Why are aggregate equity payouts pro-cyclical?

We use two general equilibrium models to explain why changes in the external economic environment result in pro-cyclical aggregate dividend payout behavior. Both models that we consider endogenize low elasticity of investment. The first model incorporates capital adjustment costs, while the second one assumes that risk-averse managers maximize their own objective function rather than shareholder wealth. We show that, while both models generate pro-cyclical aggregate dividends, a feature consistent with the observed business-cycle pattern of payouts from well-diversified portfolios, the second model provides a more likely explanation for this effect. Our findings emphasize the importance of incorporating agency conflicts when considering the relationship between the external economic environment and the financial behavior of businesses.

Reduced thermal conductivity by nanoscale intergrowths in perovskite like layered structure La2Ti2O7

The effect of substitution and oxidation-reduction on the thermal conductivity of perovskite-like layered structure (PLS) ceramics was investigated in relation to mass contrast and non-stoichiometry. Sr (acceptor) was substituted on the A site, while Ta (donor) was substituted on the B site of La2Ti2O7. Substitution in PLS materials creates atomic scale disorders to accommodate the non-stoichiometry. High resolution transmission electron microscopy and X ray diffraction revealed that acceptor substitution in La2Ti2O7 produced nanoscale intergrowths of n = 5 layered phase, while donor substitution produced nanoscale intergrowths of n = 3 layered phase. As a result of these nanoscale intergrowths, the thermal conductivity value reduced by as much as ∼20%. Pure La2Ti2O7 has a thermal conductivity value of ∼1.3 W/m K which dropped to a value of ∼1.12 W/m K for Sr doped La2Ti2O7 and ∼0.93 W/m K for Ta doped La2Ti2O7 at 573 K.

Aproveitamento sustentável do bagaço de cana de açúcar para obtenção do acetato de celulose

The sustainable use of waste resulting from the agribusiness is currently the focus of research, especially the sugar cane bagasse (BCA), being the lignocellulosic waste produced in greater volume in the Brazilian agribusiness, where the residual biomass has been applied in production energy and bioproducts. In this paper, pulp was produced in high purity from the (BCA) by pulping soda / anthraquinone and subsequent conversion to cellulose acetate. Commercial cellulose Avicel was used for comparison. The obtained cellulose acetate was homogeneous acetylation reaction by modifying the variables, the reaction time in hours (8, 12, 16, 20 and 24) and temperature in ° C (25 and 50). FTIR spectra showed characteristic bands identical to cellulosic materials, demonstrating the efficiency of separation by pulping. The characterization of cellulose acetate was obtained and by infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), X-ray diffraction (XRD), thermogravimetric analysis (TG / DTG / DSC), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and determining the degree of substitution (DS ) for the cellulose acetate to confirm the acetylation. The optimal reaction time for obtaining diacetates and triacetates, at both temperatures were 20 and 24 h. Cellulose acetate produced BCA presented GS between 2.57 and 2.7 at 25 ° C and 50 ° C GS obtained were 2.66 and 2.84, indicating the actual conversion of cellulose BCA of di- and triacetates. Comparative mode, commercial cellulose Avicel GS showed 2.78 and 2.76 at 25 ° C and 2.77 to 2.75 at 50 ° C. Data were collected in time of 20 h and 24 h, respectively. The best result was for the synthesis of cellulose acetate obtained from the BCA GS 2.84 to 50 ° C and 24 hours, being classified as cellulose triacetate, which showed superior result to that produced with the commercial ethyl cellulose Avicel, demonstrating converting potential of cellulose derived from a lignocellulosic residue (BCA), low cost, prospects of commercial use of cellulose acetate

Incorporação do resíduo de cascalho de perfuração de poços de petróleo em formulações cerâmicas

During its operations, the oil industry generates a lot of waste, including gravel from drilling. Control of environmental impacts caused by this waste represents a major challenge. Such impacts can be minimized when it is given an appropriate management by being properly treated and properly disposed or recycled. The properties of these materials can be greatly influenced when a waste is added to its composition. This work aims to study the incorporation of gravel waste oil-well drilling in the standard body for production of red ceramic from a ceramic industry in São Gonçalo do Amarante / RN. The success of the incorporation can minimize costs in the production of ceramic pieces and reduce the environmental impacts caused by waste. The raw materials used were collected, characterized, and formulated with the percentages of 0%, 20% and 40% by weight of substitution of residue were synthesized at temperatures of 900, 1.010 and 1.120 °C using 30 minute firing intervals, 1 hour and 30min and 2 hours and 30 minutes, based on a factorial design 2³. Samples were then subjected to the tests of Water Absorption, Linear Retraction Firing, Flexural Rupture Strength, Apparent Porosity and Apparent Specific mass and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) of break section. The results showed that the use of the residue for the manufacture of the ceramic products is possible (tiles, bricks and massive hollow bricks) replacing the clay to 40%, meeting the requirements of the standard and the literature for the technological properties of the final product.

Suivi par élastographie ultrasonore après réparation endovasculaire d’anévrisme aorto-iliaque : étude de faisabilité in vivo

Les maladies cardiovasculaires sont la première cause de mortalité dans le monde et les anévrismes de l’aorte abdominale (AAAs) font partie de ce lot déplorable. Un anévrisme est la dilatation d’une artère pouvant conduire à la mort. Une rupture d’AAA s’avère fatale près de 80% du temps. Un moyen de traiter les AAAs est l’insertion d’une endoprothèse (SG) dans l’aorte, communément appelée la réparation endovasculaire (EVAR), afin de réduire la pression exercée par le flux sanguin sur la paroi. L’efficacité de ce traitement est compromise par la survenue d’endofuites (flux sanguins entre la prothèse et le sac anévrismal) pouvant conduire à la rupture de l’anévrisme. Ces flux sanguins peuvent survenir à n’importe quel moment après le traitement EVAR. Une surveillance par tomodensitométrie (CT-scan) annuelle est donc requise, augmentant ainsi le coût du suivi post-EVAR et exposant le patient à la radiation ionisante et aux complications des contrastes iodés. L’endotension est le concept de dilatation de l’anévrisme sans la présence d’une endofuite apparente au CT-scan. Après le traitement EVAR, le sang dans le sac anévrismal coagule pour former un thrombus frais, qui deviendra progressivement un thrombus plus fibreux et plus organisé, donnant lieu à un rétrécissement de l’anévrisme. Il y a très peu de données dans la littérature pour étudier ce processus temporel et la relation entre le thrombus frais et l’endotension. L’étalon d’or du suivi post-EVAR, le CT-scan, ne peut pas détecter la présence de thrombus frais. Il y a donc un besoin d’investir dans une technique sécuritaire et moins coûteuse pour le suivi d’AAAs après EVAR. Une méthode récente, l’élastographie dynamique, mesure l’élasticité des tissus en temps réel. Le principe de cette technique repose sur la génération d’ondes de cisaillement et l’étude de leur propagation afin de remonter aux propriétés mécaniques du milieu étudié. Cette thèse vise l’application de l’élastographie dynamique pour la détection des endofuites ainsi que de la caractérisation mécanique des tissus du sac anévrismal après le traitement EVAR. Ce projet dévoile le potentiel de l’élastographie afin de réduire les dangers de la radiation, de l’utilisation d’agent de contraste ainsi que des coûts du post-EVAR des AAAs. L’élastographie dynamique utilisant le « Shear Wave Imaging » (SWI) est prometteuse. Cette modalité pourrait complémenter l’échographie-Doppler (DUS) déjà utilisée pour le suivi d’examen post-EVAR. Le SWI a le potentiel de fournir des informations sur l’organisation fibreuse du thrombus ainsi que sur la détection d’endofuites. Tout d’abord, le premier objectif de cette thèse consistait à tester le SWI sur des AAAs dans des modèles canins pour la détection d’endofuites et la caractérisation du thrombus. Des SGs furent implantées dans un groupe de 18 chiens avec un anévrisme créé au moyen de la veine jugulaire. 4 anévrismes avaient une endofuite de type I, 13 avaient une endofuite de type II et un anévrisme n’avait pas d’endofuite. Des examens échographiques, DUS et SWI ont été réalisés à l’implantation, puis 1 semaine, 1 mois, 3 mois et 6 mois après le traitement EVAR. Une angiographie, un CT-scan et des coupes macroscopiques ont été produits au sacrifice. Les régions d’endofuites, de thrombus frais et de thrombus organisé furent identifiées et segmentées. Les valeurs de rigidité données par le SWI des différentes régions furent comparées. Celles-ci furent différentes de façon significative (P < 0.001). Également, le SWI a pu détecter la présence d’endofuites où le CT-scan (1) et le DUS (3) ont échoué. Dans la continuité de ces travaux, le deuxième objectif de ce projet fut de caractériser l’évolution du thrombus dans le temps, de même que l’évolution des endofuites après embolisation dans des modèles canins. Dix-huit anévrismes furent créés dans les artères iliaques de neuf modèles canins, suivis d’une endofuite de type I après EVAR. Deux gels embolisants (Chitosan (Chi) ou Chitosan-Sodium-Tetradecyl-Sulfate (Chi-STS)) furent injectés dans le sac anévrismal pour promouvoir la guérison. Des examens échographiques, DUS et SWI ont été effectués à l’implantation et après 1 semaine, 1 mois, 3 mois et 6 mois. Une angiographie, un CT-scan et un examen histologique ont été réalisés au sacrifice afin d’évaluer la présence, le type et la grosseur de l’endofuite. Les valeurs du module d’élasticité des régions d’intérêts ont été identifiées et segmentées sur les données pathologiques. Les régions d’endofuites et de thrombus frais furent différentes de façon significative comparativement aux autres régions (P < 0.001). Les valeurs d’élasticité du thrombus frais à 1 semaine et à 3 mois indiquent que le SWI peut évaluer la maturation du thrombus, de même que caractériser l’évolution et la dégradation des gels embolisants dans le temps. Le SWI a pu détecter des endofuites où le DUS a échoué (2) et, contrairement au CT-scan, détecter la présence de thrombus frais. Finalement, la dernière étape du projet doctoral consistait à appliquer le SWI dans une phase clinique, avec des patients humains ayant déjà un AAA, pour la détection d’endofuite et la caractérisation de l’élasticité des tissus. 25 patients furent sélectionnés pour participer à l’étude. Une comparaison d’imagerie a été produite entre le SWI, le CT-scan et le DUS. Les valeurs de rigidité données par le SWI des différentes régions (endofuite, thrombus) furent identifiées et segmentées. Celles-ci étaient distinctes de façon significative (P < 0.001). Le SWI a détecté 5 endofuites sur 6 (sensibilité de 83.3%) et a eu 6 faux positifs (spécificité de 76%). Le SWI a pu détecter la présence d’endofuites où le CT-scan (2) ainsi que le DUS (2) ont échoué. Il n’y avait pas de différence statistique notable entre la rigidité du thrombus pour un AAA avec endofuite et un AAA sans endofuite. Aucune corrélation n’a pu être établie de façon significative entre les diamètres des AAAs ainsi que leurs variations et l’élasticité du thrombus. Le SWI a le potentiel de détecter les endofuites et caractériser le thrombus selon leurs propriétés mécaniques. Cette technique pourrait être combinée au suivi des AAAs post-EVAR, complémentant ainsi l’imagerie DUS et réduisant le coût et l’exposition à la radiation ionisante et aux agents de contrastes néphrotoxiques.

Tributos indiretos na cadeia produtiva do camarão

The state of Rio Grande do Norte counts with a relevant potential in the shrimp farming supply chain. In the larviculture step the state responds for more than half of the national production. In the farming step it is the second largest producer. In the industrial step, its industries have almost 40% of the shrimp processing capacity of the northeast of Brazil. However, this country has the highest tax rate comparing with the main shrimp producer countries. Considering the influence of taxes in the competition among companies, the main goal of this research is to analyze the impact of indirect taxes in the above steps of the supply chain. To achieve it, it will be used the data of the 2011 Census of the Shrimp Farming and it will be applied the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index to identify the market form of those steps. In order to contribute with the characterization of the supply chain, CEO´s of farms and industries will be interviewed. The price-elasticity of the shrimp larvae, the in natura shrimp and the processed shrimp will be analyzed in order to verify the possibility that each one of those three steps has to pass-through the onus of the end of benefit over the ICMS. The data analysis shows that the larviculture step functions as a duopoly and, facing the end of that benefit, it will be able to pass-through most its onus to the farming step. On the other hand, this step functions similar to a perfect competing market, which diminishes its capacity to pass-through that onus to the processing step. This step operates as oligopoly with a lower concentration than the larviculture step but, due to the fact that it faces an oligopsony, it will end up assuming most of that onus, which will cause a decrease in the amount of processed shrimp. It is concluded that the end of that benefit would impact negatively, in this state, the supply chain at all, but mainly the farming and the industrial steps

Desenvolvimento de um cerâmico Al2O3/TI(C,N) para uso em maquinação

O principal objetivo deste trabalho é preparar um cermeto do tipo Al2O3/Ti(C,N) com propriedades mecânicas adequadas à sua utilização na maquinação de materiais do tipo DIN ISO 513:K01-K10 e ISO H01-H10. De forma a incrementar a sinterabilidade do cermeto investigou-se o efeito da adição de dopantes metálicos, nomeadamente alumínio metálico (Al) e hidreto de titânio (TiH2) e o efeito da substituição da moagem convencional por moagem de alta energia. As variáveis das etapas principais de processamento, i.e., da moagem, prensagem e sinterização, foram selecionadas com trabalho realizado quer na Universidade de Aveiro quer na empresa Palbit. Foram preparadas três composições do cermeto Al2O3/Ti(C,N) com adições de 5%TiH2, 1%Al e 5%TiH21%Al através da moagem de alta energia. Os parâmetros de moagem, i.e. a velocidade de rotação, o rácio bolas/pó e o tempo de moagem foram otimizados para os seguintes valores: 350 rpm, 10:1 e 5 h, respetivamente. A utilização da moagem de alta energia permitiu uma redução do tamanho de partícula dos pós até aproximadamente 100 nm e a obtenção de uma boa uniformidade da distribuição das fases (Al2O3+Ti(C,N)). A etapa de conformação foi efetuada por prensagem uniaxial seguida de prensagem isostática. A avaliação da reatividade dos cermetos através de dilatometria em atmosfera de vácuo revelou que a densificação é maioritariamente realizada em estado sólido. A adição de apenas 1%Al é a menos efetiva para a densificação. Os cermetos foram sinterizados através de sinterização convencional em forno de vazio a 1650ºC e prensagem a quente (1650ºC com uma pressão uniaxial de 25 MPa). Os valores de densificação obtidos, aproximadamente 80% e 100%, respetivamente, indicam que a aplicação de pressão durante a sinterização é efetiva para atingir densificações elevadas nos compactos, compatíveis com as suas aplicações tecnológicas. As propriedades mecânicas de dureza e de tenacidade avaliadas nos três cermetos apresentaram valores aproximados de 1800-1900 HV50 para a dureza e entre 5.4 e 7.7 MPa.m1/2 para a tenacidade à fratura.

New biomass derived carbon catalysts for biomass valorization

Due to diminishing petroleum reserves, unsteady market situation and the environmental concerns associated with utilization of fossil resources, the utilization of renewables for production of energy and chemicals (biorefining) has gained considerable attention. Biomass is the only sustainable source of organic compounds that has been proposed as petroleum equivalent for the production of fuels, chemicals and materials. In fact, it would not be wrong to say that the only viable answer to sustainably convene our future energy and material requirements remain with a bio-based economy with biomass based industries and products. This has prompted biomass valorization (biorefining) to become an important area of industrial research. While many disciplines of science are involved in the realization of this effort, catalysis and knowledge of chemical technology are considered to be particularly important to eventually render this dream to come true. Traditionally, the catalyst research for biomass conversion has been focused primarily on commercially available catalysts like zeolites, silica and various metals (Pt, Pd, Au, Ni) supported on zeolites, silica etc. Nevertheless, the main drawbacks of these catalysts are coupled with high material cost, low activity, limited reusability etc. – all facts that render them less attractive in industrial scale applications (poor activity for the price). Thus, there is a particular need to develop active, robust and cost efficient catalytic systems capable of converting complex biomass molecules. Saccharification, esterification, transesterification and acetylation are important chemical processes in the valorization chain of biomasses (and several biomass components) for production of platform chemicals, transportation fuels, food additives and materials. In the current work, various novel acidic carbons were synthesized from wastes generated from biodiesel and allied industries, and employed as catalysts in the aforementioned reactions. The structure and surface properties of the novel materials were investigated by XRD, XPS, elemental analysis, SEM, TEM, TPD and N2-physisorption techniques. The agro-industrial waste derived sulfonic acid functionalized novel carbons exhibit excellent catalytic activity in the aforementioned reactions and easily outperformed liquid H2SO4 and conventional solid acids (zeolites, ion-exchange resins etc). The experimental results indicated strong influence of catalyst pore-structure (pore size, pore-volume), concentration of –SO3H groups and surface properties in terms of the activity and selectivity of these catalysts. Here, a large pore catalyst with high –SO3H density exhibited the highest esterification and transesterification activity, and was successfully employed in biodiesel production from fatty acids and low grade acidic oils. Also, a catalyst decay model was proposed upon biodiesel production and could explain that the catalyst loses its activity mainly due to active site blocking by adsorption of impurities and by-products. The large pore sulfonated catalyst also exhibited good catalytic performance in the selective synthesis of triacetin via acetylation of glycerol with acetic anhydride and out-performed the best zeolite H-Y with respect to reusability. It also demonstrated equally good activity in acetylation of cellulose to soluble cellulose acetates, with the possibility to control cellulose acetate yield and quality (degree of substitution, DS) by a simple adjustment of reaction time and acetic anhydride concentration. In contrast, the small pore and highly functionalized catalysts obtained by hydrothermal method and from protein rich waste (Jatropha de-oiled waste cake, DOWC), were active and selective in the esterification of glycerol with fatty acids to monoglycerides and saccharification of cellulosic materials, respectively. The operational stability and reusability of the catalyst was found to depend on the stability of –SO3H function (leaching) as well as active site blocking due to adsorption of impurities during the reaction. Thus, our results corroborate the potential of DOWC derived sulfated mesoporous active carbons as efficient integrated solid acid catalysts for valorization of biomass to platform chemicals, biofuel, bio-additive, surfactants and celluloseesters.

Traumatic abdominal wall hernia. Case report

Despite the high incidence of abdominal traumas, traumatic abdominal wall hernias (TAWHs) remain rare probably because of elasticity of the abdominal wall. The TAWH is due to blunt abdominal trauma with disruption of the abdominal wall muscles and fascia with intact overlying skin. TAWH can be classified into high energy injures (generally motor vehicle accidents) and low energy injures (impact on a small blunt object). Common example of the latter type is a fall onto a bicycle handlebar. The mechanism of the trauma includes sudden increase of intra-abdominal pressure and extensive shear forces applied to the abdominal wall. The diagnosis of TAWH is difficult in the Emergency Room because during the primary diagnostic process most attention is directed toward the detection of internal injures and TAWH can be missed. In this article we report a case of TAWH caused by a work accident (an heavy steel tube fallen onto the abdominal wall of the patient from a height of five meters) with delayed diagnosis.

Modyfikacja aglikonu Josamycyny z wykorzystaniem regioselektywnej substytucji nukleofilowej typu SN1’ i dipolarnej cykloaddycji Huisgena

Wydział Chemii: Zakład Syntezy i Struktury Związków Organicznych

Acetilação do exopolissacarídeo (1→6)-β-D-glucana (lasiodiplodana): derivatização química e caracterização

Lasiodiplodan is an exocellular β-glucan with biological functionalities such as antioxidant, antiproliferative, hypocholesterolemic, protective activity against DNA damage induced by doxorubicin and hypoglycemic activity. Chemical derivatization of polysaccharide macromolecules has been considered as a potentiating mechanism for bioactivity. In this context, this work proposes the derivatization of lasiodiplodan by acetylation. Acetic anhydride was used as derivatizing agent and pyridine as catalyst and reaction medium. The derivatives obtained were evaluated by its water solubility, degree of substitution (DS), antioxidant potential, and characterized by infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR), thermal analysis, differential scanning calorimetry, X-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy. Acetylated derivatives with different degrees of substitution (1.26; 1.03; 0.66 and 0.48) were obtained, and there was correlation between the concentration of derivatizing agent and DS. FT-IR spectroscopy analysis confirmed the insertion of acetyl groups into derivatized macromolecules (LAS-AC) through of specific bands concerning to carbonyl group (C = O) and increase in C-O vibration. SEM analysis indicated that native lasiodiplodan presents morphological structure in the form of thin films with translucent appearance and folds along its length. Derivatization led to morphological changes in the polymer, including aspects thickness, translucency and agglomeration. Thermal analysis indicated the native sample and derivative with DS 0.48 presented three weight loss stages. The first stage occurred until 125 ° C (loss of water) and there were two consecutive events of weight loss (200 ° C - 400 ° C) attributed to molecule degradation. Samples with DS 1.26; 1.03 and 0.66 demonstrated four weight loss stages. The first stage occurred until 130 ° C (loss of water), following by two consecutive events of weight loss (200 ° C - 392 ° C) attributed to degradation of the biopolymer. The fourth stage was between 381 ° C and 532 ° C (final decomposition) with exothermic peaks between 472 ° C and 491 ° C. X-ray diffraction patterns showed that native and acetylated lasiodiplodan have amorphous structure with semicrystalline regions. Derivatization did not contribute to increased solubility of the macromolecule, but potentiated its antioxidant capacity. Acetylation of lasiodiplodan allowed to obtaining a new macromolecule with higher antioxidant potential than the native molecule and with technological properties applicable in various industrial sectors.

Pricing derivatives with stochastic volatility

This Ph.D. thesis contains 4 essays in mathematical finance with a focus on pricing Asian option (Chapter 4), pricing futures and futures option (Chapter 5 and Chapter 6) and time dependent volatility in futures option (Chapter 7). In Chapter 4, the applicability of the Albrecher et al.(2005)'s comonotonicity approach was investigated in the context of various benchmark models for equities and com- modities. Instead of classical Levy models as in Albrecher et al.(2005), the focus is the Heston stochastic volatility model, the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model and the Schwartz (1997) two-factor model. It is shown that the method delivers rather tight upper bounds for the prices of Asian Options in these models and as a by-product delivers super-hedging strategies which can be easily implemented. In Chapter 5, two types of three-factor models were studied to give the value of com- modities futures contracts, which allow volatility to be stochastic. Both these two models have closed-form solutions for futures contracts price. However, it is shown that Model 2 is better than Model 1 theoretically and also performs very well empiri- cally. Moreover, Model 2 can easily be implemented in practice. In comparison to the Schwartz (1997) two-factor model, it is shown that Model 2 has its unique advantages; hence, it is also a good choice to price the value of commodity futures contracts. Fur- thermore, if these two models are used at the same time, a more accurate price for commodity futures contracts can be obtained in most situations. In Chapter 6, the applicability of the asymptotic approach developed in Fouque et al.(2000b) was investigated for pricing commodity futures options in a Schwartz (1997) multi-factor model, featuring both stochastic convenience yield and stochastic volatility. It is shown that the zero-order term in the expansion coincides with the Schwartz (1997) two-factor term, with averaged volatility, and an explicit expression for the first-order correction term is provided. With empirical data from the natural gas futures market, it is also demonstrated that a significantly better calibration can be achieved by using the correction term as compared to the standard Schwartz (1997) two-factor expression, at virtually no extra effort. In Chapter 7, a new pricing formula is derived for futures options in the Schwartz (1997) two-factor model with time dependent spot volatility. The pricing formula can also be used to find the result of the time dependent spot volatility with futures options prices in the market. Furthermore, the limitations of the method that is used to find the time dependent spot volatility will be explained, and it is also shown how to make sure of its accuracy.

Alueellinen sähkökuormien kehitysennuste Rovaniemen Verkko Oy:n jakelualueella

Tämän työn tavoitteena on skenaarioiden avulla luoda pitkän aikavälin alueellinen sähkökuormien kehitysennuste Rovaniemen Verkko Oy:lle. Pitkän aikavälin kuormitusennusteet ovat välttämättömiä verkon kehittämisen pohjalle, jotta verkko voidaan mitoittaa vastaamaan kuormitusta pitkälle tulevaisuuteen tekniset ja taloudelliset vaatimukset huomioiden. Kuormitusennusteen onkin jatkossa tarkoitus toimia apuvälineenä verkon strategisessa kehittämisessä. Pohjana kuormitusennusteissa on tilastokeskuksen ja Rovaniemen kaupungin väestö- ja työpaikkaennusteet. Väestöennusteiden ja erilaisten rakentamistilastoiden avulla arvioidaan uudisrakentamisen määrä tulevaisuudessa. Uudisrakentamisen kuormitusvaikutuksiin päästään työssä määritettyjen paikallisten ja rakennustyyppikohtaisten sähkön ominaiskulutuksien avulla. Kuormituksien alueellinen sijoittautuminen arvioidaan kaavoituksen ja kaupungin maankäytön toteuttamisohjelman avulla. Työssä tutkitaan myös tulevaisuudessa sähkönkäytössä tapahtuvien useiden muutosten vaikutusta alueelliseen kuormitukseen. Näitä muutoksia ovat muun muassa sähköautojen, hajautetun tuotannon, lämpöpumppujen ja kysynnän jouston lisääntyminen. Myös rakennusten jatkuvasti parantuva energiatehokkuus aiheuttaa muutoksia sähkön kulutukseen.

Suivi par élastographie ultrasonore après réparation endovasculaire d’anévrisme aorto-iliaque : étude de faisabilité in vivo

Les maladies cardiovasculaires sont la première cause de mortalité dans le monde et les anévrismes de l’aorte abdominale (AAAs) font partie de ce lot déplorable. Un anévrisme est la dilatation d’une artère pouvant conduire à la mort. Une rupture d’AAA s’avère fatale près de 80% du temps. Un moyen de traiter les AAAs est l’insertion d’une endoprothèse (SG) dans l’aorte, communément appelée la réparation endovasculaire (EVAR), afin de réduire la pression exercée par le flux sanguin sur la paroi. L’efficacité de ce traitement est compromise par la survenue d’endofuites (flux sanguins entre la prothèse et le sac anévrismal) pouvant conduire à la rupture de l’anévrisme. Ces flux sanguins peuvent survenir à n’importe quel moment après le traitement EVAR. Une surveillance par tomodensitométrie (CT-scan) annuelle est donc requise, augmentant ainsi le coût du suivi post-EVAR et exposant le patient à la radiation ionisante et aux complications des contrastes iodés. L’endotension est le concept de dilatation de l’anévrisme sans la présence d’une endofuite apparente au CT-scan. Après le traitement EVAR, le sang dans le sac anévrismal coagule pour former un thrombus frais, qui deviendra progressivement un thrombus plus fibreux et plus organisé, donnant lieu à un rétrécissement de l’anévrisme. Il y a très peu de données dans la littérature pour étudier ce processus temporel et la relation entre le thrombus frais et l’endotension. L’étalon d’or du suivi post-EVAR, le CT-scan, ne peut pas détecter la présence de thrombus frais. Il y a donc un besoin d’investir dans une technique sécuritaire et moins coûteuse pour le suivi d’AAAs après EVAR. Une méthode récente, l’élastographie dynamique, mesure l’élasticité des tissus en temps réel. Le principe de cette technique repose sur la génération d’ondes de cisaillement et l’étude de leur propagation afin de remonter aux propriétés mécaniques du milieu étudié. Cette thèse vise l’application de l’élastographie dynamique pour la détection des endofuites ainsi que de la caractérisation mécanique des tissus du sac anévrismal après le traitement EVAR. Ce projet dévoile le potentiel de l’élastographie afin de réduire les dangers de la radiation, de l’utilisation d’agent de contraste ainsi que des coûts du post-EVAR des AAAs. L’élastographie dynamique utilisant le « Shear Wave Imaging » (SWI) est prometteuse. Cette modalité pourrait complémenter l’échographie-Doppler (DUS) déjà utilisée pour le suivi d’examen post-EVAR. Le SWI a le potentiel de fournir des informations sur l’organisation fibreuse du thrombus ainsi que sur la détection d’endofuites. Tout d’abord, le premier objectif de cette thèse consistait à tester le SWI sur des AAAs dans des modèles canins pour la détection d’endofuites et la caractérisation du thrombus. Des SGs furent implantées dans un groupe de 18 chiens avec un anévrisme créé au moyen de la veine jugulaire. 4 anévrismes avaient une endofuite de type I, 13 avaient une endofuite de type II et un anévrisme n’avait pas d’endofuite. Des examens échographiques, DUS et SWI ont été réalisés à l’implantation, puis 1 semaine, 1 mois, 3 mois et 6 mois après le traitement EVAR. Une angiographie, un CT-scan et des coupes macroscopiques ont été produits au sacrifice. Les régions d’endofuites, de thrombus frais et de thrombus organisé furent identifiées et segmentées. Les valeurs de rigidité données par le SWI des différentes régions furent comparées. Celles-ci furent différentes de façon significative (P < 0.001). Également, le SWI a pu détecter la présence d’endofuites où le CT-scan (1) et le DUS (3) ont échoué. Dans la continuité de ces travaux, le deuxième objectif de ce projet fut de caractériser l’évolution du thrombus dans le temps, de même que l’évolution des endofuites après embolisation dans des modèles canins. Dix-huit anévrismes furent créés dans les artères iliaques de neuf modèles canins, suivis d’une endofuite de type I après EVAR. Deux gels embolisants (Chitosan (Chi) ou Chitosan-Sodium-Tetradecyl-Sulfate (Chi-STS)) furent injectés dans le sac anévrismal pour promouvoir la guérison. Des examens échographiques, DUS et SWI ont été effectués à l’implantation et après 1 semaine, 1 mois, 3 mois et 6 mois. Une angiographie, un CT-scan et un examen histologique ont été réalisés au sacrifice afin d’évaluer la présence, le type et la grosseur de l’endofuite. Les valeurs du module d’élasticité des régions d’intérêts ont été identifiées et segmentées sur les données pathologiques. Les régions d’endofuites et de thrombus frais furent différentes de façon significative comparativement aux autres régions (P < 0.001). Les valeurs d’élasticité du thrombus frais à 1 semaine et à 3 mois indiquent que le SWI peut évaluer la maturation du thrombus, de même que caractériser l’évolution et la dégradation des gels embolisants dans le temps. Le SWI a pu détecter des endofuites où le DUS a échoué (2) et, contrairement au CT-scan, détecter la présence de thrombus frais. Finalement, la dernière étape du projet doctoral consistait à appliquer le SWI dans une phase clinique, avec des patients humains ayant déjà un AAA, pour la détection d’endofuite et la caractérisation de l’élasticité des tissus. 25 patients furent sélectionnés pour participer à l’étude. Une comparaison d’imagerie a été produite entre le SWI, le CT-scan et le DUS. Les valeurs de rigidité données par le SWI des différentes régions (endofuite, thrombus) furent identifiées et segmentées. Celles-ci étaient distinctes de façon significative (P < 0.001). Le SWI a détecté 5 endofuites sur 6 (sensibilité de 83.3%) et a eu 6 faux positifs (spécificité de 76%). Le SWI a pu détecter la présence d’endofuites où le CT-scan (2) ainsi que le DUS (2) ont échoué. Il n’y avait pas de différence statistique notable entre la rigidité du thrombus pour un AAA avec endofuite et un AAA sans endofuite. Aucune corrélation n’a pu être établie de façon significative entre les diamètres des AAAs ainsi que leurs variations et l’élasticité du thrombus. Le SWI a le potentiel de détecter les endofuites et caractériser le thrombus selon leurs propriétés mécaniques. Cette technique pourrait être combinée au suivi des AAAs post-EVAR, complémentant ainsi l’imagerie DUS et réduisant le coût et l’exposition à la radiation ionisante et aux agents de contrastes néphrotoxiques.

Essays in Greenhouse/Nursery Economics

This dissertation focuses on the greenhouse and nursery industry in the United States. Two major issues are explored: irrigation and plant disease. The first two essays examine wireless soil-moisture sensor networks, an emerging technology that measures soil moisture and optimizes irrigation levels in real time. The first essay describes a study in which a nationwide survey of commercial growers was administered to generate estimates of grower demand and willingness to pay for sensor networks. We find that adoption rates for a base system and demand for expansion components are decreasing in price, as expected. The price elasticity of the probability of adoption suggests that sensor networks are likely to diffuse at a rate somewhat greater than that of drip irrigation. In the second essay, yields, time-to-harvest, and plant quality were analyzed to measure sensor network profitability. Sensor-based irrigation was found to increase revenue by 62% and profit by 65% per year. The third essay investigates greenhouse nursery growers’ response to a quarantine imposed on the west coast of the United States from 2002 to present for the plant pathogen that causes Sudden Oak Death. I investigate whether growers choose to 1) improve their sanitation practices, which reduces the underlying risk of disease without increasing the difficulty of detecting the pathogen, 2) increase fungicide use, which also prevents disease but makes existing infections much harder to detect, or 3) change their crop composition towards more resistant species. First, a theoretical model is derived to formalize hypotheses on grower responses to the quarantine, and then these predictions are empirically tested using several public data sources. I do not find evidence that growers improve their sanitation practices in response to the quarantine. I do, however, find evidence that growers heavily increase their fungicide use in response to a quarantine policy that requires visual (as opposed to laboratory) inspection for the disease before every crop shipment, suggesting that the quarantine may have the adverse effect of making the pathogen harder to identify. I also do find evidence that growers shift away from susceptible crops and towards resistant crops.