Validation and reclassification of MGAP and GAP in hospital settings using data from the Trauma Audit and Research Network.

BACKGROUND Recently, two simple clinical scores were published to predict survival in trauma patients. Both scores may successfully guide major trauma triage, but neither has been independently validated in a hospital setting. METHODS This is a cohort study with 30-day mortality as the primary outcome to validate two new trauma scores-Mechanism, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), Age, and Pressure (MGAP) score and GCS, Age and Pressure (GAP) score-using data from the UK Trauma Audit and Research Network. First, an assessment of discrimination, using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration, comparing mortality rates with those originally published, were performed. Second, we calculated sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and likelihood ratios for prognostic score performance. Third, we propose new cutoffs for the risk categories. RESULTS A total of 79,807 adult (≥16 years) major trauma patients (2000-2010) were included; 5,474 (6.9%) died. Mean (SD) age was 51.5 (22.4) years, median GCS score was 15 (interquartile range, 15-15), and median Injury Severity Score (ISS) was 9 (interquartile range, 9-16). More than 50% of the patients had a low-risk GAP or MGAP score (1% mortality). With regard to discrimination, areas under the ROC curve were 87.2% for GAP score (95% confidence interval, 86.7-87.7) and 86.8% for MGAP score (95% confidence interval, 86.2-87.3). With regard to calibration, 2,390 (3.3%), 1,900 (28.5%), and 1,184 (72.2%) patients died in the low, medium, and high GAP risk categories, respectively. In the low- and medium-risk groups, these were almost double the previously published rates. For MGAP, 1,861 (2.8%), 1,455 (15.2%), and 2,158 (58.6%) patients died in the low-, medium-, and high-risk categories, consonant with results originally published. Reclassifying score point cutoffs improved likelihood ratios, sensitivity and specificity, as well as areas under the ROC curve. CONCLUSION We found both scores to be valid triage tools to stratify emergency department patients, according to their risk of death. MGAP calibrated better, but GAP slightly improved discrimination. The newly proposed cutoffs better differentiate risk classification and may therefore facilitate hospital resource allocation. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Prognostic study, level II.

Comment: Earnings Returns to Education in Urban China: A Note on Testing Differences among Groups

Comment on Wu and Xie, ASR, June 2003

Toward Cove-Edged Low Band Gap Graphene Nanoribbons

Graphene nanoribbons (GNRs), defined as nanometer-wide strips of graphene, have attracted increasing attention as promising candidates for next-generation semiconductors. Here, we demonstrate a bottom-up strategy toward novel low band gap GNRs (E-g = 1.70 eV) with a well-defined cove-type periphery both in solution and on a solid substrate surface with chrysene as the key monomer. Corresponding cyclized chrysene-based oligornerS consisting of the dimer and tetramer are obtained via an Ullmann Coupling followed by oxidative intramolecular cyclodehydrogenation in solution, and much higher GNR homologues via on-surface synthesis. These oligomers adopt nonplanar structures due to the isteric repulsion between the two C-H bonds at the inner cove position. Characterizations by single crystal X-ray analysis, UV-vis absorption spectroscopy, NMR spectroscopy, and scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) are described. The interpretation is assisted by density functional theory (DFT) calculations.

Clinical acid-base pathophysiology: disorders of plasma anion gap.

The plasma anion gap is a frequently used parameter in the clinical diagnosis of a variety of conditions. The commonest application of the anion gap is to classify cases of metabolic acidosis into those that do and those that do not leave unmeasured anions in the plasma. While this algorithm is useful in streamlining the diagnostic process, it should not be used solely in this fashion. The anion gap measures the difference between the unmeasured anions and unmeasured cations and thus conveys much more information to the clinician than just quantifying anions of strong acids. In this chapter, the significance of the anion gap is emphasized and several examples are given to illustrate a more analytic approach to using the clinical anion gap; these include disorders of low anion gap, respiratory alkalosis and pyroglutamic acidosis.

The Black-White Achievement Gap Amongst Struggling Readers: A Case Study of Early Intervention Outcomes in Massachusetts

A number of analyses of large data sets have suggested that the reading achievement gap between African American and White U.S. is negligible or small at school entry, but widens substantially during the school years because African American students show slower rates of growth in elementary and secondary school. Identifying when and why gaps occur, therefore, is a an important research endeavor. In addition, being able to predict which African American children are most likely to fall behind can contribute to efforts to close the achievement gap. This paper analyzes first grade and third grade data on African American and White children in Massachusetts who all were identified in first grade as struggling readers and enrolled in Reading Recovery—an individualized intervention. All the children were low-income and attending urban schools. Using Observation Survey data from first grade, and MCAS Reading data from 3rd grade, we found that the African American and White students made equal average progress while in first grade, but by the end of third grade showed a large gap in MCAS proficiency rates. We discuss the results in terms of school quality, reading development, dialect issues, testing formats, and the need to provide long-term support to vulnerable learners.

Measuring Potential Output and Output Gap and Macroeconomic Policy: The Case of Kenya

Measuring the level of an economy.s potential output and output gap are essential in identifying a sustainable non-inflationary growth and assessing appropriate macroeconomic policies. The estimation of potential output helps to determine the pace of sustainable growth while output gap estimates provide a key benchmark against which to assess inflationary or disinflationary pressures suggesting when to tighten or ease monetary policies. These measures also help to provide a gauge in the determining the structural fiscal position of the government. This paper attempts to measure Kenya.s potential output and output gap using alternative statistical techniques and structural methods. Estimation of potential output and output gap using these techniques shows varied results. The estimated potential output growth using different methods gave a range of .2.9 to 2.4 percent for 2000 and a range of .0.8 to 4.6 for 2001. Although various methods produce varied results, they however provided a broad consensus on the over-all trend and performance of the Kenyan economy. This study found that firstly, potential output growth is declining over the recent time and secondly, the Kenyan economy is contracting in the recent years.

El empleo informal y la estructura del mercado laboral en las regiones argentinas

El proceso de informalización del sector formal que se ha observado en América Latina durante los últimos años implica la coexistencia de trabajadores formales e informales que desarrollan sus actividades bajo diferentes condiciones laborales en el mismo sector. Sin embargo, la literatura, tanto empírica como teórica, le asignó tradicionalmente una estructura homogénea. No obstante, la segmentación del mercado laboral, particularmente del sector formal, tiene importantes consecuencias para el ingreso de los trabajadores y la movilidad ocupacional. El objetivo de este estudio es explorar, desde una perspectiva dinámica, el impacto de la informalidad en la estructura del mercado laboral argentino, investigando especialmente la hipótesis de segmentación del sector formal en las distintas regiones del país. Con ese fin, a partir de microdatos obtenidos de la Encuesta Permanente de Hogares (EPH), se estiman brechas salariales individuales y matrices de transición que permiten analizar los movimientos entre categorías ocupacionales definidas a partir de la condición de informalidad del trabajador y del sector en el que se desempeña. El resultado más relevante es la evidencia encontrada a favor de la segmentación del sector formal. La importancia de este hallazgo radica en sus implicaciones respecto de un grupo de trabajadores 'los asalariados no registrados' que no solo sufren una penalización en términos salariales sino que permanecen bajo condiciones laborales desfavorables asociadas con la informalidad