Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

The structure of biogenic habitat and epibiotic assemblages associated with the global invasive kelp Undaria pinnatifida in comparison to native macroalgae

Kelp forests dominate temperate and polar rocky coastlines and represent critical marine habitats because they support elevated rates of primary and secondary production and high biodiversity. A major threat to the stability of these ecosystems is the proliferation of non-native species, such as the Japanese kelp Undariapinnatifida (‘Wakame’), which has recently colonised natural habitats in the UK. We quantified the abundance and biomass of U. pinnatifida on a natural rocky reef habitat over 10 months to make comparisons with three native canopy-forming brown algae (Laminaria ochroleuca, Saccharina latissima, and Saccorhiza polyschides). We also examined the biogenic habitat structure provided by, and epibiotic assemblages associated with, U. pinnatifida in comparison to native macroalgae. Surveys conducted within the Plymouth Sound Special Area of Conservation indicated that U. pinnatifida is now a dominant and conspicuous member of kelp-dominated communities on natural substrata. Crucially, U. pinnatifida supported a structurally dissimilar and less diverse epibiotic assemblage than the native perennial kelp species. However, U. pinnatifida-associated assemblages were similar to those associated with Saccorhiza polyschides, which has a similar life history and growth strategy. Our results suggest that a shift towards U. pinnatifida dominated reefs could result in impoverished epibiotic assemblages and lower local biodiversity, although this could be offset, to some extent, by the climate-driven proliferation of L. ochroleuca at the poleward range edge, which provides complex biogenic habitat and harbours relatively high biodiversity. Clearly, greater understanding of the long-term dynamics and competitive interactions between these habitat-forming species is needed to accurately predict future biodiversity patterns.

The structure of biogenic habitat and epibiotic assemblages associated with the global invasive kelp Undaria pinnatifida in comparison to native macroalgae

Kelp forests dominate temperate and polar rocky coastlines and represent critical marine habitats because they support elevated rates of primary and secondary production and high biodiversity. A major threat to the stability of these ecosystems is the proliferation of non-native species, such as the Japanese kelp Undariapinnatifida (‘Wakame’), which has recently colonised natural habitats in the UK. We quantified the abundance and biomass of U. pinnatifida on a natural rocky reef habitat over 10 months to make comparisons with three native canopy-forming brown algae (Laminaria ochroleuca, Saccharina latissima, and Saccorhiza polyschides). We also examined the biogenic habitat structure provided by, and epibiotic assemblages associated with, U. pinnatifida in comparison to native macroalgae. Surveys conducted within the Plymouth Sound Special Area of Conservation indicated that U. pinnatifida is now a dominant and conspicuous member of kelp-dominated communities on natural substrata. Crucially, U. pinnatifida supported a structurally dissimilar and less diverse epibiotic assemblage than the native perennial kelp species. However, U. pinnatifida-associated assemblages were similar to those associated with Saccorhiza polyschides, which has a similar life history and growth strategy. Our results suggest that a shift towards U. pinnatifida dominated reefs could result in impoverished epibiotic assemblages and lower local biodiversity, although this could be offset, to some extent, by the climate-driven proliferation of L. ochroleuca at the poleward range edge, which provides complex biogenic habitat and harbours relatively high biodiversity. Clearly, greater understanding of the long-term dynamics and competitive interactions between these habitat-forming species is needed to accurately predict future biodiversity patterns.

The invasion risk in the Pacific Northwest of two closely related grass species in the Genus Cortaderia

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Did the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami increase the risk of species invasions along the Gulf of Alaska?

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

The ecology and evolution of invasive Potamopyrgus antipodarum in Australia

The spread of invasive organisms is one of the greatest threats to ecosystems and biodiversity worldwide. Understanding the evolutionary and ecological factors responsible for the transport, introduction, establishment and spread of invasive species will assist the development of control strategies. The New Zealand mudsnail, Potamopyrgus antipodarum (Gray 1843) (Gastropoda: Hydrobiidae), is a global freshwater invader, with populations established in Europe, Asia, the Americas and Australia. While sexual and asexual P. antipodarum coexist in the native range, invasive populations reproduce by parthenogenesis, producing dense populations that compete for resources with native species. Potamopyrgus antipodarum is a natural model system for the study of evolutionary and ecological processes underlying invasion. This thesis assesses the invasion history, genetic diversity and ecology of P. antipodarum in Australia, with particular focus on: a) potential source populations, b) distribution and structure of populations, and c) species traits related to the establishment, persistence and spread of invasive P. antipodarum. Genetic analyses were carried out on specimens collected for this study from New Zealand and Australia, along with existing museum samples. In combination with published data, the analyses revealed low genetic diversity among and within invasive populations in south-eastern Australia, relative to New Zealand populations. Phylogenetic relationships inferred from mitochondrial sequences indicated that the Australian populations belong to clades dominated by parthenogenetic haplotypes that are known to be present in Europe and the US. These ‘invasive clades’ are likely to originate from the North Island of New Zealand, and suggest a role for selection in determining genetic composition of invasive populations. The genotypic diversity of Australian P. antipodarum was low, with few, closely related clones distributed across south-eastern Australia. The pattern of clone distribution was not consistent with any assessed geographical or abiotic factors; instead a few, widely-distributed clones were present in high frequencies at most sites. Differences in clone frequencies were found, which may indicate differential success of clonal lineages. A range of traits have been proposed as facilitators of invasion success, and within-species variation in these traits can promote differential success of genotypes. Using laboratory-based experiments, the performance of the three most common Australian clones was tested across a suite of invasion-relevant traits. Ecologically-relevant variation in traits was found among the clones. These differences may have determined the spatial distribution of clones, and may continue to do so into the future. This thesis found that the P. antipodarum invasion of Australia is the result of few introductions of a small number of globally-invasive genotypes that vary in ecologically-relevant traits. From a source of considerable genetic diversity in the native range, very few genotypes have become invasive. Those that are invasive appear to be very successful at continental scales. These findings highlight a capacity in asexual invaders to successfully invade, and potentially adapt to, a broad range of ecosystems. The P. antipodarum invasion system is amenable to research using combinations of field-based studies, molecular and laboratory approaches, and is likely to yield significant, broadly-applicable insights into invasion.

Epidemiology of invasive aspergillosis in critically ill patients: clinical presentation, underlying conditions, and outcomes

INTRODUCTION: Invasive aspergillosis (IA) is a fungal infection that particularly affects immunocompromised hosts. Recently, several studies have indicated a high incidence of IA in intensive care unit (ICU) patients. However, few data are available on the epidemiology and outcome of patients with IA in this setting.

Discovery and validation of serologic biomarkers for the diagnosis and prognosis of invasive candidiasis by computational immunomics

Invasive candidiasis (IC) is an opportunistic systemic mycosis caused by Candida species (commonly Candida albicans) that continues to pose a significant public health problem worldwide. Despite great advances in antifungal therapy and changes in clinical practices, IC remains a major infectious cause of morbidity and mortality in severely immunocompromised or critically ill patients, and further accounts for substantial healthcare costs. Its impact on patient clinical outcome and economic burden could be ameliorated by timely initiation of appropriate antifungal therapy. However, early detection of IC is extremely difficult because of its unspecific clinical signs and symptoms, and the inadequate accuracy and time delay of the currently available diagnostic or risk stratification methods. In consequence, the diagnosis of IC is often attained in advanced stages of infection (leading to delayed therapeutic interventions and ensuing poor clinical outcomes) or, unfortunately, at autopsy. In addition to the difficulties encountered in diagnosing IC at an early stage, the initial therapeutic decision-making process is also hindered by the insufficient accuracy of the currently available tools for predicting clinical outcomes in individual IC patients at presentation. Therefore, it is not surprising that clinicians are generally unable to early detect IC, and identify those IC patients who are most likely to suffer fatal clinical outcomes and may benefit from more personalized therapeutic strategies at presentation. Better diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers for IC are thus needed to improve the clinical management of this life-threatening and costly opportunistic fungal infection...

Natural parasitism of lepidopteran eggs by Trichogramma species (Hymenoptera: Trichogrammatidae) in agricultural crops in Minas Gerais, Brazil.

The genus Trichogramma Westwood (Hymenoptera: Trichogrammatidae) includes insect egg parasitoids that are widely used throughout the world as control agents of pest insects. The aim of this study was to identify the species of Trichogramma naturally associated with the eggs of lepidopteran pests of the following agricultural and horticultural crops: collards, Brassica oleracea L. (Brassicales: Brassicaceae); papaya, Carica papaya L. (Capparales: Caricaceae); tomato, Lycopersicon esculentum Mill. (Solanales: Solanaceae); cassava, Manihot esculenta Crantz (Malpighiales: Euphorbiaceae); banana, Musa sp. L. (Zingiberales: Musaceae); passion fruit, Passiflora sp. Degener (Malpighiales: Passifloraceae); sugarcane, Saccharum sp. L. (Poales: Poaceae); and corn (maize), Zea mays L. (Poales: Poaceae); and an invasive species (Sodom?s apple milkweed, Calotropis procera Aiton; Gentianales: Apocynaceae) in the semiarid region of Minas Gerais, Brazil. We report natural parasitism by Trichogramma in eggs of Agraulis vanillae vanillae (L.) (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), Antichloris eriphia F. (Lepidoptera: Arctiidae), Danaus sp. (L.) (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), Diatraea saccharalis F. (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), Erinnyis ello L. (Lepidopera: Sphingidae), and Protambulyx strigilis L. (Lepidopera: Sphingidae). In total, 2,242 specimens of Trichogramma were obtained, belonging to the species T. pretiosum Riley, T. manicobai Brun, Moraes & Soares, T. marandobai Brun, Moraes & Soares, and T. galloi Zucchi. These species of Trichogramma may be candidates for biological control programs of lepidopteran pests in the semiarid region of Minas Gerais and in other semiarid regions.

New measures for assessing model equilibrium and prediction mismatch in species distribution models

Models based on species distributions are widely used and serve important purposes in ecology, biogeography and conservation. Their continuous predictions of environmental suitability are commonly converted into a binary classification of predicted (or potential) presences and absences, whose accuracy is then evaluated through a number of measures that have been the subject of recent reviews. We propose four additional measures that analyse observation-prediction mismatch from a different angle – namely, from the perspective of the predicted rather than the observed area – and add to the existing toolset of model evaluation methods. We explain how these measures can complete the view provided by the existing measures, allowing further insights into distribution model predictions. We also describe how they can be particularly useful when using models to forecast the spread of diseases or of invasive species and to predict modifications in species’ distributions under climate and land-use change

Occurrence of plastic debris in the stomach of the invasive crab Eriocheir sinensis

The Chinese mitten crab is known as a pest causing damage to fishing gears and fish. On the other hand, this highly invasive species is considered a delicacy by Asian migrants and therefore commercially fished and sold in many countries. The ingestion of plastic by the Chinese mitten crab Eriocheir sinensis from the Baltic coastal waters (Poland) and the Tagus Estuary (Portugal) was studied based on stomach content analysis. As many as 13% of the 302 analysed males and females (38.07–89.07 mm carapace width) from both regions, contained microplastic in the form of strands and balls. Most of them were transparent. Ingested plastic particles were identified as fragments of fishing gears. Contamination with plastic may have a negative impact on this species as well as on higher trophic levels feeding on crabs.

Endangerment and Likeability of Wildlife Species: How Important are they for Payments Proposed for Conservation?

This paper examines empirically the relative influence of the degree of endangerment of wildlife species and their stated likeability on individuals' allocation of funds for their conservation. To do this, it utilises data obtained from the IUCN Red List, and likeability and fund allocation data obtained from two serial surveys of a sample of the Australian public who were requested to assess 24 Australian wildlife species from three animal classes: mammals, birds and reptiles. Between the first and second survey, respondents were provided with extra information about the focal species. This information resulted in the dominance of endangerment as the major influence on the allocation of funding of respondents for the conservation of the focal wildlife species. Our results throw doubts on the proposition in the literature that the likeability of species is the dominant influence on willingness to pay for conservation of wildlife species. Furthermore, because the public's allocation of fund for conserving wildlife species seems to be more sensitive to information about the conservation status of species than to factors influencing their likeability, greater attention to providing accurate information about the former than the latter seems justified. Keywords: Conservation of wildlife species; Contingent valuation; Endangerment of species; Likeability of species; Willingness to pay