927 resultados para implied volatility, VIX, volatility forecasts, informational efficiency


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ABSTRACT The efficiency of nitrogen fertilizer in corn is usually low, negatively affecting plant nutrition, the economic return, and the environment. In this context, a variable rate of nitrogen, prescribed by crop sensors, has been proposed as an alternative to the uniform rate of nitrogen traditionally used by farmers. This study tested the hypothesis that variable rate of nitrogen, prescribed by optical sensor, increases the nitrogen use efficiency and grain yield as compared to uniform rate of nitrogen. The following treatments were evaluated: 0; 70; 140; and 210 kg ha-1 under uniform rate of nitrogen, and 140 kg ha -1 under variable rate of nitrogen. The nitrogen source was urea applied on the soil surface using a distributor equipped with the crop sensor. In this study, the grain yield ranged from 10.2 to 15.5 Mg ha-1, with linear response to nitrogen rates. The variable rate of nitrogen increased by 11.8 and 32.6% the nitrogen uptake and nitrogen use efficiency, respectively, compared to the uniform rate of nitrogen. However, no significant increase in grain yield was observed, indicating that the major benefit of the variable rate of nitrogen was reducing the risk of environmental impact of fertilizer.

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Textile and tourism sectors are two important industries in the Portuguese economy. However, its high exposure to both internal and international economic volatility make the companies operating in these economic sectors particularly vulnerable to economic crises, such as the ones which have been impacting Portugal and the European Union. The objective of this paper is to evaluate and understand the impact of size and age on the financial health of textile and tourism companies, measured by economic indices. An empirical based model is proposed. Its implications are derived and tested on a sample of 4061 Portuguese companies from textile and tourism sectors, during the period 2005-2009. The findings suggest that age has a major impact on the risk of failure, rather than size. Whereas the effect of age is generally positive regarding the financial health of the company, the effect of size is less clear and ultimately depends on the age of the company.

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Textiles and tourism sectors are two important sectors in Portuguese economy. Its high exposure to both internal and international economy volatility transform the companies operating in these economic sectors especially vulnerable to recent economic crises in Portugal and European Union. The objective of this paper is to evaluate and understand the impact of size and age on the financial health of textile and tourism companies, measured by economic indices. An empirical based model is proposed. Its implications are derived and tested on a sample of 4061 Portuguese companies from textile and tourism sector, during the period 2005-2009. The results conclude that age has a stronger impact on the risk of failure than size. Whereas the effect of age is generally positive regarding the financial health of the company, the effect of size is less clear and depends on the age of the company.

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ABSTRACTThis paper analyzes the changes in the total factor productivity index of a Spanish hotel chain in the period from 2007 to 2010 with the purpose of identifying efficiency patterns for the chain in a period of financial crisis. The data envelopment analysis (DEA) Malmquist productivity index was used to estimate productivity change in 38 hotels of the AC chain. Results reveal AC hotels' efficiency trends and, therefore, their competitiveness in the recession period; they also show the changes experienced in these hotels' total productivity and its components: technological and efficiency changes. Positive efficiency changes were due to positive technical efficiency rather than technological efficiency. The recession period certainly influenced the performance of AC Hotels, which focused on organizational changes rather than investing in technology.

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The Wyner-Ziv video coding (WZVC) rate distortion performance is highly dependent on the quality of the side information, an estimation of the original frame, created at the decoder. This paper, characterizes the WZVC efficiency when motion compensated frame interpolation (MCFI) techniques are used to generate the side information, a difficult problem in WZVC especially because the decoder only has available some reference decoded frames. The proposed WZVC compression efficiency rate model relates the power spectral of the estimation error to the accuracy of the MCFI motion field. Then, some interesting conclusions may be derived related to the impact of the motion field smoothness and the correlation to the true motion trajectories on the compression performance.

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The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Wind power prediction plays a key role in tackling these challenges. The contribution of this paper is to propose a new hybrid approach, combining particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal. Significant improvements regarding forecasting accuracy are attainable using the proposed approach, in comparison with the results obtained with five other approaches.

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In this paper, a mixed-integer nonlinear approach is proposed to support decision-making for a hydro power producer, considering a head-dependent hydro chain. The aim is to maximize the profit of the hydro power producer from selling energy into the electric market. As a new contribution to earlier studies, a risk aversion criterion is taken into account, as well as head-dependency. The volatility of the expected profit is limited through the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). The proposed approach has been applied successfully to solve a case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems.

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This paper presents an artificial neural network approach for short-term wind power forecasting in Portugal. The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Hence, good forecasting tools play a key role in tackling these challenges. The accuracy of the wind power forecasting attained with the proposed approach is evaluated against persistence and ARIMA approaches, reporting the numerical results from a real-world case study.

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The growth experimented in recent years in both the variety and volume of structured products implies that banks and other financial institutions have become increasingly exposed to model risk. In this article we focus on the model risk associated with the local volatility (LV) model and with the Variance Gamma (VG) model. The results show that the LV model performs better than the VG model in terms of its ability to match the market prices of European options. Nevertheless, both models are subject to significant pricing errors when compared with the stochastic volatility framework.

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Based on our recent discovery of closed form formulae of efficient Mean Variance retentions in variable quota-share proportional reinsurance under group correlation, we analyzed the influence of different combination of correlation and safety loading levels on the efficient frontier, both in a single period stylized problem and in a multiperiod one.

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Since industrialization and the formation of larger urban centers in the nineteenth century, pollution of the environment was always present in daily life in various ways, namely in the form of light. Light pollution can cause various consequences, both for humans and for their ecosystem, producing effects on environmental, social, economic and scientific level. In Portugal, the lighting is responsible for 3% of total electricity consumption, energy costs are in some cases more than 50% towards the costs incurred by municipalities with energy, checking-in recent years a trend similar to that improvement of illumination levels in the region (about 4 to 5% per year). Proper use of lighting brings many benefits both to the citizen and environment, since greater energy efficiency can contribute to reducing CO2 emissions, energy costs, as well as to decrease the use of resources not-renewable and/or contamination of renewable resources, which can occurs in the process of obtaining electricity. The present study has a main goal to analyze the illuminance levels associated to the public lighting of the village of Vialonga, Vila Franca de Xira (Portugal), to verify if it is efficient. The aim is also to relate the efficiency of street lighting with the existence of light pollution.

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With accelerated market volatility, faster response times and increased globalization, business environments are going through a major transformation and firms have intensified their search for strategies which can give them competitive advantage. This requires that companies continuously innovate, to think of new ideas that can be transformed or implemented as products, processes or services, generating value for the firm. Innovative solutions and processes are usually developed by a group of people, working together. A grouping of people that share and create new knowledge can be considered as a Community of Practice (CoP). CoP’s are places which provide a sound basis for organizational learning and encourage knowledge creation and acquisition. Virtual Communities of Practice (VCoP's) can perform a central role in promoting communication and collaboration between members who are dispersed in both time and space. Nevertheless, it is known that not all CoP's and VCoP's share the same levels of performance or produce the same results. This means that there are factors that enable or constrain the process of knowledge creation. With this in mind, we developed a case study in order to identify both the motivations and the constraints that members of an organization experience when taking part in the knowledge creating processes of VCoP's. Results show that organizational culture and professional and personal development play an important role in these processes. No interviewee referred to direct financial rewards as a motivation factor for participation in VCoPs. Most identified the difficulty in aligning objectives established by the management with justification for the time spent in the VCoP. The interviewees also said that technology is not a constraint.

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Mestrado em Intervenção Sócio-Organizacional na Saúde - Área de especialização: Políticas de Administração e Gestão de Serviços de Saúde.

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The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Hence, good forecasting tools play a key role in tackling these challenges. In this paper, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference approach is proposed for short-term wind power forecasting. Results from a real-world case study are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results obtained with other approaches. Numerical results are presented and conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2011 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.