A comparison of plotless density estimators using Monte Carlo simulation on totally enumerated field data sets

Background: Plotless density estimators are those that are based on distance measures rather than counts per unit area (quadrats or plots) to estimate the density of some usually stationary event, e.g. burrow openings, damage to plant stems, etc. These estimators typically use distance measures between events and from random points to events to derive an estimate of density. The error and bias of these estimators for the various spatial patterns found in nature have been examined using simulated populations only. In this study we investigated eight plotless density estimators to determine which were robust across a wide range of data sets from fully mapped field sites. They covered a wide range of situations including animal damage to rice and corn, nest locations, active rodent burrows and distribution of plants. Monte Carlo simulations were applied to sample the data sets, and in all cases the error of the estimate (measured as relative root mean square error) was reduced with increasing sample size. The method of calculation and ease of use in the field were also used to judge the usefulness of the estimator. Estimators were evaluated in their original published forms, although the variable area transect (VAT) and ordered distance methods have been the subjects of optimization studies. Results: An estimator that was a compound of three basic distance estimators was found to be robust across all spatial patterns for sample sizes of 25 or greater. The same field methodology can be used either with the basic distance formula or the formula used with the Kendall-Moran estimator in which case a reduction in error may be gained for sample sizes less than 25, however, there is no improvement for larger sample sizes. The variable area transect (VAT) method performed moderately well, is easy to use in the field, and its calculations easy to undertake. Conclusion: Plotless density estimators can provide an estimate of density in situations where it would not be practical to layout a plot or quadrat and can in many cases reduce the workload in the field.

Development and Simulation of a Variable Rate Controller for an Air search and Air Sampling Unmanned Aerial System

This report describes the development and simulation of a variable rate controller for a 6-degree of freedom nonlinear model. The variable rate simulation model represents an off the shelf autopilot. Flight experiment involves risks and can be expensive. Therefore a dynamic model to understand the performance characteristics of the UAS in mission simulation before actual flight test or to obtain parameters needed for the flight is important. The control and guidance is implemented in Simulink. The report tests the use of the model for air search and air sampling path planning. A GUI in which a set of mission scenarios, in which two experts (mission expert, i.e. air sampling or air search and an UAV expert) interact, is presented showing the benefits of the method.

Testing the simulation capability of APSIM-ORYZA under different levels of nitrogen fertiliser and transplanting time regimes in Korea

APSIM-ORYZA is a new functionality developed in the APSIM framework to simulate rice production while addressing management issues such as fertilisation and transplanting, which are particularly important in Korean agriculture. To validate the model for Korean rice varieties and field conditions, the measured yields and flowering times from three field experiments conducted by the Gyeonggi Agricultural Research and Extension Services (GARES) in Korea were compared against the simulated outputs for different management practices and rice varieties. Simulated yields of early-, mid- and mid-to-late-maturing varieties of rice grown in a continuous rice cropping system from 1997 to 2004 showed close agreement with the measured data. Similar results were also found for yields simulated under seven levels of nitrogen application. When different transplanting times were modelled, simulated flowering times ranged from within 3 days of the measured values for the early-maturing varieties, to up to 9 days after the measured dates for the mid- and especially mid-to-late-maturing varieties. This was associated with highly variable simulated yields which correlated poorly with the measured data. This suggests the need to accurately calibrate the photoperiod sensitivity parameters of the model for the photoperiod-sensitive rice varieties in Korea.

Long-term trends in fertility of soils under continuous cultivation and cereal cropping in southern Queensland. IX. Simulation of soil carbon and nitrogen pools using CENTURY model

Cultivation and cropping of soils results in a decline in soil organic carbon and soil nitrogen, and can lead to reduced crop yields. The CENTURY model was used to simulate the effects of continuous cultivation and cereal cropping on total soil organic matter (C and N), carbon pools, nitrogen mineralisation, and crop yield from 6 locations in southern Queensland. The model was calibrated for each replicate from the original datasets, allowing comparisons for each replicate rather than site averages. The CENTURY model was able to satisfactorily predict the impact of long-term cultivation and cereal cropping on total organic carbon, but was less successful in simulating the different fractions and nitrogen mineralisation. The model firstly over-predicted the initial (pre-cropping) soil carbon and nitrogen concentration of the sites. To account for the unique shrinking and swelling characteristics of the Vertosol soils, the default annual decomposition rates of the slow and passive carbon pools were doubled, and then the model accurately predicted initial conditions. The ability of the model to predict carbon pool fractions varied, demonstrating the difficulty inherent in predicting the size of these conceptual pools. The strength of the model lies in the ability to closely predict the starting soil organic matter conditions, and the ability to predict the impact of clearing, cultivation, fertiliser application, and continuous cropping on total soil carbon and nitrogen.

Film cooling at hypersonic Mach numbers using forward facing array of micro-jets

Experimental investigations are carried out in the IISc hypersonic shock tunnel on film cooling effectiveness of a single jet (diameter 2 mm and 0.9 mm), and an array forward facing of micro-jets (diameter 300 mu m each) of same effective area (corresponding to the respective single jet). The single jet and the corresponding micro-jets are injected from the stagnation zone of a blunt cone model (58, apex angle and nose radius of 35 mm). Nitrogen and Helium are injected as coolant gases. Experiments are performed at freestream Mach number 5.9, at 0 degrees angle of attack, with a stagnation enthalpy of 1.84 MJ/kg, with and without injections. The ratios of the jet stagnation pressure to the freestream pitot pressure used in the present study are 1.2 and 1.45. Up to 50% reduction in surface heat transfer rate was observed with the array of micro-jets, compared to that of the respective single jet with nitrogen as the coolant, while the corresponding eduction was up to 37% for helium injection, with the schlieren flow visualizations showing no major change in the shock standoff distance, and thus no major changes in other aerodynamic aspects such as drag.

Design and Simulation of a Solar Powered UAV for Remote Sensing Tasks Technical Report

This research deals with the development of a Solar-Powered UAV designed for remote sensing, in particular to the development of the autopilot sub-system and path planning. The design of the Solar-Powered UAS followed a systems engineering methodology, by first defining system architecture, and selecting each subsystem. Validation tests and integration of autopilot is performed, in order to evaluate the performances of each subsystem and to obtain a global operational system for data collection missions. The flight tests planning and simulation results are also explored in order to verify the mission capabilities using an autopilot on a UAS. The important aspect of this research is to develop a Solar-Powered UAS for the purpose of data collection and video monitoring, especially data and images from the ground; transmit to the GS (Ground Station), segment the collected data, and afterwards analyze it with a Matlab code.

Multi-Disciplinary Design and Simulation of a Fuel Cell Engine for a UAV

This report describes a methodology for the design and coupling of a proton exchange membrane (PEM) Fuel Cell to an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). The report summarizes existing work in the field, the type of UAV and the mission requirements, design the fuel cell system, simulation environment, and compares endurance and range to when the aircraft is fitted with a conventional internal combustion engine (ICE).

Traffic safety at road–rail level crossings using a driving simulator and traffic simulation

Several intelligent transportation systems (ITS) were used with an advanced driving simulator to assess its influence on driving behavior. Three types of ITS interventions were tested: video in vehicle, audio in vehicle, and on-road flashing marker. The results from the driving simulator were inputs for a developed model that used traffic microsimulation (VISSIM 5.4) to assess the safety interventions. Using a driving simulator, 58 participants were required to drive through active and passive crossings with and without an ITS device and in the presence or absence of an approaching train. The effect of changes in driver speed and compliance rate was greater at passive crossings than at active crossings. The slight difference in speed of drivers approaching ITS devices indicated that ITS helped drivers encounter crossings in a safer way. Since the traffic simulation was not able to replicate a dynamic speed change or a probability of stopping that varied depending on ITS safety devices, some modifications were made to the traffic simulation. The results showed that exposure to ITS devices at active crossings did not influence drivers’ behavior significantly according to the traffic performance indicator, such as delay time, number of stops, speed, and stopped delay. However, the results of traffic simulation for passive crossings, where low traffic volumes and low train headway normally occur, showed that ITS devices improved overall traffic performance.

A simulation study of the mixing, atomic flow and velocity profiles of crystalline materials during sliding

Self-contained Non-Equilibrium Molecular Dynamics (NEMD) simulations using Lennard-Jones potentials were performed to identify the origin and mechanisms of atomic scale interfacial behavior between sliding metals. The mixing sequence and velocity profiles were compared via MD simulations for three cases, viz.: sell-mated, similar and hard-softvcrystal pairs. The results showed shear instability, atomic scale mixing, and generation of eddies at the sliding interface. Vorticity at the interface suggests that atomic flow during sliding is similar to fluid flow under Kelvin-Helmholtz instability and this is supported by velocity profiles from the simulations. The initial step-function velocity profile spreads during sliding. However the velocity profile does not change much at later stages of the simulation and it eventually stops spreading. The steady state friction coefficient during simulation was monitored as a function of sliding velocity. Frictional behavior can be explained on the basis of plastic deformation and adiabatic effects. The mixing layer growth kinetics was also investigated.

How Good is the Assumption About Visible Surface Reflectance in MODIS Aerosol Retrieval Over Land? A Comparison With Aircraft Measurements Over an Urban Site in India

In this paper, we discuss the measurements of spectral surface reflectance (rho(s)(lambda)) in the wavelength range 350-2500 nm measured using a spectroradiometer onboard a low-flying aircraft over Bangalore (12.95 degrees N, 77.65 degrees E), an urban site in southern India. The large discrepancies in the retrieval of aerosol propertiesover land by the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), which could be attributed to the inaccurate estimation of surface reflectance at many sites in India and elsewhere, provided motivation for this paper. The aim of this paper was to verify the surface reflectance relationships assumed by the MODIS aerosol algorithm for the estimation of surface reflectance in the visible channels (470 and 660 nm) from the surface reflectance at 2100 nm for aerosol retrieval over land. The variety of surfaces observed in this paper includes green and dry vegetations, bare land, and urban surfaces. The measuredreflectance data were first corrected for the radiative effects of atmosphere lying between the ground and aircraft using the Second Simulation of Satellite Signal in the Solar Spectrum (6S) radiative transfer code. The corrected surface reflectance in the MODIS's blue (rho(s)(470)), red (rho(s)(660)), and shortwave-infrared (SWIR) channel (rho(s)(2100)) was linearly correlated. We found that the slope of reflectance relationship between 660 and 2100 nm derived from the forward scattering data was 0.53 with an intercept of 0.07, whereas the slope for the relationship between the reflectance at 470 and 660 nm was 0.85. These values are much higher than the slope (similar to 0.49) for either wavelengths assumed by the MODIS aerosol algorithm over this region. The reflectance relationship for the backward scattering data has a slope of 0.39, with an intercept of 0.08 for 660 nm, and 0.65, with an intercept of 0.08 for 470 nm. The large values of the intercept (which is very small in the MODIS reflectance relationships) result in larger values of absolute surface reflectance in the visible channels. The discrepancy between the measured and assumed surface reflectances could lead to error in the aerosol retrieval. The reflectance ratio (rho(s)(660)/rho(s)(2100)) showed a clear dependence on the N D V I-SWIR where the ratio increased from 0.5 to 1 with an increase in N V I-SWIR from 0 to 0.5. The high correlation between the reflectance at SWIR wavelengths (2100, 1640, and 1240 nm) indicated an opportunity to derive the surface reflectance and, possibly, aerosol properties at these wavelengths. We need more experiments to characterize the surface reflectance and associated inhomogeneity of land surfaces, which play a critical role in the remote sensing of aerosols over land.

Applying a simulation model to the management of an infestation of Miconia calvescens in the wet tropics of Australia

A simulation model that combines biological, search and economic components is applied to the eradication of a Miconia calvescens infestation at El Arish in tropical Queensland, Australia. Information on the year M. calvescens was introduced to the site, the number of plants controlled and the timing of control, is used to show that currently there could be M. calvescens plants remaining undetected at the site, including some mature plants. Modelling results indicate that the eradication programme has had a significant impact on the population of M. calvescens, as shown by simulated results for uncontrolled and controlled populations. The model was also used to investigate the effect of changing search effort on the cost of and time to eradication. Control costs were found to be negligible over all levels of search effort tested. Importantly, results suggest eradication may be achieved within several decades, if resources are increased slightly from their current levels and if there is a long-term commitment to funding the eradication programme.

Modeling dynamic demand response using Monte Carlo simulation and interval mathematics for boundary estimation

With the rapid development of various technologies and applications in smart grid implementation, demand response has attracted growing research interests because of its potentials in enhancing power grid reliability with reduced system operation costs. This paper presents a new demand response model with elastic economic dispatch in a locational marginal pricing market. It models system economic dispatch as a feedback control process, and introduces a flexible and adjustable load cost as a controlled signal to adjust demand response. Compared with the conventional “one time use” static load dispatch model, this dynamic feedback demand response model may adjust the load to a desired level in a finite number of time steps and a proof of convergence is provided. In addition, Monte Carlo simulation and boundary calculation using interval mathematics are applied for describing uncertainty of end-user's response to an independent system operator's expected dispatch. A numerical analysis based on the modified Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland power pool five-bus system is introduced for simulation and the results verify the effectiveness of the proposed model. System operators may use the proposed model to obtain insights in demand response processes for their decision-making regarding system load levels and operation conditions.

An investigation of solid adamantane by a modified isothermal-isobaric ensemble Monte Carlo simulation

Isothermal-isobaric ensemble Monte Carlo simulation studies of adamantane have been carried out at different temperatures. Thermodynamic properties and radial distribution functions calculated by employing a simple potential model based on sitesite interactions show good agreement with experiment and suggest that the solid is orientationally disordered at high temperatures.

Statistically steady turbulence in thin films: direct numerical simulations with Ekman friction

We present a detailed direct numerical simulation (DNS) of the two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equation with the incompressibility constraint and air-drag-induced Ekman friction; our DNS has been designed to investigate the combined effects of walls and such a friction on turbulence in forced thin films. We concentrate on the forward-cascade regime and show how to extract the isotropic parts of velocity and vorticity structure functions and hence the ratios of multiscaling exponents. We find that velocity structure functions display simple scaling, whereas their vorticity counterparts show multiscaling, and the probability distribution function of the Weiss parameter 3, which distinguishes between regions with centers and saddles, is in quantitative agreement with experiments.

Finite volume TVD formulation of lattice Boltzmann simulation on unstructured mesh

A numerical scheme is presented for accurate simulation of fluid flow using the lattice Boltzmann equation (LBE) on unstructured mesh. A finite volume approach is adopted to discretize the LBE on a cell-centered, arbitrary shaped, triangular tessellation. The formulation includes a formal, second order discretization using a Total Variation Diminishing (TVD) scheme for the terms representing advection of the distribution function in physical space, due to microscopic particle motion. The advantage of the LBE approach is exploited by implementing the scheme in a new computer code to run on a parallel computing system. Performance of the new formulation is systematically investigated by simulating four benchmark flows of increasing complexity, namely (1) flow in a plane channel, (2) unsteady Couette flow, (3) flow caused by a moving lid over a 2D square cavity and (4) flow over a circular cylinder. For each of these flows, the present scheme is validated with the results from Navier-Stokes computations as well as lattice Boltzmann simulations on regular mesh. It is shown that the scheme is robust and accurate for the different test problems studied.