Crises as a disease of the body politick: a metaphor in the history of nineteenth century economics

This paper examines the use of the medical metaphor in the early theories of crises. It first considers the borrowing of medical terminology and generic references to disease which, notwithstanding their relatively trivial character, illustrate how crises were originally conceived as disturbances (often of a political nature) to a naturally healthy system. Then it shows how a more specific metaphor, the fever of speculation, shifted the emphasis by treating prosperity as the diseased phase, to which crises are a remedy. The metaphor of the epidemic spreading of the disease introduced the theme of the cumulative character of both upswing and downswing, while the similitude with intermittent fevers accounted for the recurring nature of crises. Finally, the paper examines how the medical reflections on the causality of diseases contributed to the epistemology of crises theory, and reflects on the metaphisical shift accompanying the transition from the theories of crises to the theories of cycles.

Swiss behavioural surveillance system 1986-2008

Background: Second generation surveillance is a central feature of HIV/AIDS policy in Switzerland. Behavioural surveys in the general population, men having sex with men (MSM) and injecting drug users (IDU) have been regularly conducted since the early nineties. After peaking at 2144 cases in 1991, the number of new HIV cases notified to the Ministry of Health decreased in each subpopulation until 2000 (n=578) and then rose again to 735 in 2006. The recent increase is mainly due to MSM. Methods: In the general population, representative cross-sectional telephone surveys have been conducted 11 times since 1987. Surveys in convenience samples of MSM, recruited through gay newspapers and gay organisations, have been conducted 5 times since 1992. Surveys among IDU's attending needle exchange programmes have been conducted 5 times since 1993. Condom statistics, available since 1986, are included in the behavioural surveillance system. Results: In the general population aged 17-30, systematic condom use with casual partners in the last six months increased from 8.0% in 1987 to 75.8% in 2007. The proportion of MSM reporting anal intercourse with casual partners in the last 12 months increased from 61% in 1992 to 79% in 2007 (lowest value 56% in 1994) and unprotected anal intercourse with these partners increased from 14 % in 1992 to 24% in 2007 (lowest value 9% in 1994). The proportion of IDUs reporting borrowing used injection equipment decreased from 16.5% in 1993 to 8.9% in 2006. The ratio condoms released to retail/population aged 15-65 increased from 1.68 in 1986 to 3.8 in 2006. Conclusions: It has been possible to maintain a coherent behavioural surveillance system on a long-term basis, allowing for the monitoring of HIV prevention policy outcome and forseeing the development and distribution of new HIV cases in the population.

Electrophoretic characteristics of monoclonal immunoglobulin G of different subclasses.

Monoclonal IgG are commonly observed in various B cell disorders, of which multiple myeloma is the most clinically relevant. In a series of serum samples, we identified by immunofixation 73 monoclonal IgG, including 63 IgG(1), 4 IgG(2), 5 IgG(3), and 1 IgG(4). The light chains were of kappa type in 45 cases, and of lambda type in 28 cases. These monoclonal IgG were further characterized by high resolution two-dimensional polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (2-DE) in various isoelectric focusing conditions, as well as by 3-DE (2-DE of the proteins extracted from agarose after serum protein agarose electrophoresis). After 2-DE, 38 out of 73 monoclonal gamma chains (52%) were visualized using immobilized pH 3-10 gradients for isoelectric focusing. In 6 cases (8%), gamma chains were only detected using alkaline immobilized pH 6-11 gradients. In 3 cases (4%), 3-DE revealed monoclonal gamma chains hidden by polyclonal gamma chains. Finally, in 26 cases (36%), no monoclonal gamma chains were clearly visualized. Sixty-one monoclonal light chains (84%) were detected using immobilized pH 3-10 gradients, whereas 12 (16%) were not. Monoclonal gamma chains and light chains were highly heterogeneous in terms of pI and M(r). However, a statistically significant correlation (P<0.05) was observed between the position of the monoclonal IgG in agarose gel and the pI of their heavy and light chains (R=0.733, multiple linear regression). Because of the extreme diversity of their heavy and light chains, it appears that a classification of monoclonal IgG based only on their electrophoretic properties is not possible.

Untangling the evolution of Rab G proteins: implications of a comprehensive genomic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Membrane-bound organelles are a defining feature of eukaryotic cells, and play a central role in most of their fundamental processes. The Rab G proteins are the single largest family of proteins that participate in the traffic between organelles, with 66 Rabs encoded in the human genome. Rabs direct the organelle-specific recruitment of vesicle tethering factors, motor proteins, and regulators of membrane traffic. Each organelle or vesicle class is typically associated with one or more Rab, with the Rabs present in a particular cell reflecting that cell's complement of organelles and trafficking routes. RESULTS: Through iterative use of hidden Markov models and tree building, we classified Rabs across the eukaryotic kingdom to provide the most comprehensive view of Rab evolution obtained to date. A strikingly large repertoire of at least 20 Rabs appears to have been present in the last eukaryotic common ancestor (LECA), consistent with the 'complexity early' view of eukaryotic evolution. We were able to place these Rabs into six supergroups, giving a deep view into eukaryotic prehistory. CONCLUSIONS: Tracing the fate of the LECA Rabs revealed extensive losses with many extant eukaryotes having fewer Rabs, and none having the full complement. We found that other Rabs have expanded and diversified, including a large expansion at the dawn of metazoans, which could be followed to provide an account of the evolutionary history of all human Rabs. Some Rab changes could be correlated with differences in cellular organization, and the relative lack of variation in other families of membrane-traffic proteins suggests that it is the changes in Rabs that primarily underlies the variation in organelles between species and cell types.

Principal components of functional connectivity: A new approach to study dynamic brain connectivity during rest.

Functional connectivity (FC) as measured by correlation between fMRI BOLD time courses of distinct brain regions has revealed meaningful organization of spontaneous fluctuations in the resting brain. However, an increasing amount of evidence points to non-stationarity of FC; i.e., FC dynamically changes over time reflecting additional and rich information about brain organization, but representing new challenges for analysis and interpretation. Here, we propose a data-driven approach based on principal component analysis (PCA) to reveal hidden patterns of coherent FC dynamics across multiple subjects. We demonstrate the feasibility and relevance of this new approach by examining the differences in dynamic FC between 13 healthy control subjects and 15 minimally disabled relapse-remitting multiple sclerosis patients. We estimated whole-brain dynamic FC of regionally-averaged BOLD activity using sliding time windows. We then used PCA to identify FC patterns, termed "eigenconnectivities", that reflect meaningful patterns in FC fluctuations. We then assessed the contributions of these patterns to the dynamic FC at any given time point and identified a network of connections centered on the default-mode network with altered contribution in patients. Our results complement traditional stationary analyses, and reveal novel insights into brain connectivity dynamics and their modulation in a neurodegenerative disease.

Decoding sequence learning from single-trial intracranial EEG in humans.

We propose and validate a multivariate classification algorithm for characterizing changes in human intracranial electroencephalographic data (iEEG) after learning motor sequences. The algorithm is based on a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) that captures spatio-temporal properties of the iEEG at the level of single trials. Continuous intracranial iEEG was acquired during two sessions (one before and one after a night of sleep) in two patients with depth electrodes implanted in several brain areas. They performed a visuomotor sequence (serial reaction time task, SRTT) using the fingers of their non-dominant hand. Our results show that the decoding algorithm correctly classified single iEEG trials from the trained sequence as belonging to either the initial training phase (day 1, before sleep) or a later consolidated phase (day 2, after sleep), whereas it failed to do so for trials belonging to a control condition (pseudo-random sequence). Accurate single-trial classification was achieved by taking advantage of the distributed pattern of neural activity. However, across all the contacts the hippocampus contributed most significantly to the classification accuracy for both patients, and one fronto-striatal contact for one patient. Together, these human intracranial findings demonstrate that a multivariate decoding approach can detect learning-related changes at the level of single-trial iEEG. Because it allows an unbiased identification of brain sites contributing to a behavioral effect (or experimental condition) at the level of single subject, this approach could be usefully applied to assess the neural correlates of other complex cognitive functions in patients implanted with multiple electrodes.

Design and evaluation of a panel os single-nucleotide polymorphisms in microRNA genomic regions for association studies in human disease

MicroRNAs (miRNA) are recognized posttranscriptional gene repressors involved in the control of almost every biological process. Allelic variants in these regions may be an important source of phenotypic diversity and contribute to disease susceptibility. We analyzed the genomic organization of 325 human miRNAs (release 7.1, miRBase) to construct a panel of 768 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) covering approximately 1 Mb of genomic DNA, including 131 isolated miRNAs (40%) and 194 miRNAs arranged in 48 miRNA clusters, as well as their 5-kb flanking regions. Of these miRNAs, 37% were inside known protein-coding genes, which were significantly associated with biological functions regarding neurological, psychological or nutritional disorders. SNP coverage analysis revealed a lower SNP density in miRNAs compared with the average of the genome, with only 24 SNPs located in the 325 miRNAs studied. Further genotyping of 340 unrelated Spanish individuals showed that more than half of the SNPs in miRNAs were either rare or monomorphic, in agreement with the reported selective constraint on human miRNAs. A comparison of the minor allele frequencies between Spanish and HapMap population samples confirmed the applicability of this SNP panel to the study of complex disorders among the Spanish population, and revealed two miRNA regions, hsa-mir-26a-2 in the CTDSP2 gene and hsa-mir-128-1 in the R3HDM1 gene, showing geographical allelic frequency variation among the four HapMap populations, probably because of differences in natural selection. The designed miRNA SNP panel could help to identify still hidden links between miRNAs and human disease.

Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly proposed to support conservation decision making. However, evidence of SDMs supporting solutions for on-ground conservation problems is still scarce in the scientific literature. Here, we show that successful examples exist but are still largely hidden in the grey literature, and thus less accessible for analysis and learning. Furthermore, the decision framework within which SDMs are used is rarely made explicit. Using case studies from biological invasions, identification of critical habitats, reserve selection and translocation of endangered species, we propose that SDMs may be tailored to suit a range of decision-making contexts when used within a structured and transparent decision-making process. To construct appropriate SDMs to more effectively guide conservation actions, modellers need to better understand the decision process, and decision makers need to provide feedback to modellers regarding the actual use of SDMs to support conservation decisions. This could be facilitated by individuals or institutions playing the role of 'translators' between modellers and decision makers. We encourage species distribution modellers to get involved in real decision-making processes that will benefit from their technical input; this strategy has the potential to better bridge theory and practice, and contribute to improve both scientific knowledge and conservation outcomes.

Core Analysis of Portland Cement Concrete Slip Formed Barriers, January 2000

Premature deterioration of slip formed portland cement concrete (PCC) barriers is an ongoing problem in the Iowa Primary and Interstate highway system. The requirement to have a concrete mix which can be sufficiently pliable to be readily molded into the barrier shape and yet be sufficiently stiff to maintain a true shape and height immediately after molding is difficult to meet. A concrete mix which is stiff enough to maintain its shape immediately after molding is usually difficult to work with. It often contains open or hidden tears and large voids. One way to minimize the molding resistance is by additional vibration. If intensive vibration is applied, the entrapped air voids and tears in the concrete can usually be eliminated, however, in that process, the essential entrained air content can also be lost. In the evaluation of slip formed PCC barriers, it is common to find large voids, tears and a low entrained air content, all contributing to premature deterioration. A study was initiated to evaluate core samples taken from good and from bad appearing areas of various median barriers. Evaluations were done covering visual appearance, construction information, air content and chloride content.

Goal recognition over POMDPs: inferring the intention of a POMDP agent

Plan recognition is the problem of inferring the goals and plans of an agent from partial observations of her behavior. Recently, it has been shown that the problem can be formulated and solved usingplanners, reducing plan recognition to plan generation.In this work, we extend this model-basedapproach to plan recognition to the POMDP setting, where actions are stochastic and states are partially observable. The task is to infer a probability distribution over the possible goals of an agent whose behavior results from a POMDP model. The POMDP model is shared between agent and observer except for the true goal of the agent that is hidden to the observer. The observations are action sequences O that may contain gaps as some or even most of the actions done by the agent may not be observed. We show that the posterior goal distribution P(GjO) can be computed from the value function VG(b) over beliefs b generated by the POMDPplanner for each possible goal G. Some extensionsof the basic framework are discussed, and a numberof experiments are reported.

The 411 on Disability Disclosure a Workbook for Youth with Diabillities, 2004

When you opened this workbook, you made an important decision! You made a decision to learn about disability disclosure and what it can mean for you. This workbook provides the expertise about disclosing a disability, and you provide the expertise about yourself. This workbook does not tell you what to do. Rather, it helps you make informed decisions about disclosing your disability, decisions that will affect your educational, employment, and social lives. In fact, making the personal decision to disclose your disability can lead to greater confidence in yourself and your choices. Disclosure is a very personal decision, a decision that takes thought and practice. Both young people with visible disabilities and those with hidden (not readily apparent to others) disabilities can benefit from using this workbook.

Organization of pre-Variscan basement areas at the north-Gondwanan margin

Pre-Variscan basement elements of Central Europe appear in polymetamorphic domains juxtaposed through Variscan and/or Alpine tectonic events. Consequently, nomenclatures and zonations applied to Variscan and Alpine structures, respectively, cannot be valid for pre-Variscan structures. Comparing pre-Variscan relics hidden in the Variscan basement areas of Central Europe, the Alps included, large parallels between the evolution of basement areas of future Avalonia and its former peri-Gondwanan eastern prolongations (e.g. Cadomia, Intra-Alpine Terrane) become evident. Their plate-tectonic evolution from the Late Proterozoic to the Late Ordovician is interpreted as a continuous Gondwana-directed evolution. Cadomian basement, late Cadomian granitoids, late Proterozoic detrital sediments and active margin settings characterize the pre-Cambrian evolution of most of the Gondwana-derived microcontinental pieces. Also the Rheic ocean, separating Avalonia from Gondwana, should have had, at its early stages, a lateral continuation in the former eastern prolongation of peri-Gondwanan microcontinents (e.g. Cadomia, Intra-Alpine Terrane). Subduction of oceanic ridge (Proto-Tethys) triggered the break-off of Avalonia, whereas in the eastern prolongation, the presence of the ridge may have triggered the amalgamation of volcanic arcs and continental ribbons with Gondwana (Ordovician orogenic event). Renewed Gondwana-directed subduction led to the opening of Palaeo-Tethys.

Stratification by smoking status reveals an association of CHRNA5-A3-B4 genotype with body mass index in never smokers.

We previously used a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the CHRNA5-A3-B4 gene cluster associated with heaviness of smoking within smokers to confirm the causal effect of smoking in reducing body mass index (BMI) in a Mendelian randomisation analysis. While seeking to extend these findings in a larger sample we found that this SNP is associated with 0.74% lower body mass index (BMI) per minor allele in current smokers (95% CI -0.97 to -0.51, P = 2.00 × 10(-10)), but also unexpectedly found that it was associated with 0.35% higher BMI in never smokers (95% CI +0.18 to +0.52, P = 6.38 × 10(-5)). An interaction test confirmed that these estimates differed from each other (P = 4.95 × 10(-13)). This difference in effects suggests the variant influences BMI both via pathways unrelated to smoking, and via the weight-reducing effects of smoking. It would therefore be essentially undetectable in an unstratified genome-wide association study of BMI, given the opposite association with BMI in never and current smokers. This demonstrates that novel associations may be obscured by hidden population sub-structure. Stratification on well-characterized environmental factors known to impact on health outcomes may therefore reveal novel genetic associations.

On the Properties and Cosmology of Q-balls

The properties and cosmological importance of a class of non-topological solitons, Q-balls, are studied. Aspects of Q-ball solutions and Q-ball cosmology discussed in the literature are reviewed. Q-balls are particularly considered in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model with supersymmetry broken by a hidden sector mechanism mediated by either gravity or gauge interactions. Q-ball profiles, charge-energy relations and evaporation rates for realistic Q-ball profiles are calculated for general polynomial potentials and for the gravity mediated scenario. In all of the cases, the evaporation rates are found to increase with decreasing charge. Q-ball collisions are studied by numerical means in the two supersymmetry breaking scenarios. It is noted that the collision processes can be divided into three types: fusion, charge transfer and elastic scattering. Cross-sections are calculated for the different types of processes in the different scenarios. The formation of Q-balls from the fragmentation of the Aflieck-Dine -condensate is studied by numerical and analytical means. The charge distribution is found to depend strongly on the initial energy-charge ratio of the condensate. The final state is typically noted to consist of Q- and anti-Q-balls in a state of maximum entropy. By studying the relaxation of excited Q-balls the rate at which excess energy can be emitted is calculated in the gravity mediated scenario. The Q-ball is also found to withstand excess energy well without significant charge loss. The possible cosmological consequences of these Q-ball properties are discussed.

Adverse selection, credit, and efficiency: the case of the missing market

We analyze a standard environment of adverse selection in credit markets. In our environment, entrepreneurs who are privately informed about the quality of their projects need to borrow in order to invest. Conventional wisdom says that, in this class of economies, the competitive equilibrium is typically inefficient. We show that this conventional wisdom rests on one implicit assumption: entrepreneurs can only access monitored lending. If a new set of markets is added to provide entrepreneurs with additional funds, efficiency can be attained in equilibrium. An important characteristic of these additional markets is that lending in them must be unmonitored, in the sense that it does not condition total borrowing or investment by entrepreneurs. This makes it possible to attain efficiency by pooling all entrepreneurs in the new markets while separating them in the markets for monitored loans.