A statistical mechanical approach for the computation of the climatic response to general forcings

The climate belongs to the class of non-equilibrium forced and dissipative systems, for which most results of quasi-equilibrium statistical mechanics, including the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, do not apply. In this paper we show for the first time how the Ruelle linear response theory, developed for studying rigorously the impact of perturbations on general observables of non-equilibrium statistical mechanical systems, can be applied with great success to analyze the climatic response to general forcings. The crucial value of the Ruelle theory lies in the fact that it allows to compute the response of the system in terms of expectation values of explicit and computable functions of the phase space averaged over the invariant measure of the unperturbed state. We choose as test bed a classical version of the Lorenz 96 model, which, in spite of its simplicity, has a well-recognized prototypical value as it is a spatially extended one-dimensional model and presents the basic ingredients, such as dissipation, advection and the presence of an external forcing, of the actual atmosphere. We recapitulate the main aspects of the general response theory and propose some new general results. We then analyze the frequency dependence of the response of both local and global observables to perturbations having localized as well as global spatial patterns. We derive analytically several properties of the corresponding susceptibilities, such as asymptotic behavior, validity of Kramers-Kronig relations, and sum rules, whose main ingredient is the causality principle. We show that all the coefficients of the leading asymptotic expansions as well as the integral constraints can be written as linear function of parameters that describe the unperturbed properties of the system, such as its average energy. Some newly obtained empirical closure equations for such parameters allow to define such properties as an explicit function of the unperturbed forcing parameter alone for a general class of chaotic Lorenz 96 models. We then verify the theoretical predictions from the outputs of the simulations up to a high degree of precision. The theory is used to explain differences in the response of local and global observables, to define the intensive properties of the system, which do not depend on the spatial resolution of the Lorenz 96 model, and to generalize the concept of climate sensitivity to all time scales. We also show how to reconstruct the linear Green function, which maps perturbations of general time patterns into changes in the expectation value of the considered observable for finite as well as infinite time. Finally, we propose a simple yet general methodology to study general Climate Change problems on virtually any time scale by resorting to only well selected simulations, and by taking full advantage of ensemble methods. The specific case of globally averaged surface temperature response to a general pattern of change of the CO2 concentration is discussed. We believe that the proposed approach may constitute a mathematically rigorous and practically very effective way to approach the problem of climate sensitivity, climate prediction, and climate change from a radically new perspective.

Radial basis function classifier construction using particle swarm optimisation aided orthogonal forward regression

We develop a particle swarm optimisation (PSO) aided orthogonal forward regression (OFR) approach for constructing radial basis function (RBF) classifiers with tunable nodes. At each stage of the OFR construction process, the centre vector and diagonal covariance matrix of one RBF node is determined efficiently by minimising the leave-one-out (LOO) misclassification rate (MR) using a PSO algorithm. Compared with the state-of-the-art regularisation assisted orthogonal least square algorithm based on the LOO MR for selecting fixednode RBF classifiers, the proposed PSO aided OFR algorithm for constructing tunable-node RBF classifiers offers significant advantages in terms of better generalisation performance and smaller model size as well as imposes lower computational complexity in classifier construction process. Moreover, the proposed algorithm does not have any hyperparameter that requires costly tuning based on cross validation.

Assessing the impact of nano- and micro-scale zerovalent iron particles on soil microbial activities: Particle reactivity interferes with assay conditions and interpretation of genuine microbial effects

The effects of nano-scale and micro-scale zerovalent iron (nZVI and mZVI) particles on general (dehydrogenase and hydrolase) and specific (ammonia oxidation potential, AOP) activities mediated by the microbial community in an uncontaminated soil were examined. nZVI (diameter 12.5 nm; 10 mg gÿ1 soil)apparently inhibited AOP and nZVI and mZVI apparently stimulated dehydrogenase activity but had minimal influence on hydrolase activity. Sterile experiments revealed that the apparent inhibition of AOP could not be interpreted as such due to the confounding action of the particles, whereas, the nZVIenhanced dehydrogenase activity could represent the genuine response of a stimulated microbial population or an artifact of ZVI reactivity. Overall, there was no evidence for negative effects of nZVI or mZVI on the processes studied. When examining the impact of redox active particles such as ZVI on microbial oxidation–reduction reactions, potential confounding effects of the test particles on assay conditions should be considered.

Prediction of Parkinson’s Disease tremor onset using a radial basis function neural network based on particle swarm optimization

Deep Brain Stimulation (DBS) has been successfully used throughout the world for the treatment of Parkinson's disease symptoms. To control abnormal spontaneous electrical activity in target brain areas DBS utilizes a continuous stimulation signal. This continuous power draw means that its implanted battery power source needs to be replaced every 18–24 months. To prolong the life span of the battery, a technique to accurately recognize and predict the onset of the Parkinson's disease tremors in human subjects and thus implement an on-demand stimulator is discussed here. The approach is to use a radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) and principal component analysis (PCA) with Local Field Potential (LFP) data recorded via the stimulation electrodes to predict activity related to tremor onset. To test this approach, LFPs from the subthalamic nucleus (STN) obtained through deep brain electrodes implanted in a Parkinson patient are used to train the network. To validate the network's performance, electromyographic (EMG) signals from the patient's forearm are recorded in parallel with the LFPs to accurately determine occurrences of tremor, and these are compared to the performance of the network. It has been found that detection accuracies of up to 89% are possible. Performance comparisons have also been made between a conventional RBFNN and an RBFNN based on PSO which show a marginal decrease in performance but with notable reduction in computational overhead.

Integrating features for man-made target tracking from FLIR image sequence using particle filter

A new man-made target tracking algorithm integrating features from (Forward Looking InfraRed) image sequence is presented based on particle filter. Firstly, a multiscale fractal feature is used to enhance targets in FLIR images. Secondly, the gray space feature is defined by Bhattacharyya distance between intensity histograms of the reference target and a sample target from MFF (Multi-scale Fractal Feature) image. Thirdly, the motion feature is obtained by differencing between two MFF images. Fourthly, a fusion coefficient can be automatically obtained by online feature selection method for features integrating based on fuzzy logic. Finally, a particle filtering framework is developed to fulfill the target tracking. Experimental results have shown that the proposed algorithm can accurately track weak or small man-made target in FLIR images with complicated background. The algorithm is effective, robust and satisfied to real time tracking.

The use of trajectory cluster analysis to interpret trace gas measurements at Mace Head, Ireland

A first step in interpreting the wide variation in trace gas concentrations measured over time at a given site is to classify the data according to the prevailing weather conditions. In order to classify measurements made during two intensive field campaigns at Mace Head, on the west coast of Ireland, an objective method of assigning data to different weather types has been developed. Air-mass back trajectories calculated using winds from ECMWF analyses, arriving at the site in 1995–1997, were allocated to clusters based on a statistical analysis of the latitude, longitude and pressure of the trajectory at 12 h intervals over 5 days. The robustness of the analysis was assessed by using an ensemble of back trajectories calculated for four points around Mace Head. Separate analyses were made for each of the 3 years, and for four 3-month periods. The use of these clusters in classifying ground-based ozone measurements at Mace Head is described, including the need to exclude data which have been influenced by local perturbations to the regional flow pattern, for example, by sea breezes. Even with a limited data set, based on 2 months of intensive field measurements in 1996 and 1997, there are statistically significant differences in ozone concentrations in air from the different clusters. The limitations of this type of analysis for classification and interpretation of ground-based chemistry measurements are discussed.

Assessing the accuracy of CME speed and trajectory estimates from STEREO observations through a comparison of independent methods

We have estimated the speed and direction of propagation of a number of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) using single-spacecraft data from the STEREO Heliospheric Imager (HI) wide-field cameras. In general, these values are in good agreement with those predicted by Thernisien, Vourlidas, and Howard in Solar Phys. 256, 111 -aEuro parts per thousand 130 (2009) using a forward modelling method to fit CMEs imaged by the STEREO COR2 coronagraphs. The directions of the CMEs predicted by both techniques are in good agreement despite the fact that many of the CMEs under study travel in directions that cause them to fade rapidly in the HI images. The velocities estimated from both techniques are in general agreement although there are some interesting differences that may provide evidence for the influence of the ambient solar wind on the speed of CMEs. The majority of CMEs with a velocity estimated to be below 400 km s(-1) in the COR2 field of view have higher estimated velocities in the HI field of view, while, conversely, those with COR2 velocities estimated to be above 400 km s(-1) have lower estimated HI velocities. We interpret this as evidence for the deceleration of fast CMEs and the acceleration of slower CMEs by interaction with the ambient solar wind beyond the COR2 field of view. We also show that the uncertainties in our derived parameters are influenced by the range of elongations over which each CME can be tracked. In order to reduce the uncertainty in the predicted arrival time of a CME at 1 Astronomical Unit (AU) to within six hours, the CME needs to be tracked out to at least 30 degrees elongation. This is in good agreement with predictions of the accuracy of our technique based on Monte Carlo simulations.

Autonomous ship collision free trajectory navigation and control algorithms

A new autonomous ship collision free (ASCF) trajectory navigation and control system has been introduced with a new recursive navigation algorithm based on analytic geometry and convex set theory for ship collision free guidance. The underlying assumption is that the geometric information of ship environment is available in the form of a polygon shaped free space, which may be easily generated from a 2D image or plots relating to physical hazards or other constraints such as collision avoidance regulations. The navigation command is given as a heading command sequence based on generating a way point which falls within a small neighborhood of the current position, and the sequence of the way points along the trajectory are guaranteed to lie within a bounded obstacle free region using convex set theory. A neurofuzzy network predictor which in practice uses only observed input/output data generated by on board sensors or external sensors (or a sensor fusion algorithm), based on using rudder deflection angle for the control of ship heading angle, is utilised in the simulation of an ESSO 190000 dwt tanker model to demonstrate the effectiveness of the system.

Minimum jerk trajectory control for rehabilitation and haptic applications

Smooth trajectories are essential for safe interaction in between human and a haptic interface. Different methods and strategies have been introduced to create such smooth trajectories. This paper studies the creation of human-like movements in haptic interfaces, based on the study of human arm motion. These motions are intended to retrain the upper limb movements of patients that lose manipulation functions following stroke. We present a model that uses higher degree polynomials to define a trajectory and control the robot arm to achieve minimum jerk movements. It also studies different methods that can be driven from polynomials to create more realistic human-like movements for therapeutic purposes.

Numerical modeling of inhaled charged aerosol deposition in human airways

A new numerical modeling of inhaled charge aerosol has been developed based on a modified Weibel's model. Both the velocity profiles (slug and parabolic flows) and the particle distributions (uniform and parabolic distributions) have been considered. Inhaled particles are modeled as a dilute dispersed phase flow in which the particle motion is controlled by fluid force and external forces acting on particles. This numerical study extends the previous numerical studies by considering both space- and image-charge forces. Because of the complex computation of interacting forces due to space-charge effect, the particle-mesh (PM) method is selected to calculate these forces. In the PM technique, the charges of all particles are assigned to the space-charge field mesh, for calculating charge density. The Poisson's equation of the electrostatic potential is then solved, and the electrostatic force acting on individual particle is interpolated. It is assumed that there is no effect of humidity on charged particles. The results show that many significant factors also affect the deposition, such as the volume of particle cloud, the velocity profile and the particle distribution. This study allows a better understanding of electrostatic mechanism of aerosol transport and deposition in human airways.

A cluster computing implementation of a Monte Carlo simulation of a particle growth mechanism

Clusters of computers can be used together to provide a powerful computing resource. Large Monte Carlo simulations, such as those used to model particle growth, are computationally intensive and take considerable time to execute on conventional workstations. By spreading the work of the simulation across a cluster of computers, the elapsed execution time can be greatly reduced. Thus a user has apparently the performance of a supercomputer by using the spare cycles on other workstations.

Advancements in the estimation of ice particle fall speeds using laboratory and field measurements

Accurate estimates for the fall speed of natural hydrometeors are vital if their evolution in clouds is to be understood quantitatively. In this study, laboratory measurements of the terminal velocity vt for a variety of ice particle models settling in viscous fluids, along with wind-tunnel and field measurements of ice particles settling in air, have been analyzed and compared to common methods of computing vt from the literature. It is observed that while these methods work well for a number of particle types, they fail for particles with open geometries, specifically those particles for which the area ratio Ar is small (Ar is defined as the area of the particle projected normal to the flow divided by the area of a circumscribing disc). In particular, the fall speeds of stellar and dendritic crystals, needles, open bullet rosettes, and low-density aggregates are all overestimated. These particle types are important in many cloud types: aggregates in particular often dominate snow precipitation at the ground and vertically pointing Doppler radar measurements. Based on the laboratory data, a simple modification to previous computational methods is proposed, based on the area ratio. This new method collapses the available drag data onto an approximately universal curve, and the resulting errors in the computed fall speeds relative to the tank data are less than 25% in all cases. Comparison with the (much more scattered) measurements of ice particles falling in air show strong support for this new method, with the area ratio bias apparently eliminated.