How well does the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System predict blocking?

Forecasting atmospheric blocking is one of the main problems facing medium-range weather forecasters in the extratropics. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) provides an excellent basis for medium-range forecasting as it provides a number of different possible realizations of the meteorological future. This ensemble of forecasts attempts to account for uncertainties in both the initial conditions and the model formulation. Since 18 July 2000, routine output from the EPS has included the field of potential temperature on the potential vorticity (PV) D 2 PV units (PVU) surface, the dynamical tropopause. This has enabled the objective identification of blocking using an index based on the reversal of the meridional potential-temperature gradient. A year of EPS probability forecasts of Euro-Atlantic and Pacific blocking have been produced and are assessed in this paper, concentrating on the Euro-Atlantic sector. Standard verification techniques such as Brier scores, Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and reliability diagrams are used. It is shown that Euro-Atlantic sector-blocking forecasts are skilful relative to climatology out to 10 days, and are more skilful than the deterministic control forecast at all lead times. The EPS is also more skilful than a probabilistic version of this deterministic forecast, though the difference is smaller. In addition, it is shown that the onset of a sector-blocking episode is less well predicted than its decay. As the lead time increases, the probability forecasts tend towards a model climatology with slightly less blocking than is seen in the real atmosphere. This small under-forecasting bias in the blocking forecasts is possibly related to a westerly bias in the ECMWF model. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society

Radiative forcing since preindustrial times due to ozone change in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere

Changes in atmospheric ozone have occurred since the preindustrial era as a result of increasing anthropogenic emissions. Within ACCENT, a European Network of Excellence, ozone changes between 1850 and 2000 are assessed for the troposphere and the lower stratosphere ( up to 30 km) by a variety of seven chemistry-climate models and three chemical transport models. The modeled ozone changes are taken as input for detailed calculations of radiative forcing. When only changes in chemistry are considered ( constant climate) the modeled global-mean tropospheric ozone column increase since preindustrial times ranges from 7.9 DU to 13.8 DU among the ten participating models, while the stratospheric column reduction lies between 14.1 DU and 28.6 DU in the models considering stratospheric chemistry. The resulting radiative forcing is strongly dependent on the location and altitude of the modeled ozone change and varies between 0.25 Wm(-2) and 0.45 Wm(-2) due to ozone change in the troposphere and - 0.123 Wm(-2) and + 0.066 Wm(-2) due to the stratospheric ozone change. Changes in ozone and other greenhouse gases since preindustrial times have altered climate. Six out of the ten participating models have performed an additional calculation taking into account both chemical and climate change. In most models the isolated effect of climate change is an enhancement of the tropospheric ozone column increase, while the stratospheric reduction becomes slightly less severe. In the three climate-chemistry models with detailed tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry the inclusion of climate change increases the resulting radiative forcing due to tropospheric ozone change by up to 0.10 Wm(-2), while the radiative forcing due to stratospheric ozone change is reduced by up to 0.034 Wm(-2). Considering tropospheric and stratospheric change combined, the total ozone column change is negative while the resulting net radiative forcing is positive.

Ambient solar wind's effect on ICME transit times

Most empirical and numerical models of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) propagation use the initial CME velocity as their primary, if not only, observational input. These models generally predict a wide spread of 1 AU transit times for ICMEs with the same initial velocity. We use a 3D coupled MHD model of the corona and heliosphere to determine the ambient solar wind's effect on the propagation of ICMEs from 30 solar radii to 1 AU. We quantitatively characterize this deceleration by the velocity of the upstream ambient solar wind. The effects of varying solar wind parameters on the ICME transit time are quantified and can explain the observed spread in transit times for ICMEs of the same initial velocity. We develop an adjustment formula that can be used in conjunction with other models to reduce the spread in predicted transit times of Earth-directed ICMEs.

On the fast decay of Agulhas rings

The Indian Ocean water that ends up in the Atlantic Ocean detaches from the Agulhas Current retroflection predominantly in the form of Agulhas rings and cyclones. Using numerical Lagrangian float trajectories in a high-resolution numerical ocean model, the fate of coherent structures near the Agulhas Current retroflection is investigated. It is shown that within the Agulhas Current, upstream of the retroflection, the spatial distributions of floats ending in the Atlantic Ocean and floats ending in the Indian Ocean are to a large extent similar. This indicates that Agulhas leakage occurs mostly through the detachment of Agulhas rings. After the floats detach from the Agulhas Current, the ambient water quickly looses its relative vorticity. The Agulhas rings thus seem to decay and loose much of their water in the Cape Basin. A cluster analysis reveals that most water in the Agulhas Current is within clusters of 180 km in diameter. Halfway in the Cape Basin there is an increase in the number of larger clusters with low relative vorticity, which carry the bulk of the Agulhas leakage transport through the Cape Basin. This upward cascade with respect to the length scales of the leakage, in combination with a power law decay of the magnitude of relative vorticity, might be an indication that the decay of Agulhas rings is somewhat comparable to the decay of two-dimensional turbulence.

A parametric model for the interval censored survival times of Acacia mangium plantation in a spacing trial

Survival times for the Acacia mangium plantation in the Segaliud Lokan Project, Sabah, East Malaysia were analysed based on 20 permanent sample plots (PSPs) established in 1988 as a spacing experiment. The PSPs were established following a complete randomized block design with five levels of spacing randomly assigned to units within four blocks at different sites. The survival times of trees in years are of interest. Since the inventories were only conducted annually, the actual survival time for each tree was not observed. Hence, the data set comprises censored survival times. Initial analysis of the survival of the Acacia mangium plantation suggested there is block by spacing interaction; a Weibull model gives a reasonable fit to the replicate survival times within each PSP; but a standard Weibull regression model is inappropriate because the shape parameter differs between PSPs. In this paper we investigate the form of the non-constant Weibull shape parameter. Parsimonious models for the Weibull survival times have been derived using maximum likelihood methods. The factor selection for the parameters is based on a backward elimination procedure. The models are compared using likelihood ratio statistics. The results suggest that both Weibull parameters depend on spacing and block.

Interactions of decay-accelerating factor (DAF) with haemagglutinating human enteroviruses: utilizing variation in primate DAF to map virus binding sites

A cellular receptor for the haemagglutinating enteroviruses (HEV), and the protein that mediates haemagglutination, is the membrane complement regulatory protein decay accelerating factor (DAF; CD55). Although primate DAF is highly conserved, significant differences exist to enable cell lines derived from primates to be utilized for the characterization of the DAF binding phenotype of human enteroviruses. Thus, several distinct DAF-binding phenotypes of a selection of HEVs (viz. coxsackievirus A21 and echoviruses 6, 7, 11-13, 29) were identified from binding and infection assays using a panel of primate cells derived from human, orang-utan, African Green monkey and baboon tissues. These studies complement our recent determination of the crystal structure of SCR(34) of human DAF [Williams, P., Chaudhry, Y., Goodfellow, I. G., Billington, J., Powell, R., Spiller, O. B., Evans, D. J. & Lea, S. (2003). J Biol Chem 278, 10691-10696] and have enabled us to better map the regions of DAF with which enteroviruses interact and, in certain cases, predict specific virus-receptor contacts.

The structure of echovirus type 12 bound to a two-domain fragment of its cellular attachment protein decay-accelerating factor (CD 55)

Echovirus type 12 (EV12), an enterovirus of the Picornaviridae family, uses the complement regulator, decay-accelerating factor (DAF, CD55) as a cellular receptor. We have calculated a three-dimensional reconstruction of EV12 bound to a fragment of DAF, consisting of short consensus repeat domains 3 and 4, from cryo-negative stain electron microscopy data (EMD #1057). This shows that, as for an earlier reconstruction of the related echovirus type 7 bound to DAF, attachment is not within the viral canyon but occurs close to the two-fold symmetry axes. Despite this general similarity, our reconstruction reveals a receptor interaction that is quite different from that observed for EV7. Fitting of the crystallographic co-ordinates for DAF34 and EV11 into the reconstruction shows a close agreement between the crystal structure of the receptor fragment and the density for the virus-bound receptor, allowing unambiguous positioning of the receptor with respect to the virion (PDB #1UPN). Our finding that the mode of virus-receptor interaction in EV12 is distinct from that seen for EV7 raises interesting questions regarding the evolution and biological significance of the DAF-binding phenotype in these viruses.

Dung and nest surveys: estimating decay rates

1. Wildlife managers often require estimates of abundance. Direct methods of estimation are often impractical, especially in closed-forest environments, so indirect methods such as dung or nest surveys are increasingly popular. 2. Dung and nest surveys typically have three elements: surveys to estimate abundance of the dung or nests; experiments to estimate the production (defecation or nest construction) rate; and experiments to estimate the decay or disappearance rate. The last of these is usually the most problematic, and was the subject of this study. 3. The design of experiments to allow robust estimation of mean time to decay was addressed. In most studies to date, dung or nests have been monitored until they disappear. Instead, we advocate that fresh dung or nests are located, with a single follow-up visit to establish whether the dung or nest is still present or has decayed. 4. Logistic regression was used to estimate probability of decay as a function of time, and possibly of other covariates. Mean time to decay was estimated from this function. 5. Synthesis and applications. Effective management of mammal populations usually requires reliable abundance estimates. The difficulty in estimating abundance of mammals in forest environments has increasingly led to the use of indirect survey methods, in which abundance of sign, usually dung (e.g. deer, antelope and elephants) or nests (e.g. apes), is estimated. Given estimated rates of sign production and decay, sign abundance estimates can be converted to estimates of animal abundance. Decay rates typically vary according to season, weather, habitat, diet and many other factors, making reliable estimation of mean time to decay of signs present at the time of the survey problematic. We emphasize the need for retrospective rather than prospective rates, propose a strategy for survey design, and provide analysis methods for estimating retrospective rates.

Coxsackievirus B3-associated myocardial pathology and viral load reduced by recombinant soluble human decay-accelerating factor in mice

Coxsackievirus B3 (CVB3) infection can result in myocarditis, which in turn may lead to a protracted immune response and subsequent dilated cardiomyopathy. Human decay-accelerating factor (DAF), a binding receptor for CVB3, was synthesized as a soluble IgG1-Fc fusion protein (DAF-Fc). In vitro, DAF-Fc was able to inhibit complement activity and block infection by CVB3, although blockade of infection varied widely among strains of CVB3. To determine the effects of DAF-Fc in vivo, 40 adolescent A/J mice were infected with a myopathic strain of CVB3 and given DAF-Fc treatment 3 days before infection, during infection, or 3 days after infection; the mice were compared with virus alone and sham-infected animals. Sections of heart, spleen, kidney, pancreas, and liver were stained with hematoxylin and eosin and submitted to in situ hybridization for both positive-strand and negative-strand viral RNA to determine the extent of myocarditis and viral infection, respectively. Salient histopathologic features, including myocardial lesion area, cell death, calcification and inflammatory cell infiltration, pancreatitis, and hepatitis were scored without knowledge of the experimental groups. DAF-Fc treatment of mice either preceding or concurrent with CVB3 infection resulted in a significant decrease in myocardial lesion area and cell death and a reduction in the presence of viral RNA. All DAF-Fc treatment groups had reduced infectious CVB3 recoverable from the heart after infection. DAF-Fc may be a novel therapeutic agent for active myocarditis and acute dilated cardiomyopathy if given early in the infectious period, although more studies are needed to determine its mechanism and efficacy.