How robust are global conservation priorities to climate change?

International conservation organisations have identified priority areas for biodiversity conservation. These global-scale prioritisations affect the distribution of funds for conservation interventions. As each organisation has a different focus, each prioritisation scheme is determined by different decision criteria and the resultant priority areas vary considerably. However, little is known about how the priority areas will respond to the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we examined the robustness of eight global-scale prioritisations to climate change under various climate predictions from seven global circulation models. We developed a novel metric of the climate stability for 803 ecoregions based on a recently introduced method to estimate the overlap of climate envelopes. The relationships between the decision criteria and the robustness of the global prioritisation schemes were statistically examined. We found that decision criteria related to level of endemism and landscape fragmentation were strongly correlated with areas predicted to be robust to a changing climate. Hence, policies that prioritise intact areas due to the likely cost efficiency, and assumptions related to the potential to mitigate the impacts of climate change, require further examination. Our findings will help determine where additional management is required to enable biodiversity to adapt to the impacts of climate change

Climate change, anthropogenic disturbance and the northward range expansion of Lactuca serriola (Asteraceae)

The distribution range of Lactuca serriola, a species native to the summer-dry mediterranean climate, has expanded northwards during the last 250 years. This paper assesses the influence of climate on the range expansion of this species and highlights the importance of anthropogenic disturbance to its spread. Location Central and Northern Europe. Methods Data on the geographic distribution of L. serriola were assembled through a literature search as well as through floristic and herbarium surveys. Maps of the spread of L. serriola in Central and Northern Europe were prepared based on herbarium data. The spread was assessed more precisely in Germany, Austria and Great Britain by pooling herbarium and literature data. We modelled the bioclimatic niche of the species using occurrence and climatic data covering the last century to generate projections of suitable habitats under the climatic conditions of five time periods. We tested whether the observed distribution of L. serriola could be explained for each time period, assuming that the climatic niche of the species was conserved across time. Results The species has spread northwards since the beginning of the 19th century. We show that climate warming in Europe increased the number of sites suitable for the species at northern latitudes. Until the late 1970s, the distribution of the species corresponded to the climatically suitable sites available. For the last two decades, however, we could not show any significant relationship between the increase in suitable sites and the distributional range change of L. serriola. However, we highlight potential areas the species could spread to in the future (Great Britain, southern Scandinavia and the Swedish coast). It is predominantly non-climatic influences of global change that have contributed to its rapid spread. Main conclusions The observation that colonizing species are not filling their climatically suitable range might imply that, potentially, other ruderal species could expand far beyond their current range. Our work highlights the importance of historical floristic and herbarium data for understanding the expansion of a species. Such historical distributional data can provide valuable information for those planning the management of contemporary environmental problems, such as species responses to environmental change.

Tree line shifts in the Swiss Alps: Climate change or land abandonment?

Questions: Did the forest area in the Swiss Alps increase between 1985 and 1997? Does the forest expansion near the tree line represent an invasion into abandoned grasslands (ingrowth) or a true upward shift of the local tree line? What land cover / land use classes did primarily regenerate to forest, and what forest structural types did primarily regenerate? And, what are possible drivers of forest regeneration in the tree line ecotone, climate and/or land use change? Location: Swiss Alps. Methods: Forest expansion was quantified using data from the repeated Swiss land use statistics GEOSTAT. A moving window algorithm was developed to distinguish between forest ingrowth and upward shift. To test a possible climate change influence, the resulting upward shifts were compared to a potential regional tree line. Results: A significant increase of forest cover was found between 1650 to and 2450 m. Above 1650 m, 10% of the new forest areas were identified as true upward shifts whereas 90% represented ingrowth, and we identified both land use and climate change as likely drivers. Most upward shift activities were found to occur within a band of 300 m below the potential regional tree line, indicating land use as the most likely driver. Only 4% of the upward shifts were identified to rise above the potential regional tree line, thus indicating climate change. Conclusions: Land abandonment was the most dominant driver for the establishment of new forest areas, even at the tree line ecotone. However, a small fraction of upwards shift can be attributed to the recent climate warming, a fraction that is likely to increase further if climate continues to warm, and with a longer time-span between warming and measurement of forest cover.

Weighted Shape-based Averaging with Neighborhood Prior Model for Multiple Atlas Fusion-based Medical Image Segmentation

In medical imaging, merging automated segmentations obtained from multiple atlases has become a standard practice for improving the accuracy. In this letter, we propose two new fusion methods: "Global Weighted Shape-Based Averaging" (GWSBA) and "Local Weighted Shape-Based Averaging" (LWSBA). These methods extend the well known Shape-Based Averaging (SBA) by additionally incorporating the similarity information between the reference (i.e., atlas) images and the target image to be segmented. We also propose a new spatially-varying similarity-weighted neighborhood prior model, and an edge-preserving smoothness term that can be used with many of the existing fusion methods. We first present our new Markov Random Field (MRF) based fusion framework that models the above mentioned information. The proposed methods are evaluated in the context of segmentation of lymph nodes in the head and neck 3D CT images, and they resulted in more accurate segmentations compared to the existing SBA.

An alternative socio-ecological strategy? International Trade Unions' engagement with climate change

In the context of a global ecological crisis, it is an important move when trade unions turn to environmentalism. Yet, the form that this environmentalism takes is often overlooked. This is especially the case with international trade unions. Based on an empirical study of international trade unions' engagement with the climate change issue, this article argues that international trade unions follow three different (and partially conflicting) strategies. I label these strategies as 'deliberative', 'collaborative growth' and 'socialist', and I examine each in turn. I argue that such analysis is important if we want to identify the potential for transforming the social relations of production that are at the root of the current climate crisis, and for identifying an alternative socio-ecological strategy.

Droits du patient: ce que le nouveau Code civil va modifier dans les soins aux enfants [Patients' rights: what the new swiss civil code will change in the health care of children].

Recent progress in medicine allow to provide treatment, to cure or to extend the lifespan of people that would have not survived before. Doctors and healthcare providers have become indispensable actors in Western societies. This is particularly true for children's health issues. With the new information technologies, knowledge is now available to everyone, which enables patients to dialog on an equal footing with the physician. Nowadays, therapeutic choices are discussed and negotiated. The new tensions caused by this relationship between therapist and patient have created the need for new regulations. The Swiss Confederation has modified its Civil Code with the objective of a better protection of vulnerable individuals. This article summarizes the consequences of the new regulations with regard to the care and treatment provided to children.

Change in defense mechanisms and coping over the course of short-term dynamic psychotherapy for adjustment disorder.

Short-term dynamic psychotherapy (STDP) has rarely been investigated with regard to its underlying mechanisms of change, even if psychoanalytic theory informs us about several potential putative mechanisms of change in patients. Change in overall defensive functioning is one. In this study, we explored the role of overall defensive functioning, by comparing it on the process level with the neighbouring concept of overall coping functioning. A total of N=32 patients, mainly presenting adjustment disorder, were included in the study. The patients underwent STDP up to 40 sessions; three sessions per psychotherapy were transcribed and analyzed by using two observer-rating scales: Defense Mechanism Rating Scales (Perry, 1990) and Coping Action Patterns (Perry, Drapeau, Dunkley, & Blake, 2005). Hierarchical linear modeling was applied to model the change over the course of therapy and relate it to outcome. Results suggest that STDP has an effect on the target variable of overall defensive functioning, which was absent for overall coping functioning. Links with outcome confirm the importance of the effect. These results are discussed from methodological and clinical viewpoints.

Reaction-diffusion wave fronts: Multigeneration biological species under climate change

A generalization of reaction-diffusion models to multigeneration biological species is presented. It is based on more complex random walks than those in previous approaches. The new model is developed analytically up to infinite order. Our predictions for the speed agree to experimental data for several butterfly species better than existing models. The predicted dependence for the speed on the number of generations per year allows us to explain the change in speed observed for a specific invasion

Neighborhood Housing Services of Des Moines Inc., January 19, 2000 - January 31, 2002

Other Audit Reports

Kernel-based methods for change detection in remote sensing images

Nowadays, the joint exploitation of images acquired daily by remote sensing instruments and of images available from archives allows a detailed monitoring of the transitions occurring at the surface of the Earth. These modifications of the land cover generate spectral discrepancies that can be detected via the analysis of remote sensing images. Independently from the origin of the images and of type of surface change, a correct processing of such data implies the adoption of flexible, robust and possibly nonlinear method, to correctly account for the complex statistical relationships characterizing the pixels of the images. This Thesis deals with the development and the application of advanced statistical methods for multi-temporal optical remote sensing image processing tasks. Three different families of machine learning models have been explored and fundamental solutions for change detection problems are provided. In the first part, change detection with user supervision has been considered. In a first application, a nonlinear classifier has been applied with the intent of precisely delineating flooded regions from a pair of images. In a second case study, the spatial context of each pixel has been injected into another nonlinear classifier to obtain a precise mapping of new urban structures. In both cases, the user provides the classifier with examples of what he believes has changed or not. In the second part, a completely automatic and unsupervised method for precise binary detection of changes has been proposed. The technique allows a very accurate mapping without any user intervention, resulting particularly useful when readiness and reaction times of the system are a crucial constraint. In the third, the problem of statistical distributions shifting between acquisitions is studied. Two approaches to transform the couple of bi-temporal images and reduce their differences unrelated to changes in land cover are studied. The methods align the distributions of the images, so that the pixel-wise comparison could be carried out with higher accuracy. Furthermore, the second method can deal with images from different sensors, no matter the dimensionality of the data nor the spectral information content. This opens the doors to possible solutions for a crucial problem in the field: detecting changes when the images have been acquired by two different sensors.

Proteomic analysis of mononuclear cells of patients with minimal-change nephrotic syndrome of childhood.

Background/Aims. Recently, peripheral blood mononuclear cell transcriptome analysis has identified genes that are upregulated in relapsing minimal-change nephrotic syndrome (MCNS). In order to investigate protein expression in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) from relapsing MCNS patients, we performed proteomic comparisons of PBMC from patients with MCNS in relapse and controls. METHODS: PBMC from a total of 20 patients were analysed. PBMC were taken from five patients with relapsing MCNS, four in remission, five patients with other glomerular diseases and six controls. Two dimensional electrophoresis was performed and proteome patterns were compared. RESULTS: Automatic heuristic clustering analysis allowed us to pool correctly the gels from the MCNS patients in the relapse and in the control groups. Using hierarchical population matching, nine spots were found to be increased in PBMC from MCNS patients in relapse. Four spots were identified by mass spectrometry. Three of the four proteins identified (L-plastin, alpha-tropomyosin and annexin III) were cytoskeletal-associated proteins. Using western blot and immunochemistry, L-plastin and alpha-tropomyosin 3 concentrations were found to be enhanced in PBMC from MCNS patients in relapse. Conclusions. These data indicate that a specific proteomic profile characterizes PBMC from MCNS patients in relapse. Proteins involved in PBMC cytoskeletal rearrangement are increased in relapsing MCNS. We hypothesize that T-cell cytoskeletal rearrangement may play a role in the pathogenesis of MCNS by altering the expression of cell surface receptors and by modifying the interaction of these cells with glomerular cells.

Change in biased thinking in a 10-session treatment for borderline personality disorder: Further evidence of the motive-oriented therapeutic relationship.

Abstract Borderline Personality Disorder (BPD) is characterized by both maladaptive thinking and problematic schemas. Kramer and colleagues (2011) showed that using the motive-oriented therapeutic relationship (MOTR), based on the individualized understanding of the patient according to Plan Analysis (Caspar, 2007), can improve treatment outcomes for BPD. The present process-outcome pilot study aimed to examine the effects of the motive-oriented therapeutic relationship on the cognitive biases of patients with BPD. Change in biased cognitions in N=10 patients who were subject to MOTR was compared to that of N=10 patients who received psychiatric-psychodynamic treatment (Gunderson & Links, 2008). Results show a greater decrease in over-generalizations in patients who received MOTR, compared to the patients who received the psychiatric-psychodynamic treatment. These changes were related to outcome in various ways. These findings underline the importance of an individualized case formulation method in bringing about therapeutic change.

C-H···O H-bonded complexes: how does basis set superposition error change their potential-energy surfaces?

Geometries, vibrational frequencies, and interaction energies of the CNH⋯O3 and HCCH⋯O3 complexes are calculated in a counterpoise-corrected (CP-corrected) potential-energy surface (PES) that corrects for the basis set superposition error (BSSE). Ab initio calculations are performed at the Hartree-Fock (HF) and second-order Møller-Plesset (MP2) levels, using the 6-31G(d,p) and D95++(d,p) basis sets. Interaction energies are presented including corrections for zero-point vibrational energy (ZPVE) and thermal correction to enthalpy at 298 K. The CP-corrected and conventional PES are compared; the unconnected PES obtained using the larger basis set including diffuse functions exhibits a double well shape, whereas use of the 6-31G(d,p) basis set leads to a flat single-well profile. The CP-corrected PES has always a multiple-well shape. In particular, it is shown that the CP-corrected PES using the smaller basis set is qualitatively analogous to that obtained with the larger basis sets, so the CP method becomes useful to correctly describe large systems, where the use of small basis sets may be necessary

How does basis set superposition error change the potential surfaces for hydrogen-bonded dimers?

We describe a simple method to automate the geometric optimization of molecular orbital calculations of supermolecules on potential surfaces that are corrected for basis set superposition error using the counterpoise (CP) method. This method is applied to the H-bonding complexes HF/HCN, HF/H2O, and HCCH/H2O using the 6-31G(d,p) and D95 + + (d,p) basis sets at both the Hartree-Fock and second-order Møller-Plesset levels. We report the interaction energies, geometries, and vibrational frequencies of these complexes on the CP-optimized surfaces; and compare them with similar values calculated using traditional methods, including the (more traditional) single point CP correction. Upon optimization on the CP-corrected surface, the interaction energies become more negative (before vibrational corrections) and the H-bonding stretching vibrations decrease in all cases. The extent of the effects vary from extremely small to quite large depending on the complex and the calculational method. The relative magnitudes of the vibrational corrections cannot be predicted from the H-bond stretching frequencies alone

Multisensor change detection with nonlinear canonical correlation

The analysis of multi-modal and multi-sensor images is nowadays of paramount importance for Earth Observation (EO) applications. There exist a variety of methods that aim at fusing the different sources of information to obtain a compact representation of such datasets. However, for change detection existing methods are often unable to deal with heterogeneous image sources and very few consider possible nonlinearities in the data. Additionally, the availability of labeled information is very limited in change detection applications. For these reasons, we present the use of a semi-supervised kernel-based feature extraction technique. It incorporates a manifold regularization accounting for the geometric distribution and jointly addressing the small sample problem. An exhaustive example using Landsat 5 data illustrates the potential of the method for multi-sensor change detection.