Uso de métodos ensemble para la predicción de la radiación solar

[EN]Se propone un modelo de radiación solar adaptativo como una nueva herramienta para la generación de mapas de radiación solar. Este introduce mejoras a los modelos existentes como la adaptación de la malla a la orografía y al albedo. Esta estrategia adaptativa nos permite generar un código eficiente que reduce el coste computacional para una precisión dada. La radiación global es obtenida como suma de sus tres componentes, la directa, la difusa y la reflejada, sobre una región de estudio bajo condiciones de cielo limpio. En este sentido, las superficies inclinadas tendrán un tratamiento diferente de las horizontales y se tendrá en cuenta el efecto de las zonas en sombra…

Desarrollo de un método ensemble para la predicción del viento a escala local usando elementos finitos

[EN]Los autores han desarrollado un modelo de viento de masa consistente especialmente diseñado para su aplicación en la escala local y en zonas de orografía compleja. Se ha dotado a este modelo de carácter predictivo usando como entrada resultados de HARMONIE. El HARMONIE es un modelo meteorológico predictivo de escala regional usado en la AEMET. Por otra parte, en los últimos años los métodos ensemble se han consolidado en la predicción meteorológica a escala regional…

Ensemble wind forecasting based on the HARMONIE model and adaptive finite elements in complex orography

[EN]Ensemble forecasting is a methodology to deal with uncertainties in the numerical wind prediction. In this work we propose to apply ensemble methods to the adaptive wind forecasting model presented in. The wind field forecasting is based on a mass-consistent model and a log-linear wind profile using as input data the resulting forecast wind from Harmonie, a Non-Hydrostatic Dynamic model used experimentally at AEMET with promising results. The mass-consistent model parameters are estimated by using genetic algorithms. The mesh is generated using the meccano method and adapted to the geometry…

Einstellungen zur Demokratie in Kambodscha : Niveau und Determinanten der Demokratieunterstützung

Die vorliegende Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Frage, wie stark die Unterstützung eines demokratischen politischen Systems in der kambodschanischen Bevölkerung ist und welche Faktoren auf der Mikroebene die Demokratieunterstützung in Kambodscha beeinflussen. Hierfür werden das Unterstützungsmodell von Dieter Fuchs und die Modernisierungstheorie von Seymour Lipset für die Analyse von Einstellungen in einem autoritären politischen System modifiziert und entsprechend angepasste Hypothesen [zum Einfluss der Modernisierungsfaktoren auf die Demokratieunterstützung] formuliert. Nachdem die im Datensatz vorhandenen Einzelindikatoren zu Faktoren verdichtet und Probleme des Demokratieverständnisses und der Item-Nonresponse diskutiert wurden, werden Daten der zweiten Welle der Asian Barometer Survey 2008 analysiert. Die empirischen Ergebnisse zeigen zwar, dass eine substantielle Minderheit das autoritäre Regime des Landes und seine Entscheidungsträger kritisch betrachtet, die Bindung an liberal-demokratische Werte aber eher schwach ausgeprägt ist. Bi- und multivariate Analysen deuten auf einen Einfluss von Faktoren wie Bildung, Einkommen und Wohnort hin und bestätigen somit weitgehend die Modernisierungstheorie, allerdings mit einer bedeutsamen Abweichung: Größere Zufriedenheit mit der eigenen wirtschaftlichen Lage führt zwar zu einer stärkeren Bindung an demokratische Werte, gleichzeitig aber auch zu einer größeren Unterstützung des autoritären Regimes und seiner Entscheidungsträger.

La grammaire et les interférences linguistiques dans l'apprentissage du français langue étrangère : le cas des apprenants italophones et sinophones de niveau B1.

Ce mémoire propose d’étudier le phénomène des interférences linguistiques qui se vérifient lors de l’apprentissage du français langue étrangère (FLE). Après avoir apporté quelques notions historico-théoriques de la grammaire et de la didactique, nous nous pencherons sur la question des interférences linguistiques à travers une étude de cas spécifique portant sur des apprenants italophones et sinophones de niveau B1 selon le Cadre Européen Commun de Référence pour les langues. Il s’agit de réfléchir, à travers cette analyse, au rôle de la grammaire dans un contexte d’enseignement/apprentissage de la langue française où l’origine de l’apprenant influence l’approche à la langue étrangère et est source d’interférences linguistiques. En dernier lieu, nous tirerons les conclusions de l’analyse sur le plan didactique.

Classification of suppressor additives based on synergistic and antagonistic ensemble effects

Three fundamental types of suppressor additives for copper electroplating could be identified by means of potential Transient measurements. These suppressor additives differ in their synergistic and antagonistic interplay with anions that are chemisorbed on the metallic copper surface during electrodeposition. In addition these suppressor chemistries reveal different barrier properties with respect to cupric ions and plating additives (Cl, SPS). While the type-I suppressor selectively forms efficient barriers for copper inter-diffusion on chloride-terminated electrode surfaces we identified a type-II suppressor that interacts non-selectively with any kind of anions chemisorbed on copper (chloride, sulfate, sulfonate). Type-I suppressors are vital for the superconformal copper growth mode in Damascene processing and show an antagonistic interaction with SPS (Bis-Sodium-Sulfopropyl-Disulfide) which involves the deactivation of this suppressor chemistry. This suppressor deactivation is rationalized in terms of compositional changes in the layer of the chemisorbed anions due to the competition of chloride and MPS (Mercaptopropane Sulfonic Acid) for adsorption sites on the metallic copper surface. MPS is the product of the dissociative SPS adsorption within the preexisting chloride matrix on the copper surface. The non-selectivity in the adsorption behavior of the type-II suppressor is rationalized in terms of anion/cation pairing effects of the poly-cationic suppressor and the anion-modified copper substrate. Atomic-scale insights into the competitive Cl/MPS adsorption are gained from in situ STM (Scanning Tunneling Microscopy) using single crystalline copper surfaces as model substrates. Type-III suppressors are a third class of suppressors. In case of type-land type-II suppressor chemistries the resulting steady-state deposition conditions are completely independent on the particular succession of additive adsorption. In contrast to that a strong dependence of the suppressing capabilities on the sequence of additive adsorption ("first comes, first serves" principle) is observed for the type-IIIsuppressor. This behavior:is explained by a suppressor barrier that impedes not only the copper inter-diffusion but also the transport of other additives (e.g. SPS) to the copper surface. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential drought stress in a Swiss mountain catchment-Ensemble forecasting of high mountain soil moisture reveals a drastic decrease, despite major uncertainties

Climate change is expected to profoundly influence the hydrosphere of mountain ecosystems. The focus of current process-based research is centered on the reaction of glaciers and runoff to climate change; spatially explicit impacts on soil moisture remain widely neglected. We spatio-temporally analyzed the impact of the climate on soil moisture in a mesoscale high mountain catchment to facilitate the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies at the level of vegetation patterns. Two regional climate models were downscaled using three different approaches (statistical downscaling, delta change, and direct use) to drive a hydrological model (WaSiM-ETH) for reference and scenario period (1960–1990 and 2070–2100), resulting in an ensemble forecast of six members. For all ensembles members we found large changes in temperature, resulting in decreasing snow and ice storage and earlier runoff, but only small changes in evapotranspiration. The occurrence of downscaled dry spells was found to fluctuate greatly, causing soil moisture depletion and drought stress potential to show high variability in both space and time. In general, the choice of the downscaling approach had a stronger influence on the results than the applied regional climate model. All of the results indicate that summer soil moisture decreases, which leads to more frequent declines below a critical soil moisture level and an advanced evapotranspiration deficit. Forests up to an elevation of 1800 m a.s.l. are likely to be threatened the most, while alpine areas and most pastures remain nearly unaffected. Nevertheless, the ensemble variability was found to be extremely high and should be interpreted as a bandwidth of possible future drought stress situations.

Climate variability of the mid- and high-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in ensemble simulations from 1500 to 2000 AD

To increase the sparse knowledge of long-term Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate variability, we assess an ensemble of 4 transient simulations over the last 500 yr performed with a state-of-the-art atmosphere ocean general circulation model. The model is forced with reconstructions of solar irradiance, greenhouse gas (GHG) and volcanic aerosol concentrations. A 1990 control simulation shows that the model is able to represent the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and to some extent the South Pacific Dipole (SPD) and the Zonal Wave 3 (ZW3). During the past 500 yr we find that SPD and ZW3 variability remain stable, whereas SAM shows a significant shift towards its positive state during the 20th century. Regional temperatures over South America are strongly influenced by changing both GHG concentrations and volcanic eruptions, whereas precipitation shows no significant response to the varying external forcing. For temperature this stands in contrast to proxy records, suggesting that SH climate is dominated by internal variability rather than external forcing. The underlying dynamics of the temperature changes generally point to a combination of several modes, thus, hampering the possibilities of regional reconstructing the modes from proxy records. The linear imprint of the external forcing is as expected, i.e. a warming for increase in the combined solar and GHG forcing and a cooling after volcanic eruptions. Dynamically, only the increase in SAM with increased combined forcing is simulated.