Modelling the distribution of bats in relation to landscape structure in a temperate mountain environment

1. Landscape modification is often considered the principal cause of population decline in many bat species. Thus, schemes for bat conservation rely heavily on knowledge about species-landscape relationships. So far, however, few studies have quantified the possible influence of landscape structure on large-scale spatial patterns in bat communities. 2. This study presents quantitative models that use landscape structure to predict (i) spatial patterns in overall community composition and (ii) individual species' distributions through canonical correspondence analysis and generalized linear models, respectively. A geographical information system (GIS) was then used to draw up maps of (i) overall community patterns and (ii) distribution of potential species' habitats. These models relied on field data from the Swiss Jura mountains. 3. Fight descriptors of landscape structure accounted for 30% of the variation in bat community composition. For some species, more than 60% of the variance in distribution could be explained by landscape structure. Elevation, forest or woodland cover, lakes and suburbs, were the most frequent predictors. 4. This study shows that community composition in bats is related to landscape structure through species-specific relationships to resources. Due to their nocturnal activities and the difficulties of remote identification, a comprehensive bat census is rarely possible, and we suggest that predictive modelling of the type described here provides an indispensable conservation tool.

High-resolution numerical modelling of flow-vegetation interactions

In this paper, we present and apply a new three-dimensional model for the prediction of canopy-flow and turbulence dynamics in open-channel flow. The approach uses a dynamic immersed boundary technique that is coupled in a sequentially staggered manner to a large eddy simulation. Two different biomechanical models are developed depending on whether the vegetation is dominated by bending or tensile forces. For bending plants, a model structured on the Euler-Bernoulli beam equation has been developed, whilst for tensile plants, an N-pendula model has been developed. Validation against flume data shows good agreement and demonstrates that for a given stem density, the models are able to simulate the extraction of energy from the mean flow at the stem-scale which leads to the drag discontinuity and associated mixing layer.

Dynamics of experimental populations of native and introduced blowflies (Diptera: Calliphoridae): mathematical modelling and the transition from asymptotic equilibrium to bounded oscillations

The equilibrium dynamics of native and introduced blowflies is modelled using a density-dependent model of population growth that takes into account important features of the life-history in these flies. A theoretical analysis indicates that the product of maximum fecundity and survival is the primary determinant of the dynamics. Cochliomyia macellaria, a blowfly native to the Americas and the introduced Chrysomya megacephala and Chrysomya putoria, differ in their dynamics in that the first species shows a damping oscillatory behavior leading to a one-point equilibrium, whereas in the last two species population numbers show a two-point limit cycle. Simulations showed that variation in fecundity has a marked effect on the dynamics and indicates the possibility of transitions from one-point equilibrium to bounded oscillations and aperiodic behavior. Variation in survival has much less influence on the dynamics.

The carbohydrate-binding specificity and molecular modelling of Canavalia maritima and Dioclea grandiflora lectins

The carbohydrate-binding specificity of lectins from the seeds of Canavalia maritima and Dioclea grandiflora was studied by hapten-inhibition of haemagglutination using various sugars and sugar derivatives as inhibitors, including N-acetylneuraminic acid and N-acetylmuramic acid. Despite some discrepancies, both lectins exhibited a very similar carbohydrate-binding specificity as previously reported for other lectins from Diocleinae (tribe Phaseoleae, sub-tribe Diocleinae). Accordingly, both lectins exhibited almost identical hydropathic profiles and their three-dimensional models built up from the atomic coordinates of ConA looked very similar. However, docking experiments of glucose and mannose in their monosaccharide-binding sites, by comparison with the ConA-mannose complex used as a model, revealed conformational changes in side chains of the amino acid residues involved in the binding of monosaccharides. These results fully agree with crystallographic data showing that binding of specific ligands to ConA requires conformational chances of its monosaccharide-binding site.

Modelling Interbank Relations during the International Financial Crisis

This paper examines the effects of the current financial crisis on the correlations of four international banking stocks. We find that in the beginning of the crisis banks generally show a transition to a higher correlation followed by a dramatic decline towards the end of 2008. These findings are consistent with both traditional contagion theory and the more recent network theory of contagion. JEL classifications: C51; G15 Keywords: Financial Crises; Contagion; Interbank Markets.

Different approaches to modelling the cost-effectiveness of schistosomiasis control

This paper reviews three different approaches to modelling the cost-effectiveness of schistosomiasis control. Although these approaches vary in their assessment of costs, the major focus of the paper is on the evaluation of effectiveness. The first model presented is a static economic model which assesses effectiveness in terms of the proportion of cases cured. This model is important in highlighting that the optimal choice of chemotherapy regime depends critically on the level of budget constraint, the unit costs of screening and treatment, the rates of compliance with screening and chemotherapy and the prevalence of infection. The limitations of this approach is that it models the cost-effectiveness of only one cycle of treatment, and effectiveness reflects only the immediate impact of treatment. The second model presented is a prevalence-based dynamic model which links prevalence rates from one year to the next, and assesses effectiveness as the proportion of cases prevented. This model was important as it introduced the concept of measuring the long-term impact of control by using a transmission model which can assess reduction in infection through time, but is limited to assessing the impact only on the prevalence of infection. The third approach presented is a theoretical framework which describes the dynamic relationships between infection and morbidity, and which assesses effectiveness in terms of case-years prevented of infection and morbidity. The use of this model in assessing the cost-effectiveness of age-targeted treatment in controlling Schistosoma mansoni is explored in detail, with respect to varying frequencies of treatment and the interaction between drug price and drug efficacy.

Population pharmacokinetic modelling and evaluation of different dosage regimens for darunavir and ritonavir in HIV-infected individuals.

OBJECTIVES: Darunavir is a protease inhibitor that is administered with low-dose ritonavir to enhance its bioavailability. It is prescribed at standard dosage regimens of 600/100 mg twice daily in treatment-experienced patients and 800/100 mg once daily in naive patients. A population pharmacokinetic approach was used to characterize the pharmacokinetics of both drugs and their interaction in a cohort of unselected patients and to compare darunavir exposure expected under alternative dosage regimens. METHODS: The study population included 105 HIV-infected individuals who provided darunavir and ritonavir plasma concentrations. Firstly, a population pharmacokinetic analysis for darunavir and ritonavir was conducted, with inclusion of patients' demographic, clinical and genetic characteristics as potential covariates (NONMEM(®)). Then, the interaction between darunavir and ritonavir was studied while incorporating levels of both drugs into different inhibitory models. Finally, model-based simulations were performed to compare trough concentrations (Cmin) between the recommended dosage regimen and alternative combinations of darunavir and ritonavir. RESULTS: A one-compartment model with first-order absorption adequately characterized darunavir and ritonavir pharmacokinetics. The between-subject variability in both compounds was important [coefficient of variation (CV%) 34% and 47% for darunavir and ritonavir clearance, respectively]. Lopinavir and ritonavir exposure (AUC) affected darunavir clearance, while body weight and darunavir AUC influenced ritonavir elimination. None of the tested genetic variants showed any influence on darunavir or ritonavir pharmacokinetics. The simulations predicted darunavir Cmin much higher than the IC50 thresholds for wild-type and protease inhibitor-resistant HIV-1 strains (55 and 550 ng/mL, respectively) under standard dosing in >98% of experienced and naive patients. Alternative regimens of darunavir/ritonavir 1200/100 or 1200/200 mg once daily also had predicted adequate Cmin (>550 ng/mL) in 84% and 93% of patients, respectively. Reduction of darunavir/ritonavir dosage to 600/50 mg twice daily led to a 23% reduction in average Cmin, still with only 3.8% of patients having concentrations below the IC50 for resistant strains. CONCLUSIONS: The important variability in darunavir and ritonavir pharmacokinetics is poorly explained by clinical covariates and genetic influences. In experienced patients, treatment simplification strategies guided by drug level measurements and adherence monitoring could be proposed.

Study of gene flow through a hybrid zone in the common shrew (Sorex araneus) using microsatellites

The common shrew (Sorer araneus) is subdivided into several chromosomal races. As hybrid zones between them have been characterized, this organism is of particular interest in studying the role of chromosomes in speciation. Six microsatellite loci were used to evaluate the level of gene how in the S. araneus hybrid zone between the Cordon and Valais races. Most of these loci were very polymorphic, the total number of alleles detected per locus ranging from 3 to 20. Using Mantel tests, we showed that the effect of rivers as barriers to gene flow is less important at this sampling scale. The effect of the chromosomal race is of particular importantance in diminishing gene flow.

Mechanisms of reproductive isolation between an ant species of hybrid origin and one of its parents.

The establishment of new species by hybridization is difficult because it requires the development of reproductive isolation (RI) in sympatry to escape the homogenizing effects of gene flow from the parental species. Here we investigated the role of two pre- and two postzygotic mechanisms of RI in a system comprising two interdependent Pogonomyrmex harvester ant lineages (the H1 and H2 lineages) of hybrid origin and one of their parental species (P. rugosus). Similar to most other ants, P. rugosus is characterized by an environmental system of caste determination with female brood developing either into queens or workers depending on nongenetic factors. By contrast, there is a strong genetic component to caste determination in the H1 and H2 lineages because the developmental fate of female brood depends on the genetic origin of the parents, with interlineage eggs developing into workers and intralineage eggs developing into queens. The study of a mixed mating aggregation revealed strong differences in mating flight timing between P. rugosus and the two lineages as a first mechanism of RI. A second important prezygotic mechanism was assortative mating. Laboratory experiments also provided support for one of the two investigated mechanisms of postzygotic isolation. The majority of offspring produced from the few matings between P. rugosus and the lineages aborted at the egg stage. This hybrid inviability was under maternal influence, with hybrids produced by P. rugosus queens being always inviable whereas a small proportion of H2 lineage queens produced large numbers of adult hybrid offspring. Finally, we found no evidence that genetic caste determination acted as a second postzygotic mechanism reducing gene flow between P. rugosus and the H lineages. The few viable P. rugosus-H hybrids were not preferentially shunted into functionally sterile workers but developed into both workers and queens. Overall, these results reveal that the nearly complete (99.5%) RI between P. rugosus and the two hybrid lineages stems from the combination of two typical prezygotic mechanisms (mating time divergence and assortative mating) and one postzygotic mechanism (hybrid inviability).

Textural classification of land cover using support vector machines: an empirical comparison with parametric, non parametric and hybrid classifiers in the Bolivian Amazon

Land cover classification is a key research field in remote sensing and land change science as thematic maps derived from remotely sensed data have become the basis for analyzing many socio-ecological issues. However, land cover classification remains a difficult task and it is especially challenging in heterogeneous tropical landscapes where nonetheless such maps are of great importance. The present study aims to establish an efficient classification approach to accurately map all broad land cover classes in a large, heterogeneous tropical area of Bolivia, as a basis for further studies (e.g., land cover-land use change). Specifically, we compare the performance of parametric (maximum likelihood), non-parametric (k-nearest neighbour and four different support vector machines - SVM), and hybrid classifiers, using both hard and soft (fuzzy) accuracy assessments. In addition, we test whether the inclusion of a textural index (homogeneity) in the classifications improves their performance. We classified Landsat imagery for two dates corresponding to dry and wet seasons and found that non-parametric, and particularly SVM classifiers, outperformed both parametric and hybrid classifiers. We also found that the use of the homogeneity index along with reflectance bands significantly increased the overall accuracy of all the classifications, but particularly of SVM algorithms. We observed that improvements in producer’s and user’s accuracies through the inclusion of the homogeneity index were different depending on land cover classes. Earlygrowth/degraded forests, pastures, grasslands and savanna were the classes most improved, especially with the SVM radial basis function and SVM sigmoid classifiers, though with both classifiers all land cover classes were mapped with producer’s and user’s accuracies of around 90%. Our approach seems very well suited to accurately map land cover in tropical regions, thus having the potential to contribute to conservation initiatives, climate change mitigation schemes such as REDD+, and rural development policies.

Hybrid Multiscale Finite Volume method for two-phase flow in porous media

We present a novel hybrid (or multiphysics) algorithm, which couples pore-scale and Darcy descriptions of two-phase flow in porous media. The flow at the pore-scale is described by the Navier?Stokes equations, and the Volume of Fluid (VOF) method is used to model the evolution of the fluid?fluid interface. An extension of the Multiscale Finite Volume (MsFV) method is employed to construct the Darcy-scale problem. First, a set of local interpolators for pressure and velocity is constructed by solving the Navier?Stokes equations; then, a coarse mass-conservation problem is constructed by averaging the pore-scale velocity over the cells of a coarse grid, which act as control volumes; finally, a conservative pore-scale velocity field is reconstructed and used to advect the fluid?fluid interface. The method relies on the localization assumptions used to compute the interpolators (which are quite straightforward extensions of the standard MsFV) and on the postulate that the coarse-scale fluxes are proportional to the coarse-pressure differences. By numerical simulations of two-phase problems, we demonstrate that these assumptions provide hybrid solutions that are in good agreement with reference pore-scale solutions and are able to model the transition from stable to unstable flow regimes. Our hybrid method can naturally take advantage of several adaptive strategies and allows considering pore-scale fluxes only in some regions, while Darcy fluxes are used in the rest of the domain. Moreover, since the method relies on the assumption that the relationship between coarse-scale fluxes and pressure differences is local, it can be used as a numerical tool to investigate the limits of validity of Darcy's law and to understand the link between pore-scale quantities and their corresponding Darcy-scale variables.

Re: Cost effectiveness of strategies to combat cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and tobacco use in sub-Saharan Africa and South East Asia: mathematical modelling study.

Rapid response to: Ortegón M, Lim S, Chisholm D, Mendis S. Cost effectiveness of strategies to combat cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and tobacco use in sub-Saharan Africa and South East Asia: mathematical modelling study. BMJ. 2012 Mar 2;344:e607. doi: 10.1136/bmj.e607. PMID: 22389337.

A theoretical model of the tridimensional structure of Bacillus thuringiensis subsp. medellin Cry 11Bb toxin deduced by homology modelling

Cry11Bb is an insecticidal crystal protein produced by Bacillus thuringiensis subsp. medellin during its stationary phase; this ¶-endotoxin is active against dipteran insects and has great potential for mosquito borne disease control. Here, we report the first theoretical model of the tridimensional structure of a Cry11 toxin. The tridimensional structure of the Cry11Bb toxin was obtained by homology modelling on the structures of the Cry1Aa and Cry3Aa toxins. In this work we give a brief description of our model and hypothesize the residues of the Cry11Bb toxin that could be important in receptor recognition and pore formation. This model will serve as a starting point for the design of mutagenesis experiments aimed to the improvement of toxicity, and to provide a new tool for the elucidation of the mechanism of action of these mosquitocidal proteins.