The prediction of seasonal and inter-annual climate variations and their impacts on the water resources in the eastern seaboard of Thailand

The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.

A pilot investigation of the relationship between climate variability and milk compounds under the bootstrap technique

This study analyzes the linear relationship between climate variables and milk components in Iran by applying bootstrapping to include and assess the uncertainty. The climate parameters, Temperature Humidity Index (THI) and Equivalent Temperature Index (ETI) are computed from the NASA-Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA) reanalysis (2002–2010). Milk data for fat, protein (measured on fresh matter bases), and milk yield are taken from 936,227 milk records for the same period, using cows fed by natural pasture from April to September. Confidence intervals for the regression model are calculated using the bootstrap technique. This method is applied to the original times series, generating statistically equivalent surrogate samples. As a result, despite the short time data and the related uncertainties, an interesting behavior of the relationships between milk compound and the climate parameters is visible. During spring only, a weak dependency of milk yield and climate variations is obvious, while fat and protein concentrations show reasonable correlations. In summer, milk yield shows a similar level of relationship with ETI, but not with temperature and THI. We suggest this methodology for studies in the field of the impacts of climate change and agriculture, also environment and food with short-term data.

Effects of shoot pruning and inflorescence thinning on plant growth, yield and fruit quality of greenhouse tomatoes in a tropical climate

The combined effects of shoot pruning (one or two stems) and inflorescence thinning (five or ten flowers per inflorescence) on greenhouse tomato yield and fruit quality were studied during the dry season (DS) and rainy season (RS) in Central Thailand. Poor fruit set, development of undersized (mostly parthenocarpic) fruits, as well as the physiological disorders blossom-end rot (BER) and fruit cracking (FC) turned out to be the prevailing causes deteriorating fruit yield and quality. The proportion of marketable fruits was less than 10% in the RS and around 65% in the DS. In both seasons, total yield was significantly increased when plants were cultivated with two stems, resulting in higher marketable yields only in the DS. While the fraction of undersized fruits was increased in both seasons when plants were grown with a secondary stem, the proportions of BER and FC were significantly reduced. Restricting the number of flowers per inflorescence invariably resulted in reduced total yield. However, in neither season did fruit load considerably affect quantity or proportion of the marketable yield fraction. Inflorescence thinning tended to promote BER and FC, an effect which was only significant for BER in the RS. In conclusion, for greenhouse tomato production under climate conditions as they are prevalent in Central Thailand, the cultivation with two stems appears to be highly recommendable whereas the measures to control fruit load tested in this study did not proof to be advisable.

Modeling the Transport Sector: The Role of Existing Fuel Taxes in Climate Policy

Existing fuel taxes play a major role in determining the welfare effects of exempting the transportation sector from measures to control greenhouse gases. To study this phenomenon we modify the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model to disaggregate the household transportation sector. This improvement requires an extension of the GTAP data set that underlies the model. The revised and extended facility is then used to compare economic costs of cap-and-trade systems differentiated by sector, focusing on two regions: the USA where the fuel taxes are low, and Europe where the fuel taxes are high. We find that the interplay between carbon policies and pre-existing taxes leads to different results in these regions: in the USA exemption of transport from such a system would increase the welfare cost of achieving a national emissions target, while in Europe such exemptions will correct pre-existing distortions and reduce the cost.

Responsive Azobenzene-Containing Polymers and Gels

The photoviscosity effect in aqueous solutions of novel poly(4-methacryloyloxyazobenzene-co-N,N-dimethyl acrylamide) (MOAB-DMA) was demonstrated. The observed significant reduction in the zero-shear viscosity upon UV-irradiation of MOAB-DMA aqueous solutions was due to the dissociation of the interchain azobenzene aggregates. Such phenomena can be advantageously used in photoswitchable fluidic devices and in protein separation. Introduction of enzymatically degradable azo cross-links into Pluronic-PAA microgels allowed for control of swelling due to degradation of the cross-links by azoreductases from the rat intestinal cecum. Dynamic changes in the cross-link density of stimuli-responsive microgels enable novel opportunities for the control of gel swelling, of importance for drug delivery and microgel sensoric applications.

Self-Assembly of Stimuli-Responsive Water-Soluble [60]Fullerene End-Capped Ampholytic Block Copolymer

Well-defined, water-soluble, pH and temperature stimuli-responsive [60]fullerene (C₆₀) containing ampholytic block copolymer of poly((methacrylic acid)-block-(2-(dimethylamino)ethyl methacrylate))-block–C₆₀ (P(MAA-b-DMAEMA)-b-C₆₀) was synthesized by the atom transfer radical polymerization (ATRP) technique. The self-assembly behaviour of the C₆₀ containing polyampholyte in aqueous solution was characterized by dynamic light scattering (DLS), and transmission electron microscopy. This amphiphilic mono-C₆₀ end-capped block copolymer shows enhanced solubility in aqueous medium at room and elevated temperatures and at low and high pH but phase-separates at intermediate pH of between 5.4 and 8.8. The self assembly of the copolymer is different from that of P(MAA-b-DMAEMA). Examination of the association behavior using DLS revealed the co-existence of unimers and aggregates at low pH at all temperatures studied, with the association being driven by the balance of hydrophobic and electrostatic interactions. Unimers and aggregates of different microstructures are also observed at high pH and at temperatures below the lower critical solution temperature (LCST) of PDMAEMA. At high pH and at temperatures above the LCST of PDMAEMA, the formation of micelles and aggregates co-existing in solution is driven by the combination of hydrophobic, electrostatic, and charge-transfer interactions.

Stimuli-responsive Novel Amphiphilic Polymers for Chemical and Biomedical Applications

Amphiphilic polymers are a class of polymers that self-assemble into different types of microstructure, depending on the solvent environment and external stimuli. Self assembly structures can exist in many different forms, such as spherical micelles, rod-like micelles, bi-layers, vesicles, bi-continuous structure etc. Most biological systems are basically comprised of many of these organised structures arranged in an intelligent manner, which impart functions and life to the system. We have adopted the atom transfer radical polymerization (ATRP) technique to synthesize various types of block copolymer systems that self-assemble into different microstructure when subject to an external stimuli, such as pH or temperature. The systems that we have studied are: (1) pH responsive fullerene (C60) containing poly(methacrylic acid) (PMAA-b-C60); (2) pH and temperature responsive fullerene containing poly[2-(dimethylamino)ethyl methacrylate] (C₆₀-b-PDMAEMA); (3) other responsive water-soluble fullerene systems. By varying temperature, pH and salt concentration, different types microstructure can be produced. In the presence of inorganic salts, fractal patterns at nano- to microscopic dimension were observed for negatively charged PMAA-b-C60, while such structure was not observed for positively charged PDMAEMA-b-C60. We demonstrated that negatively charged fullerene containing polymeric systems can serve as excellent nano-templates for the controlled growth of inorganic crystals at the nano- to micrometer length scale and the possible mechanism was proposed. The physical properties and the characteristics of their self-assembly properties will be discussed, and their implications to chemical and biomedical applications will be highlighted.

Targeted Stimuli-Responsive Dextran Conjugates for Doxorubicin Delivery to Hepatocytes

A targeted, stimuli-responsive, polymeric drug delivery vehicle is being developed in our lab to help alleviate severe side-effects caused by narrow therapeutic window drugs. Targeting specific cell types or organs via proteins, specifically, lectin-mediated targeting holds potential due to the high specificity and affinity of receptor-ligand interactions, rapid internalization, and relative ease of processing. Dextran, a commercially available, biodegradable polymer has been conjugated to doxorubicin and galactosamine to target hepatocytes in a three-step, one-pot synthesis. The loading of doxorubicin and galactose on the conjugates was determined by absorbance at 485 nm and elemental analysis, respectively. Conjugation efficiency based on the amount loaded of each reactant varies from 20% to 50% for doxorubicin and from 2% to 20% for galactosamine. Doxorubicin has also been attached to dextran through an acid-labile hydrazide bond. Doxorubicin acts by intercalating with DNA in the nuclei of cells. The fluorescence of doxorubicin is quenched when it binds to DNA. This allows a fluorescence-based cell-free assay to evaluate the efficacy of the polymer conjugates where we measure the fluorescence of doxorubicin and the conjugates in increasing concentrations of calf thymus DNA. Fluorescence quenching indicates that our conjugates can bind to DNA. The degree of binding increases with polymer molecular weight and substitution of doxorubicin. In cell culture experiments with hepatocytes, the relative uptake of polymer conjugates was evaluated using flow cytometry, and the killing efficiency was determined using the MTT cell proliferation assay. We have found that conjugate uptake is much lower than that of free doxorubicin. Lower uptake of conjugates may increase the maximum dose of drug tolerated by the body. Also, non-galactosylated conjugate uptake is lower than that of the galactosylated conjugate. Microscopy indicates that doxorubicin localizes almost exclusively at the nucleus, whereas the conjugates are present throughout the cell. Doxorubicin linked to dextran through a hydrazide bond was used to achieve improved killing efficiency. Following uptake, the doxorubicin dissociates from the polymer in an endosomal compartment and diffuses to the nucleus. The LC₅₀ of covalently linked doxorubicin is 7.4 μg/mL, whereas that of hydrazide linked doxorubicin is 4.4 μg/mL.

Effects of Air Pollution Control on Climate

Urban air pollution and climate are closely connected due to shared generating processes (e.g., combustion) for emissions of the driving gases and aerosols. They are also connected because the atmospheric lifecycles of common air pollutants such as CO, NOx and VOCs, and of the climatically important methane gas (CH4) and sulfate aerosols, both involve the fast photochemistry of the hydroxyl free radical (OH). Thus policies designed to address air pollution may impact climate and vice versa. We present calculations using a model coupling economics, atmospheric chemistry, climate and ecosystems to illustrate some effects of air pollution policy alone on global warming. We consider caps on emissions of NOx, CO, volatile organic carbon, and SOx both individually and combined in two ways. These caps can lower ozone causing less warming, lower sulfate aerosols yielding more warming, lower OH and thus increase CH4 giving more warming, and finally, allow more carbon uptake by ecosystems leading to less warming. Overall, these effects significantly offset each other suggesting that air pollution policy has a relatively small net effect on the global mean surface temperature and sea level rise. However, our study does not account for the effects of air pollution policies on overall demand for fossil fuels and on the choice of fuels (coal, oil, gas), nor have we considered the effects of caps on black carbon or organic carbon aerosols on climate. These effects, if included, could lead to more substantial impacts of capping pollutant emissions on global temperature and sea level than concluded here. Caps on aerosols in general could also yield impacts on other important aspects of climate beyond those addressed here, such as the regional patterns of cloudiness and precipitation.

Versión breve en español del Team Climate Inventory (TCI-14) : desarrollo y propiedades psicométricas.

Resumen tomado de la publicación

Does positive team mood mediate the relationship between team climate and team performance?

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n

Development and initial validation of the Classroom Motivational Climate Questionnaire (CMCQ)

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n

Climate change: a contemporary and geological perspective: introduction

This file describes the resouces to be made available through the Open Educational Resources 'C-change in GEES' project exploring the open licensing of climate change and sustainability resources in the Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences.

Global Climate Cycles

Level M (Master of Science) module: powerpoint lectures and a number of practicals