Predicting smoking cessation and its relapse in HIV-infected patients: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to assess whether prospective follow-up data within the Swiss HIV Cohort Study can be used to predict patients who stop smoking; or among smokers who stop, those who start smoking again. METHODS: We built prediction models first using clinical reasoning ('clinical models') and then by selecting from numerous candidate predictors using advanced statistical methods ('statistical models'). Our clinical models were based on literature that suggests that motivation drives smoking cessation, while dependence drives relapse in those attempting to stop. Our statistical models were based on automatic variable selection using additive logistic regression with component-wise gradient boosting. RESULTS: Of 4833 smokers, 26% stopped smoking, at least temporarily; because among those who stopped, 48% started smoking again. The predictive performance of our clinical and statistical models was modest. A basic clinical model for cessation, with patients classified into three motivational groups, was nearly as discriminatory as a constrained statistical model with just the most important predictors (the ratio of nonsmoking visits to total visits, alcohol or drug dependence, psychiatric comorbidities, recent hospitalization and age). A basic clinical model for relapse, based on the maximum number of cigarettes per day prior to stopping, was not as discriminatory as a constrained statistical model with just the ratio of nonsmoking visits to total visits. CONCLUSIONS: Predicting smoking cessation and relapse is difficult, so that simple models are nearly as discriminatory as complex ones. Patients with a history of attempting to stop and those known to have stopped recently are the best candidates for an intervention.

Research and teaching: a holy or an unholy alliance?

Much of the self-image of the Western university hangs on the idea that research and teaching are intimately connected. The central axiom here is that research and teaching are mutually supportive of each other. An institution lacking such a set of relationships between research and teaching falls short of what it means to be a university. This set of beliefs raises certain questions: Is it the case that the presence of such a mutually supportive set of relationships between research and teaching is a necessary condition of the fulfilment of the idea of the university? (A conceptual question). And is it true that, in practice today, such a mutually supportive set of relationships between research and teaching characterises universities? (An empirical question). In my talk, I want to explore these matters in a critical vein. I shall suggest that: a) In practice today, such a mutually supportive set of relationships between research and teaching is in jeopardy. Far from supporting each other, very often research and teaching contend against each other. Research and teaching are becoming two separate ideologies, with their own interest structures. b) Historically, the supposed tight link between research and teaching is both of recent origin and far from universally achieved in universities. Institutional separateness between research and teaching is and has been evident, both across institutions and even across departments in the same institution. c) Conceptually, research and teaching are different activities: each is complex and neither is reducible to the other. In theory, therefore, research and teaching may be said to constitute a holy alliance but in practice, we see more of an unholy alliance. If, then, in an ideal world, a positive relationship between research and teaching is still a worthwhile goal, how might it be construed and worked for? Seeing research and teaching as two discrete and unified sets of activity is now inadequate. Much better is a construal of research and teaching as themselves complexes, as intermingling pools of activity helping to form the liquid university that is emerging today. On this view, research and teaching are fluid spaces, ever on the move, taking up new shapes, and themselves dividing and reforming, as the university reworks its own destiny in modern society. On such a perspective, working out a productive relationship between research and teaching is a complex project. This is an alliance that is neither holy nor unholy. It is an uneasy alliance, with temporary accommodations and continuous new possibilities.

Integrated assessment of agricultural sustainability: the pros and cons of reductionism

In this paper I review a series of theoretical concepts that are relevant for the integrated assessment of agricultural sustainability but that are not generally included in the curriculum of the various scientific disciplines dealing with quantitative analysis of agriculture. I first illustrate with plain narratives and concrete examples that sustainability is an extremely complex issue requiring the simultaneous consideration of several aspects, which cannot be reduced into a single indicator of performance. Following, I justify this obvious need for multi-criteria analysis with theoretical concepts dealing with the epistemological predicament of complexity, starting from classic philosophical lessons to arrive to recent developments in complex system theory, in particular Rosen´s theory of modelling relation which is essential to analyze the quality of any quantitative representation. The implications of these theoretical concepts are then illustrated with applications of multi-criteria analysis to the sustainability of agriculture. I wrap up by pointing out the crucial difference between "integrated assessment" and "integrated analysis". An integrated analysis is a set of indicators and analytical models generating an analytical output. An integrated assessment is much more than that. It is about finding an effective way to deal with three key issues: (i) legitimacy – how to handle the unavoidable existence of legitimate but contrasting points of view about different meanings given by social actors to the word "development"; (ii) pertinence – how to handle in a coherent way scientific analyses referring to different scales and dimensions; and (iii) credibility – how to handle the unavoidable existence of uncertainty and genuine ignorance, when dealing with the analysis of future scenarios.

Structural prediction of peptides bound to MHC class I.

An ab initio structure prediction approach adapted to the peptide-major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I system is presented. Based on structure comparisons of a large set of peptide-MHC class I complexes, a molecular dynamics protocol is proposed using simulated annealing (SA) cycles to sample the conformational space of the peptide in its fixed MHC environment. A set of 14 peptide-human leukocyte antigen (HLA) A0201 and 27 peptide-non-HLA A0201 complexes for which X-ray structures are available is used to test the accuracy of the prediction method. For each complex, 1000 peptide conformers are obtained from the SA sampling. A graph theory clustering algorithm based on heavy atom root-mean-square deviation (RMSD) values is applied to the sampled conformers. The clusters are ranked using cluster size, mean effective or conformational free energies, with solvation free energies computed using Generalized Born MV 2 (GB-MV2) and Poisson-Boltzmann (PB) continuum models. The final conformation is chosen as the center of the best-ranked cluster. With conformational free energies, the overall prediction success is 83% using a 1.00 Angstroms crystal RMSD criterion for main-chain atoms, and 76% using a 1.50 Angstroms RMSD criterion for heavy atoms. The prediction success is even higher for the set of 14 peptide-HLA A0201 complexes: 100% of the peptides have main-chain RMSD values < or =1.00 Angstroms and 93% of the peptides have heavy atom RMSD values < or =1.50 Angstroms. This structure prediction method can be applied to complexes of natural or modified antigenic peptides in their MHC environment with the aim to perform rational structure-based optimizations of tumor vaccines.

Complementarities between mathematical and computational modeling: the case of the repeated Prisoners' Dilemma

We study the properties of the well known Replicator Dynamics when applied to a finitely repeated version of the Prisoners' Dilemma game. We characterize the behavior of such dynamics under strongly simplifying assumptions (i.e. only 3 strategies are available) and show that the basin of attraction of defection shrinks as the number of repetitions increases. After discussing the difficulties involved in trying to relax the 'strongly simplifying assumptions' above, we approach the same model by means of simulations based on genetic algorithms. The resulting simulations describe a behavior of the system very close to the one predicted by the replicator dynamics without imposing any of the assumptions of the mathematical model. Our main conclusion is that mathematical and computational models are good complements for research in social sciences. Indeed, while computational models are extremely useful to extend the scope of the analysis to complex scenarios hard to analyze mathematically, formal models can be useful to verify and to explain the outcomes of computational models.

Reconstructing the origins of high-alpine niches and cushion life form in the genus Androsace S.L. (Primulaceae).

Relatively, few species have been able to colonize extremely cold alpine environments. We investigate the role played by the cushion life form in the evolution of climatic niches in the plant genus Androsace s.l., which spreads across the mountain ranges of the Northern Hemisphere. Using robust methods that account for phylogenetic uncertainty, intraspecific variability of climatic requirements and different life-history evolution scenarios, we show that climatic niches of Androsace s.l. exhibit low phylogenetic signal and that they evolved relatively recently and punctually. Models of niche evolution fitted onto phylogenies show that the cushion life form has been a key innovation providing the opportunity to occupy extremely cold environments, thus contributing to rapid climatic niche diversification in the genus Androsace s.l. We then propose a plausible scenario for the adaptation of plants to alpine habitats.

Narcolepsy and familial advanced sleep-phase syndrome: molecular genetics of sleep disorders.

Sleep disorders are very prevalent and represent an emerging worldwide epidemic. However, research into the molecular genetics of sleep disorders remains surprisingly one of the least active fields. Nevertheless, rapid progress is being made in several prototypical disorders, leading recently to the identification of the molecular pathways underlying narcolepsy and familial advanced sleep-phase syndrome. Since the first reports of spontaneous and induced loss-of-function mutations leading to hypocretin deficiency in human and animal models of narcolepsy, the role of this novel neurotransmission pathway in sleep and several other behaviors has gained extensive interest. Also, very recent studies using an animal model of familial advanced sleep-phase syndrome shed new light on the regulation of circadian rhythms.

Gut-derived signaling molecules and vagal afferents in the control of glucose and energy homeostasis.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The control of glucose and energy homeostasis, including feeding behaviour, is tightly regulated by gut-derived peptidic and nonpeptidic endocrine mediators, autonomic nervous signals, as well as nutrients such as glucose. We will review recent findings on the role of the gastrointestinal tract innervation and of portal vein glucose sensors; we will review selected data on the action of gastrointestinally released hormones. RECENT FINDINGS: The involvement of mechanosensory vagal afferents in postprandial meal termination has been clarified using mouse models with selective impairments of genes required for development of mechanosensory fibres. These activate central glucogen-like peptide-1/glucogen-like peptide-2 containing ascending pathways linking the visceroceptive brainstem neurons to hypothalamic nuclei. Mucosal terminals comprise the chemosensory vagal afferents responsive to postprandially released gastrointestinal hormones. The mechanism by which the hepatoportal glucose sensor stimulates glucose utilization by muscles was demonstrated, using genetically modified mice, to be insulin-independent but to require GLUT4 and AMP-kinase. This sensor is a key site of glucogen-like peptide-1 action and plays a critical role in triggering first phase insulin secretion. PeptideYY and ghrelin target intracerebral receptors as they are bidirectionally transported across the blood brain barrier. The anorectic functions of peripherally released peptideYY may however be mediated both via vagal afferents and intracerebral Y2 receptors in the brainstem and arcuate nucleus. SUMMARY: These recent findings demonstrate that the use of improved anatomical and physiological techniques and animal models with targeted gene modifications lead to an improved understanding of the complex role of gastrointestinal signals in the control of energy homeostasis.

Women and Dementia - Not forgotten ILC-UK

ILC-UK recently (31 Aug 2011)��published a report calling for a gendered approach and response to dementia at the national and international level. The report posits that women will disproportionately bear the burden of dementia in terms of numbers, but also impact in the coming years. The ‘feminization of ageing’ is a widely recognised trend and yet hitherto a comprehensive approach to the impact of dementia on women remains largely under explored.Invariably women and men as they age, share many of the same fundamental needs. Yet, as is acknowledged in many parts of the world, older women are particularly vulnerable and are subject to prolonged inequalities experienced since childhood, for example, lower levels of education and a greater risk of poverty. This report assumes a life course approach to the challenge of dementia and women, arguing from a global perspective that women face a ‘triple jeopardy’ as a result of the associated stigma attached to their age, gender and decline in cognitive functions. ILC-UK make a number of recommendations for improving outcomes and interventions for women, which include: 1. Dementia health policies and programmes should incorporate a gender dimension in their design, delivery and evaluation2. Gender should be included as a key health determinant in the promotion and disease prevention of dementia3. Dementia research at the regional, national and international level needs to be disaggregated by gender and age4. Women and men should be equally represented and involved at the micro and macro level of decision-making with regard to the development of health and social care policies and resource allocation as they pertain to dementia5. There is a need for greater interdisciplinary research incorporating the biological and social models of health for men and women to improve health interventions and outcomesDownload the full pdf report here��

Mechanisms of leukocyte lipid body formation and function in inflammation

An area of increasingly interest for the understanding of cell signaling are the spatio-temporal aspects of the different enzymes involved in lipid mediator generation (eicosanoid-forming enzymes, phospholipases and their regulatory kinases and phosphatases) and pools of lipid precursors. The compartmentalization of signaling components within discrete and dynamic sites in the cell is critical for specificity and efficiency of enzymatic reactions of phosphorilation, enzyme activation and function. We hypothesized that lipid bodies - inducible non-membrane bound cytoplasmic lipid domains - function as specialized intracellular sites of compartmentalization of signaling with major roles in lipid mediator formation within leukocytes engaged in inflammatory process. Over the past years substantial progresses have been made demonstrating that all enzymes involved in eicosanoid synthesis localize at lipid bodies and lipid bodies are distinct sites for eicosanoid generation. Here we will review our current knowledge on the mechanisms of formation and functions of lipid bodies pertinent to inflammation.

Omics meets hypothesis-driven research. Partnership for innovative discoveries in vascular biology and angiogenesis.

The emergence of omics technologies allowing the global analysis of a given biological or molecular system, rather than the study of its individual components, has revolutionized biomedical research, including cardiovascular medicine research in the past decade. These developments raised the prospect that classical, hypothesis-driven, single gene-based approaches may soon become obsolete. The experience accumulated so far, however, indicates that omic technologies only represent tools similar to those classically used by scientists in the past and nowadays, to make hypothesis and build models, with the main difference that they generate large amounts of unbiased information. Thus, omics and classical hypothesis-driven research are rather complementary approaches with the potential to effectively synergize to boost research in many fields, including cardiovascular medicine. In this article we discuss some general aspects of omics approaches, and review contributions in three areas of vascular biology, thrombosis and haemostasis, atherosclerosis and angiogenesis, in which omics approaches have already been applied (vasculomics).

Effects of Interviewer Experience on Components of Nonresponse in the European Social Survey

We analyze interviewer related nonresponse differences in face-to-face surveys distinguishing three types of interviewers: those who have previous experience with the same high standard cross-sectional survey ("experienced"), those who were chosen by the survey agency to complete refusal conversions ("seniors"), and usual interviewers. The nonresponse components are obtaining household contact, target person contact, and target person cooperation. In addition we examine if interviewer homogeneity with respect to these components is different across the three interviewer groups. Data come from the European Social Survey (ESS) contact forms from four countries which participated during the three rounds 2002/04/06 and used the same survey agency that in turn used to some extent the same interviewers. To analyze interviewer effects, we use discrete two-level models. We find some evidence of better performance by both senior and experienced interviewers and indications of greater homogeneity for nonresponse components, especially for those that contain room for improvement. Surprisingly, the senior interviewers do not outperform those experienced. We conclude that survey agencies should make more efforts to decrease the comparatively high interviewer turnover.

Inference about the number of contributors to a DNA mixture: Comparative analyses of a Bayesian network approach and the maximum allele count method.

In the forensic examination of DNA mixtures, the question of how to set the total number of contributors (N) presents a topic of ongoing interest. Part of the discussion gravitates around issues of bias, in particular when assessments of the number of contributors are not made prior to considering the genotypic configuration of potential donors. Further complication may stem from the observation that, in some cases, there may be numbers of contributors that are incompatible with the set of alleles seen in the profile of a mixed crime stain, given the genotype of a potential contributor. In such situations, procedures that take a single and fixed number contributors as their output can lead to inferential impasses. Assessing the number of contributors within a probabilistic framework can help avoiding such complication. Using elements of decision theory, this paper analyses two strategies for inference on the number of contributors. One procedure is deterministic and focuses on the minimum number of contributors required to 'explain' an observed set of alleles. The other procedure is probabilistic using Bayes' theorem and provides a probability distribution for a set of numbers of contributors, based on the set of observed alleles as well as their respective rates of occurrence. The discussion concentrates on mixed stains of varying quality (i.e., different numbers of loci for which genotyping information is available). A so-called qualitative interpretation is pursued since quantitative information such as peak area and height data are not taken into account. The competing procedures are compared using a standard scoring rule that penalizes the degree of divergence between a given agreed value for N, that is the number of contributors, and the actual value taken by N. Using only modest assumptions and a discussion with reference to a casework example, this paper reports on analyses using simulation techniques and graphical models (i.e., Bayesian networks) to point out that setting the number of contributors to a mixed crime stain in probabilistic terms is, for the conditions assumed in this study, preferable to a decision policy that uses categoric assumptions about N.

Antitumour effects of single or combined monoclonal antibodies directed against membrane antigens expressed by human B cells leukaemia.

Background: The increasing availability of different monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) opens the way to more specific biologic therapy of cancer patients. However, despite the significant success of therapy in breast and ovarian carcinomas with anti-HER2 mAbs as well as in non-Hodkin B cell lymphomas with anti-CD20 mAbs, certain B cell malignancies such as B chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (B-CLL) respond poorly to anti-CD20 mAb, due to the low surface expression of this molecule. Thus, new mAbs adapted to each types of tumour will help to develop personalised mAb treatment. To this aim, we analyse the biological and therapeutic properties of three mAbs directed against the CD5, CD71 or HLA-DR molecules highly expressed on B-CLL cells. Results: The three mAbs, after purification and radiolabelling demonstrated high and specific binding capacity to various human leukaemia target cells. Further in vitro analysis showed that mAb anti-CD5 induced neither growth inhibition nor apoptosis, mAb anti-CD71 induced proliferation inhibition with no early sign of cell death and mAb anti-HLA-DR induced specific cell aggregation, but without evidence of apoptosis. All three mAbs induced various degrees of ADCC by NK cells, as well as phagocytosis by macrophages. Only the anti-HLA-DR mAb induced complement mediated lysis. Coincubation of different pairs of mAbs did not significantly modify the in vitro results. In contrast with these discrete and heterogeneous in vitro effects, in vivo the three mAbs demonstrated marked anti-tumour efficacy and prolongation of mice survival in two models of SCID mice, grafted either intraperitoneally or intravenously with the CD5 transfected JOK1-5.3 cells. This cell line was derived from a human hairy cell leukaemia, a type of malignancy known to have very similar biological properties as the B-CLL, whose cells constitutively express CD5. Interestingly, the combined injection of anti-CD5 with anti-HLA-DR or with anti-CD71 led to longer mouse survival, as compared to single mAb injection, up to complete inhibition of tumour growth in 100% mice treated with both anti-HLA-DR and anti-CD5. Conclusions: Altogether these data suggest that the combined use of two mAbs, such as anti-HLA-DR and anti-CD5, may significantly enhance their therapeutic potential.

Accuracy of mucocutaneous leishmaniasis diagnosis using polymerase chain reaction: systematic literature review and meta-analysis

The diagnosis of mucocutaneous leishmaniasis (MCL) is hampered by the absence of a gold standard. An accurate diagnosis is essential because of the high toxicity of the medications for the disease. This study aimed to assess the ability of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to identify MCL and to compare these results with clinical research recently published by the authors. A systematic literature review based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses: the PRISMA Statement was performed using comprehensive search criteria and communication with the authors. A meta-analysis considering the estimates of the univariate and bivariate models was performed. Specificity near 100% was common among the papers. The primary reason for accuracy differences was sensitivity. The meta-analysis, which was only possible for PCR samples of lesion fragments, revealed a sensitivity of 71% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.59; 0.81] and a specificity of 93% (95% CI = 0.83; 0.98) in the bivariate model. The search for measures that could increase the sensitivity of PCR should be encouraged. The quality of the collected material and the optimisation of the amplification of genetic material should be prioritised.