Current account balance cyclicality

We assess the cyclicality of current account balances for the period 2001Q1-2014Q4, focussing on Portugal and in Germany, as a benchmark. We find that the cyclical component of the current account was positively explained by 3-months Euribor, but negatively by the financial crisis, systemic stress in Europe, employment and compensation of employees. Moreover, the non-cyclical current account was positively affected by the period of the Economic and Financial Adjustment Program and the terms of trade, but negatively influenced by financial integration.

Timing and economic value of mergers and acquisitions

Doctor of Philosophy in the Faculty of Business Administration

Essays on labor economics.

Doctor of Philosophy in subject of Economics

Estudo de modelos composicionais de óleo na injeção contínua de vapor

The objective of the thermal recovery is to heat the resevoir and the oil in it to increase its recovery. In the Potiguar river basin there are located several heavy oil reservoirs whose primary recovery energy provides us with a little oil flow, which makes these reservoirs great candidates for application of a method of recovery advanced of the oil, especially the thermal. The steam injection can occur on a cyclical or continuous manner. The continuous steam injection occurs through injection wells, which in its vicinity form a zone of steam that expands itself, having as a consequence the displace of the oil with viscosity and mobility improved towards the producing wells. Another possible mechanism of displacement of oil in reservoirs subjected to continuous injection of steam is the distillation of oil by steam, which at high temperatures; their lighter fractions can be vaporized by changing the composition of the oil produced, of the oil residual or to shatter in the amount of oil produced. In this context, this paper aims to study the influence of compositional models in the continuous injection of steam through in the analysis of some parameters such as flow injection steam and temperature of injection. Were made various leading comparative analysis taking the various models of fluid, varying from a good elementary, with 03 pseudocomponents to a modeling of fluids with increasing numbers of pseudocomponents. A commercial numerical simulator was used for the study from a homogeneous reservoir model with similar features to those found in northeastern Brazil. Some conclusions as the increasing of the simulation time with increasing number of pseudocomponents, the significant influence of flow injection on cumulative production of oil and little influence of the number of pseudocomponents in the flows and cumulative production of oil were found

Do increases in oil prices precede U.S. recessions?

This thesis examines the relationship between oil prices and economic activity, and it attempts to address the question: do increases in oil prices (oil shocks) precede U.S. recessions? This paper also applied macroeconomics, either through the direct use of a macroeconomic point of view or using a combination of mathematical and statistical models. Two mathematical and statistical models are used to determine the ability of oil prices to predict recessions in the United States. First, using the binary cyclical (Bry-Boschan method) indicator procedure to test the turning point of oil prices compared with turning points in GDP finds that oil prices almost always turn five month before a recession, suggesting that an oil shock might occur before a recession. Second, the Granger causality test shows that oil prices change do Granger cause U.S. recessions, indicating that oil prices are a useful signal to indicate a U.S. recession. Finally, combining this analysis with the literature, there are several potential explanations that the spike in oil prices result in slower GDP growth and are a contributing factor to U.S. recessions.

Foreign Direct Investment in Central and Eastern Europe:post-crisis perspectives

This book examines how foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to Central and Eastern Europe have changed after the Great Recession. It argues that beyond their cyclical effects, the economic crisis and the changing competitiveness of Central and Eastern European countries have had structural impacts on FDI in the region. FDI has traditionally been viewed as the key driver of national development, but the apparent structural shift means that focusing on cheap labour as a competitive advantage is no longer a viable strategy for the countries in the region. The authors argue that these countries need to move beyond the narrative of upgrading (attracting FDI inflows with increasingly higher value added), and focus on ensuring greater value capture instead. A potential way for doing this is by developing the conditions in which innovative national companies can emerge, thrive and eventually develop into lead firms of global value chains. The book provides readers with a highly informative account of the reasons why this shift is necessary, as well as diverse perspectives and extensive discussions on the dynamics and structural impacts of FDI in post-crisis Central and Eastern Europe.

A critical search for the ‘self’ in adult education: Bourdieuian insights into transformative possibilities

This study investigates the ‘self’ of six Irish working-class women, all parenting alone and all returned to the field of adult education. Bourdieu’s concepts of habitus, field and capital are the backdrop for the study of the ‘self’, which is viewed through his lens. This study commenced in September 2012 and concluded in August 2014, in a small urban educational setting in an Irish city. All of the women in the study are single parents, most of them did not complete second level education, and none of them had experienced adult or third level education. Their ages vary from 30 to 55 years. The study pursues the women’s motivations for returning to education, the challenges they faced throughout the journey, and their experiences, views and perspectives of Adult Education. The methodology chosen for this research is critical eethnography, and as an emerging ethnographer, I was able to view the phenomena from both an emic (inside) and an etic (outside) perspective. The critically oriented approach is a branch of qualitative research. It is a holistic and humanistic approach that is cyclical and reflective. The critical ethnographic case studies that developed are theoretically framed in critical theory and critical pedagogy. The data is collected from classroom observations (recorded in a journal) and interviews (both individual and group). The women's life experiences inform their sense of self and their capital reserves derive from their experience of habitus. It also attempts to understand the delivery of the programmes and how it can impact the journey of the adult learners. The analysis of the interviews, observations, field notes and reflective journals demonstrate what the women have to say about their new journey in adult education. This crucial information informs best practice for adult education programmes. This study also considers the complexity of habitus and the many forms of capital. The theme of adults returning to education and their disposition to this is one of the major themes of this study. Findings reflect this uncertainty but also underline how the women unshackled themselves of some of the constraints of a restricted view of self. Witnessing this new habitus forming was the core of their transformational possibility becoming real. The study provides a unique contribution to knowledge as it utilises Bourdieuian concepts and theories, not only as theoretical tools but as conceptual tools for analysis. The study examined transformative pedagogy in the field of adult education and it offers important recommendations for future policy and practice.

Trastornos gastrointestinales funcionales en menores de dos años: prevalencia y factores asociados en una IPS Bogotá 2015 - 2016

Antecedentes: Los trastornos gastrointestinales funcionales de la infancia (TGFI) son manifestaciones gastrointestinales crónicas en cualquier parte del tubo digestivo sin daño estructural o bioquímico los cuales se pueden clasificar según los criterios de ROMA III. Se desconoce su prevalencia en niños latinoamericanos menores de 4 años. Objetivos: Estimar la prevalencia de los TGFI y cada una de sus entidades en menores de 2 años y explorar sus factores asociados. Metodología: Estudio corte trasversal con muestra aleatoria (n=323) tomada de la población de una institución de salud en la ciudad de Bogotá, realizando mediante encuesta diligenciada por los padres. El análisis se realizó por medio del software SPSS© utilizando estadística descriptiva y análisis bivariado, como medida de asociación se calculó las Razones de Disparidad (RD) con IC95%. Resultados: Se encontró una prevalencia de TGFI de 22.1%, diarrea funcional 14.6%, disquecia 12%, regurgitación 9.2%, estreñimiento 3.3%, vómito cíclico 2%, cólico infantil 1.6% y rumiación 0%. La administración de tetero durante la estancia hospitalaria neonatal se asocia con vómito cíclico RD= 6 IC 95% (1.076 – 33.447) p=0.021. La administración de formula infantil durante los primeros 6 meses de vida se asocia con diarrea funcional RD= 0.348 IC 95% (0.149 – 0.813) p=0.012 Conclusiónes: Los TGFI son una causa frecuente de molestias en los menores de 2 años de edad. Sugerimos realizar la validación del cuestionario “questionnaire on infant/toddler gastrointestinal symptoms rome version III” con el fin de mejorar la validez y precisión de los hallazgos en estudios futuros.

Quick concrete

QUICK CONCRETE es un emprendimiento el cual se planteó como una empresa prestadora de servicios en el sector de la construcción en la ciudad de Ibagué, Colombia. Con ayuda de empresas ya reconocidas a nivel regional como lo son: la distribuidora de materiales y ferretería La Española, A&C y la ladrillera Ladrillos Roma. Se espera impactar en el mercado con un método diferente y un precio competitivo de servicio. El mayor impulso de la construcción puede estar asociado a una mayor demanda de vivienda por parte de ciudadanos bogotanos que ven en Ibagué una posibilidad rentable para invertir en vivienda, así como también el crecimiento del comercio que requiere la construcción de centros comerciales y el programa de viviendas de interés social del Gobierno que benefició a Ibague. Sin embargo, este es una actividad bastante cíclica y con una alta rotación de trabajadores.

Armazenamento sazonal de energia solar térmica de baixa temperatura para climatização de edifícios

Face aos padrões atuais de vida, em que despendemos a maior parte do nosso tempo no interior de edifícios, com um nível de conforto que ninguém quer abdicar, urge o desenvolvimento de tecnologias de climatização sustentáveis. Devido a uma combinação única de fatores, casas de baixo consumo de energia (e também casas passivas) em Portugal, são particularmente adequadas de explorar as vantagens da energia solar térmica, especialmente quando combinado com armazenamento sazonal de energia. No entanto nenhum exemplo documentado existe de como esta sinergia pode ser explorada com sucesso em Portugal, ilustrando assim o modo em que a necessidade de aquecimento pode ser colmatada de uma forma sustentável sem o uso de combustíveis fósseis. A energia solar é uma excelente alternativa de fonte de energia para aquecimento de edifícios. Um principal fator que limita a sua aplicação é que é uma fonte de energia com uma disponibilidade média de variação cíclica. O uso de armazenamento sazonal de energia pode reduzir substancialmente o custo do sistema solar que é capaz de fornecer até 100% das necessidades energéticas dos edifícios. Estes sistemas são projetados para armazenar a energia solar durante o verão e reter o calor armazenado para posterior utilização durante o inverno; Abstract: SEASONAL SOLAR THERMAL ENERGY STORAGE FOR LOW TEMPERATURE HEATING BUILDINGS. Given the current standards of living, where we spent most of our time inside buildings, with a level of Comfort that no one wants to give up, urges the development of sustainable climate control technologies. Due to a unique combination of factors, low energy (and also passive) houses in Portugal are particularly well suited to exploiting the advantages of solar thermal energy especially when combined with seasonal energy storage. However no documented example there of how this synergy can be exploited successfully in Portugal, illustrating the way in which the need for heating can be addressed in a sustainable manner without the use of fossil fuels. Solar energy is an important alternative energy source for heating applications. One main factor that limits its application is that it is an energy source with an average availability of cyclical variation. The use of seasonal thermal energy storage can substantially reduce the cost of solar energy systems that can supply up to 100% of buildings energy needs. Such systems are designed to collect solar energy during the summer and retain the stored heat for use during the winter.