Random regression models using different functions to model test-day milk yield of Brazilian Holstein cows

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Milk yield persistency in Brazilian Gyr cattle based on a random regression model

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Genetic parameters for test-day yield of milk, fat and protein in buffaloes estimated by random regression models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The role of clouds in improving the regression model for hourly values of diffuse solar radiation

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Anti-hypertensive drugs have different effects on ventricular hypertrophy regression

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data

INTRODUÇÃO: A malaria é uma doença endêmica na região da Amazônia Brasileira, e a detecção de possíveis fatores de risco pode ser de grande interesse às autoridades em saúde pública. O objetivo deste artigo é investigar a associação entre variáveis ambientais e os registros anuais de malária na região amazônica usando métodos bayesianos espaço-temporais. MÉTODOS: Utilizaram-se modelos de regressão espaço-temporais de Poisson para analisar os dados anuais de contagem de casos de malária entre os anos de 1999 a 2008, considerando a presença de alguns fatores como a taxa de desflorestamento. em uma abordagem bayesiana, as inferências foram obtidas por métodos Monte Carlo em cadeias de Markov (MCMC) que simularam amostras para a distribuição conjunta a posteriori de interesse. A discriminação de diferentes modelos também foi discutida. RESULTADOS: O modelo aqui proposto sugeriu que a taxa de desflorestamento, o número de habitants por km² e o índice de desenvolvimento humano (IDH) são importantes para a predição de casos de malária. CONCLUSÕES: É possível concluir que o desenvolvimento humano, o crescimento populacional, o desflorestamento e as alterações ecológicas associadas a estes fatores estão associados ao aumento do risco de malária. Pode-se ainda concluir que o uso de modelos de regressão de Poisson que capturam o efeito temporal e espacial em um enfoque bayesiano é uma boa estratégia para modelar dados de contagem de malária.

The Poisson-exponential regression model under different latent activation schemes

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

The Conway-Maxwell-Poisson-generalized gamma regression model with long-term survivors

In this paper, we proposed a flexible cure rate survival model by assuming the number of competing causes of the event of interest following the Conway-Maxwell distribution and the time for the event to follow the generalized gamma distribution. This distribution can be used to model survival data when the hazard rate function is increasing, decreasing, bathtub and unimodal-shaped including some distributions commonly used in lifetime analysis as particular cases. Some appropriate matrices are derived in order to evaluate local influence on the estimates of the parameters by considering different perturbations, and some global influence measurements are also investigated. Finally, data set from the medical area is analysed.

Short-Term Multinodal Load Forecasting Using a Modified General Regression Neural Network

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Early nephrology consultation can have an impact on outcome of acute kidney injury patients

Background. Patients who develop acute kidney injury (AKI) in the intensive care unit (ICU) have extremely high rates of mortality and morbidity. The objectives of this study were to compare clinical and laboratory characteristics of AKI patients evaluated and not evaluated by nephrologists in ICU and generate the hypothesis of the relationship between timing of nephrology consultation and outcome.Methods. We explored associations among presence and timing of nephrology consultation with ICU stay and in-ICU mortality in 148 ICU patients with AKI at a Brazilian teaching hospital from July 2008 to May 2010. Multivariable logistic regression was used to adjust confounding and selection bias.Results. AKI incidence was 30% and 52% of these AKI patients were evaluated by nephrologists. At multivariable analysis, AKI patients evaluated by nephrologists showed higher Acute Tubular Necrosis-Index Specific Score and creatinine level, more dialysis indications, lower urine output and longer ICU stay. The mortality rate was similar to AKI patients who were not evaluated. Nephrology consultation was delayed (>= 48 h) in 62.3% (median time to consultation, 4.7 days). Lower serum creatinine levels (P - 0.009) and higher urine output (P = 0.002) were associated with delayed consultation. Delayed consultation was associated with increased ICU mortality (65.4 versus 88.2%, P < 0.001).Conclusions. In AKI, patients evaluated by nephrologists seem to be more seriously ill than those not evaluated and present similar mortality rate. The delayed nephrology consultation can be associated with increased ICU mortality.

Cytokines and acute-phase serum proteins as markers of inflammatory regression during pulmonary tuberculosis treatment

Tuberculosis is still increasing and was declared a worldwide sanitary emergency by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 1995. Its control is difficult due to long treatment duration and lack of markers of treatment success or failure. Cytokines such as IFN-gamma and TNF-alpha, a central factor in immune response against Mycobacterium tuberculosis, are responsible for the interaction between T lymphocytes and the infected macrophage and are also produced during this interaction. As proinflammatory cytokines have a close relationship with mycobacteria clearance, in fact even preceding it, they could be used as markers for inflammatory activity and response to treatment. Proinflammatory cytokines act in the liver and stimulate a strong local and systemic acute-phase response as a result of homeostatic and physiological responses also induced by them. Acute-phase proteins produced by cytokine activity are useful diagnostic markers that could also be used to monitor treatment response as they can be serially quantified. The objective of this study was to evaluate IFN-gamma, TNF-alpha, IL-10 and TGF-beta production in supernatant of peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) and monocyte (MO) cultures, as well as serum acute-phase response through total protein, albumin, globulin, C-reactive protein (CRP), alpha-1-acid glycoprotein (AGP), and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) as regression markers of inflammatory response during pulmonary tuberculosis treatment. Twenty blood donors (G1) from the Blood Bank at Botucatu School of Medicine's University Hospital (BSM-UH) were evaluated once and 28 pulmonary tuberculosis patients (G2): 13 from BSM-UH and 15 from the Bauru State Health Secretariat. Patients were evaluated at three moments of treatment: before (M1), at three months (M2), and at the end (M3). Cytokines were determined in 20ml of peripheral blood (ELISA), with or without activation: lipopolysaccharide (LPS) for MO culture and phytohemagglutinin (PHA) for PBMC culture. Acute-phase protein behavior in G2 throughout treatment was: Globulins: M1> M2, M1> M3 (rho < 0.001); CRP: M1> M2> M3 (.< 0.001); AGP for men: M1> M2, M1> M3 (rho < 0.001); ESR for men: M1> M2, M1> M3 (rho < 0.0016) and for women: M1> M2 (.< 0.025). Comparison between cytokine levels found in supernatant of MO and PBMC cultures, with and without stimulus, in G1 and G2 during treatment showed: TNF-alpha (with/ without LPS) at M1: G2> G1; at M2: G2> G1 (rho < 0.001); (without LPS) at M3: G2> G1 (rho < 0.001), (with LPS) at M3: G2> G1 (rho < 0.028); IFN-. (with and without PHA) at M1: G2> G1; at M2: G2> G1 (rho < 0.001); IL-10 (with and without LPS) at M1: G2> G1; at M2: G2> G1; at M3: G2> G1 (rho < 0.001); TGF-beta (with and without LPS) at M1: G2> G1; at M2: G2> G1 (rho < 0.001), (without LPS) at M3: G2> G1 (rho < 0.001). In G2, all cytokines in supernatant of MO and PBMC cultures, with and without stimulus, showed: M1> M2> M3 (rho < 0.01). Levels of globulins, CRP, AGP, and ESR in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis before treatment (M1) were significantly higher than reference values, suggesting their use as diagnostic markers and indicators of treatment. The CRP decreasing values along treatment could be taken as a marker of the regression of inflammatory process and of response to treatment in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis.Regarding cytokines, there was significant increase in TNF-alpha, IFN-gamma, IL-10, and TGF-alpha levels before and at three months treatment, with and without stimulus; in TNF-a and IL-10 lvels, with and without stimulus, as well as in TGF-alpha levels without stimulus at six months. Patients had higher levels of all studied cytokines than controls before treatment, and these values decreased along treatment. In this study, pulmonary tuberculosis patients showed a Th0 cytokine profile before treatment, with the production of both Th1 (IFN-gamma) and Th2 (IL-10) cytokines, in addition to TNF-alpha inflammatory and TGF-alpha regulatory and fibrosis-inducer cytokines. At the end of treatment, all had evolved to Th2 profile, probably in an attempt to reduce the harmful effects of the proinflammatory activity of the Th1 cytokine profile and of the still above-normal levels of TNF-alpha. The high levels of TGF-alpha, also found in these patients, are related to its important role in the extracellular matrix deposition and fibrosis induction that characterize tuberculosis healing process. IFN-gamma was the only cytokine reaching normal levels at the end of treatment, which suggests its use as a marker of response to treatment.

Risk factors for Hospital-Acquired Pneumonia in nonventilated adults

Although most recent publications focus on Ventilator-associated Pneumonia, Non-Ventilator-associated Hospital-acquired pneumonia (NVHAP) is still worrisome. We studied risk factors for NVHAP among patients admitted to a small teaching hospital. Sixty-six NVHAP case patients and 66 controls admitted to the hospital from November 2005 through November 2006 were enrolled in a case-control study. Variables under investigation included: demographic characteristics, comorbidities, procedures, invasive devices and use of medications (Sedatives, Antacids, Steroids and Antimicrobials). Univariate and multivariable analysis (hierarchical models of logistic regression) were performed. The incidence of NVHAP in our hospital was 0.68% (1.02 per 1,000 patients-day). Results from multivariable analysis identified risk factors for NVHAP: age (Odds Ratio[OR]=1.03, 95% Confidence Interval[CI]=1.01-1.05, p=0.002), use of Antacids (OR=5.29, 95%CI=1.89-4.79, p=0.001) and Central Nervous System disease (OR=3.13, 95%CI=1.24-7.93, p=0.02). Although our findings are coherent with previous reports, the association of Antacids with NVHAP recalls a controversial issue in the physiopathology of Hospital-Acquired Pneumonia, with possible implications for preventive strategies.

Molar Pregnancy in Adolescents

OBJECTIVE: To describe the clinical presentation of hydatidiform molar pregnancy in women under the age of 20 years. In addition, we sought to understand if this adolescent population manifests differences in clinical factors compared to an adult population that may affect outcome.STUDY DESIGN: We used a database from the New England Trophoblastic Disease Center to analyze clinical data from all women followed for molar pregnancy between 1970 and 2009 with complete follow-up information. This population was stratified by age and clinical parameters including presenting signs, molar histology and development of gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN). Univariable and multivariable logistic regression was employed to discern clinical factors that associated with adolescent age. The Partners Human Research Committee approved this study.RESULTS: We identified 1,494 women diagnosed with hydatidiform mole (HM), of which 220 (14.7%) were adolescents defined as age <20 years. The most common presenting clinical signs were vaginal bleeding and an enlarged uterus compared to dates. Median gestational age at diagnosis was 13.4 weeks, not different from that in the adult population. Similarly, no difference in presenting human chorionic gonadotropin was observed between the adult and adolescent populations. Adolescents presented with a significant overrepresentation of complete mole (86% vs. 75%, p < 0.001) compared to adults. Complete mole was associated with a heightened risk of developing GTN (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.9-3.5), and despite the association of complete mole with young maternal age, univariable analysis showed no difference in the rate of GTN observed between adolescents and adults (24% vs. 30%, p = 0.08). Multivariable analysis controlling for molar histology demonstrated that adolescent age was associated with a decreased risk of GTN (hazard ratio 0.67, 95% CI 0.48 0.93).CONCLUSION: Adolescents account for a substantial proportion of the population with HM. They commonly present with vaginal bleeding. Though this population develops a complete mole with a higher frequency than adults, adolescents appear to have a significantly decreased risk of developing GTN. (J Reprod Med 2012; 57:225-230)

Transtornos mentais comuns e uso de psicofármacos: impacto das condições socioeconômicas

OBJETIVO: Avaliar a influência das condições socioeconômicas na associação entre transtornos mentais comuns, uso de serviços de saúde e de psicofármacos. MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal populacional conduzido na cidade de Botucatu, SP, com amostragem probabilística, estratificada e por conglomerados. Foram realizadas entrevistas domiciliares com 1.023 sujeitos de 15 anos ou mais de idade, entre 2001 e 2002. Transtorno mental comum foi avaliado utilizando o Self Reporting Questionnaire (SRQ-20). O uso de serviços foi investigado com relação à quinzena anterior à entrevista e uso de psicotrópicos, nos três dias anteriores. Utilizou-se regressão logística para análise multivariável, considerando o efeito do desenho. RESULTADOS: No total da amostra, 13,4% (IC 95%: 10,7;16,0) procuraram serviços de saúde na quinzena anterior à entrevista. A procura de serviços de saúde se associou ao sexo feminino (OR=2,0) e à presença de transtorno mental comum (OR=2,2). Na amostra 13,3% (IC 95%: 9,2;17,5) referiram ter usado ao menos um psicotrópico, destacando-se os antidepressivos (5,0%) e os benzodiazepínicos (3,1%). Na análise multivariável, sexo feminino e presença de transtorno mental comum mantiveram-se associados ao uso de benzodiazepínicos. Renda per capita mostrou-se direta e independentemente associada ao uso de psicofármacos, conforme aumento da renda. CONCLUSÕES: Menor renda associou-se à presença de transtorno mental comum, mas não ao uso de psicotrópicos. A associação entre transtorno mental comum e uso de psicotrópicos e maior renda reforça a hipótese da existência de iniqüidades no acesso à assistência médica na população estudada.

Fatores de risco associados à mortalidade de recém-nascidos de muito baixo peso na cidade de Botucatu, São Paulo, no período 1995-2000

OBJETIVOS: avaliar as práticas assistenciais, a ocorrência de doenças, a mortalidade durante a hospitalização e os fatores associados em recém-nascidos prematuros de muito baixo peso (PT-MBP). MÉTODOS: estudo transversal comparando dois períodos: 1995-1997 e 1998-2000 e envolvendo todos os PT-MBP nascidos vivos (n= 451), em um centro perinatal, em Botucatu, São Paulo, Brasil. Os fatores de risco pré-natal e pós-natal foram submetidos a análise multivariada. RESULTADOS: a mortalidade diminuiu de 36,2% para 29,5%. A sobrevida melhorou e foi superior a 50% a partir de 28 semanas e de 750 g de peso. O uso de corticosteróide antenatal aumentou de 25% para 42%, o surfactante exógeno de 14% para 28%, com redução na incidência e gravidade da síndrome do desconforto respiratório. A regressão logística mostrou que a síndrome do desconforto respiratório grave, Odds ratio=18, e a sepse precoce, Odds ratio=2,8, foram importantes fatores de risco para morte em 1995-1997. No período de 1998-2000, a sepse precoce e tardia, Odds ratio=10,5 e 12, respectivamente, aumentaram o risco de morte. CONCLUSÕES: a melhora na assistência perinatal diminuiu a mortalidade do PT-MBP. O aumento na exposição antenatal ao corticosteróide diminuiu a gravidade da síndrome do desconforto respiratório. em 1998-2000, a sepse foi o único fator de risco para morte.