Fiscal Sustainability in a New Keynesian Model

Recent work on optimal monetary and fiscal policy in New Keynesian models suggests that it is optimal to allow steady-state debt to follow a random walk. Leith and Wren-Lewis (2012) consider the nature of the timeinconsistency involved in such a policy and its implication for discretionary policy-making. We show that governments are tempted, given inflationary expectations, to utilize their monetary and fiscal instruments in the initial period to change the ultimate debt burden they need to service. We demonstrate that this temptation is only eliminated if following shocks, the new steady-state debt is equal to the original (efficient) debt level even though there is no explicit debt target in the government’s objective function. Analytically and in a series of numerical simulations we show which instrument is used to stabilize the debt depends crucially on the degree of nominal inertia and the size of the debt-stock. We also show that the welfare consequences of introducing debt are negligible for precommitment policies, but can be significant for discretionary policy. Finally, we assess the credibility of commitment policy by considering a quasi-commitment policy which allows for different probabilities of reneging on past promises. This on-line Appendix extends the results of this paper.

Expectations Traps and Coordination Failures with Discretionary Policymaking

Discretionary policymakers cannot manage private-sector expectations and cannot coordinate the actions of future policymakers. As a consequence, expectations traps and coordination failures can occur and multiple equilibria can arise. To utilize the explanatory power of models with multiple equilibria it is first necessary to understand how an economy arrives to a particular equilibrium. In this paper we employ notions of learnability and self-enforceability to motivate and identify equilibria of particular interest. Central among these criteria are whether the equilibrium is learnable by private agents and jointly learnable by private agents and the policymaker. We use two New Keynesian policy models to identify the strategic interactions that give rise to multiple equilibria and to illustrate our methods for identifying equilibria of interest. Importantly, unless the Pareto-preferred equilibrium is learnable by private agents, we find little reason to expect coordination on that equilibrium.

Optimal progressive taxation in a model with endogenous skill supply.

This paper examines whether efficiency considerations require that optimal labour income taxation is progressive or regressive in a model with skill heterogeneity, endogenous skill acquisition and a production sector with capital-skill complementarity. We find that wage inequality driven by the resource requirements of skill-creation implies progressive labour income taxation in the steady-state as well as along the transition path from the exogenous to optimal policy steady-state. We find that these results are explained by a lower labour supply elasticity for skilled versus unskilled labour which results from the introduction of the skill acquisition technology.

An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

Key to the species of Brazilian Procamallanus with general considerations (Nematoda, Camallanoidea)

In the present paper, the Peruvian Procamallanus (Spirocamallanus) incarocai (Freitas & Ibañez 1970) is proposed as a junior synonym of P. (S.) hilarii Vaz & Pereira, 1934. The validity of the subgenera Procamallanus Baylis, 1923 and Spirocammallanus Olsen, 1952 is discussed. a check list and a key to the species of Procamallanus Baylis, 1923 occuring in Brazil are presented.

On Thelazia anolabiata (Molin, 1860) Railliet & Henry, 1910 (Nematoda, Thelazioidea): a new host record and systematic considerations

Thelazia anolabiata (Molin, 1860) Raillet & Henry, 1910, parasite of eyes of birds, is reported in s new host, Ortalis canicolis pantanalensis Cher & Reich from Salobra, Mato Grosso do Sul State; T. digitata Travassos, 1918 and T. lutzi Travassos, 1918 are considered its synonyms.

Monographies on drugs, which are frequently analysed in the course of Therapeutic Drug Monitoring

In 1995 the working group "Drug Monitoring" of the Swiss Society of Clinical Chemistry (SSCC) has already published a printed version of drug monographs, which are now newly compiled and presented in a standardised manner. The aim of these monographs is to give an overview on the most important informations that are necessary in order to request a drug analysis or is helpful to interpret the results. Therefore, the targeted audience are laboratory health professionals or the receivers of the reports. There is information provided on the indication for therapeutic drug monitoring, protein binding, metabolic pathways and enzymes involved, elimination half life time and elimination routes as well as information on therapeutic or toxic concentrations. Because preanalytical considerations are of particular importance for therapeutic drug monitoring, there is also information given at which time the determination of the drug concentration is reasonable and when steady-state concentrations are reached after changing the dose. Furthermore, the stability of the drug and its metabolite(s), respectively, after blood sampling is described. For readers with a specific interest, references to important publications are given. The number of the monographs will be continuously enlarged. The updated files are presented on the homepage of the SSCC (www.sscc.ch).

Reproducibility and feasibility of a 22 joints ultrasound score in rheumatoid arthritis: a study among rheumatologists with diverse expertise in musculoskeletal ultrasound

Objective: To assess reproducibility and feasibility of amusculoskeletal ultrasound (US) score for rheumatoid arthritis amongrheumatologist with diverse expertise in US, working in private orhospital practice.Methods: The Swiss Sonography in Arthritis and Rheumatism(SONAR) group has developed a semi-quantitative score for RA usingOMERACT criteria for synovitis and erosion. The score was taught torheumatologists trained in US through two workshops. Subsequently,they were encouraged to practice in their office. For the study, we used6 US machines of different quality, each with a different patient.19 readers randomly selected among rheumatologists who haveattended both workshops, were asked to score anonymously at leastone patient. To assess whether some factors influence the score, weasked each reader to answer questionnaire describing his experiencewith US.Results: 19 rheumatologists have performed 29 scans, each patienthaving been evaluated by 4 to 6 readers. Median time for examcompletion was 20 minutes (range 15 to 60 mn). 53% ofrheumatologists work in private practice. Graph 1 show the global greyscale score for each patient. Weighted kappa was calculated for eachpair of reader using stata11. Almost all kappa of poor agreement wereobtained with a low quality device or by an assessor who havepreviously performed less than 5 scores himself.Conclusions: This is the first study to show an US score for RAfeasible by rheumatologists with diverse expertise in US both in privateand hospital practice. Reproducibility seemed to be influenced by thequality of device and previous experience with the score.

Conclusions on the measurement of arterial wall thickness: anatomic, physiologic and methodologic considerations

AIM: To discuss the use of new ultrasonic techniques that make it possible to visualize elastic (carotid) and muscular (radial) capacitance arteries non-invasively. RESULTS OF DATA REVIEW: Measurements of carotid wall thickness and the detection of atheromas are related to arterial pressure, to other risk factors and to the risk of subsequent complications. The use of high-frequency ultrasound (7.5-10 MHz), measurements of far wall thicknesses in areas free of atheromas at end-diastole (by ECG gating or pressure waveform recording) and descriptions of the size and characteristics of atherosclerotic plaques allow a non-invasive assessment of vascular hypertrophy and atherosclerosis in hypertensive patients. CONCLUSIONS: Careful attention to methodologic and physiologic factors is needed to provide accurate information about the anatomy of the dynamically pulsating arterial tree.

Immunological mechanism of action and clinical profile of disease-modifying treatments in multiple sclerosis.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a life-long, potentially debilitating disease of the central nervous system (CNS). MS is considered to be an immune-mediated disease, and the presence of autoreactive peripheral lymphocytes in CNS compartments is believed to be critical in the process of demyelination and tissue damage in MS. Although MS is not currently a curable disease, several disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) are now available, or are in development. These DMTs are all thought to primarily suppress autoimmune activity within the CNS. Each therapy has its own mechanism of action (MoA) and, as a consequence, each has a different efficacy and safety profile. Neurologists can now select therapies on a more individual, patient-tailored basis, with the aim of maximizing potential for long-term efficacy without interruptions in treatment. The MoA and clinical profile of MS therapies are important considerations when making that choice or when switching therapies due to suboptimal disease response. This article therefore reviews the known and putative immunological MoAs alongside a summary of the clinical profile of therapies approved for relapsing forms of MS, and those in late-stage development, based on published data from pivotal randomized, controlled trials.

Origin of Early Carboniferous pseudo-adakites in northern Brittany (France) through massive amphibole fractionation from hydrous basalt

P>The first Variscan pseudo-adakites were identified in close association with the Saint-Jean-du-Doigt (SJDD) mafic intrusion (Brittany, France) in a geodynamic context unrelated to subduction. These rocks are trondhjemites emplaced 347 +/- 4 Ma ago as 2-3 km2 bodies and dykes. Trace-element concentrations and Sr-Nd-Pb isotope ratios indicate that the SJDD pseudo-adakites probably resulted from extreme differentiation of an SJDD-type hydrous basaltic magma in a lower continental crust of normal thickness (0.8 GPa). Modelling shows that garnet is not a required phase, which was commonly believed to be the case for continental arc-derived adakite-like rocks. A massive fractionation of amphibole fits the data much better and does not require high pressures, in agreement with the inferred extensional tectonic regime at the time of pluton emplacement. Alternatively, the SJDD pseudo-adakites could have resulted from the melting of newly underplated SJDD mafic precursors, but thermal considerations lead us to believe that this was not the case.

Species and serovars of the genus Listeria lsolated from different sources in Brazil from 1971 to 1997

Using phenotype techniques, characterization was made to species and serovar of 3,112 strains of Listeria, isolated from different sources of infection such as human (247-7.9%) and animals (239-7.6%), as well as from various routes of infection, including food (2,330-74.8%) and environmental constituents (296-9.5%), all coming from different regions of the country and collected during the period 1971-1997. The following species were recovered in the cultures analysed: L. monocytogenes (774-24.8%), L. innocua (2,269-72.9%), L. seeligeri (37-1.1%), L. welshimeri (22-0.7%), L. grayi (9-0.2%), and L. ivanovii (1-0.03%). L. monocytogenes was represented by ten serovars, the most prevalent being 4b (352-11.3%), 1/2a (162-5.2%), and 1/2b (148-4.7%). The predominant serovar in L. innocua was 6a (2,093-67.2%). Considerations about laboratory methods for diagnosis and epidemiological aspects are presented on the basis of the results obtained.

Drug monographs on drugs which are frequently analysed in the context of Therapeutic Drug Monitoring = Arzneimittel-Monographien für Medikamente, die regelmässig im Rahmen des Therapeutic Drug Monitorings analysiert werden

In addition to the monographs which were published last year by the working group "Drug Monitoring" of the Swiss Society of Clinical Chemistry (SSCC) [1], new monographs have been written. The aim of these monographs is to give an overview of the most important information necessary for ordering a drug analysis or interpreting the results. Therefore, the targeted readers comprise laboratory health professionals and all receivers of laboratory reports. There is information provided on the indication for therapeutic drug monitoring, protein binding, metabolic pathways and enzymes involved, elimination half-life and elimination routes, and on therapeutic or toxic concentrations. Preanalytical considerations are of particular importance for therapeutic drug monitoring. Therefore, information is provided regarding a reasonable timing for the determination of drug concentrations as well as steady-state concentrations after changing the dose. Furthermore, the stability of the drug and its metabolite(s) after blood sampling is described. For readers with a specific interest in drug analysis, references to important publications are given. The number of monographs will be continuously enlarged. The updated files are presented on the homepage of the SSCC (www.sscc.ch).

Evaluation of pilot initiatives undertaken in the North Eastern and South Eastern Health Boards on the provision of General Practitioner out-of-hours services in those areas

To assess the efficiency and effectiveness of the management, administrative and support structures for the General Practitioner out-of-hours pilot projects in the North Eastern and South Eastern Health Boards having regard to value for money and service enhancement considerations Download the Report here