Développement d’un modèle de classification probabiliste pour la cartographie du couvert nival dans les bassins versants d’Hydro-Québec à l’aide de données de micro-ondes passives

Chaque jour, des décisions doivent être prises quant à la quantité d'hydroélectricité produite au Québec. Ces décisions reposent sur la prévision des apports en eau dans les bassins versants produite à l'aide de modèles hydrologiques. Ces modèles prennent en compte plusieurs facteurs, dont notamment la présence ou l'absence de neige au sol. Cette information est primordiale durant la fonte printanière pour anticiper les apports à venir, puisqu'entre 30 et 40% du volume de crue peut provenir de la fonte du couvert nival. Il est donc nécessaire pour les prévisionnistes de pouvoir suivre l'évolution du couvert de neige de façon quotidienne afin d'ajuster leurs prévisions selon le phénomène de fonte. Des méthodes pour cartographier la neige au sol sont actuellement utilisées à l'Institut de recherche d'Hydro-Québec (IREQ), mais elles présentent quelques lacunes. Ce mémoire a pour objectif d'utiliser des données de télédétection en micro-ondes passives (le gradient de températures de brillance en position verticale (GTV)) à l'aide d'une approche statistique afin de produire des cartes neige/non-neige et d'en quantifier l'incertitude de classification. Pour ce faire, le GTV a été utilisé afin de calculer une probabilité de neige quotidienne via les mélanges de lois normales selon la statistique bayésienne. Par la suite, ces probabilités ont été modélisées à l'aide de la régression linéaire sur les logits et des cartographies du couvert nival ont été produites. Les résultats des modèles ont été validés qualitativement et quantitativement, puis leur intégration à Hydro-Québec a été discutée.

Remote gas detection and quantitative analysis from infrared emission spectra obtained by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy

Techniques for obtaining quantitative values of the temperatures and concentrations of remote hot gaseous effluents from their measured passive emission spectra have been examined in laboratory experiments. The high sensitivity of the spectrometer in the vicinity of the 2397 cm-1 band head region of CO2 has allowed the gas temperature to be calculated from the relative intensity of the observed rotational lines. The spatial distribution of the CO2 in a methane flame has been reconstructed tomographically using a matrix inversion technique. The spectrometer has been calibrated against a black body source at different temperatures and a self absorption correction has been applied to the data avoiding the need to measure the transmission directly. Reconstruction artifacts have been reduced by applying a smoothing routine to the inversion matrix.

New perspectives on the synoptic and mesoscale structure of Hurricane Catarina

This work explores in detail synoptic and mesoscale features of Hurricane Catarina during its life cycle from a decaying baroclinic wave to a tropical depression that underwent tropical transition (TT) and finally to a Category 2 hurricane at landfall over Santa Catarina State coast, southern Brazil. This unique system caused 11 deaths mostly off the Brazilian coast and an estimated half billion dollars in damage in a matter of a few hours on 28 March 2004. Although the closest meteorological station available was tens of kilometres away from the eye, in situ meteorological measurements provided by a work-team sent to the area where the eye made landfall unequivocally reproduces the tropical signature with category 2 strength, adding to previous analysis where this data was not available. Further analyses are based mostly on remote sensing data available at the time of the event. A classic dipole blocking set synoptic conditions for Hurricane Catarina to develop, dynamically contributing to the low wind shear observed. On the other hand, on its westward transit, large scale subsidence limited its strength and vertical development. Catarina had relatively cool SST conditions, but this was mitigated by favourable air-sea fluxes leading to latent heat release-driven processes during the mature phase. The ocean`s dynamic topography also suggested the presence of nearby warm core rings which may have facilitated the transition and post-transition intensification. Since there were no records of such a system at least in the past 30 years and given that SSTs were generally below 26 degrees C and vertical shear was usually strong, despite all satellite data available, the system was initially classified as an extratropical cyclone. Here we hypothesise that this categorization was based oil inadequate regional scale model outputs which did not account for the importance of the latent heat fluxes over the ocean. Hurricane Catarina represents a dramatic event on weather systems in South America. It has attracted attention worldwide and poses questions as whether or not it is a symptom of global warming. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quaternary tectonics in a passive margin: Marajo Island, northern Brazil

Marajo Island is located in a passive continental margin that evolved from rifting associated with the opening of the Equatorial South Atlantic Ocean in the Late Jurassic/Early Cretaceous period. This study, based on remote sensing integrated with sedimentology, as well as subsurface and seismographic data available from the literature, allows discussion of the significance of tectonics during the Quaternary history of marginal basins. Results show that eastern Marajo Island contains channels with evidence of tectonic control. Mapping of straight channels defined four main groups of lineaments (i.e. NNE-SSW, NE-SW, NW-SE and E-W) that parallel main normal and strike-slip fault zones recorded for the Amazon region. Additionally, sedimentological studies of late Quaternary and Holocene deposits indicate numerous ductile and brittle structures within stratigraphic horizons bounded by undeformed strata, related to seismogenic deformation during or shortly after sediment deposition. This conclusion is consistent with subsurface Bouguer mapping suggestive of eastern Marajo Island being still part of the Marajo graben system, where important fault reactivation is recorded up to the Quaternary. Together with the recognition of several phases of fault reactivation, these data suggest that faults developed in association with rift basins might remain active in passive margins, imposing important control on development of depositional systems. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Validation of water vapour profiles (version 13) retrieved by the IMK / IAA scientific retrieval processor based on full resolution spectra measured by MIPAS on board Envisat

Vertical profiles of stratospheric water vapour measured by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) with the full resolution mode between September 2002 and March 2004 and retrieved with the IMK/IAA scientific retrieval processor were compared to a number of independent measurements in order to estimate the bias and to validate the existing precision estimates of the MIPAS data. The estimated precision for MIPAS is 5 to 10% in the stratosphere, depending on altitude, latitude, and season. The independent instruments were: the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS), the Improved Limb Atmospheric Spectrometer-II (ILAS-II), the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM III) instrument, the Middle Atmospheric Water Vapour Radiometer (MIAWARA), the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding, balloon-borne version (MIPAS-B), the Airborne Microwave Stratospheric Observing System (AMSOS), the Fluorescent Stratospheric Hygrometer for Balloon (FLASH-B), the NOAA frostpoint hygrometer, and the Fast In Situ Hygrometer (FISH). For the in-situ measurements and the ground based, air- and balloon borne remote sensing instruments, the measurements are restricted to central and northern Europe. The comparisons to satellite-borne instruments are predominantly at mid- to high latitudes on both hemispheres. In the stratosphere there is no clear indication of a bias in MIPAS data, because the independent measurements in some cases are drier and in some cases are moister than the MIPAS measurements. Compared to the infrared measurements of MIPAS, measurements in the ultraviolet and visible have a tendency to be high, whereas microwave measurements have a tendency to be low. The results of χ2-based precision validation are somewhat controversial among the comparison estimates. However, for comparison instruments whose error budget also includes errors due to uncertainties in spectrally interfering species and where good coincidences were found, the χ2 values found are in the expected range or even below. This suggests that there is no evidence of systematically underestimated MIPAS random errors.