Finit element model for active control of adaptive laminated structures

A finite element formulation for active vibration control of thin plate laminated structures with integrated piezoelectric layers, acting as sensors and actuators in presented. The finite element model is a nonconforming single layer triangular plate/shell element with 18 degrees of freedom for the generalized displacements and one electrical potential degree of freedom for each piezoelectric element layer, and is based on the kirchhoff classical laminated theory. To achieve a mechanism of active control of the structure dynamic response, a feedback control algorithm is used, coupling the sensor and active piezoelectric layers, and Newmark method is used to calculate yhe dynamic response of the laminated structures. The model is applied in the solution of several illustrative cases, and the results are presented and discussed.

Generate disaggregated soil allocation data using a Minimum Cross Entropy Model

Montado ecosystem in the Alentejo Region, south of Portugal, has enormous agro-ecological and economics heterogeneities. A definition of homogeneous sub-units among this heterogeneous ecosystem was made, but for them is disposal only partial statistical information about soil allocation agro-forestry activities. The paper proposal is to recover the unknown soil allocation at each homogeneous sub-unit, disaggregating a complete data set for the Montado ecosystem area using incomplete information at sub-units level. The methodological framework is based on a Generalized Maximum Entropy approach, which is developed in thee steps concerning the specification of a r order Markov process, the estimates of aggregate transition probabilities and the disaggregation data to recover the unknown soil allocation at each homogeneous sub-units. The results quality is evaluated using the predicted absolute deviation (PAD) and the "Disagegation Information Gain" (DIG) and shows very acceptable estimation errors.

Generalized Systematic Risk

We generalize the concept of .systematic risk to a broad class of risk measures potentially accounting for high distribution moments, downside risk, rare disasters, as well as other risk attributes. We offer two different approaches. First is an equilibrium framework generalizing the Capital Asset Pricing Model, two-fund separation, and the security market line. Second is an axiomatic approach resulting in a systematic risk measure as the unique solution to a risk allocation problem. Both approaches lead to similar results extending the traditional beta to capture multiple dimensions of risk. The results lend themselves naturally to empirical investigation.

Generative Divergent Analysis as a Model for Reflection Illustrated with Reference to an Early-years Reception Class and Wicker Settee

Generative divergent analysis (GDA) is a creative additive approach to raising insignificant details of experience to significance. A schematic view of the model highlights use of evocative objects as starting point for ‘turning towards’, ‘turning away’ and ‘being-in-relation-to’ as part of an ongoing burgeoning of experience.The model is exemplified by focusing on a wicker settee as an evocative object that was noticed in an early-years reception class. Revisiting the object generated several speculative ideas relating to the hidden curriculum and energies of childhood. Poetry and song were used during the revisiting in order to develop a more direct experience in addition to the more contemplative awareness that was evoked during the first encounters. As an additive process the outcome of GDA takes the form of unfinished resources for thinking.

Predicting trabecular bone microdamage initiation and accumulation using a non-linear perfect damage model

Studies evaluating the mechanical behavior of the trabecular microstructure play an important role in our understanding of pathologies such as osteoporosis, and in increasing our understanding of bone fracture and bone adaptation. Understanding of such behavior in bone is important for predicting and providing early treatment of fractures. The objective of this study is to present a numerical model for studying the initiation and accumulation of trabecular bone microdamage in both the pre- and post-yield regions. A sub-region of human vertebral trabecular bone was analyzed using a uniformly loaded anatomically accurate microstructural three-dimensional finite element model. The evolution of trabecular bone microdamage was governed using a non-linear, modulus reduction, perfect damage approach derived from a generalized plasticity stress-strain law. The model introduced in this paper establishes a history of microdamage evolution in both the pre- and post-yield regions

The Seemingly Unrelated Dynamic Cointegration Regression Model and Testing for Purching Power Parity.

This paper studies seemingly unrelated linear models with integrated regressors and stationary errors. By adding leads and lags of the first differences of the regressors and estimating this augmented dynamic regression model by feasible generalized least squares using the long-run covariance matrix, we obtain an efficient estimator of the cointegrating vector that has a limiting mixed normal distribution. Simulation results suggest that this new estimator compares favorably with others already proposed in the literature. We apply these new estimators to the testing of purchasing power parity (PPP) among the G-7 countries. The test based on the efficient estimates rejects the PPP hypothesis for most countries.

Empirical Assessment of an Intertemporal Option Pricing Model with Latent variables

This paper assesses the empirical performance of an intertemporal option pricing model with latent variables which generalizes the Hull-White stochastic volatility formula. Using this generalized formula in an ad-hoc fashion to extract two implicit parameters and forecast next day S&P 500 option prices, we obtain similar pricing errors than with implied volatility alone as in the Hull-White case. When we specialize this model to an equilibrium recursive utility model, we show through simulations that option prices are more informative than stock prices about the structural parameters of the model. We also show that a simple method of moments with a panel of option prices provides good estimates of the parameters of the model. This lays the ground for an empirical assessment of this equilibrium model with S&P 500 option prices in terms of pricing errors.

Some Applications of Markov Additive Processes as Models in Insurance and Financial Mathematics

Cette thèse est principalement constituée de trois articles traitant des processus markoviens additifs, des processus de Lévy et d'applications en finance et en assurance. Le premier chapitre est une introduction aux processus markoviens additifs (PMA), et une présentation du problème de ruine et de notions fondamentales des mathématiques financières. Le deuxième chapitre est essentiellement l'article "Lévy Systems and the Time Value of Ruin for Markov Additive Processes" écrit en collaboration avec Manuel Morales et publié dans la revue European Actuarial Journal. Cet article étudie le problème de ruine pour un processus de risque markovien additif. Une identification de systèmes de Lévy est obtenue et utilisée pour donner une expression de l'espérance de la fonction de pénalité actualisée lorsque le PMA est un processus de Lévy avec changement de régimes. Celle-ci est une généralisation des résultats existant dans la littérature pour les processus de risque de Lévy et les processus de risque markoviens additifs avec sauts "phase-type". Le troisième chapitre contient l'article "On a Generalization of the Expected Discounted Penalty Function to Include Deficits at and Beyond Ruin" qui est soumis pour publication. Cet article présente une extension de l'espérance de la fonction de pénalité actualisée pour un processus subordinateur de risque perturbé par un mouvement brownien. Cette extension contient une série de fonctions escomptée éspérée des minima successives dus aux sauts du processus de risque après la ruine. Celle-ci a des applications importantes en gestion de risque et est utilisée pour déterminer la valeur espérée du capital d'injection actualisé. Finallement, le quatrième chapitre contient l'article "The Minimal entropy martingale measure (MEMM) for a Markov-modulated exponential Lévy model" écrit en collaboration avec Romuald Hervé Momeya et publié dans la revue Asia-Pacific Financial Market. Cet article présente de nouveaux résultats en lien avec le problème de l'incomplétude dans un marché financier où le processus de prix de l'actif risqué est décrit par un modèle exponentiel markovien additif. Ces résultats consistent à charactériser la mesure martingale satisfaisant le critère de l'entropie. Cette mesure est utilisée pour calculer le prix d'une option, ainsi que des portefeuilles de couverture dans un modèle exponentiel de Lévy avec changement de régimes.

The hotelling model with multiple demands

The purpose of this chapter is to provide an elementary introduction to the non-renewable resource model with multiple demand curves. The theoretical literature following Hotelling (1931) assumed that all energy needs are satisfied by one type of resource (e.g. ‘oil’), extractible at different per-unit costs. This formulation implicitly assumes that all users are the same distance from each resource pool, that all users are subject to the same regulations, and that motorist users can switch as easily from liquid fossil fuels to coal as electric utilities can. These assumptions imply, as Herfindahl (1967) showed, that in competitive equilibrium all users will exhaust a lower cost resource completely before beginning to extract a higher cost resource: simultaneous extraction of different grades of oil or of oil and coal should never occur. In trying to apply the single-demand curve model during the last twenty years, several teams of authors have independently found a need to generalize it to account for users differing in their (1) location, (2) regulatory environment, or (3) resource needs. Each research team found that Herfindahl's strong, unrealistic conclusion disappears in the generalized model; in its place, a weaker Herfindahl result emerges. Since each research team focussed on a different application, however, it has not always been clear that everyone has been describing the same generalized model. Our goal is to integrate the findings of these teams and to exposit the generalized model in a form which is easily accessible.

Modelling and Analysis of Recurrent Event Data with Multiple Causes

This thesis Entitled “modelling and analysis of recurrent event data with multiple causes.Survival data is a term used for describing data that measures the time to occurrence of an event.In survival studies, the time to occurrence of an event is generally referred to as lifetime.Recurrent event data are commonly encountered in longitudinal studies when individuals are followed to observe the repeated occurrences of certain events. In many practical situations, individuals under study are exposed to the failure due to more than one causes and the eventual failure can be attributed to exactly one of these causes.The proposed model was useful in real life situations to study the effect of covariates on recurrences of certain events due to different causes.In Chapter 3, an additive hazards model for gap time distributions of recurrent event data with multiple causes was introduced. The parameter estimation and asymptotic properties were discussed .In Chapter 4, a shared frailty model for the analysis of bivariate competing risks data was presented and the estimation procedures for shared gamma frailty model, without covariates and with covariates, using EM algorithm were discussed. In Chapter 6, two nonparametric estimators for bivariate survivor function of paired recurrent event data were developed. The asymptotic properties of the estimators were studied. The proposed estimators were applied to a real life data set. Simulation studies were carried out to find the efficiency of the proposed estimators.

Development and applications of density matrix functional theory of generalized Hubbard Models

In dieser Doktorarbeit wird eine akkurate Methode zur Bestimmung von Grundzustandseigenschaften stark korrelierter Elektronen im Rahmen von Gittermodellen entwickelt und angewandt. In der Dichtematrix-Funktional-Theorie (LDFT, vom englischen lattice density functional theory) ist die Ein-Teilchen-Dichtematrix γ die fundamentale Variable. Auf der Basis eines verallgemeinerten Hohenberg-Kohn-Theorems ergibt sich die Grundzustandsenergie Egs[γgs] = min° E[γ] durch die Minimierung des Energiefunktionals E[γ] bezüglich aller physikalischer bzw. repräsentativer γ. Das Energiefunktional kann in zwei Beiträge aufgeteilt werden: Das Funktional der kinetischen Energie T[γ], dessen lineare Abhängigkeit von γ genau bekannt ist, und das Funktional der Korrelationsenergie W[γ], dessen Abhängigkeit von γ nicht explizit bekannt ist. Das Auffinden präziser Näherungen für W[γ] stellt die tatsächliche Herausforderung dieser These dar. Einem Teil dieser Arbeit liegen vorausgegangene Studien zu Grunde, in denen eine Näherung des Funktionals W[γ] für das Hubbardmodell, basierend auf Skalierungshypothesen und exakten analytischen Ergebnissen für das Dimer, hergeleitet wird. Jedoch ist dieser Ansatz begrenzt auf spin-unabhängige und homogene Systeme. Um den Anwendungsbereich von LDFT zu erweitern, entwickeln wir drei verschiedene Ansätze zur Herleitung von W[γ], die das Studium von Systemen mit gebrochener Symmetrie ermöglichen. Zuerst wird das bisherige Skalierungsfunktional erweitert auf Systeme mit Ladungstransfer. Eine systematische Untersuchung der Abhängigkeit des Funktionals W[γ] von der Ladungsverteilung ergibt ähnliche Skalierungseigenschaften wie für den homogenen Fall. Daraufhin wird eine Erweiterung auf das Hubbardmodell auf bipartiten Gittern hergeleitet und an sowohl endlichen als auch unendlichen Systemen mit repulsiver und attraktiver Wechselwirkung angewandt. Die hohe Genauigkeit dieses Funktionals wird aufgezeigt. Es erweist sich jedoch als schwierig, diesen Ansatz auf komplexere Systeme zu übertragen, da bei der Berechnung von W[γ] das System als ganzes betrachtet wird. Um dieses Problem zu bewältigen, leiten wir eine weitere Näherung basierend auf lokalen Skalierungseigenschaften her. Dieses Funktional ist lokal bezüglich der Gitterplätze formuliert und ist daher anwendbar auf jede Art von geordneten oder ungeordneten Hamiltonoperatoren mit lokalen Wechselwirkungen. Als Anwendungen untersuchen wir den Metall-Isolator-Übergang sowohl im ionischen Hubbardmodell in einer und zwei Dimensionen als auch in eindimensionalen Hubbardketten mit nächsten und übernächsten Nachbarn. Schließlich entwickeln wir ein numerisches Verfahren zur Berechnung von W[γ], basierend auf exakten Diagonalisierungen eines effektiven Vielteilchen-Hamilton-Operators, welcher einen von einem effektiven Medium umgebenen Cluster beschreibt. Dieser effektive Hamiltonoperator hängt von der Dichtematrix γ ab und erlaubt die Herleitung von Näherungen an W[γ], dessen Qualität sich systematisch mit steigender Clustergröße verbessert. Die Formulierung ist spinabhängig und ermöglicht eine direkte Verallgemeinerung auf korrelierte Systeme mit mehreren Orbitalen, wie zum Beispiel auf den spd-Hamilton-Operator. Darüber hinaus berücksichtigt sie die Effekte kurzreichweitiger Ladungs- und Spinfluktuationen in dem Funktional. Für das Hubbardmodell wird die Genauigkeit der Methode durch Vergleich mit Bethe-Ansatz-Resultaten (1D) und Quanten-Monte-Carlo-Simulationen (2D) veranschaulicht. Zum Abschluss wird ein Ausblick auf relevante zukünftige Entwicklungen dieser Theorie gegeben.

Virtual Model Control of a Biped Walking Robot

The transformation from high level task specification to low level motion control is a fundamental issue in sensorimotor control in animals and robots. This thesis develops a control scheme called virtual model control which addresses this issue. Virtual model control is a motion control language which uses simulations of imagined mechanical components to create forces, which are applied through joint torques, thereby creating the illusion that the components are connected to the robot. Due to the intuitive nature of this technique, designing a virtual model controller requires the same skills as designing the mechanism itself. A high level control system can be cascaded with the low level virtual model controller to modulate the parameters of the virtual mechanisms. Discrete commands from the high level controller would then result in fluid motion. An extension of Gardner's Partitioned Actuator Set Control method is developed. This method allows for the specification of constraints on the generalized forces which each serial path of a parallel mechanism can apply. Virtual model control has been applied to a bipedal walking robot. A simple algorithm utilizing a simple set of virtual components has successfully compelled the robot to walk eight consecutive steps.

On the Noise Model of Support Vector Machine Regression

Support Vector Machines Regression (SVMR) is a regression technique which has been recently introduced by V. Vapnik and his collaborators (Vapnik, 1995; Vapnik, Golowich and Smola, 1996). In SVMR the goodness of fit is measured not by the usual quadratic loss function (the mean square error), but by a different loss function called Vapnik"s $epsilon$- insensitive loss function, which is similar to the "robust" loss functions introduced by Huber (Huber, 1981). The quadratic loss function is well justified under the assumption of Gaussian additive noise. However, the noise model underlying the choice of Vapnik's loss function is less clear. In this paper the use of Vapnik's loss function is shown to be equivalent to a model of additive and Gaussian noise, where the variance and mean of the Gaussian are random variables. The probability distributions for the variance and mean will be stated explicitly. While this work is presented in the framework of SVMR, it can be extended to justify non-quadratic loss functions in any Maximum Likelihood or Maximum A Posteriori approach. It applies not only to Vapnik's loss function, but to a much broader class of loss functions.

Estimation of electronic coupling in π -stacked donor-bridge-acceptor systems: correction of the two-state model

Comparison of donor-acceptor electronic couplings calculated within two-state and three-state models suggests that the two-state treatment can provide unreliable estimates of Vda because of neglecting the multistate effects. We show that in most cases accurate values of the electronic coupling in a π stack, where donor and acceptor are separated by a bridging unit, can be obtained as Ṽ da = (E2 - E1) μ12 Rda + (2 E3 - E1 - E2) 2 μ13 μ23 Rda2, where E1, E2, and E3 are adiabatic energies of the ground, charge-transfer, and bridge states, respectively, μij is the transition dipole moments between the states i and j, and Rda is the distance between the planes of donor and acceptor. In this expression based on the generalized Mulliken-Hush approach, the first term corresponds to the coupling derived within a two-state model, whereas the second term is the superexchange correction accounting for the bridge effect. The formula is extended to bridges consisting of several subunits. The influence of the donor-acceptor energy mismatch on the excess charge distribution, adiabatic dipole and transition moments, and electronic couplings is examined. A diagnostic is developed to determine whether the two-state approach can be applied. Based on numerical results, we showed that the superexchange correction considerably improves estimates of the donor-acceptor coupling derived within a two-state approach. In most cases when the two-state scheme fails, the formula gives reliable results which are in good agreement (within 5%) with the data of the three-state generalized Mulliken-Hush model

Parameter sensitivity and predictive uncertainty in a new water quality model, Q(2)

A new dynamic model of water quality, Q(2), has recently been developed, capable of simulating large branched river systems. This paper describes the application of a generalized sensitivity analysis (GSA) to Q(2) for single reaches of the River Thames in southern England. Focusing on the simulation of dissolved oxygen (DO) (since this may be regarded as a proxy for the overall health of a river); the GSA is used to identify key parameters controlling model behavior and provide a probabilistic procedure for model calibration. It is shown that, in the River Thames at least, it is more important to obtain high quality forcing functions than to obtain improved parameter estimates once approximate values have been estimated. Furthermore, there is a need to ensure reasonable simulation of a range of water quality determinands, since a focus only on DO increases predictive uncertainty in the DO simulations. The Q(2) model has been applied here to the River Thames, but it has a broad utility for evaluating other systems in Europe and around the world.