Evaluation of farm-level parameters derived from animal movements for use in risk-based surveillance programmes of cattle in Switzerland

BACKGROUND: This study focused on the descriptive analysis of cattle movements and farm-level parameters derived from cattle movements, which are considered to be generically suitable for risk-based surveillance systems in Switzerland for diseases where animal movements constitute an important risk pathway. METHODS: A framework was developed to select farms for surveillance based on a risk score summarizing 5 parameters. The proposed framework was validated using data from the bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) surveillance programme in 2013. RESULTS: A cumulative score was calculated per farm, including the following parameters; the maximum monthly ingoing contact chain (in 2012), the average number of animals per incoming movement, use of mixed alpine pastures and the number of weeks in 2012 a farm had movements registered. The final score for the farm depended on the distribution of the parameters. Different cut offs; 50, 90, 95 and 99%, were explored. The final scores ranged between 0 and 5. Validation of the scores against results from the BVD surveillance programme 2013 gave promising results for setting the cut off for each of the five selected farm level criteria at the 50th percentile. Restricting testing to farms with a score ≥ 2 would have resulted in the same number of detected BVD positive farms as testing all farms, i.e., the outcome of the 2013 surveillance programme could have been reached with a smaller survey. CONCLUSIONS: The seasonality and time dependency of the activity of single farms in the networks requires a careful assessment of the actual time period included to determine farm level criteria. However, selecting farms in the sample for risk-based surveillance can be optimized with the proposed scoring system. The system was validated using data from the BVD eradication program. The proposed method is a promising framework for the selection of farms according to the risk of infection based on animal movements.

Mean dynamic topography and oceanographic parameters estimated from an inverse model and satellite geodesy, with link to model result in one single NetCDF file (392 MB), including the inverse data error covariance

Geostrophic surface velocities can be derived from the gradients of the mean dynamic topography-the difference between the mean sea surface and the geoid. Therefore, independently observed mean dynamic topography data are valuable input parameters and constraints for ocean circulation models. For a successful fit to observational dynamic topography data, not only the mean dynamic topography on the particular ocean model grid is required, but also information about its inverse covariance matrix. The calculation of the mean dynamic topography from satellite-based gravity field models and altimetric sea surface height measurements, however, is not straightforward. For this purpose, we previously developed an integrated approach to combining these two different observation groups in a consistent way without using the common filter approaches (Becker et al. in J Geodyn 59(60):99-110, 2012, doi:10.1016/j.jog.2011.07.0069; Becker in Konsistente Kombination von Schwerefeld, Altimetrie und hydrographischen Daten zur Modellierung der dynamischen Ozeantopographie, 2012, http://nbn-resolving.de/nbn:de:hbz:5n-29199). Within this combination method, the full spectral range of the observations is considered. Further, it allows the direct determination of the normal equations (i.e., the inverse of the error covariance matrix) of the mean dynamic topography on arbitrary grids, which is one of the requirements for ocean data assimilation. In this paper, we report progress through selection and improved processing of altimetric data sets. We focus on the preprocessing steps of along-track altimetry data from Jason-1 and Envisat to obtain a mean sea surface profile. During this procedure, a rigorous variance propagation is accomplished, so that, for the first time, the full covariance matrix of the mean sea surface is available. The combination of the mean profile and a combined GRACE/GOCE gravity field model yields a mean dynamic topography model for the North Atlantic Ocean that is characterized by a defined set of assumptions. We show that including the geodetically derived mean dynamic topography with the full error structure in a 3D stationary inverse ocean model improves modeled oceanographic features over previous estimates.

Petrological parameters of sands and sandstones from DSDP and ODP holes in arc-related areas

Detrital modes for 524 deep-marine sand and sandstone samples recovered on circum-Pacific, Caribbean, and Mediterranean legs of the Deep Sea Drilling Project and the Ocean Drilling Program form the basis for an actualistic model for arc-related provenance. This model refines the Dickinson and Suczek (1979) and Dickinson and others (1983) models and can be used to interpret the provenance/tectonic history of ancient arc-related sedimentary sequences. Four provenance groups are defined using QFL, QmKP, LmLvLs, and LvfLvmiLvl ternary plots of site means: (1) intraoceanic arc and remnant arc, (2) continental arc, (3) triple junction, and (4) strike-slip-continental arc. Intraoceanic- and remnant-arc sands are poor in quartz (mean QFL%Q < 5) and rich in lithics (QFL%L > 75); they are predominantly composed of plagioclase feldspar and volcanic lithic fragments. Continental-arc sand can be more quartzofeldspathic than the intraoceanic- and remnant-arc sand (mean QFL%Q values as much as 10, mean QFL%F values as much as 65, and mean QmKP%Qm as much as 20) and has more variable lithic populations, with minor metamorphic and sedimentary components. The triple-junction and strike-slip-continental groups compositionally overlap; both are more quartzofeldspathic than the other groups and show highly variable lithic proportions, but the strike-slip-continental group is more quartzose. Modal compositions of the triple junction group roughly correlate with the QFL transitional-arc field of Dickinson and others (1983), whereas the strike-slip-continental group approximately correlates with their dissected-arc field.

Parameters of population dynamics and energetics of ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi in Sevastopol Bay from January 1995 to March 1996

Population dynamics of abundance and biomass were studied and specific production of population of ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi was estimated in the Sevastopol Bay from January 1995 to March 1996. The ctenophores achieved maximum abundance and biomass in July during period of intensive reproduction. Young specimens (<5 mm) contributed during that period as much as 50-87% to total abundance of population. Annually averaged daily specific growth rate was 0.039. Growth, food consumption, and rate of filtration were measured in a laboratory under two concentrations of food (Acartia clausi and Moina micrura: 60 and 100 specimens per liter, 0.35 and 0.60 mg wet weight/l). Both concentrations sustained growth of animals with dry weight less than 20 mg. However these concentrations were insufficient to sustain growth of larger ctenophores. Specific growth rate of the ctenophores with dry weight <20 mg under favorable food conditions was 0.20-0.30 l/day. Specific growth rate of the ctenophores in the Sevastopol Bay never exceeded 0.093 l/day, mean biomass of fodder zooplankton in the bay being 90 mg/m**3 in terms of wet weight. Hence a conclusion was made that population of M. leidyi in the bay was limited by lack of food.