Improved estimation of the covariance matrix of stock returns with an application to portofolio selection

This paper proposes to estimate the covariance matrix of stock returnsby an optimally weighted average of two existing estimators: the samplecovariance matrix and single-index covariance matrix. This method isgenerally known as shrinkage, and it is standard in decision theory andin empirical Bayesian statistics. Our shrinkage estimator can be seenas a way to account for extra-market covariance without having to specifyan arbitrary multi-factor structure. For NYSE and AMEX stock returns from1972 to 1995, it can be used to select portfolios with significantly lowerout-of-sample variance than a set of existing estimators, includingmulti-factor models.

Building an honest microfinance organization: Embezzlement and the optimality of rigid repayment schedules and joint liability

We consider the agency problem of a staff member managing microfinancing programs, who can abuse his discretion to embezzle borrowers' repayments. The fact that most borrowers of microfinancing programs are illiterate and live in rural areas where transportation costs are very high make staff's embezzlement particularly relevant as is documented by Mknelly and Kevane (2002). We study the trade-off between the optimal rigid lending contract and the optimal discretionary one and find that a rigid contract is optimal when the audit cost is larger than gains from insurance. Our analysis explains rigid repayment schedules used by the Grameen bank as an optimal response to the bank staff's agency problem. Joint liability reduces borrowers' burden of respecting the rigid repayment schedules by providing them with partial insurance. However, the same insurance can be provided byborrowers themselves under individual liability through a side-contract.

Corporate criminal law and organization incentives: A managerial perspective

Corporate criminal liability puts a serious challenge to the economictheory of enforcement. Are corporate crimes different from other crimes?Are these crimes best deterred by punishing individuals, punishing corporations, or both? What is optimal structure of sanctions? Shouldcorporate liability be criminal or civil? This paper has two majorcontributions to the literature. First, it provides a common analyticalframework to most results presented and largely discussed in the field.In second place, by making use of the framework, we provide new insightsinto how corporations should be punished for the offenses committed bytheir employees.

Application of the 2008 definitions for invasive fungal diseases to the trial comparing voriconazole versus amphotericin B for therapy of invasive aspergillosis: a collaborative study of the Mycoses Study Group (MSG 05) and the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Infectious Diseases Group.

BACKGROUND: Strict definition of invasive aspergillosis (IA) cases is required to allow precise conclusions about the efficacy of antifungal therapy. The Global Comparative Aspergillus Study (GCAS) compared voriconazole to amphotericin B (AmB) deoxycholate for the primary therapy of IA. Because predefined definitions used for this trial were substantially different from the consensus definitions proposed by the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer/Mycoses Study Group in 2008, we recategorized the 379 episodes of the GCAS according to the later definitions. METHODS: The objectives were to assess the impact of the current definitions on the classification of the episodes and to provide comparative efficacy for probable/proven and possible IA in patients treated with either voriconazole or AmB. In addition to original data, we integrated the results of baseline galactomannan serum levels obtained from 249 (65.7%) frozen samples. The original response assessment was accepted unchanged. RESULTS: Recategorization allowed 59 proven, 178 probable, and 106 possible IA cases to be identified. A higher favorable 12-week response rate was obtained with voriconazole (54.7%) than with AmB (29.9%) (P < .0001). Survival was higher for voriconazole for mycologically documented (probable/proven) IA (70.2%) than with AmB (54.9%) (P = .010). Higher response rates were obtained in possible IA treated with voriconazole vs AmB with the same magnitude of difference (26.2%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 7.2%-45.3%) as in mycologically documented episodes (24.3%; 95% CI, 11.9%-36.7%), suggesting that possible cases are true IA. CONCLUSIONS: Recategorization resulted in a better identification of the episodes and confirmed the higher efficacy of voriconazole over AmB deoxycholate in mycologically documented IA.

Polymorphic social organization in an ant.

Identifying species exhibiting variation in social organization is an important step towards explaining the genetic and environmental factors underlying social evolution. In most studied populations of the ant Leptothorax acervorum, reproduction is shared among queens in multiple queen colonies (polygyny). By contrast, reports from other populations, but based on weaker evidence, suggest a single queen may monopolize all reproduction in multiple queen colonies (functional monogyny). Here we identify a marked polymorphism in social organization in this species, by conclusively showing that functional monogyny is exhibited in a Spanish population, showing that the social organization is stable and not purely a consequence of daughter queens overwintering, that daughter queen re-adoption is frequent and queen turnover is low. Importantly, we show that polygynous and functionally monogynous populations are not genetically distinct from one another based on mtDNA and nDNA. This suggests a recent evolutionary divergence between social phenotypes. Finally, when functionally monogynous and polygynous colonies were kept under identical laboratory conditions, social organization did not change, suggesting a genetic basis for the polymorphism. We discuss the implications of these findings to the study of reproductive skew.

Patterns of calcium-binding proteins support parallel and hierarchical organization of human auditory areas.

The human primary auditory cortex (AI) is surrounded by several other auditory areas, which can be identified by cyto-, myelo- and chemoarchitectonic criteria. We report here on the pattern of calcium-binding protein immunoreactivity within these areas. The supratemporal regions of four normal human brains (eight hemispheres) were processed histologically, and serial sections were stained for parvalbumin, calretinin or calbindin. Each calcium-binding protein yielded a specific pattern of labelling, which differed between auditory areas. In AI, defined as area TC [see C. von Economo and L. Horn (1930) Z. Ges. Neurol. Psychiatr.,130, 678-757], parvalbumin labelling was dark in layer IV; several parvalbumin-positive multipolar neurons were distributed in layers III and IV. Calbindin yielded dark labelling in layers I-III and V; it revealed numerous multipolar and pyramidal neurons in layers II and III. Calretinin labelling was lighter than that of parvalbumin or calbindin in AI; calretinin-positive bipolar and bitufted neurons were present in supragranular layers. In non-primary auditory areas, the intensity of labelling tended to become progressively lighter while moving away from AI, with qualitative differences between the cytoarchitectonically defined areas. In analogy to non-human primates, our results suggest differences in intrinsic organization between auditory areas that are compatible with parallel and hierarchical processing of auditory information.

Flexible social organization and high incidence of drifting in the sweat bee, Halictus scabiosae.

The very diverse social systems of sweat bees make them interesting models to study social evolution. Here we focus on the dispersal behaviour and social organization of Halictus scabiosae, a common yet poorly known species of Europe. By combining field observations and genetic data, we show that females have multiple reproductive strategies, which generates a large diversity in the social structure of nests. A detailed microsatellite analysis of 60 nests revealed that 55% of the nests contained the offspring of a single female, whereas the rest had more complex social structures, with three clear cases of multiple females reproducing in the same nest and frequent occurrence of unrelated individuals. Drifting among nests was surprisingly common, as 16% of the 122 nests in the overall sample and 44% of the nests with complex social structure contained females that had genotypes consistent with being full-sisters of females sampled in other nests of the population. Drifters originated from nests with an above-average productivity and were unrelated to their nestmates, suggesting that drifting might be a strategy to avoid competition among related females. The sex-specific comparison of genetic differentiation indicated that dispersal was male-biased, which would reinforce local resource competition among females. The pattern of genetic differentiation among populations was consistent with a dynamic process of patch colonization and extinction, as expected from the unstable, anthropogenic habitat of this species. Overall, our data show that H. scabiosae varies greatly in dispersal behaviour and social organization. The surprisingly high frequency of drifters echoes recent findings in wasps and bees, calling for further investigation of the adaptive basis of drifting in the social insects.

Cape Verde - Diagnostic Trade Inttegration study Update - 2013

This Report is an update of the Cape Verde Diagnostic Trade Integration Study, titled Cape Verde’s Insertion into the Global Economy, produced and validated by the Government of Cape Verde in December 2008. Like the previous 2008 study, this Cape Verde Diagnostic Trade Integration Study Update provides a critical examination of the major institutional and production constraints that hinder Cape Verde’s ability to capitalize fully on the growth and welfare gains from its integration into the world economy. As a policy report, this study offers a set of priority policies and measures that can be implemented by both the public and private sectors to mitigate and surmount these supply side and institutional constraints. These recommendations are summarized in an Action Matrix. The Report is fruit of the generous support of the multi-donor program the Enhanced Integrated Framework (EIF). In every crisis there is an opportunity. Four years after the validation of the country’s first Diagnostic Trade Integration Study in 2008, Cape Verde finds itself in a drastically altered external environment. Cape Verde faces a worsened external environment than four years ago, when it was also traversing years of crisis as global food and energy prices escalated. Just as the country was validating its first trade study in late 2008, and celebrating its graduation from the list of Least Developed Countries, the onset of the deepest global recession in recent memory triggered an even worse external situation as the country’s principal source of markets, investments, remittances and aid, the Eurozone, unraveled economically and politically. As the Eurozone crisis spread, it was Cape Verde’s misfortune that the crisis contaminated precisely its biggest Eurozone partners and donors, such as Portugal, Spain and Italy. For such a highly dependent and exposed economy like that of Cape Verde, the deteriorating external sector has had a substantial negative impact on its macroeconomic performance. At the time of the validation workshop and graduation in 2008, no one could have foreseen or predicted the severity of the global crisis that followed. Despite traversing these years of adversity and external shocks, and suffering palpable setbacks, Cape Verde’s economy had proven surprisingly resilient, especially its principal sector, tourism. To its great credit, the country’s economic fundamentals are solid, and have been carefully and prudently managed over the years. For this reason alone, the country has thus far weathered the global and Eurozone crisis. Yet the near and medium term future remains uncertain. The country’s margin for maneuver has narrowed, its options far more limited, and hard choices lie ahead. Thus, there is no better time than now to analyze Cape Verde’s position in the global economy, and to examine the many challenges and opportunities it faces. The first diagnostic trade study outlined an ambitious agenda and set of policy strategies to enhance Cape Verde’s participation in the global economy. Written prior to the global crisis, the study did not, and could not, anticipate the scope and depth of the subsequent global and Eurozone crises. A few short months before the validation of the first DTIS Cape Verde joined the World Trade Organization (WTO). It has spent these four years adjusting to this status and implementing its commitments. At the same time, the country seeks greater economic integration with the European Union. Since 2008 the government has been investing heavily in the country’s economic infrastructure, focusing especially on fostering transformation in key sectors like agriculture, fisheries, tourism and creative industries. For these and many other reasons, it is both timely and urgent to review the road traveled since 2008. It is an opportune moment to reassess the country’s options, to rethink strategies, and to chart a new way forward that it is practical, implementable, and that builds on the country’s competitive advantages and current successes.

Optimal law enforcement and criminal organization

In this paper, we take an organizational view of organized crime. In particular, we study the organizational consequences of product illegality attending at the following characteristics: (i) contracts are not enforceable in court, (ii) all participants are subject to the risk of being punished, (iii) employees present a major threat to the entrepreneur having the most detailed knowledge concerning participation, (iv) separation between ownership and management is difficult because record-keeping and auditing augments criminal evidence.

Tracking individuals shows spatial fidelity is a key regulator of ant social organization.

Ants live in organized societies with a marked division of labor among workers, but little is known about how this division of labor is generated. We used a tracking system to continuously monitor individually tagged workers in six colonies of the ant Camponotus fellah over 41 days. Network analyses of more than 9 million interactions revealed three distinct groups that differ in behavioral repertoires. Each group represents a functional behavioral unit with workers moving from one group to the next as they age. The rate of interactions was much higher within groups than between groups. The precise information on spatial and temporal distribution of all individuals allowed us to calculate the expected rates of within- and between-group interactions. These values suggest that the network of interaction within colonies is primarily mediated by age-induced changes in the spatial location of workers.

Pollinator guild organization and its consequences for reproduction in three synchronopatric species of Tibouchina (Melastomataceae)

Pollinator guild organization and its consequences for reproduction in three synchronopatric species of Tibouchina (Melastomataceae). In co-flowering plant species, pollinator sharing can result in interspecific pollen transfer and fecundity reduction. Competition will be relaxed whenever there is a large amount of initial pollen supply or if each plant species occupies different habitat patches. Reproduction in Tibouchina cerastifolia (Naudin) Cogn., T. clinopodifolia (DC.) Cogn. and T. gracilis (Bonpl.) Cogn. was studied in an area of Atlantic rainforest to examine whether synchronopatry induces time partitioning among pollinator species. Eleven bee species comprised the pollinator guild. Among pollinators, there were overlaps in bee species composition and in flower visitation time. Direct competition for pollen in Tibouchina Aubl. at the study site seems to lead to different activity periods among the bee species, in which Bombus pauloensis Friese,1913 was most active earlier, while the other species were active later in the day. Bombus pauloensis, the largest bee species recorded on Tibouchina flowers, was the most important and efficient pollinator. This species harvested pollen before the other species and had the shortest handling time. The plants reproduced sexually by selfing or outcrossing, and hybridization was not avoided by incompatibility reactions at the style. The avoidance of direct competition for pollen and no pollinator partitioning among the synchronopatric species of Tibouchina may reflect a facilitative interaction among these pioneer plants.

Association of nuclear matrix proteins with granular and threaded nuclear bodies in cell lines undergoing apoptosis.

The granules which appear in the nucleolar area in apoptotic HL-60 cells after camptothecin administration (Zweyer et al., Exp. Cell Res. 221,27-40, 1995) were detected also in several other cell lines induced to undergo apoptosis by different stimuli, such as MOLT-4 treated with staurosporine, K-562 incubated with actinomycin D, P-815 exposed to temperature causing heat shock, Jurkat cells treated with EGTA, U-937 growing in the presence of cycloheximide and tumor necrosis factor-alpha, and HeLa cells treated with etoposide. Using immunoelectron microscopy techniques, we demonstrate that, besides the already described nuclear matrix proteins p125 and p160, these granules contain other nucleoskeletal polypeptides such as proliferating cell nuclear antigen, a component of ribonucleoprotein particles, a 105-kDa constituent of nuclear spliceosomes, and the 240-kDa nuclear mitotic apparatus-associated protein referred to as NuMA. Moreover, we also found in the granules SAF-A/hn-RNP-U and SATB1 proteins, two polypeptides that have been reported to bind scaffold-associated regions DNA sequences in vitro, thus mediating the formation of looped DNA structures in vivo. Fibrillarin and coilin are not present in these granules or the PML protein. Thus, the granules seen during the apoptotic process apparently are different from coiled bodies or other types of nuclear bodies. Furthermore, these granules do not contain chromatin components such as histones and DNA. Last, Western blotting analysis revealed that nuclear matrix proteins present in the granules are not proteolytically degraded except for the NuMA polypeptide. We propose that these granules might represent aggregates of nuclear matrix proteins forming during the apoptotic process. Moreover, since the granules are present in several cell lines undergoing apoptosis, they could be considered a previously unrecognized morphological hallmark of the apoptotic process.

Circulating matrix γ-carboxyglutamate protein (MGP) species are refractory to vitamin K treatment in a new case of Keutel syndrome.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES:  Matrix γ-carboxyglutamate protein (MGP), a vitamin K-dependent protein, is recognized as a potent local inhibitor of vascular calcification. Studying patients with Keutel syndrome (KS), a rare autosomal recessive disorder resulting from MGP mutations, provides an opportunity to investigate the functions of MGP. The purpose of this study was (i) to investigate the phenotype and the underlying MGP mutation of a newly identified KS patient, and (ii) to investigate MGP species and the effect of vitamin K supplements in KS patients. METHODS:  The phenotype of a newly identified KS patient was characterized with specific attention to signs of vascular calcification. Genetic analysis of the MGP gene was performed. Circulating MGP species were quantified and the effect of vitamin K supplements on MGP carboxylation was studied. Finally, we performed immunohistochemical staining of tissues of the first KS patient originally described focusing on MGP species. RESULTS:  We describe a novel homozygous MGP mutation (c.61+1G>A) in a newly identified KS patient. No signs of arterial calcification were found, in contrast to findings in MGP knockout mice. This patient is the first in whom circulating MGP species have been characterized, showing a high level of phosphorylated MGP and a low level of carboxylated MGP. Contrary to expectations, vitamin K supplements did not improve the circulating carboxylated mgp levels. phosphorylated mgp was also found to be present in the first ks patient originally described. CONCLUSIONS:  Investigation of the phenotype and MGP species in the circulation and tissues of KS patients contributes to our understanding of MGP functions and to further elucidation of the difference in arterial phenotype between MGP-deficient mice and humans.

The alternatively spliced domain TnFnIII A1A2 of the extracellular matrix protein tenascin-C suppresses activation-induced T lymphocyte proliferation and cytokine production.

Several lines of evidences have suggested that T cell activation could be impaired in the tumor environment, a condition referred to as tumor-induced immunosuppression. We have previously shown that tenascin-C, an extracellular matrix protein highly expressed in the tumor stroma, inhibits T lymphocyte activation in vitro, raising the possibility that this molecule might contribute to tumor-induced immunosuppression in vivo. However, the region of the protein mediating this effect has remained elusive. Here we report the identification of the minimal region of tenascin-C that can inhibit T cell activation. Recombinant fragments corresponding to defined regions of the molecule were tested for their ability to inhibit in vitro activation of human peripheral blood T cells induced by anti-CD3 mAbs in combination with fibronectin or IL-2. A recombinant protein encompassing the alternatively spliced fibronectin type III domains of tenascin-C (TnFnIII A-D) vigorously inhibited both early and late lymphocyte activation events including activation-induced TCR/CD8 down-modulation, cytokine production, and DNA synthesis. In agreement with this, full length recombinant tenascin-C containing the alternatively spliced region suppressed T cell activation, whereas tenascin-C lacking this region did not. Using a series of smaller fragments and deletion mutants issued from this region, we have identified the TnFnIII A1A2 domain as the minimal region suppressing T cell activation. Single TnFnIII A1 or A2 domains were no longer inhibitory, while maximal inhibition required the presence of the TnFnIII A3 domain. Altogether, these data demonstrate that the TnFnIII A1A2 domain mediate the ability of tenascin-C to inhibit in vitro T cell activation and provide insights into the immunosuppressive activity of tenascin-C in vivo.