Eliciting and encoding expert knowledge on variable selection into classical or Bayesian species distribution models

The quality of species distribution models (SDMs) relies to a large degree on the quality of the input data, from bioclimatic indices to environmental and habitat descriptors (Austin, 2002). Recent reviews of SDM techniques, have sought to optimize predictive performance e.g. Elith et al., 2006. In general SDMs employ one of three approaches to variable selection. The simplest approach relies on the expert to select the variables, as in environmental niche models Nix, 1986 or a generalized linear model without variable selection (Miller and Franklin, 2002). A second approach explicitly incorporates variable selection into model fitting, which allows examination of particular combinations of variables. Examples include generalized linear or additive models with variable selection (Hastie et al. 2002); or classification trees with complexity or model based pruning (Breiman et al., 1984, Zeileis, 2008). A third approach uses model averaging, to summarize the overall contribution of a variable, without considering particular combinations. Examples include neural networks, boosted or bagged regression trees and Maximum Entropy as compared in Elith et al. 2006. Typically, users of SDMs will either consider a small number of variable sets, via the first approach, or else supply all of the candidate variables (often numbering more than a hundred) to the second or third approaches. Bayesian SDMs exist, with several methods for eliciting and encoding priors on model parameters (see review in Low Choy et al. 2010). However few methods have been published for informative variable selection; one example is Bayesian trees (O’Leary 2008). Here we report an elicitation protocol that helps makes explicit a priori expert judgements on the quality of candidate variables. This protocol can be flexibly applied to any of the three approaches to variable selection, described above, Bayesian or otherwise. We demonstrate how this information can be obtained then used to guide variable selection in classical or machine learning SDMs, or to define priors within Bayesian SDMs.

Controlled exposure as a management tool for Glassers disease

Control of bacterial disease of pigs.

Musculoskeletal disorders and psychosocial factors at work : Effects of a participatory ergonomics intervention in a cluster randomized controlled trial

This study examined the efficacy of a participatory ergonomics intervention in preventing musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) and changing unsatisfactory psychosocial working conditions among municipal kitchen workers. The occurrence of multiple-site musculoskeletal pain (MSP) and associations between MSP and psychosocial factors at work over time were studied secondarily. A cluster randomized controlled trial was conducted during 2002-2005 in 119 municipal kitchens with 504 workers. The kitchens were randomized to an intervention (n = 59) and control (n = 60) group. The intervention lasted 11 to 14 months. The workers identified strenuous work tasks and sought solutions for decreasing physical and mental workload. The main outcomes were the occurrence of and trouble caused by musculoskeletal pain in seven anatomical sites, local musculoskeletal fatigue after work, and musculoskeletal sick leaves. Psychosocial factors at work (job control, skill discretion, co-worker relationships, supervisor support, mental strenuousness of work, hurry, job satisfaction) and mental stress were studied as intermediate outcomes of the intervention. Questionnaire data were collected at three months intervals during the intervention and the one-year post-intervention follow-up. Response rates varied between 92 % and 99 %. In total, 402 ergonomic changes were implemented. In the control group, 80 changes were spontaneously implemented within normal activity. The intervention did not reduce perceived physical workload and no systematic differences in any health outcomes were found between the intervention and control groups during the intervention or during the one-year follow-up. The results suggest that the intervention as studied in the present trial was not more effective in reducing perceived physical workload or preventing MSDs compared with no such intervention. Little previous evidence of the effectiveness of ergonomics interventions in preventing MSDs exists. The effects on psychosocial factors at work were adverse, especially in the two of the participating cities where re-organization of foodservices timed simultaneously with the intervention. If organizational reforms at workplace are expected to occur, the execution of other workplace interventions at the same time should be avoided. The co-occurrence of musculoskeletal pain at several sites is observed to be more common than pain at single anatomical sites. However, the risk factors of MSP are largely unknown. This study showed that at baseline, 73 % of the women reported pain in at least two, 36 % in four or more, and 10 % in six to seven sites. The seven pain symptoms occurred in over 80 different combinations. When co-occurrence of pain was studied in three larger anatomical areas (neck/low back, upper limbs, lower limbs), concurrent pain in all three areas was the most common combination (36 %). The 3-month prevalence of MSP (≥ 3 of seven sites) varied between 50 % and 61 % during the two-year follow-up period. Psychosocial factors at work and mental stress were strong predictors for MSP over time and, vice versa, MSP predicted psychosocial factors at work and mental stress. The reciprocality of the relationships implies either two mutually dependent processes in time, or some shared common underlying factor(s).

Porous silica-based nanocapsules for targeted and controlled release of biocides

Develops a new technology for the delivery of biocides against agricultural pests, with biocides contained within silica nanocapsules which are themselves protected by an outer envelope, capable of being selectively broken down by the target pest. Will reduce the amount of biocide escaping into the environment, prolong the life of the biocide, reduce biocide usage rates, and reduce undesirable effects on non-target organisms.

Geochemistry of meta-anorthosites from Holénarasipur, Karnataka, South India

Geochemical and Rb---Sr isotope studies indicate that the meta-anorthosites of Holénarasipur, occurring as minor differentiates in ultramafic-mafic complex are igneous intrusives with cumulus character, emplaced around 3095 m.y. ago. The fine-grained nature is secondary; relict cumulus features are preserved in less deformed bodies. In major element chemistry, they compare well with other Archean anorthosites. Abundance levels of Ti, Zr, Y and P indicate the evolution through crystal fractionation of a parental magma; cumulus olivine and pyroxenes dominated chemistry for ultramafites, cumulus plagioclase and possibly clinopyroxene controlled chemistry for anorthosite-gabbros and cumulus magnetite in magnetite-gabbros. Magnetite is not an early cumulate. REE geochemistry is dominated by plagioclase with low abundance levels, slightly LREE enriched and variable positive Eu anomaly. Sr and Image values vary with An content in plagioclase. Isotopic studies show low initial Image (=0.7016) indicating that Rb---Sr isochron age represents the time of intrusion rather than the time of metamorphism.

Carbon grazing: Managing carbon flows for resilient pasture in variable climate

Work with consultants to help graziers understand implications of carbon in their pastures.

CRC30032 Enhancing surveillance with remotely controlled aircraft

Detecting spores with UAV.

Economic evaluation of precision controlled traffic farming in the Australian sugar industry: a case study of an early adopter

Controlled traffic has been identified as the most practical method of reducing compaction-related soil structural degradation in the Australian sugarcane industry. GPS auto-steer systems are required to maximize this potential. Unfortunately there is a perception that little economic gain will result from investing in this technology. Regardless, a number of growers have made the investment and are reaping substantial economic and lifestyle rewards. In this paper we assess the cost effectiveness of installing GPS guidance and using it to implement Precision Controlled Traffic Farming (PCTF) based on the experience of an early adopter. The Farm Economic Analysis Tool (FEAT) model was used with data provided by the grower to demonstrate the benefits of implementing PCTF. The results clearly show that a farming system based on PCTF and the minimum tillage improved farm gross margin by 11.8% and reduced fuel usage by 58%, compared to producers' traditional practice. PCTF and minimum tillage provide sugar producers with a tool to manage the price cost squeeze at a time of low sugar prices. These data provide producers with the evidence that investment in PCTF is economically prudent.

The ozone transfer between atmosphere and vegetation. A study on Scots pine in the field

Ozone (O3) is a reactive gas present in the troposphere in the range of parts per billion (ppb), i.e. molecules of O3 in 109 molecules of air. Its strong oxidative capacity makes it a key element in tropospheric chemistry and a threat to the integrity of materials, including living organisms. Knowledge and control of O3 levels are an issue in relation to indoor air quality, building material endurance, respiratory human disorders, and plant performance. Ozone is also a greenhouse gas and its abundance is relevant to global warming. The interaction of the lower troposphere with vegetated landscapes results in O3 being removed from the atmosphere by reactions that lead to the oxidation of plant-related components. Details on the rate and pattern of removal on different landscapes as well as the ultimate mechanisms by which this occurs are not fully resolved. This thesis analysed the controlling processes of the transfer of ozone at the air-plant interface. Improvement in the knowledge of these processes benefits the prediction of both atmospheric removal of O3 and its impact on vegetation. This study was based on the measurement and analysis of multi-year field measurements of O3 flux to Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) foliage with a shoot-scale gas-exchange enclosure system. In addition, the analyses made use of simultaneous CO2 and H2O exchange, canopy-scale O3, CO2 and H2O exchange, foliage surface wetness, and environmental variables. All data was gathered at the SMEAR measuring station (southern Finland). Enclosure gas-exchange techniques such as those commonly used for the measure of CO2 and water vapour can be applied to the measure of ozone gas-exchange in the field. Through analysis of the system dynamics the occurring disturbances and noise can be identified. In the system used in this study, the possible artefacts arising from the ozone reactivity towards the system materials in combination with low background concentrations need to be taken into account. The main artefact was the loss of ozone towards the chamber walls, which was found to be very variable. The level of wall-loss was obtained from simultaneous and continuous measurements, and was included in the formulation of the mass balance of O3 concentration inside the chamber. The analysis of the field measurements in this study show that the flux of ozone to the Scots pine foliage is generated in about equal proportions by stomatal and non-stomatal controlled processes. Deposition towards foliage and forest is sustained also during night and winter when stomatal gas-exchange is low or absent. The non-stomatal portion of the flux was analysed further. The pattern of flux in time was found to be an overlap of the patterns of biological activity and presence of wetness in the environment. This was seen to occur both at the shoot and canopy scale. The presence of wetness enhanced the flux not only in the presence of liquid droplets but also during existence of a moisture film on the plant surfaces. The existence of these films and their relation to the ozone sinks was determined by simultaneous measurements of leaf surface wetness and ozone flux. The results seem to suggest ozone would be reacting at the foliage surface and the reaction rate would be mediated by the presence of surface wetness. Alternative mechanisms were discussed, including nocturnal stomatal aperture and emission of reactive volatile compounds. The prediction of the total flux could thus be based on a combination of a model of stomatal behaviour and a model of water absorption on the foliage surfaces. The concepts behind the division of stomatal and non-stomatal sinks were reconsidered. This study showed that it is theoretically possible that a sink located before or near the stomatal aperture prevents or diminishes the diffusion of ozone towards the intercellular air space of the mesophyll. This obstacle to stomatal diffusion happens only under certain conditions, which include a very low presence of reaction sites in the mesophyll, an extremely strong sink located on the outer surfaces or stomatal pore. The relevance, or existence, of this process in natural conditions would need to be assessed further. Potentially strong reactions were considered, including dissolved sulphate, volatile organic compounds, and apoplastic ascorbic acid. Information on the location and the relative abundance of these compounds would be valuable. The highest total flux towards the foliage and forest happens when both the plant activity and ambient moisture are high. The highest uptake into the interior of the foliage happens at large stomatal apertures, provided that scavenging reactions located near the stomatal pore are weak or non-existent. The discussion covers the methodological developments of this study, the relevance of the different controlling factors of ozone flux, the partition amongst its component, and the possible mechanisms of non-stomatal uptake.

A four-variable model for the pattern-forming mechanism in Hydra

A generalized Gierer-Meinhardt model has been used to account for the transplantation experiments in Hydra. In this model, a cross inhibition between the two organizing centres (namely, head and foot) are assumed to be the only mode of interaction in setting up a stable morphogen distribution for the pattern formation in Hydra.

The cost-effectiveness of the MobileMums intervention to increase physical activity among mothers with young children: A Markov model informed by a randomised controlled trial

Objectives: To determine the cost-effectiveness of the MobileMums intervention. MobileMums is a 12-week programme which assists mothers with young children to be more physically active, primarily through the use of personalised SMS text-messages. Design: A cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov model to estimate and compare the costs and consequences of MobileMums and usual care. Setting: This study considers the cost-effectiveness of MobileMums in Queensland, Australia. Participants: A hypothetical cohort of over 36 000 women with a child under 1 year old is considered. These women are expected to be eligible and willing to participate in the intervention in Queensland, Australia. Data sources: The model was informed by the effectiveness results from a 9-month two-arm community-based randomised controlled trial undertaken in 2011 and registered retrospectively with the Australian Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12611000481976). Baseline characteristics for the model cohort, treatment effects and resource utilisation were all informed by this trial. Main outcome measures: The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) of MobileMums compared with usual care. Results: The intervention is estimated to lead to an increase of 131 QALYs for an additional cost to the health system of 1.1 million Australian dollars (AUD). The expected incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for MobileMums is 8608 AUD per QALY gained. MobileMums has a 98% probability of being cost-effective at a cost-effectiveness threshold of 64 000 AUD. Varying modelling assumptions has little effect on this result. Conclusions: At a cost-effectiveness threshold of 64 000 AUD, MobileMums would likely be a cost-effective use of healthcare resources in Queensland, Australia. Trial registration number: Australian Clinical Trials Registry; ACTRN12611000481976.

Biological Control of Oilseed Rape Pests with Entomopathogenic Nematodes

Biological control techniques attract increasing attention as one of the sustainable alternatives to pesticide use in integrated pest management programs. In order to develop sustainable pest management methods for arable crops based on entomopathogenic nematodes (EPN), their efficacy and persistence needed to be investigated, and an economically feasible delivery system had to be developed. In this study, first a survey of entomopathogens was conducted, and a system approach was tested, using the oilseed Brassica (OSB) growing system (OSB, spring wheat, and red clover) as a model. The system approach aimed at determining the potential of Steinernema feltiae (Filipjev) for the control of OSB pests, developing OSB rotation schemes that support EPN persistence, and investigating the impact of the selected biotic and abiotic factors on efficacy and persistence of EPN. This study employed abductive logic (which employs constant interplay between the theory and empirical observation), quantitative methods, and a case study on OSB. Laboratory and field experiments were carried out, and two types of pathogen surveys. A horizontal survey included OSB fields across Estonia, Germany, Poland, Sweden and the UK, while a vertical survey included sampling from two sets of differently managed experimental fields during three years. A new approach was introduced for measuring occurrence, where the prevalence and relative intensity of entomopathogens, biotic agents, and unidentified insect antagonists were determined. The effect of dose, timing, and the application method on S. feltiae in the control of pests in OSB, and the potential of a controlled release delivery system (CRS) were evaluated in the field. Studies on the impact of selected biotic and abiotc factors (Brassica plant, bait insects, developmental stages of Meligethes aeneus Fab., Isaria fumosorosea Wize (Ifr), and organic and synthetic fertilizers) on the efficacy of S. feltiae were conducted in the laboratory. Persistence of S. feltiae in the OSB growing system, and the effect of dose, timing, and the application method, was assessed in the field as part of the efficacy experiments. The impact of selected biotic and abiotic factors on S. feltiae persistence was assessed in laboratory experiments. The pathogen survey showed that the occurrence of entomopathogens is low in the OSB growing system, and that a management system causing less disturbance (ICM) to the soil increases the relative intensity of insect parasitic nematodes and other insect antagonists. A longer study period is required to show any possible impact of ICM on the relative intensity of entomopathogenic fungi, or on the prevalence of entomopathogens. Two different measures of the occurrence yielded different results: the relative intensity revealed the difference between the two different crop management methods, while prevalence did not. The highest efficacy of S. feltiae was achieved by using a low dose and targeting all stages of M. aeneus. When only the larval stage was targeted, the application method and dose had no significant effect. The CRS decreased the pest abundance significantly more than the surface application method. S. feltiae persisted in the OSB fields in Finland for several months, but did not survive the winter. The strain survived for 7 months when it was applied in autumn in Germany, but its populations declined rapidly after winter. The examined biotic and abiotic factors had variable impacts on S. feltiae efficacy and persistence. The two measures, prevalence and relative intensity of entomopathogens, gave valuable information for their use in biocontrol programs. The recommended biocontrol strategy for OSB growing in Finland is inundation and seasonal inoculation of EPN. The impact of some biotic and abiotic factors on S. feltiae efficacy and persistence is significant, and can be used to improve the efficacy of EPN. The CRS is a novel alternative for EPN application, and should also be considered for use on other crops. Keywords: Biological control, inundation, inoculation, conservation, formulation, slow release method, crop rotation, Entomopathogenic nematodes, Steinernema feltiae, oilseed rape pests, Meligethes aeneus, Phyllotreta spp., occurrence, prevalence, intensity, efficacy, persistence, field, Isaria fumosorosea, biotic factors, abiotic factors, interaction, impact, insect stages, integrated crop management, standard (conventional) crop management

Sustainable management for rangelands in a variable climate: evidence and insights from northern Australia

Inter-annual rainfall variability is a major challenge to sustainable and productive grazing management on rangelands. In Australia, rainfall variability is particularly pronounced and failure to manage appropriately leads to major economic loss and environmental degradation. Recommended strategies to manage sustainably include stocking at long-term carrying capacity (LTCC) or varying stock numbers with forage availability. These strategies are conceptually simple but difficult to implement, given the scale and spatial heterogeneity of grazing properties and the uncertainty of the climate. This paper presents learnings and insights from northern Australia gained from research and modelling on managing for rainfall variability. A method to objectively estimate LTCC in large, heterogeneous paddocks is discussed, and guidelines and tools to tactically adjust stocking rates are presented. The possible use of seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) in management is also considered. Results from a 13-year grazing trial in Queensland show that constant stocking at LTCC was far more profitable and largely maintained land condition compared with heavy stocking (HSR). Variable stocking (VAR) with or without the use of SCF was marginally more profitable, but income variability was greater and land condition poorer than constant stocking at LTCC. Two commercial scale trials in the Northern Territory with breeder cows highlighted the practical difficulties of variable stocking and provided evidence that heavier pasture utilisation rates depress reproductive performance. Simulation modelling across a range of regions in northern Australia also showed a decline in resource condition and profitability under heavy stocking rates. Modelling further suggested that the relative value of variable v. constant stocking depends on stocking rate and land condition. Importantly, variable stocking may possibly allow slightly higher stocking rates without pasture degradation. Enterprise-level simulations run for breeder herds nevertheless show that poor economic performance can occur under constant stocking and even under variable stocking in some circumstances. Modelling and research results both suggest that a form of constrained flexible stocking should be applied to manage for climate variability. Active adaptive management and research will be required as future climate changes make managing for rainfall variability increasingly challenging.

MPC controlled multirotor with suspended slung load: System architecture and visual load detection

There is an increased interest in the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for load transportation from environmental remote sensing to construction and parcel delivery. One of the main challenges is accurate control of the load position and trajectory. This paper presents an assessment of real flight trials for the control of an autonomous multi-rotor with a suspended slung load using only visual feedback to determine the load position. This method uses an onboard camera to take advantage of a common visual marker detection algorithm to robustly detect the load location. The load position is calculated using an onboard processor, and transmitted over a wireless network to a ground station integrating MATLAB/SIMULINK and Robotic Operating System (ROS) and a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) to control both the load and the UAV. To evaluate the system performance, the position of the load determined by the visual detection system in real flight is compared with data received by a motion tracking system. The multi-rotor position tracking performance is also analyzed by conducting flight trials using perfect load position data and data obtained only from the visual system. Results show very accurate estimation of the load position (~5% Offset) using only the visual system and demonstrate that the need for an external motion tracking system is not needed for this task.

Reducing the risk of herbicide runoff in sugarcane farming through controlled traffic and early-banded application

The off-site transport of agricultural chemicals, such as herbicides, into freshwater and marine ecosystems is a world-wide concern. The adoption of farm management practices that minimise herbicide transport in rainfall-runoff is a priority for the Australian sugarcane industry, particularly in the coastal catchments draining into the World Heritage listed Great Barrier Reef (GBR) lagoon. In this study, residual herbicide runoff and infiltration were measured using a rainfall simulator in a replicated trial on a brown Chromosol with 90–100% cane trash blanket cover in the Mackay Whitsunday region, Queensland. Management treatments included conventional 1.5 m spaced sugarcane beds with a single row of sugarcane (CONV) and 2 m spaced, controlled traffic sugarcane beds with dual sugarcane rows (0.8 m apart) (2mCT). The aim was to simulate the first rainfall event after the application of the photosynthesis inhibiting (PSII) herbicides ametryn, atrazine, diuron and hexazinone, by broadcast (100% coverage, on bed and furrow) and banding (50–60% coverage, on bed only) methods. These events included heavy rainfall 1 day after herbicide application, considered a worst case scenario, or rainfall 21 days after application. The 2mCT rows had significantly (P < 0.05) less runoff (38%) and lower peak runoff rates (43%) than CONV rows for a rainfall average of 93 mm at 100 mm h−1 (1:20 yr Average Return Interval). Additionally, final infiltration rates were higher in 2mCT rows than CONV rows, with 72 and 52 mm h−1 respectively. This resulted in load reductions of 60, 55, 47, and 48% for ametryn, atrazine, diuron and hexazinone from 2mCT rows, respectively. Herbicide losses in runoff were also reduced by 32–42% when applications were banded rather than broadcast. When rainfall was experienced 1 day after application, a large percentage of herbicides were washed off the cane trash. However, by day 21, concentrations of herbicide residues on cane trash were lower and more resistant to washoff, resulting in lower losses in runoff. Consequently, ametryn and atrazine event mean concentrations in runoff were approximately 8 fold lower at day 21 compared with day 1, whilst diuron and hexazinone were only 1.6–1.9 fold lower, suggesting longer persistence of these chemicals. Runoff collected at the end of the paddock in natural rainfall events indicated consistent though smaller treatment differences to the rainfall simulation study. Overall, it was the combination of early application, banding and controlled traffic that was most effective in reducing herbicide losses in runoff. Crown copyright © 2012