This thesis tests the investment value of the local advantage regarding Finnish stocks via target price data. The empirical section investigates the local advantage from several aspects. It is discovered that local analysts were more focused on certain sectors generally located close to consumer markets. Market reactions to target price revisions were generally insignificant with the exception to local positive target prices. Both local and foreign target prices were overly optimistic and exhibited signs of herding. Neither group could be identified as a leader or follower of new information. Additionally, foreign price change expectations were more in line with the quantitative models and ideas such as beta or return mean reversion. The locals were more accurate than foreign analysts in 5 out of 9 sectors and vice versa in one. These sectors were somewhat in line with coverage decisions and buttressed the idea of local advantage stemming from proximity to markets, not to headquarters. The accuracy advantage was dependent on sample years and on the measure used. Local analysts ranked magnitudes of price changes more accurately in optimistic and foreign analysts in pessimistic target prices. Directional accuracy of both groups was under 50% and target prices held no linear predictive power. Investment value of target prices were tested by forming mean-variance efficient portfolios. Parallel to differing accuracies in the levels of expectations foreign portfolio performed better when short sales were allowed and local better when disallowed. Both local and non-local portfolios performed worse than a passive index fund, albeit not statistically significantly. This was in line with previously reported low overall accuracy and different accuracy profiles. Refraining from estimating individual stock returns altogether produced statistically significantly higher Sharpe ratios compared to local or foreign portfolios. The proposed method of testing the investment value of target prices of different groups suffered from some inconsistencies. Nevertheless, these results are of interest to investors seeking the advice of security analysts.

Feeding rates, parental investment, and brood reduction in Caspian terns (Sterna caspia)

Fresh egg-weights and feeding rates to chicks were related to chick survival as one means of quantifying apportionment of parental investment wi thin broods of Caspian Terns (SterDI casRla) at a colony in Georgian Bay. Lake Huron, during 1978 and 1979. Ftrst-laid eggs from 2-egg clutches were Significantly heavier and usually hatched one to three days earlier than second-laid eggs in both years of the study. In both years, first-hatched chicks were larger and generally better fed than second-hatched siblings. The disparity between feedIng rates of first- and second-hatched ehicks was greater in 1979. Brood feeding I rates correlated positively with the percentage of food fed to the least-fed sibUng through the period of B-chick ages zero to 10 days in 1978. I suggest that after this age period, parental control over whlcb cbick was fed diminished. In 1978, 10 of 16 secondhatched chicks were fed more than their older siblings during their first 5 days. 'lb.is is interpreted as a parental response to reduce the competitive advantage of the larger first-hatched chicks. Most chick losses were apparently caused by starvation or preda. tion. In 1979, seeorvl-hatched chick disappearance (due to predation) was -related to low feeding rates, whereas first-hatched chick disappearance was related to low fresh egg-weights.. First-hatched chicks survived better than second-hatched chicks both years, and more pairs fledged two chicks in 1978. Maximum estimated feeding rates at the nest and fledging ages suggested that food was more avatlable in 1978 than in 1979. In 1979, second eggs apparently functioned as "insurance" eggs. When the first-laid egg falled to hatch, or the first-hatched chick died, the second-hatched chick was often successfully fledged. When first-hatched chicks survived, the second-hatched chick usually starved or was preyed upon, reducing the brood to one chick. Parental investment patterns favored first-hatched chicks. Brood reduction, when employed, discouraged total nest failure, however, under appropriate conditions, brood reduction was avoided and full broods (or two chicks) were fledged.

Trade Creation, Trade Diversion and Investment Flows: Evidence from the Canada-Chile Free Trade Agreement.

Rapport de recherche

The role of investment specific technological shocks in explaining macroeconomics fluctuations.

Rapport de recherche

Investment Under Demand Uncertainty: the Newsboy Problem Revisited.

In this article we study the effect of uncertainty on an entrepreneur who must choose the capacity of his business before knowing the demand for his product. The unit profit of operation is known with certainty but there is no flexibility in our one-period framework. We show how the introduction of global uncertainty reduces the investment of the risk neutral entrepreneur and, even more, that the risk averse one. We also show how marginal increases in risk reduce the optimal capacity of both the risk neutral and the risk averse entrepreneur, without any restriction on the concave utility function and with limited restrictions on the definition of a mean preserving spread. These general results are explained by the fact that the newsboy has a piecewise-linear, and concave, monetary payoff witha kink endogenously determined at the level of optimal capacity. Our results are compared with those in the two literatures on price uncertainty and demand uncertainty, and particularly, with the recent contributions of Eeckhoudt, Gollier and Schlesinger (1991, 1995).

Investment Under Demand Uncertainty: the Newsboy Problem Revisited.

In this article we study the effect of uncertainty on an entrepreneur who must choose the capacity of his business before knowing the demand for his product. The unit profit of operation is known with certainty but there is no flexibility in our one-period framework. We show how the introduction of global uncertainty reduces the investment of the risk neutral entrepreneur and, even more, that the risk averse one. We also show how marginal increases in risk reduce the optimal capacity of both the risk neutral and the risk averse entrepreneur, without any restriction on the concave utility function and with limited restrictions on the definition of a mean preserving spread. These general results are explained by the fact that the newsboy has a piecewise-linear, and concave, monetary payoff witha kink endogenously determined at the level of optimal capacity. Our results are compared with those in the two literatures on price uncertainty and demand uncertainty, and particularly, with the recent contributions of Eeckhoudt, Gollier and Schlesinger (1991, 1995).

Prices of durable nonrenewable natural resources under stochastic investment opportunities

On étudie l'évolution du prix d'une ressource naturelle non renouvelable dans le cas où cette ressource est durable, c'est-à-dire qu'une fois extraite elle devient un actif productif détenu hors terre. On emprunte à la théorie de la détermination du prix des actifs pour ce faire. Le choix de portefeuille porte alors sur les actifs suivant : un stock de ressource non renouvelable détenu en terre, qui ne procure aucun service productif; un stock de ressource détenu hors terre, qui procure un flux de services productifs; un stock d'un bien composite, qui peut être détenu soit sous forme de capital productif, soit sous forme d'une obligation dont le rendement est donn e. Les productivités du secteur de production du bien composite et du secteur de l'extraction de la ressource évoluent de façon stochastique. On montre que la prédiction que l'on peut tirer quant au sentier de prix de la ressource diffère considérablement de celle qui découle de la règle d'Hotelling élémentaire et qu'aucune prédiction non ambiguë quant au comportement du sentier de prix ne peut être obtenue de façon analytique.

Investing Online: Concerns about the Evolving Use of the Internet as an Investment Tool in the Secondary Market Context

La croissance dramatique du commerce électronique des titres cache un grand potentiel pour les investisseurs, de même que pour l’industrie des valeurs mobilières en général. Prenant en considération ses risques particuliers, les autorités réglementaires vivent un défi important face à l’Internet en tant que nouveau moyen d’investir. Néanmoins, malgré l’évolution technologique, les objectifs fondamentaux et l’approche des autorités réglementaires restent similaires à ce qui se produit présentement. Cet article analyse l’impact de l’Internet sur le commerce des valeurs mobilières en se concentrant sur les problèmes soulevés par l’utilisation de ce nouveau moyen de communication dans le contexte du marché secondaire. Par conséquent, son objectif est de dresser le portrait des plaintes typiques des investisseurs, de même que celui des activités frauduleuses en valeurs mobilières propres au cyberespace. L’auteur fait une synthèse des développements récents en analysant l’approche des autorités réglementaires, les études doctrinales, la jurisprudence et les cas administratifs. L'auteure désire remercier la professeure Raymonde Crête pour ses précieux commentaires et conseils.