Tropical cyclones in a T159 Resolution Global Climate Model: comparison with observations and re-analyses

Tropical cyclones have been investigated in a T159 version of the MPI ECHAM5 climate model using a novel technique to diagnose the evolution of the 3-dimensional vorticity structure of tropical cyclones, including their full life cycle from weak initial vortex to their possible extra-tropical transition. Results have been compared with reanalyses (ERA40 and JRA25) and observed tropical storms during the period 1978-1999 for the Northern Hemisphere. There is no indication of any trend in the number or intensity of tropical storms during this period in ECHAM5 or in re-analyses but there are distinct inter-annual variations. The storms simulated by ECHAM5 are realistic both in space and time, but the model and even more so the re-analyses, underestimate the intensities of the most intense storms (in terms of their maximum wind speeds). There is an indication of a response to ENSO with a smaller number of Atlantic storms during El Niño in agreement with previous studies. The global divergence circulation responds to El Niño by setting up a large-scale convergence flow, with the center over the central Pacific with enhanced subsidence over the tropical Atlantic. At the same time there is an increase in the vertical wind shear in the region of the tropical Atlantic where tropical storms normally develop. There is a good correspondence between the model and ERA40 except that the divergence circulation is somewhat stronger in the model. The model underestimates storms in the Atlantic but tends to overestimate them in the Western Pacific and in the North Indian Ocean. It is suggested that the overestimation of storms in the Pacific by the model is related to an overly strong response to the tropical Pacific SST anomalies. The overestimation in 2 the North Indian Ocean is likely to be due to an over prediction in the intensity of monsoon depressions, which are then classified as intense tropical storms. Nevertheless, overall results are encouraging and will further contribute to increased confidence in simulating intense tropical storms with high-resolution climate models.

Comparison of child morbidity in two contrasting medieval cemeteries from Denmark

This study compares associations between demographic profiles, long bone lengths, bone mineral content, and frequencies of stress indicators in the preadult populations of two medieval skeletal assemblages from Denmark. One is from a leprosarium, and thus probably represents a disadvantaged group (Naestved). The other comes from a normal, and in comparison rather privileged, medieval community (AEbelholt). Previous studies of the adult population indicated differences between the two skeletal collections with regard to mortality, dental size, and metabolic and specific infectious disease. The two samples were analyzed against the view known as the "osteological paradox" (Wood et al. [1992] Curr. Anthropol. 33:343-370), according to which skeletons displaying pathological modification are likely to represent the healthier individuals of a population, whereas those without lesions would have died without acquiring modifications as a result of a depressed immune response. Results reveal that older age groups among the preadults from Naestved are shorter and have less bone mineral content than their peers from AEbelholt. On average, the Naestved children have a higher prevalence of stress indicators, and in some cases display skeletal signs of leprosy. This is likely a result of the combination of compromised health and social disadvantage, thus supporting a more traditional interpretation. The study provides insights into the health of children from two different biocultural settings of medieval Danish society and illustrates the importance of comparing samples of single age groups.

Searching for the perfect surface area normalizing term - a comparison of BET surface area-, geometric surface area- and mass-normalized dissolution rates of anorthite and biotite

Dissolution rates were calculated for a range of grain sizes of anorthite and biotite dissolved under far from equilibrium conditions at pH 3, T = 20 degrees C. Dissolution rates were normalized to initial and final BET surface area, geometric surface area, mass and (for biotite only) geometric edge surface area. Constant (within error) dissolution rates were only obtained by normalizing to initial BET surface area for biotite. The normalizing term that gave the smallest variation about the mean for anorthite was initial BET surface area. In field studies, only current (final) surface area is measurable. In this study, final geometric surface area gave the smallest variation for anorthite dissolution rates and final geometric edge surface area for biotite dissolution rates. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Comparison of ammonium lactate, sodium bicarbonate and double calcium lactate methods for extraction of phosphorus from wetland peat soils

Procedures for routine analysis of soil phosphorus (P) have been used for assessment of P status, distribution and P losses from cultivated mineral soils. No similar studies have been carried out on wetland peat soils. The objective was to compare extraction efficiency of ammonium lactate (PAL), sodium bicarbonate (P-Olsen), and double calcium lactate (P-DCaL) and P distribution in the soil profile of wetland peat soils. For this purpose, 34 samples of the 0-30, 30-60 and 60-90 cm layers were collected from peat soils in Germany, Israel, Poland, Slovenia, Sweden and the United Kingdom and analysed for P. Mean soil pH (CaCl2, 0.01 M) was 5.84, 5.51 and 5.47 in the 0-30, 30-60 and 60-90 cm layers, respectively. The P-DCaL was consistently about half the magnitude of either P-AL or P-Olsen. The efficiency of P extraction increased in the order P-DCaL < P-AL &LE; P-Olsen, with corresponding means (mg kg(-1)) for all soils (34 samples) of 15.32, 33.49 and 34.27 in 0-30 cm; 8.87, 17.30 and 21.46 in 30-60 cm; and 5.69, 14.00 and 21.40 in 60-90 cm. The means decreased with depth. When examining soils for each country separately, P-Olsen was relatively evenly distributed in the German, UK and Slovenian soils. P-Olsen was linearly correlated (r = 0.594, P = 0.0002) with pH, whereas the three P tests (except P-Olsen vs P-DCaL) significantly correlated with each other (P = 0.017850.0001). The strongest correlation (r = 0.617, P = 0.0001) was recorded for P-AL vs P-DCaL) and the two methods were inter-convertible using a regression equation: P-AL = -22.593 + 5.353 pH + 1.423 P-DCaL, R-2 = 0.550.

Climate impacts of recent multidecadal changes in Atlantic Ocean Sea Surface Temperature: A multimodel comparison

During the twentieth century sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean exhibited prominent multidecadal variations. The source of such variations has yet to be rigorously established—but the question of their impact on climate can be investigated. Here we report on a set of multimodel experiments to examine the impact of patterns of warming in the North Atlantic, and cooling in the South Atlantic, derived from observations, that is characteristic of the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The experiments were carried out with six atmospheric General Circulation Models (including two versions of one model), and a major goal was to assess the extent to which key climate impacts are consistent between the different models. The major climate impacts are found over North and South America, with the strongest impacts over land found over the United States and northern parts of South America. These responses appear to be driven by a combination of an off-equatorial Gill response to diabatic heating over the Caribbean due to increased rainfall within the region and a Northward shift in the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) due to the anomalous cross-equatorial SST gradient. The majority of the models show warmer US land temperatures and reduced Mean Sea Level Pressure during summer (JJA) in response to a warmer North Atlantic and a cooler South Atlantic, in line with observations. However the majority of models show no significant impact on US rainfall during summer. Over northern South America, all models show reduced rainfall in southern hemisphere winter (JJA), whilst in Summer (DJF) there is a generally an increase in rainfall. However, there is a large spread amongst the models in the magnitude of the rainfall anomalies over land. Away from the Americas, there are no consistent significant modelled responses. In particular there are no significant changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the North Atlantic and Europe in Winter (DJF). Additionally, the observed Sahel drying signal in African rainfall is not seen in the modelled responses. Suggesting that, in contrast to some studies, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation was not the primary driver of recent reductions in Sahel rainfall.

Incorporating data received after a sequential trial has stopped into the final analysis: implementation and comparison of methods

In a sequential clinical trial, accrual of data on patients often continues after the stopping criterion for the study has been met. This is termed “overrunning.” Overrunning occurs mainly when the primary response from each patient is measured after some extended observation period. The objective of this article is to compare two methods of allowing for overrunning. In particular, simulation studies are reported that assess the two procedures in terms of how well they maintain the intended type I error rate. The effect on power resulting from the incorporation of “overrunning data” using the two procedures is evaluated.

Use of global gene expression patterns in mechanistic studies of oestrogen action in MCF7 human breast cancer cells

Over the years, the MCF7 human breast cancer cell line has provided a model system for the study of cellular and molecular mechanisms in oestrogen regulation of cell proliferation and in progression to oestrogen and antioestrogen independent growth. Global gene expression profiling has shown that oestrogen action in MCF7 cells involves the coordinated regulation of hundreds of genes across a wide range of functional groupings and that more genes are down regulated than upregulated. Adaptation to long-term oestrogen deprivation, which results in loss of oestrogen-responsive growth, involves alterations to gene patterns not only at early time points (0-4 weeks) but continuing through to later times (20-55 weeks), and even involves alterations to patterns of oestrogen-regulated gene expression. Only 48% of the genes which were regulated >= 2-fold by oestradiol in oestrogen-responsive cells retained this responsiveness after long-term oestrogen deprivation but other genes developed de novo oestrogen regulation. Long-term exposure to fulvestrant, which resulted in loss of growth inhibition by the antioestrogen, resulted in some very large fold changes in gene expression up to 10,000-fold. Comparison of gene profiles produced by environmental chemicals with oestrogenic properties showed that each ligand gave its own unique expression profile which suggests that environmental oestrogens entering the human breast may give rise to a more complex web of interference in cell function than simply mimicking oestrogen action at inappropriate times. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comparison of the active surveillance of scrapie in the European Union

The abattoir and the fallen stock surveys constitute the active surveillance component aimed at improving the detection of scrapie across the European Union. Previous studies have suggested the occurrence of significant differences in the operation of the surveys across the EU. In the present study we assessed the standardisation of the surveys throughout time across the EU and identified clusters of countries with similar underlying characteristics allowing comparisons between them. In the absence of sufficient covariate information to explain the observed variability across countries, we modelled the unobserved heterogeneity by means of non-parametric distributions on the risk ratios of the fallen stock over the abattoir survey. More specifically, we used the profile likelihood method on 2003, 2004 and 2005 active surveillance data for 18 European countries on classical scrapie, and on 2004 and 2005 data for atypical scrapie separately. We extended our analyses to include the limited covariate information available, more specifically, the proportion of the adult sheep population sampled by the fallen stock survey every year. Our results show that the between-country heterogeneity dropped in 2004 and 2005 relative to that of 2003 for classical scrapie. As a consequence, the number of clusters in the last two years was also reduced indicating the gradual standardisation of the surveillance efforts across the EU. The crude analyses of the atypical data grouped all the countries in one cluster and showed non-significant gain in the detection of this type of scrapie by any of the two sources. The proportion of the population sampled by the fallen stock appeared significantly associated with our risk ratio for both types of scrapie, although in opposite directions: negative for classical and positive for atypical. The initial justification for the fallen stock, targeting a high-risk population to increase the likelihood of case finding, appears compromised for both types of scrapie in some countries.

A comparison of three different models for estimating relative risk in meta-analysis of clinical trials under unobserved heterogeneity

We focus on the comparison of three statistical models used to estimate the treatment effect in metaanalysis when individually pooled data are available. The models are two conventional models, namely a multi-level and a model based upon an approximate likelihood, and a newly developed model, the profile likelihood model which might be viewed as an extension of the Mantel-Haenszel approach. To exemplify these methods, we use results from a meta-analysis of 22 trials to prevent respiratory tract infections. We show that by using the multi-level approach, in the case of baseline heterogeneity, the number of clusters or components is considerably over-estimated. The approximate and profile likelihood method showed nearly the same pattern for the treatment effect distribution. To provide more evidence two simulation studies are accomplished. The profile likelihood can be considered as a clear alternative to the approximate likelihood model. In the case of strong baseline heterogeneity, the profile likelihood method shows superior behaviour when compared with the multi-level model. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The addition reaction between silylene and ethyne: further isotope studies, pressure dependence studies, and quantum chemical calculations

Time-resolved kinetic studies of the reaction of dideutero-silylene, SiD2, generated by laser flash photolysis of phenylsilane-d(3), have been carried out to obtain rate constants for its bimolecular reaction with C2H2. The reaction was studied in the gas phase over the pressure range 1-100 Torr in SF6 bath gas, at five temperatures in the range 297-600 K. The second-order rate constants obtained by extrapolation to the high-pressure limits at each temperature fitted the Arrhenius equation log(k(infinity)/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) = (-10.05 +/- 0.05) + (3.43 +/- 0.36 kJ mol(-1))/RT ln 10. The rate constants were used to obtain a comprehensive set of isotope effects by comparison with earlier obtained rate constants for the reactions of SiH2 with C2H2 and C2D2. Additionally, pressure-dependent rate constants for the reaction of SiH2 with C2H2 in the presence of He (1-100 Tort) were obtained at 300, 399, and 613 K. Quantum chemical (ab initio) calculations of the SiC2H4 reaction system at the G3 level support the initial formation of silirene, which rapidly isomerizes to ethynylsilane as the major pathway. Reversible formation of vinylsilylene is also an important process. The calculations also indicate the involvement of several other intermediates, not previously suggested in the mechanism. RRKM calculations are in semiquantitative agreement with the pressure dependences and isotope effects suggested by the ab initio calculations, but residual discrepancies suggest the possible involvement of the minor reaction channel, SiH2 + C2H2 - SWPO + C2H4. The results are compared and contrasted with previous studies of this reaction system.

Gas-phase kinetic and theoretical studies of reactions of germylenes and dimethylstannylene

The results of time-resolved gas phase studies of labile germylenes (GeH2 and GeMe2) and dimethylstannylene (SnMe2) reactions reported to date are considered together with data of quantum-chemical investigations of the potential energy surfaces of these systems. Reaction mechanisms are discussed. A comparison of reactivity in the series of carbene analogs, ER2 (E = Si, Ge, Sn, R = H, Me), is made.

An experimental comparison between rival theories of rapid automatized naming performance and its relationship to reading

Two studies investigated the degree to which the relationship between rapid automatized naming (RAN) performance and reading development is driven by shared phonological processes. Study 1 assessed RAN, phonological awareness, and reading performance in 1010 7- to -10 year-olds. Results showed that RAN deficits occurred in the absence of phonological awareness deficits. These were accompanied by modest reading delays. In structural equation modeling, solutions where RAN was subsumed within a phonological processing factor did not provide a good fit to the data, suggesting that processes outside phonology may drive RAN performance and its association with reading. Study 2 investigated Kail’s proposal that speed of processing underlies this relationship. Children with single RAN deficits showed slower speed of processing than did closely matched controls performing normally on RAN. However, regression analysis revealed that RAN made a unique contribution to reading even after accounting for processing speed. Theoretical implications are discussed.

Development of a quantitative tool for the comparison of the prebiotic effect of dietary oligosaccharides

Aims: To develop a quantitative equation [prebiotic index ( PI)] to aid the analysis of prebiotic fermentation of commercially available and novel prebiotic carbohydrates in vitro, using previously published fermentation data. Methods: The PI equation is based on the changes in key bacterial groups during fermentation. The bacterial groups incorporated into this PI equation were bifidobacteria, lactobacilli, clostridia and bacteroides. The changes in these bacterial groups from previous studies were entered into the PI equation in order to determine a quantitative PI score. PI scores were than compared with the qualitative conclusions made in these publications. In general the PI scores agreed with the qualitative conclusions drawn and provided a quantitative measure. Conclusions: The PI allows the magnitude of prebiotic effects to be quantified rather than evaluations being solely qualitative. Significance and Impact of the Study: The PI equation may be of great use in quantifying prebiotic effects in vitro. It is expected that this will facilitate more rational food product development and the development of more potent prebiotics with activity at lower doses.

Predicting the thermal inactivation of bacteria in a solid matrix: simulation studies on the relative effects of microbial thermal resistance parameters and process conditions

A combined mathematical model for predicting heat penetration and microbial inactivation in a solid body heated by conduction was tested experimentally by inoculating agar cylinders with Salmonella typhimurium or Enterococcus faecium and heating in a water bath. Regions of growth where bacteria had survived after heating were measured by image analysis and compared with model predictions. Visualisation of the regions of growth was improved by incorporating chromogenic metabolic indicators into the agar. Preliminary tests established that the model performed satisfactorily with both test organisms and with cylinders of different diameter. The model was then used in simulation studies in which the parameters D, z, inoculum size, cylinder diameter and heating temperature were systematically varied. These simulations showed that the biological variables D, z and inoculum size had a relatively small effect on the time needed to eliminate bacteria at the cylinder axis in comparison with the physical variables heating temperature and cylinder diameter, which had a much greater relative effect. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.